Monday, October 10, 2011

Last polls of campaign still show PCs dominant, NDP over-achieving in NL

On Tuesday, Newfoundland and Labrador voters are expected to give the Progressive Conservatives their third consecutive mandate since 2003 – and a first under the leadership of Premier Kathy Dunderdale. While there is little doubt about the make-up of the next government in Newfoundland and Labrador, how the opposition parties will fare is the big question heading into election day. 

For the first time in their history, Newfoundland New Democrats are running second in the polls and are on track to form the Official Opposition. The Liberals, who have governed the province for most of its post-Confederation history, are a distant third but may have enough pockets of strength in the rural parts of the island to come out ahead of Lorraine Michael’s NDP.

You can read the rest of the article on The Globe and Mail website here. Complete details of the new projection can be found in the article.

The last two polls of the campaign in Newfoundland and Labrador, from Environics and Corporate Research Associates, show very little change from what MQO Research and NTV/Telelink have found to be the case. In short, the Tories are still well ahead, the New Democrats have a lock on second, and the Liberals are floundering below 20% support.

It's the regional data that is interesting. Environics has NDP and PC support at 47% apiece in St. John's, with the Liberals trailing at 6%. From my estimates of what was gleaned from The Telegram's reports, CRA has support for the PCs at 60% in St. John's, with the NDP at 31% and the Liberals at 9%. Those would, of course, have very different outcomes on election night.

In the rest of Newfoundland and Labrador, Environics has PC support at 54% to 28% for the NDP and 18% for the Liberals. That is actually a very good showing for the New Democrats. CRA broke it down into the west (Labrador, west coast, central Newfoundland) and the east (east and northeast coasts), showing the Progressive Conservatives leading in the west with 57% and in the east with 61%, with the Liberals second in the west (28%) and third in the east (16%). The NDP was third in the west with 15% and second in the east with 23%.

So, what this breaks down to is the Tories dominating everywhere, but that the NDP and Liberals have enough pockets of support to be competitive in several ridings. Where those seats will be will be interesting to watch on Tuesday night.

I don't expect any new numbers to come out, but I will post the final projection for Newfoundland and Labrador on Tuesday morning.

1 comment:

  1. Thanks for providing Environics's numbers for St. John's, as I only could find CRA's. I think the primary difficulty in assessing CRA's and Environics's differing numbers for St. John's is how each pollster defines St. John's. From my reading of The Telegram article, CRA regards "St. John's" as not just the city of St. John's and suburban Mount Pearl but also the whole of the Avalon Peninsula. This really changes things, because the NDP got 19% in St. John's proper in 2007 yet only 11% or so in the whole St. John's-Avalon region, meaning that the 31% for the NDP in "St. John's" according to CRA is much more impressive than it sounds. The much tighter gap between the PCs and NDP in St. John's in the Environics poll leads me to believe that they are referring only to St. John's proper. However, in an election where a party is surging to over three times its previous level of support, a lot of wildcards are at play. Should make for an interesting night despite an otherwise predictable overall outcome!


COMMENT MODERATION POLICY - Please be respectful when commenting. If choosing to remain anonymous, please sign your comment with some sort of pseudonym to avoid confusion. Please do not use any derogatory terms for fellow commenters, parties, or politicians. Inflammatory and overly partisan comments will not be posted. PLEASE KEEP DISCUSSION ON TOPIC.