In any case, compared to that last Ipsos-Reid poll, the Progressive Conservatives have lost three points, but still lead with 38%. The governing Liberals are up three points to 35%, closing the gap to just inside of the 3.5 margin of error for this telephone poll.
Andrea Horwath's New Democrats are down three points to 17%, while the Greens are up two to 9%.
The Liberals are leading among voters aged 18-34, among women, university grads, and people with incomes of $30,000 or less. The PCs, on the other hand, lead among those aged over 35, those with a high school or college education, those who make more than $30,000, and among men.
The source of the Liberal gain is the Greater Toronto Area, as Dalton McGuinty's party has increased its support by 12 points. They now lead with 45%, followed by the Progressive Conservatives at 32%, down eight points. The NDP is down five points to 15%.
Another region of Liberal gain was in southwestern Ontario. The PCs are still well ahead here, however, though they are down five points to 43%. The Liberals are up three points to 24%, tied with the NDP (who are unchanged).
The Progressive Conservatives also lead in central and eastern Ontario, at 44% and 57% respectively. That's a 16 point gain for the PCs in the eastern part of the province. The Liberals are down one point to 26% in central Ontario, and are down 16 points to 25% in the east. The NDP is down four points to 18% in central Ontario.
Where Hudak's party is not doing well is in the north, where they have dropped four points to 19%. The Liberals lead here at 41%, unchanged from November, while the NDP is up five points to 34%.
This would give Hudak the slimmest of majorities. In fact, putting a PC MLA in the Speaker's chair would split the Legislative Assembly down the middle. How this would play out is unknowable, but if McGuinty resigned as leader of the party after the defeat it is likely that Hudak would be able to govern without trouble. If the race continues to be this close throughout the year, it should be an interesting campaign.