Monday, November 30, 2009

Quebec Provincial Poll

Le Devoir released a new Léger Marketing poll on Monday. The Parti Québécois has opened up a lead over the Quebec Liberals greater than the margin of error, a significant point in what has been a very close public opinion race since the December 2008 election. The PQ's lead is built largely on the francophone vote. They have 47% of francophones behind them, compared to only 29% for the Liberals. As francophones are the deciding factor in the vast majority of Quebec seats, this means a lot of wins for the PQ outside of Montreal.

The Action Démocratique du Québec, which has been going through internal turmoil for the past few months, is at only 8%, roughly half of last year's electoral score. Québec Solidaire and the Quebec Greens (PVQ) are tied at 7% apiece, though they usually tend to over-achieve in polls, especially in the case of the PVQ as they don't run in every riding.

The PQ leads in the Montreal region, 41% to 37%, with QS in third with 8%. In the Quebec City region, the PQ leads as well, with 34% to 28%. The ADQ only shows life here, with 26% support. So there are three-way races there.

Jean Charest of the Liberals is the favourite for Premier, but only at 29%. Pauline Marois of the PQ follows at 26%, Amir Khadir of QS is at 8%, and Guy Rainville of the PVQ is at 1%.

In terms of seats, this would give the Parti Québécois 67 seats and a majority government. The Liberals would win 54, the ADQ would be reduced to two seats, the QS would gain one seat and win two overall.

The big question will be whether the PQ can maintain this lead until the next election in 2012-2013. Charest is a slippery character and always seems to come back whenever he is down.

10 comments:

  1. Is there any particular reason you chose to colour PQ with the Conservative blue and ADQ with the BQ teal?

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  2. Where's Jesse?

    This is excellent news for the Conservatives!

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  3. Anon @ 16.29

    I see your fascination with my commentary has reached the point where you are responding to me before I even write something.

    This poll is actually quite dissapointing. The true Conservative option is, of course, the ADQ and yet they are imploding.

    Harper has thrown his lot in with various provincial Liberals during these tough times which is wise enough I suppose - hang together or hang alone.

    Perhaps when Harper has his majority he can throw Charest under the bus and free his team up to help rebuild the ADQ.

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  4. Dark blue for the PQ and light blue for the ADQ is generally used as the colours for the two parties, with some variation of course. Nothing meant by it.

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  5. Questions:

    -Can we conclude that it has mostly been the PQ who has benefitted from the ADQ meltdown?

    -With the drop in ADQ support, has the PQ regained its big advantage in vote efficiency, ie., the PQ could come in second place in votes by 3-4% and still win a majority of seats?

    -Can we conclude that the ADQ meltdown has reached bottom, and they are now settling in at 8-10%?

    -Could we be seeing the developments of regional microparties in Quebec: the ADQ competitive only in Quebec City and surrounding areas, and QS competitive only in eastern Montreal?

    - The Greens are at 7% with an obscure leader and so little organization that they can't find candidates for 1/3 of seats. Is there anyone in Quebec that could realistically lead this party and transform this group into a real political force?

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  6. Some answers:

    ---- "Can we conclude that it has mostly been the PQ who has benefitted from the ADQ meltdown?"

    Hard to say, but most likely. The ADQ is a nationalist party and no doubt a lot of disillusioned ADQ voters are going back to their traditional nationalist option.

    ---- "With the drop in ADQ support, has the PQ regained its big advantage in vote efficiency, ie., the PQ could come in second place in votes by 3-4% and still win a majority of seats?"

    It certainly does aid the PQ, as a few of the ADQ "breakthrough" regions were traditionally PQ supporting regions. This means they will have a much higher chance of taking seats in Monteregie, the Laurentides, and Mauricie, for example.

    ---- "Can we conclude that the ADQ meltdown has reached bottom, and they are now settling in at 8-10%?"

    Yes, I don't expect them to go down much further than this. The ADQ is still popular in Quebec City and the Beauce region. It doesn't appear that this will change as the Conservative support there helps the ADQ (rather than the other way around only a few years ago!).

    ---- "Could we be seeing the developments of regional microparties in Quebec: the ADQ competitive only in Quebec City and surrounding areas, and QS competitive only in eastern Montreal?"

    No, I wouldn't say that. QS isn't exactly competitive in Montreal, there are still a fringe party. They have a better chance of electing another MNA now that Khadir has gotten in and has been decent. I don't think we'll see them winning more than two seats any time soon, though. As for the ADQ, aside from the 2007 election they were always a regional micro-party. But they aren't exactly a party of their particular region. They don't push Beauce and Quebec City issues specifically.

    ---- "The Greens are at 7% with an obscure leader and so little organization that they can't find candidates for 1/3 of seats. Is there anyone in Quebec that could realistically lead this party and transform this group into a real political force?"

    Not really. The Greens have been polling this high for a few years. They are one of those "other" options people choose when they are tired of the others parties. Come election time, they can't do better than 4% and never do very well in any one riding. This is the same issue the national Greens have.

    Interestingly, the one region of Quebec that the Greens did better than others is in Western Montreal. They put in some anglophone candidates there, and it seems a lot of the voters who did not want to throw their support behind the provincial Liberals (again!) put their support behind the Parti Vert. If they transformed themselves into more of an anglophone party that also pushed environmental policies, they could make some ground on the West Island.

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  7. Although I am not a Quebecer, from what I observe from Ontario is that I suspect the reason that the ADQ still has some popularity in the Quebec and Beauce region, is that findamentally people in that region dislike the establishment of Montreal with the provincial Liberals, and are not enthusiastically Seperatist nor Socialist to support the PQ.

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  8. In other words the Quebec Green Party could reinvent itself as Quebec Solidaire minus the support for sovereignty.

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  9. Hi Eric.

    Just thought you'd be interested in this NB Provincial Poll on the CBC website:

    http://www.cbc.ca/canada/new-brunswick/story/2009/12/01/nb-poll-tories-support-grows-410.html

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