Wednesday, September 7, 2011

Hudak down to minority in new projection, updates to PEI and NL

New polls for the election races in Ontario, Newfoundland and Labrador, and Prince Edward Island were released yesterday.

In Ontario, Nanos released new numbers for CTV, The Globe and Mail, and CP24, showing the Progressive Conservatives at 35.4% to the Liberals' 31.9% and the NDP's 22.8%. This represents a significant drop for both the PCs and the Liberals (6.7 and 5.7 points, respectively) and a large gain for the NDP (up 6.6 points). The Greens stand at 4.1%, leaving an unusually large 5.8% leftover for the others.

I'm not quite sure what is going on with this poll, but if we distribute those five extra points proportionately, we end up with 37.8% for the Tories, 33.9% for the Liberals, and 24.2% for the NDP.
With this poll, the projection has swung against the Tories. They've dropped 0.3 points to 39.1% support, while the Liberals are up 0.1 points to 32.2% and the NDP is up 0.3 points to 21.9%. The Greens are down 0.2 points to 5.5%.

This results in the Progressive Conservatives dropping five seats to 50, four short of a majority government. The Liberals are up four seats to 38, while the New Democrats are up one seat to 19.

The Liberals have picked up two of their seats from the Tories in southwestern Ontario, and the other two in Toronto. This now means the Liberals are projected to win half of the seats in Toronto, and are tied with the Tories at 10 apiece in southwestern Ontario.

The New Democrats gain their seat in southwestern Ontario. They now stand at one in the region as a whole.

This is the second consecutive projection showing the Tories on the decline. Since July, they have lost 11 seats in the projection, 10 of them going to the Liberals and one to the NDP.

There are still a lot of close races in the province. The Tories lead 16 of them and trail in 14, while the Liberals lead 14 and trail in 16. The NDP now leads one of the close races, and is trailing in two others.

That puts the Progressive Conservative range at between 34 and 64 seats, the Liberals at between 24 and 54 seats, and the NDP at between 18 and 21 seats.
The chart above shows how the ranges look when stacked up against one another. This isn't a chart showing exact probability of each party winning X amount of seats, but is simply showing how the ranges overlap, or not. Obviously, any party winning all of the close races or losing all of the close races is very unlikely, which is why the chart has the seat totals nearest to the actual projection as the most probable. This chart also shows how much of the Liberal and Tory ranges are within majority territory.

Full riding projections can be found in the right-hand column or at the bottom of this post.

On to Newfoundland and Labrador, where the Corporate Research Associates peg PC support at 54%, ahead of the NDP at 24% and the Liberals at 22%. Though none of these results are outside of the margin of error in comparison to CRA's last poll in May, what is remarkable about these results is that the NDP is holding on to the support they had in that last poll. To my eyes, it looked like a possible blip. But this poll confirms that the NDP is in the race in Newfoundland and Labrador.
With the results of this poll included, the projection shows the Progressive Conservatives down 6.1 points to 61%. The Liberals are up 0.8 points to 21.1% while the NDP is up 5.4 points to 17.7%.

This shift has resulted in the Liberals picking up two seats from the Tories. The PCs now stand at 42, with the Liberals winning four and the NDP two.

The Liberals pick up one seat in the Avalon and Burin region, and another in the main part of Newfoundland.

This means that the Liberals are only being shut out of the St. John's region.

A few more races are now looking close in Newfoundland and Labrador. The Tories lead in six of them and trail in two, while the Liberals lead in two closes races and trail in three. The NDP also trails in one close race.

This puts the Tory range at between 38 and 44 seats, with the Liberals now standing at between two and seven seats and the NDP between two and three. In other words, the role of the Official Opposition is still at play.

Finally, on to Prince Edward Island. The Corporate Research Associates poll for the province shows some change, with the Liberals up eight points to 59%, the PCs down four to 31%, and the NDP down six to 7%, but nothing groundbreaking. It does seem to indicate, however, that the NDP is not surging in every part of Atlantic Canada.
The Liberals have gained 2.3 points and now lead with 56.7%. The Progressive Conservatives are down 0.3 points to 31.1%, while the New Democrats are down two points to 8.7%. The Greens are up 0.2 points to 2.9% in PEI.

This has not changed the seat projection, which still stands at 26 seats for the Liberals and one for the Progressive Conservatives.

The only thing that has changed is the Liberal range. With the Liberals up and the Tories down, the one riding held by the Progressive Conservatives is now a close riding, meaning that the Liberal range now stands at between 26 and 27 seats, or a sweep. The PC range is between zero and one seat.

