Friday, October 14, 2011

Greens take a hit provincially

This year has been a bit of a mixed bag for the Green Party.

On the one hand, they elected their first Member of Parliament when Elizabeth May beat Conservative cabinet minister Gary Lunn in the riding of Saanich-Gulf Islands on May 2.

On the other hand, the party lost votes federally and took a hit in this fall’s provincial elections. 

You can read the rest of the article on The Huffington Post Canada website here.

How might the Greens do in Saskatchewan? According to my latest projection from early September, they stand to take about 4% of the vote in the November 7 election. That would be an increase on the 2% they took in the 2007 election, but I imagine that number may be driven down as the campaign goes on - assuming we get some polls out of the province.

One of the things the Greens may be able to do in Saskatchewan is supplant the Liberals for third. The Greens are already a third-place party in Prince Edward Island and were in British Columbia in 2009. I imagine, though, they will lose that spot in BC due to the support of John Cummins' BC Conservatives.

People still care about the environment, but in a time of economic uncertainty it takes a bit of a back seat. When confronted with two product choices of equal cost, people will always take the greener one. But when they aren't the same price, most people will take the cheaper one. This is, undoubtedly, compounded in a time like this. The Greens may recover in better times and in 2015 Elizabeth May might be able to use her seat as a platform to win a second or a third, but I wonder if the Greens peaked in the federal and provincial elections between 2007 and 2009.