Yesterday, the QMI Agency's network of newspapers released the results of a new Léger Marketing poll for Ontario, with one glaring error.
QMI reported Progressive Conservative support at 36%, Liberal support at 33%, and NDP support at 29%. That was wrong - the New Democrats were actually at 26% in the poll, with the Greens at 5% (rather than 2%).
As this poll echoed yesterday's projection almost exactly, there have been few changes. So let's take a look at this poll in depth before getting to today's projection.
This is the same statistically insignificant lead that we've now seen in four of the last five provincial polls. The race is neck-and-neck between the Liberals and the Tories, but the New Democrats are slowly creeping upwards.
Regionally, it is difficult to take much from this poll. No pollsters divide Ontario in the same way, and Léger uses the inscrutable "Western Ontario" and "Southern Ontario" regions. I imagine Western Ontario is generally what the other polls calls Central Ontario, because of the high Green result, while Southern Ontario is the standard Southwestern Ontario. How the boundaries compare, however, I cannot say.
Some of the results are odd, like the NDP leading in Eastern Ontario and a three-way race in Northern Ontario (though, if you include the area down to Lake Simcoe in Northern Ontario, it isn't so odd). What the regionals do show, however, is just how close the race is. In all but Southern and Western Ontario, the three parties are in a statistical tie.
On leadership, the advantage lies with the Liberals. Dalton McGuinty topped the poll as the first choice for premier with 28%, followed closely by Tim Hudak at 26%. The NDP is still having some trouble getting Andrea Horwath out there, as she stands at 14%. This is the opposite of what we have seen at the federal level, where Jack Layton always outpaced support for his own party.
That represents a drop of 0.3 points for the Tories and 0.4 points for the Liberals. The NDP has gained 0.6 points since yesterday. The Greens are unchanged.
Blogger has changed the way images are viewed. For the most part, I think it is an improvement but only if you don't need to magnify the image, as you must with the Riding Projections. One solution to this problem is to open the image in a new window (you can right-click to choose that option), but the best solution is to click on the Riding Projections image at the top of the right-hand column. That is always up to date.