Now, a little bit about how ThreeHundredEight.com will be covering the provincial campaigns.

I do not know if there will be a poll for one of the provinces released every day, but I will be updating the projection on a daily basis when there are new polls available. On days with a new projection, there will often be a second daily post on another topic as well.

Weekly Ontario projections will be featured in The Globe and Mail on Mondays, while I will also be appearing on the Téléjournal Ontario on Mondays to speak about the provincial campaign (except for this week, when I am scheduled to appear today). I will also have my usual twice-weekly articles at The Huffington Post Canada, where I will analyze some of the emerging trends of the provincial campaigns, particularly those in Atlantic Canada and the Prairies.

27 comments:

  1. It would perhaps be useful if you used CRA's untorqued numbers. They give figures as a percentage of decideds.

    Factor in as well that CRA numbers in 2007 were 20 percentage points off actual.

    Run the real numbers and see if it comes out the same. [Hint: it won't]

    ReplyDelete
  2. Every pollster reports the percentage of decided voters. I'm not sure what you're suggesting CRA is doing differently.

    ReplyDelete
  3. As I recall, CRA was very accurate in predicting the last Nova Scotia election and we don't know how good they were in NB since they stopped polling ten days before the election.

    ReplyDelete
  4. I know this question was asked before on another poll, but can you please show what the projection is based on just this poll. With the liberal and PC numbers down this much and the NDP up so high in Ontario, I am very curious to see how this would affect the seat count. If at all

    ReplyDelete
  5. Jolly Red Ontarian07 September, 2011 19:41

    This may come across as obvious, but the Ontario election is going to be decided in the GTA and Southwestern Ontario. There are many close ridings in both these areas (judging by the projection by Eric) that could go either way. Both of these areas went mostly liberal last election. And while I don't think the liberals will keep all of the seats won, I think they will walk out with a minority like around the 43-47 seat range. The PC will almost tie with them (38-42 seats) and the NDP will almost double their current MPPs (18-19 seats).

    But I could be completely off and Ontarians repeat what they did in the May election and the PCs just trounce the liberals!

    ReplyDelete
  6. I think our FPTP system and the current political climate in Ontario would allow the Tories to win a majority with as less as 36-37% of the vote, especially if the NDP vote is this high.

    I still think that McGuinty will remain premier under a minority scenario come Oct 7. The Ontario Liberal vote doesn't show signs of collapse like their federal counterparts. The Ontario Liberals are actually campaigning with teeth unlike their federal counterparts who didn't really have a sense of direction.

    I think the NDP share will fall back a few points as the election progresses. Layton's passing was only two weeks ago and it still has an effect on polling. Horwath and the NDP are hoping on banking on Layton's popularity, but I think that might backfire. Horwath's campaign tone is also more rural populist, rather than the idealistic feel-good nature of Layton's successful campaign.

    - Maple

    ReplyDelete
  7. Stolen from rabble.ca and Calgary Grit:


    If you take the raw vote totals from the last federal election in Ontario (May 2011) and the last provincial election (October 2007) and add them together, the vote share for each party isn't too far off from where they're starting the provincial election:

    PC - 38.0%, Liberal - 33.5%, NDP - 21.5%, Green - 5.8%, Others - 1.1%

    The notional results across the 107 provincial ridings would be:

    PC - 50, Liberal - 35, NDP - 22

    ReplyDelete
  8. Seems to me I was predicting a Liberal return in Ont. months ago. Looks like I called it right !!

    As soon as McGuinty started calling the PC's the "Tea Party" it was all over for Hudak !!

    ReplyDelete
  9. Anonymous,

    You know, it's traditional to wait until AFTER the election, before declaring your prediction to have been correct. You don't want to be 308's reincarnation of "Dewey defeats Truman".

    As for the "Tea Party" strategy, that doesn't strike me as much of a winner (it's right up there with Ernie Eve's "kitten-eating martian" attack from 2003). It's curious, though, that the Liberals have dumped the "Hudak = Harris" line of attack(which they were using as late as last springand which has the merit of being credible). Could it be that, since they're now running the biggest deficits since Bob Rae, comparing Hudak with Harris doesn't look like all that great an idea? Just putting it out there.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Do you know what the seat count would be if you only used the last two CRA polls for NL?

    ReplyDelete
  11. (it's right up there with Ernie Eve's "kitten-eating martian" attack from 2003).

    And the REALLY funny part !! Eves seriously attacked the Hudak party just recently. They are on a slippery slope down !!

