Friday, November 6, 2009

Projection: 139 CPC, 93 LPC, 49 BQ, 27 NDP

There's only been one poll released since last week's update, but with the passing of a month the weight of older polls has been reduced, which results in some changes:The Conservatives pick up one seat and are now at 139. The Liberals lose one and are at 93. The NDP and Bloc remain steady at 27 and 49 seats, respectively. The Liberals have lost 0.3 points nationally, 0.2 of them going to the Conservatives and 0.1 going to the NDP.

The seat gain for the Tories comes in British Columbia, from the Liberals. The Conservatives have gained 0.5 points in that province, and 0.3 points each in Alberta, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada. They've dropped 0.3 points in the Prairies, however.

The Liberals did not gain any ground anywhere. They lost 0.4 points each in British Columbia and Quebec, 0.2 points in Alberta, and 0.1 points each in the Prairies, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada.

The New Democrats made some progress this week. They gained 0.3 points each in the Prairies and Quebec and 0.2 points each in British Columbia and Ontario. They lost 0.1 points in Atlantic Canada, and remained steady in Alberta.

The Bloc is up 0.2 points in Quebec. The Greens lost ground everywhere except in Quebec, where they were steady. They lost 0.1 points each in Alberta, the Prairies, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada. They lost 0.3 points in British Columbia.

So, a good week for the Conservatives, NDP, and Bloc Quebecois. A bad week, again, for the Liberals but also the Greens.