Thursday, November 5, 2009

New Ekos Poll: 10.4-pt Conservative Lead

EKOS has their weekly poll out. This gives me the opportunity to show you guys my new way for presenting polling information.As EKOS points out, the Conservative and Liberal results closely match their results in 2008. The NDP is down and the Greens are up, but on voting day some of that vote will leak to Jack Layton's party. So, this more or less matches 2008. A year has passed, and nothing's changed!

Some of the regional results are worth repeating. In British Columbia, it appears that both the Tories and the NDP are moving up while the Liberals are moving down. This means we're likely to see a very close race in New Westminster-Coquitlam on November 9.

In Ontario, the gap is now six points. The Conservatives are down below 40% and the Liberals are keeping themselves above 30%. The NDP is still really under-performing, however.

In Atlantic Canada, we've been seeing the Conservatives making gains and the race is now a close one. We're unlike to see any ABC campaign by Danny Williams this time around, so the contest in this part of the country will be heated.

This poll would result in the following seat totals:

Conservatives - 146
Liberals - 83
Bloc Quebecois - 50
New Democrats - 29

So, a few extra seats for Stephen Harper while the Liberals benefit a little bit from stronger results in British Columbia, Alberta, and Ontario. The NDP still loses eight of the seats they held on election night, while the Bloc picks-up one.

The Conservatives win 72 seats in the West, 55 in Ontario, 8 in Quebec, and 10 in Atlantic Canada. The Liberals win 10 seats in the West, 39 in Ontario, 15 in Quebec, and 17 in Atlantic Canada. The NDP take 10 seats in the West, 12 in Ontario, 2 in Quebec, and 5 in Atlantic Canada.

This is, actually, a disappointing result for the Conservatives. They were polling in the 39% to 41% range, or on the cusp of a majority. This actually puts them down, though their dip and the Liberal uptick is both within the MOE. What seems clear, however, is that the movement has stopped and is starting to go back to normal levels.

A projection update will probably come tomorrow, but with only one poll things won't change too much.

UPDATE - As requested, and since this poll is being lauded as the same as the 2008 election, here are the results of that election in the same style of graph as in the polling information above. Open them both in separate tabs, and you can compare easily.


  1. You should try using your model to project what the popular vote will be in each of the four byelections on Monday and then we'll see how predictive it is.

  2. I'm not going to step into that minefield of local issues and low turnout.

  3. same national number... but it is not quite the same.

    (very nice graphs by the way. I prefer the graphical depiction very much)

    not quite the same tho. for example in atlantic canada the tories and the liberals sit tied at 33%. But the liberals average at election was much higher. (closer to 37% I think). But the liberals score 18 in alberta, up from 11 at election time.

    Is there any way you could use your graphical depiction of this weeks poll to compare to last elections? It would be interesting to see where the regional ups and downs compare despite the national number being the same.

  4. wow you are fast.

    so I am seeing basically that the greens are higher everwhere than they get at election (like always).

    The tories and libs are where they are nationally, but the NDP is down 2 still.

    And other significant stuff:

    Libs up 7, NDP down 3

    Libs up 3, NDP down 4, Tories down 2

    Tories down 2 (but only the greens up)

    Tories up 4, liberals and NDP both down 2

    So with all that, wondering if the NDP seat in Alberta falls and maybe the liberals pick up one or 2.

    Liberals might have a pickup in the prairies at the expense of the tories.

    And the tories might pick up a couple in the Atlantic at the expense of the other major parties.

    So even with an almost identical result there is neat things to watch.

  5. I like the new graphs. It's a good way of summarizing the poll in a compact and visual manner. A thought would be to combine it with a similar graph for regional seats won, but this might be too much clutter.

  6. Eric, you said "In British Columbia, it appears that both the Tories and the NDP are moving up while the Liberals are moving down."

    Compared to the results of the Ekos poll for BC from last week these are the trends - both NDP and Liberals are moving down with the Tories and Greens moving up:

    C - 42% (+5%)
    N - 25% (-4%)
    L - 20% (-5%)
    G - 13% (+4%)

  7. Danny Williams' ABC campaign had no legs in "Atlantic Canada" outside his own province.

    You may remember, the Tories picked up seats in each of the three Maritime provinces.

  8. BC Voice of Reason05 November, 2009 16:48

    Very good break down of the EKOS poll. You provided great clarity for the impact of this poll on your model. Well done..


  9. Eric,

    remind me again why this is Bad News for the minority government this specific poll?

    If this is "Bad" News for an incumbent to hold a 10% lead dealing with all the hysteria atm, does this MEAN it is the WORST CASE SCENARIO for the opposition that can't hold any --->significant<--- gains?

    Did everyone think Polls only go one direction?


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