Thursday, November 26, 2009

Update on EKOS Poll

EKOS has updated this morning's poll, with a week-to-week breakdown. Similar numbers of people were surveyed between November 11-17 and November 18-24.

Here is the first week's result:

Conservatives - 37.7%
Liberals - 27.2%
New Democrats - 14.8%
Greens - 10.8%
Bloc Quebecois - 9.5%

Now, for the second week, we get these results:

Conservatives - 35.7%
Liberals - 27.1%
New Democrats - 15.8%
Greens - 12.1%
Bloc Quebecois - 9.3%

Statistical anomaly, or an indication of things to come in the future? Well, on November 18 the testimony on torture of Afghan detainees came out, and the "Direction of Government" poll went from 48.5% who said it was going in the right direction to 43.4%.

We'll need some more polling in the next week or two to see if this has really had an affect on Conservative support.


  1. More pressure on Iggy over HST:

    I see the HST as Iggy's big chance!

  2. I dont see how Ignatieff has any options on the HST front at all. The HST - especially as it's being implemented in Ontario - is an unequivocally good idea, and by opposing it he'd lose a ton of credibility in fiscal circles.

    BC's HST is easier to oppose, but opposing one province's and not anothers is a pretty nuanced position to convey to voters, and it runs the risk of looking like you're playing favourites.

  3. Eric,

    Numbers always go up or down slightly when there's total saturation on a particular story that's seen as negative for one party.

    But its hardly a sign of things to come.

    Especially when Canadians realize that we're discussing a problem from two years ago, that has already been fixed, and has nothing to do with anything.

  4. Meh. The change still puts it in the realm of margin of error between the Liberals and the Tories. (smaller sample = larger margin of error, the 1.3% MOE is for the ENTIRE sample, not the smaller samples.)

    Frankly I would have been more surprised if the numbers remained the same from week to week. There is always fluctuation in these numbers. Too bad they didn't include a MOE number on the smaller samples.

  5. You see, Jesse, this is what happens when you tie your self esteem to the success of a political party. To defend that party as it falls in the polls, you find yourself claiming that the possible torture of detainees "has nothing to do with anything" and (in the previous thread) airing anti-democratic comments about encouraging voter apathy and throwing out ballots which favour other parties. All of this is really very sad, but entirely predictable.

  6. Anon @ 17:41

    Just a few suggestions.

    1) You obviously spend a lot of time here, so if you're going to continue to address me it would be very helpful if you took the two seconds required to type in a name.

    2) People don't take armchair psychology seriously. Try to avoid it. Its all a bit amateur and hard not to chuckle at someone refering to my "self esteem".

    Now to the points at hand.

    Afghan citizens being tortured by the Afghan government in Afghanistan is not at all surprising. Prisoners are abused in every country to varying degrees.

    So what's the solution, release Taliban soldiers into the general population, indefinite detention, bringing them to Canada?

    No? OK so how about greater oversight of Afghan prisons by Corrections Canada and the Red Cross?

    What? We already did that? The problem has already been fixed?

    So why exactly does this have any meaning at all? Any relevence?

    As for my anti-democratic comments, if you mean that I do not support mob rule in the literal sense you are correct.

    I believe only the well informed should be encouraged to vote.

    And as for "tossing out ballots" - well now you're just making stuff up.

    Not sure how to respond to an outright lie, other than calling you out for making it - which I guess I just did.

  7. Torture of prisoners doesn't have much to do with anything. If it did, there would be more public outcry.

    This is exactly the same reasoning we can use to point out that Canadians don't care about poverty in Africa. If they did, there would be a political party successfully campaigning based on increasing aid. But there isn't, because Canadians don't care.

  8. Ira,

    We're actually just now starting to learn that a lot of the foriegn aid Liberal types throw at Africa is counter productive, breeds corruption, and creates dependency.

    It strikes me that we could apply similiar thinking to the last minute native funding deal Paul Martin signed.

    Native standards of living are not going to reach parity with the rest of Canadian society until the band system is abolished, private property is allowed, and rights/responsibilities are normalized.

  9. harris decima is out with a poll showing cons at 36 and the libs at 27...intersting..

  10. Anonymous, I always appreciate being notified about new polls, but please provide links.


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