    ReplyDelete
  12. Gee, if the Liberals are hanging their hats on Eve's August 30th quote in the local Ottawa paper (or his subsequent, and more retrained comments on AM 640 in Toronto), they're really stretching. Have you heard the clip? (Warren Kinsella's blog is torqueing it for all it's worth - which isn't much). To call it a "serious attack" on either Hudak or the PC party is laughable - which is probably why it hasn't been picked up outside of the blogeshere.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Are you going to mention the new Harris-Decima poll? It actually shows the liberals with an 11-point lead! If this is true, this is a huge turnaround for McGuinty

    ReplyDelete
  14. I wondered who would bring that poll up first?? Thanks

    Now let's watch the CPC Trolls wiggle and squirm

    ReplyDelete
  15. An odd poll. I think I need something more official before considering it. The last three polls from Forum, Nanos, and Angus-Reid were all in the field on some of the same days as this poll.

    ReplyDelete
  16. I know it seems a little fishy to me too. With every other poll showing that the libs are simply gaining on the PC, whereas this apparent Harris-decima poll not only shows that the libs are closing the gap, but are leading by a decent margin.

    All I'm saying is that if this is true, than as said, it is a huge turnaround. I only found it on wikipedia's page for this election, which has a link to Ontario news watch. I don't know, it could be true!

    ReplyDelete
  17. It could, but it was done for a private organization. Was the voting intentions question tacked on at the end of a survey that included a lot of other questions, specific to this particular event? We don't know - unless it is reported by Harris-Decima or in the media, not as a "leaked" poll, I won't be including it.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Hey Eric

    It was done for the CBC, at least it was on tonights Power & Politics.

    But don't worry, you can IGNORE reality !!

    ReplyDelete
  19. Ah, now that is different. I just watched the stream of P&P, and Harris-Decima presented those numbers. We're not talking about a "leaked" poll anymore.

    If HD is standing behind their numbers, then I will certainly include the poll.

    But there's no need to be rude.

    ReplyDelete
  20. McGuinty has done a good job and everyone in my family (except my paternal grandmother who votes for the NDP) will be voting for the Liberals because Hudak just doesn't look like the trustworthy leader we expect in the Premier's Office.

    On an unrelated note, it appears that in the Manitoba riding projection, the winner (NDP) of "Fort Richmond" appears to not be highlighted like the other ridings.

    -AW

    ReplyDelete
  21. the sample size is 650 in the HD poll, and with the time period coinciding with other polls that totally disagree with it, I think that maybe it's the 1 time out of 20 that a poll fails. Might I suggest waiting until another poll comes out that validates the results before including it in your projection?

    ReplyDelete
  22. I am stunned that the Ontario Liberals are polling at 40%, while the NDP vote is still strong at 24%.

    It looks like we may have right-wing voters staying home like they did in the last election.

    The campaign just started, so there is still a month where anything can happen. But if poll numbers stay consistent, Tim Hudak would do be doing worse than Ernie Eves and John Tory.

    - Maple

    ReplyDelete
  23. Bryan

    Even if a poll is affected by small number statistics, it still has non-zero information; it's still roughly half as good as the ~2000 people polls. Unless the polling methodology is wrong - but it's probably not (H-D is pretty reputable). Eric weights low responder number polls in some fashion (which I'd guess is sensible, I'm not sure).

    Regards,
    Brian

    ReplyDelete
  24. From the Globe piece of today.

    "The telephone survey included a relatively small sample size of 650 and was conducted between Aug. 26 and Sept. 6. However, Mr. Anderson said answers to the questions were consistent over the nearly two-week period, suggesting, he said, that voters may not be happy with some of the things the governing Liberals have done, but they are not upset enough to want a Conservative government. "

    Which says it all IMO

    ReplyDelete
  25. so much anonymity... the globe can write what it wants and you can believe what you want about the poll. I'll continue to believe what I stated above until we see another poll corroborating the results.

    ReplyDelete
  26. It is interesting to see Hudak be the 2nd straight PC leader to shoot himself in the foot when a win should've been a cakewalk.

    The NDP is who I'm watching closely this time. Their 20% rebate if you hire a new person should be a big vote getter, especially vs what the Liberals & PC's are doing (incentives to hire immigrants). If they can do well in the debate I'd watch out for 1990 to repeat.

    Not something I want, but that is what I see in the way this election is going.

    ReplyDelete

COMMENT MODERATION POLICY - Please be respectful when commenting. If choosing to remain anonymous, please sign your comment with some sort of pseudonym to avoid confusion. Please do not use any derogatory terms for fellow commenters, parties, or politicians. Inflammatory and overly partisan comments will not be posted. PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION ON TOPIC.