Friday, September 30, 2011

NDP gains in Manitoba and PEI, Selinger and Ghiz on track for re-election

Yesterday, I was alerted to a poll that was released by MarketQuest Omnifacts Research for Prince Edward Island. This is the same firm which broke the ice in the Newfoundland and Labrador campaign. Few media outlets picked up the poll, but I have the details and so the Prince Edward Island projection has been updated.

But before getting to the MQO poll and PEI, let's take a look at the new poll by Probe Research for the Winnipeg Free Press.

The telephone survey, taken between September 21 and 28 (and so dipping its toe into the survey dates of both the Viewpoints Research and Environics polls) and interviewing 1,000 Manitobans, found that 46% support Greg Selinger's New Democrats, with another 43% intending to vote for the Progressive Conservatives.

The Liberals stood at 7%, while the Greens are at 4%.

Considering the margin of error, this is no change at all since Probe's last poll from the end of June which put the NDP and PCs tied at 44% and the Liberals at 9%. But coupled with the polls from Viewpoints and Environics, we can say that the NDP is ahead.

They are particularly ahead in Winnipeg, with 53% to 35% for the Tories. Outside of the city, the vote intentions are flipped: 54% for the Tories and 34% for the NDP. A big problem for the PCs is that in Winnipeg they only lead in the southwestern part of the city, and there by a statistically insignificant three points. It doesn't seem that the Tories will have much luck in the city.

It's worth noting how the polls have changed over time in Manitoba. PC support has been remarkably consistent, hovering between 40% and 47% for at least a year. But the NDP has taken off, standing in the mid-40s after being in the mid-30s in the spring. And the Liberals have sunk below the symbolic 10% mark.
With this poll, which I suspect will be the last of the campaign, the New Democrats are projected to win 44.7% of the vote, with the Progressive Conservatives taking 43.3%.

The Liberals take 8.1% of the vote while the Greens take 3.5%.

This is a gain of 1.6 points for the NDP since the September 27 projection, and a loss of 0.6 points for the Tories. The Liberals are down 1.5 points while the Greens are up 0.6.

This has not resulted in any seat changes. The New Democrats are projected to win 36 seats, the Tories 20, and the Liberals one.

With the NDP gain, several seats have dropped out of the PCs' range. Only one Tory seat and one NDP are now considered close, putting the NDP range at between 35 and 37 seats and the PC range at between 19 and 21 seats.

The NDP's advantage in Winnipeg is extraordinarily important, as the city has over half of Manitoba's ridings.

Now to Prince Edward Island. The poll by MarketQuest Omnifacts was taken both over the telephone and online between September 23 and 25. Surveying 411 people, the poll is smaller and somewhat older than The Guardian's poll by CRA. But the results are not much different.

MQO found that Liberal support in PEI stood at 53%, exactly the same as the CRA poll. It differed on PC support, pegging them at 32%, and NDP support, finding them at 12%. The Greens stood at 3%.

The NDP level of support is problematic, as they aren't running a full slate of candidates. And this is where we run into a problem - how to adjust for something like that? Should we assume that survey respondents don't know whether or not an NDP candidate is running in their riding? Certainly many, maybe the majority, are aware of this and so the voting intentions number may not inaccurate. It is a bit of a puzzle, but in any case it is unlikely that the NDP will play a big role in Monday's election.
With this poll, the Liberals are now projected to win 52.9% of the vote, down 0.2 points since yesterday's projection.

The Progressive Conservatives are down 1.9 points to 34.2%, while the New Democrats are up 3.1 points to 8.1%. The Greens are down 0.9 points to 4.1%.
The seat projection has not changed: 26 seats for the Liberals and one for the Tories. The seat ranges are also unchanged: 25 to 26 seats for the Liberals and one to two seats for the Progressive Conservatives.

14 comments:

  1. Very helpful, Eric

    Do you expect to see any more polls from Newfoundland and Labrador? CRA's recent poll was in the timeframe that they always come out, i.e., once a quarter. Will they come out with another in front of election day? Are there others in the works?

    Amateur Psephologist

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  2. MQO said they will release another NL poll, and I'm sure NTV will weigh-in. That leaves CRA, and I'm not sure if the Telegram will be ordering a poll from them or not.

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  3. portage & main30 September, 2011 13:28

    Eric - count me as skeptical about your Manitoba projections. I appreciate the modelling you've done, but I think it overestimates NDP strength. If the popular vote really is as close as your vote projection suggests, the Tories are going to win more than 20 seats. Their vote is concentrated, but no worse than the NDP vote in the north and the north end of Winnipeg.

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  4. how about the ontario election?the great debate has come and gone and still nothing said...could this be interpreted that things are not looking so good for dalton and co.?...

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  5. Mahanna Ali,

    The first Ontario poll since the debate only came out this afternoon, and didn't show any change. I'll update the projection over the weekend.

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  6. The MQO NL poll shows the Liberals way, way down, to the tune of 13% to 33 NDP and 54% PC:
    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/story/2011/09/30/nl-election-poll-930.html

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  7. As a former PEI NDP candidate: people have no clue if they have no NDP candidate.

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  8. There may be one more Manitoba poll.

    An Angus Reid Online (Vision Critical) poll of Manitoba closes at midnight tonight.

    No idea of their intended release date.

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  9. Ontario: Globe late post.

    "The Liberals are in the lead, with 37.7 per cent support, revealing that they have erased the gap since the campaign began on Sept. 6 with the PCs in first place. The Tories have 34.4 per cent of the support and the New Democrats 25.5 per cent."

    Nanos poll

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  10. A SunMedia/Ledger Poll shows the Ontario race as a dead heat with Tories 34, Liberals 32 and NDP 29. Apparently it seems like Horwath had a small boost from the debates.

    I think Tim Hudak lost his majority when he cried out "foreign workers". Moreover, he didn't do much in the campaign other than criticize McGuinty. Even a center-left vote split won't propel Hudak to a majority, as his support is that low.

    Unfortunately, our electoral system and current geo-political climate will likely over represent the Tories/Liberals and severely underrepresent the NDP (who will likely win only 20-22 seats when garnering 26-29% of the vote).

    - Maple

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  11. WIth all of these provincial elections happening in such a close time span, one wonders if results in one province will somehow affect the results in another, and how if such a thing happens?

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  12. The report on that Leger poll does not mention the sample size, the dates of polling, or Green support. Wonderful!

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  13. New Angus-Reid poll is out for Ontario: 34, 33, 26% for PC, Lib, NDP. The biggest change they see is that the Liberal support dramatically solidified (from 56 to 70%), and is now more solid than for PC (69%).

    http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/44064/progressive-conservatives-and-liberals-are-virtually-tied-in-ontario/

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