Thursday, November 19, 2009

Gun Control Poll from EKOS

EKOS, as part of their "viewer question" series of polls, has a new one out asking people about the long gun registry and gun ownership.

In general, Canadians give a slight edge to banning the long gun registry (but there is a huge "don't know" group), but are also in favour of banning gun ownership in its entirety and banning gun ownership in urban areas.

But looking behind the numbers, we get an idea of party support between November 11 and November 17. EKOS asked respondents who they would vote for in addition to how they felt about guns in order to get an idea of how particular party supporters feel about gun ownership and the long gun registry. Using those numbers from a pool of 2,517 decided voters, we get:

Conservatives - 38.1%
Liberals - 26.6%
New Democrats - 14.5%
Greens - 10.6%
Bloc Quebecois - 10.3%

Now, take those numbers with a grain of salt, as I don't believe EKOS weighted the regional results the same they do for a normal national poll.

Anyway, as to the actual topic, we find that the supporters of the four opposition parties are far closer to each other than they are to the Conservatives.

On abolishing the long gun registry, 56% of Conservatives saw it should be, while only 20% say it shouldn't. The next highest supporters of abolishing the registry are NDP supporters at 35% (29% opposed), then the Greens at 29% (32% opposed), the Liberals at 27% (47% opposed), and the Bloc (20% to 47%). I find it surprising that NDP supporters are more for abolishing the registry than they are against it.

One other thing to look at is the undecided group. Among them, 33% are for abolishing and 25% are against. What does that mean? Undecideds are more in line with the NDP then either the Liberals or the Conservatives - at least on this issue.

Outlawing guns in urban areas gets a lot of support, even from Conservatives (51% to 38% opposed). It gets highest support among Liberals (76% to 18% opposed) and Bloc Quebecois supporters (74% to 21% opposed). NDP and Green supporters see eye to eye on this issue, with 67% and 66%, respectively, for outlawing guns in urban areas.

Undecideds, at 61% for and 25% against, are somewhere in between. It is interesting to note that on gun control issues, the Conservatives and the Liberals (or at least their supporters) are diametrically opposed.

As for outlawing guns in their entirety, Liberals and Bloc voters are most for the idea (67% and 66% to 33% and 34%, respectively). NDP and Green supporters are also in favour (58% and 54% to 42% and 46%, respectively). Here again, Conservative supporters are alone on the issue, with 38% in favour of outlawing guns and 62% against. Undecideds are split down the middle, 54% to 46%.

So, apparently, on gun control the argument is between the Tories and everyone else.