Friday, September 9, 2011

NDP poised to make history in Newfoundland and Labrador

The New Democrats are looking to make a splash in Atlantic Canada following their stunning success in May's federal election, and in at least one province they might just pull it off.

But the effects of the orange wave and the outpouring of sympathy in the wake Jack Layton's death has been a little uneven.

In Newfoundland and Labrador’s upcoming October vote, the NDP under Lorraine Michael is poised to make history. The New Democrats have never won more than two seats in any provincial election on the Rock, and their vote share has only been in the double-digits once, in 1985.

The timing of the provincial election is good for the NDP leader. In May's federal election, the party took almost one-third of the vote and easily won the two ridings in St. John's. Jack Harris, former Newfoundland and Labrador NDP leader, took his seat with 71 per cent of the vote, while Ryan Cleary was elected with 48 per cent. Outside of the city, however, the NDP was not much of a factor.

You can read the rest of the article on The Huffington Post Canada website here.

The Corporate Research Associates polls for Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland and Labrador have already been included in the projection model. Word from the Atlantic is that there will be few polls during these campaigns, but let's hope these rumours are unfounded.

The poll released yesterday by Harris-Decima for Ontario is not yet included in the projection for the province, but will be in Monday's projection for The Globe and Mail, so keep an eye out for that.

1 comment:

  1. Are you using more than one set of CRA data to feed your projection?


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