Sunday, November 1, 2009

And the winner is...

Gérald Tremblay, with about 37% of the vote. Louise Harel finishes a close second with about 33%. Richard Bergeron, with about 26%, helped split the opposition vote with Harel. So, no change in Montreal.

Régis Labeaume in Quebec City was elected with about 80% of the vote. No surprise there.

Gilles Vaillancourt will remain as mayor of Laval, with about 61% of the vote.

Caroline St-Hillare, former Bloc MP, will be mayor of Longueuil with about 53%.

In Gatineau, I was wrong to say Gravel was in the race. He wasn't. But Marc Bureau will continue to be mayor, with about 44% of the vote.

Finally, in Saguenay Jean Tremblay won with 78%.

The race for the mayorship of Sherbrooke is very, very close. At the moment of writing, Bernard Sévigny is ahead of Hélène Gravel by 0.1 points!


  1. Eric,

    is anybody drawing broader conclusions from these results? There doesn't exactly seem to be a wave of anti-incumbency out there. Then again, local races usually don't tell us all that much about the larger political climate because they hinge around local issues.

  2. Goaltender Interference02 November, 2009 09:58

    The final results were not even close to that La Presse poll taken a few days before the election. Can this be solely attributed to low turnout (ie., Tremblay brought out a significant portion of his vote and Bergeron didn't)?
    Or is it more realistic to say that people who had no intention of voting just told the pollsters they would vote for Bergeron (or Harel) for some reason? What did the pollsters do to filter out non-voters from their results, and how did it go so wrong?

  3. I suspect that polling in municipal elections with very low turnouts is a very tricky business. The final poll was pretty accurate about Harel's support, but was too low for Tremblay and too high for Bergeron. Bergeron had almost no organization or party apparatus in most of the city and therefore could not turn out his vote - while Tremblay apparently had a one million dollar GOTV budget. It may be that stories at the end about Bergeron being a bit of a flake might have made people think twice of voting for him and so it became a case of the devil you know vs. the devil you don't.


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