After less than a week on the campaign trail, the race for the Ontario premiership is as tight as it gets. With polls showing leads for both the Progressive Conservatives and the Liberals, the election is, at this early stage, a toss-up. But were an election held today, Queen’s Park would be more divided than it’s been in more than 25 years.
Based on a weighted aggregation of the latest polls, ThreeHundredEight.com’s seat projection model puts the Progressive Conservatives and Liberals on track to win 44 seats apiece, with the New Democrats taking the remaining 19 seats in the 107-seat Legislature. With even numbers in the caucuses of both Dalton McGuinty and Tim Hudak, the NDP would be in a position to decide which man becomes Ontario’s next premier.
You can read the rest of the article on The Globe and Mail website, here, including discussion of regional breakdown and ranges.
But to give you a taste, six seats switched from the Progressive Conservatives to the Liberals since last week's projection. Two of them were in Toronto, while one each were in the GTA, Ottawa, and the southwestern and central parts of the province.
I'll be speaking on the Téléjournal Ontario tonight. It airs at 6:00 PM in most of the province, and 11:00 PM in the Ottawa area. If you have a satellite or digital cable you can probably find it even if you don't live in the province.