Friday, February 4, 2011

Conservatives slip in Ipsos-Reid poll

A new poll from Ipsos-Reid conducted for Global Television and Postmedia News (reported on here in full by the National Post) shows that the Conservatives have dropped from their lofty heights of early December and are back down to their habitual five-point lead.In that last poll, the Conservatives were at 39%, the highest of any of the December polls. They are now at 34%, which is probably more of a reset from the higher end of December's margin of error than anything else. The same can be said of the New Democrats, who have risen four points from 12% to 16%. The Liberals are unchanged at 29%.

The Bloc Québécois is up a point nationally to 11%, while the Greens are up one to 10% in this telephone poll.

As we've seen in other polls, the Liberals are highly competitive, and in this case leading, among women. The Conservatives hold a large lead among men, however.

The best bit of news for the Liberals in this poll comes in Ontario, where the party has gained six points and now leads with 40%. The Conservatives are down three points to 36%, while the NDP is up one to 15%. The Greens, at 8%, have lost three points.

In Quebec, the Bloc leads with 42%, up one from December. The Liberals are down six to 16%, as are the Conservatives, who have dropped to 15%. The NDP is up seven to 14%, meaning there is a huge logjam among the federalist parties, particularly when you add in the (unlikely) 12% of the Greens.

Things are far more stable in British Columbia, where the Conservatives are down two points to 42%. The Liberals and NDP are both down one point as well, to 25% and 17%. The Greens are up three to 15%.

The Conservatives lead in Atlantic Canada with 38%, while the Liberals are down 10 points to 34%. The NDP, at 22%, has gained seven points.

In Alberta, the Conservatives have dropped nine points but still lead with 56%. The Liberals are up six to 22%, while the NDP is up five to 11%.

And in the Prairies, the Conservatives are down seven points to 42%, followed by the Liberals at 30%.

With the results of this poll, I would project 24 Conservative seats in British Columbia, 26 in Alberta, 20 in the Prairies, 42 in Ontario, five in Quebec, and 11 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 129. That is 18 fewer than in my projection for Ipsos-Reid's last poll.

The Liberals would win 10 seats in British Columbia, two in Alberta, six in the Prairies, 54 in Ontario, 11 in Quebec, and 17 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 102 seats, eight more than in December.

The Bloc would win 57 seats in Quebec, up five.

The New Democrats would win two seats in British Columbia, none in Alberta, two in the Prairies, 10 in Ontario, two in Quebec, and four in Atlantic Canada for a total of 20, five more than in Ipsos-Reid's last poll.

Again, not much to say about the latest poll. It appears that voting intentions really are stuck, as they are almost all within their own MOE of my projections. The Quebec numbers may be one to watch, however. If all three of the main national parties are below 16%, the Bloc will have a field day.

Watch for a new projection for The Globe and Mail on Monday.


  1. Those Quebec numbers are certainly scary - could you imagine if we actually had those results! All federalist parties might as well hang up their coats at that point.

  2. I think there's a huge soft-BQ vote that is just parked with the BQ and would be very much up for grabs (not to mention that fact that the Green party is so moribund in Quebec that 12% is probably a 10 point over estimate). The BQ got 38% in Quebec last time and I'd be surprised if their % actually went up from that in the next election. They are a party in consistent gradual decline.

  3. Eric's point about this being a "reset" poll is quite possible.

    Different polls have featured conflicting messages about Tory momentum since Christmas.

    High polls went lower, low polls went higher. So its possible we've just been stagnant since then.

    Or its possible "mean Harper" isn't as popular as "nice Harper".

    I wouldn't mind seeing Harper try doing some Jack Layton style nice guy ads.

  4. DL,

    That's not true. They may decline some but all it takes is a slight game changer and they're back up. They actually have a fairly stable base to work off of.

    And if the federal parties are all mired amongst eachother, well, that classifies as a "game changer." And yes, they have a lot of soft vote, but so far its sticking with them, because the other parties have yet to offer something much better. "Soft" or not, its giving the Bloc a better standing than us. It will probably continue to do so for awhile now.

  5. thanks fer the analysis eric.. interesting to note the gender divide.. I always knew that women were smarter than men..
    all kidding aside I think the chances of an election in 2011 are pretty high right now..

  6. I dunno, Kevin, the NDP may cave in before then.

  7. "Or its possible "mean Harper" isn't as popular as "nice Harper". I wouldn't mind seeing Harper try doing some Jack Layton style nice guy ads."

