Thursday, November 12, 2009

Projection: 140 CPC, 92 LPC, 49 BQ, 27 NDP

Only one poll this week, so no major changes. But new polls replace old polls, and the weight of new polls makes old polls less important, so every little bit makes a difference.The Conservatives gain one seat and are now at 140. The Liberals lose one and are now at 92. The Bloc and NDP remain steady at 49 and 27 seats, respectively. Very little movement in the popular vote, as the Liberals lose only 0.1 points and the Greens gain 0.1 points.

A mixed update for the Conservatives, who lose 0.2 points in Alberta and the Prairies and 0.1 points in British Columbia. They gain 0.2 points in Quebec and Atlantic Canada and 0.1 points in the North. They also gain a seat in Ontario, though they remain stuck at 39.1%.

The Liberals are down a little bit everywhere except in Alberta. They're down 0.3 points in Quebec, 0.2 points in the North and the Prairies, and 0.1 points in Ontario and Atlantic Canada. Their seat loss comes in Ontario.

The NDP is either steady or making gains. Their support hasn't changed in Alberta, Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada. They've made a gain of 0.3 points in the Prairies and 0.1 points in the North and British Columbia.

The Bloc is unchanged. The Greens make gains of 0.3 points in Quebec, 0.2 points in the Prairies and Alberta, and 0.1 points in Ontario and British Columbia.

Things seem to be solidifying at their current level, which is getting closer and closer to the 2008 result. The Liberals have seemed to hit their floor, the Conservatives are falling back from their highs, and the NDP is clawing its way back up to 2008 levels.