    We already saw them try the phoney blue sweatered Harper shtick in the last election and it was a joke. You can't take a mean person and cut ads to make them look "nice" and have it seem sincere (if you can make it seem sincere then Harper should be an actor not a politician).

    Trying to make Harper out to be a nice person is like trying to have Ignatieff drop "g"s at the end of his verbs and try to seem like a man of the people - its fake!

  8. There's only about 4% of BQ support that's really up for grabs.

    The BQ's base is probably 38% which was they got in '97 and '08.

    Their ceiling seems to be around 49% as seen in '93 and '04.

    The 42% they have in this poll was their '06 result. It wouldn't be out of the question for them to attain it again.

  9. DL i'd say you're wrong on that one.

    Harper's piano performance, Harper's appearances with Rick Mercer, Harper with his kids and family - these actually go over very well with the public.

    CPC numbers approach 39 when things run smoothly, he's seen as a smiling nice guy helping out Canadian families and protecting the economy.

    Those numbers approach 32 when he's seen as a mean, hyper-partisan control freak who's busy attacking others.

    Both are true of everyone to some extent.

    I'm not a rabid partisan so I won't call Harper "mean" and leave it that.

    Its not a matter of putting on a blue sweater. That was clumsy and became a metaphor.

    But when he played the piano with school kids while wearing that blue sweater ?

    It helped him.

    So its just a matter of showing a difference side of Harper that's already there.

  10. I dunno about an n.d.p. cave in... they are showing off their brand new, state of the art war room, Layton is in good health for what could be his final campaign... Harper and flaherty are not in a compromising mood.. layton would have the most to gain from a "coalition" scenario(one where the libshave less seats than the cpc but the combined lib ndp total is more than the cpc) ..obviously it's all quite speculative but it seems to me that if the minimum objective is to hold the cpc to a weakened minority than the time and reason to do it is probably now and over the garbage $50billion in the hole prisons and fighter jet budget
    that the northern republicans are dumping on the
    citizenry.. additionally the ndp strategy of fighting hardest against ridings held by the cpc seems to fall in line with the above theorization..

  11. Is the Conservative increase of 18 seats a typo? The party seems to be down in all regions, yet they get another 18 seats in Parliament?

  12. Thanks for the catch, that is supposed to be 18 less. I will fix it.

  13. Shadow: "I'm not a rabid partisan."

    Lol. Sorry, dude - as one "rabid partisan" to another, no one is buying it.

  14. Volkov said...

    Shadow: "I'm not a rabid partisan."

    Lol. Sorry, dude - as one "rabid partisan" to another, no one is buying it.
    Man is that ever TRUE !!!

  15. Heh Volkov thanks for the good natured poke, I won't deny i'm quite partisan.

    But I don't use rabid in the sense of being a persistent advocate for ones own party.

    I use it to describe politics with a nasty edge.

    I don't think you or I qualify in that regard (usually).

    Peter I think the irony of you calling somebody out for partisanship or negativity is quite evident.

  16. Peter I think the irony of you calling somebody out for partisanship or negativity is quite evident.

    No the real irony is you saying you are anything more than a virulent partisan. Your performance belies your words.

  17. Sorry this is not relevant to this exact story but thought you might like to know.

    I was just inside Burma and tried to access your site from there. Did you know your site has been banned?

    Guess any hint at all of actual democracy is too much for the ruling generals. ....or is it something Ignatieff said?

  18. Well Peter, may our words speak for themselves.

    I have no problem with such a prospect - a little self awareness goes a long way.

  19. You know we all get totally wrapped up in our internal politics.

    But we need to step back and look at the real world !!

    The events from North Africa, and specifically, Tunisia and Egypt, show us how fortunate we are !!

  20. Does the Bloc even have a purpose anymore? My friends father said they lost their chance at secession at the last referendum. Now the youth are using English or not really caring about independence. So what are the frogs after? Autonomy?

    Help an American understand!

  21. When it comes to the Bloc I think their purpose is to represent Quebec and Quebec only. Regardless of separation, they have the goal of making things better for their province over all other considerations. Helps explain why they are so popular. We're just lucky no other region (outside of perhaps Alberta when Reform was created) has gone the same route. Just imagine if the HOC had a Bloc Ontario, Bloc BC, etc. Then things would be even messier than today I suspect.

  22. But what kind of interests are those? Is it to maintain the prominence of French culture and the bilingualism?


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