Friday, November 20, 2009

New AR Poll: 15-pt Conservative Lead

Angus-Reid has a new poll out. It shows a massive Conservative lead.So, at 38% the Conservatives aren't exactly at an all-time high, but that is still a good result. It is, however, two points down from Angus-Reid's last poll at the end of October. The big result from this poll, though, is that the Liberals are at a gruesome 23%, down three points from the last poll. At 23%, the Liberals would be well below Stéphane Dion's sorry 2008 performance.

Surprisingly, the NDP isn't the net beneficiary from the slip of the two major parties. They remain steady at 17%. The Greens pick up three points and the Bloc picks up two.

Regionally, the Conservatives are doing well everywhere except Quebec. The numbers out West are just fine, while the 43% in Ontario is terrific. The 33% in Atlantic Canada is good (could be better), but the 19% in Quebec is troublesome. That is what kept the party below 40% in this poll.

The Liberals have to be worried everywhere. Alberta's result is fine, but the BC and Prairie results mean few seats. The Ontario result is absolutely horrendous, while Quebec's 19% would put them at historic lows. The 33% in Atlantic Canada isn't even very good.

The NDP is doing alright in several regions, but they should really be taking advantage of the Liberal woes. At 25% in BC and 27% in the Prairies, the NDP is competitive but not poised for any gains. The 15% in Ontario would result in some losses, while the 29% in Atlantic Canada won't see them gain any seats either. The 14% in Quebec, though, is good.

The Bloc's 42% in Quebec is a very good result, while the Greens are doing relatively well everywhere except in the Prairies and Atlantic Canada. At 12% in BC, though, Elizabeth May isn't close to getting elected.

This poll would result in the following seat totals:

Conservatives - 157
Liberals - 68
Bloc Quebecois - 53
New Democrats - 30

So, with the right opposition numbers, a majority below 40% is possible. The Conservatives take 75 seats in the West and North, 65 in Ontario, 8 in Quebec, and 9 in Atlantic Canada.

The Liberals, at only 68 seats, would barely form the Official Opposition. They take 9 seats in the West and North, 29 in Ontario, 13 in Quebec, and 17 in Atlantic Canada.

The NDP didn't do well enough in the regions they need to, and so take only 11 seats out West, 12 in Ontario, 1 in Quebec, and 6 in Atlantic Canada.

Peter Donolo could not be starting his job from anywhere lower. This is a horrible, horrible poll for the Liberals. The Conservatives can be happy with their own result, but less so about Quebec. The NDP must be wondering why they can't get some traction and overtake the Liberals, while the Bloc should be pleasantly surprised.

So, we're still going to be getting polls now and then. I think I will no longer update the projection at a set day of the week, and instead update as time and polling frequency permits.

41 comments:

  1. I guess you may as well do a new projection for the week since you now have a Nanos and an ARG to incorporate.

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  2. Hi Eric:
    A question: how when CPC and LPC are tied in Atlantic Canada would the LPC do so well against the CPC there? Also wondering if you think Ralph Goodale would be in trouble with this poll, if it is accurate? Thanks.

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  3. The Liberal vote is more efficient in Atlantic Canada, and I'd say anything's possible with such low numbers.

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  4. Looking at Angus Polls only 3 months from August 28- November 20 the CPC have gained 4%, Liberals lose 7%, NDP lose 1% Bloc up 3% Green up 1%.

    I am still not sure how this is bad news in QC?

    I still think the NDP are doing well holding to their base. They have very little press.

    What did the NDP, CPC do in QC 2000,2004,2006, 2008? Are they within their 2008 numbers?

    How many seats have changed hands since 2000-2008 from the Liberals to the other parties in Quebec?

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  5. These numbers (caution, the sample size in Man/Sask is very small) wouldn't mean much for Goodale. In the 2008 election, he won easily when across the region, the Tories took 51%, Liberals 17% and NDP 25%. This poll only has the Liberals down 1% and the Tories up 4% and the NDP up 2% - it would probably yield no seat turnovers at all.

    By my reckoning this poll would mean that BC is an almost exact replica of the last election and there would be no seat changes either. In Alberta the Tories are down 4% from the last election and the NDP is down 1% - while the Liberals and Greens are each up a bit - that would mean that the NDP wins again in Edmonton-Strathcona and everything else is unchanged.

    Ontario is the big tamale. These numbers projected across the province would mean that the Liberals would lose about 8 or 9 seats to the Tories and the NDP would lose 2. The Liberal/NDP gap in relative terms is unchanged (ie: Libs are down 5% and the NDP is down 3%) from the last election, so there would be no change in Liberal/NDP seats. NDP leaves Ontario with 15.

    Quebec is interesting in that it is not at all surprising to see the NDP up slightly at 14% and the Liberals down to 19%, but given the byelection in Riviere du Loup, you would think that the Tories would be doing a bit better than 19%. Still, if we go strictly by the numbers, the Tories lose half their seats in Quebec and the Liberals can say good bye to Justin Trudeau as well.

    The Atlantic numbers would mean NDP takes St. John's South from Liberals and the Liberals might lose one in PEI and one in NB to the Tories.

    That's my reading of this poll.

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  6. Oh boy, tis tough being a Liberal these days... A suggestion to my party; Ignatieff step down, and remaining MP's and party operatives, do your best to convince John Turner to lead the party once more.

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  7. More troubling for the Liberals is that, already down to 23%, they are also suffering from their leader having -41% momentum. That does not speak well the the party rebounding any time soon.

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  8. Hi Eric.

    I was wondering if you will be including the numbers from this poll into the Best PM numbers?

    Thanks for doing a wonderful job with keeping this site up to date!

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  9. The poll didn't include that question.

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  10. Sorry Eric, I supposed I confused page 5's approval rating with Best PM.

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  11. There is a new BC provincial poll out today:

    NDP - 43%
    BC Libs - 35%
    Greens - 15%
    BC Conservatives - 5%

    http://www.mustelgroup.com/pdf/20091120.pdf

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  12. Thanks, I'll post about it later.

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  13. DL,

    This single Poll should mean NOTHING. The trend since 2000 the Liberals won with 40% of popular vote. In every single official Poll they have only gone one direction. The NDP have benefitted and grown since 2000 but with the growth of the Greens and the Bloc firmly in place the NDP SEAT gains are unlikely to break fourth place in the next election.

    In every single projection site I do not see a gain for the NDP. Why else do you think Jack joined the Liberals in taking turns propping up "right wing" reform-con government?

    The NDP don't do internal polling?
    Can the Liberals lose enough seats at lift everyone?

    If the Liberals fall to 50 seats, where do the spoils go?

    The Bloc only have so many seats in Quebec and might become the official opposition if the Liberals fall below 45 seats.

    If finishing third from fourth in seats is a great accomplishment than so be it, any other goal would be funny to entertain.

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  14. Goodale's riding would definetly be competitive with these numbers. He'd start the race at about +6 on the Tories if we adjust the 2008 results to this poll.

    A top notch recruit and a strong local campaign could very easily knock him off.

    He's definetly not "safe" but he does start the race with the upper hand.

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  15. If the Liberals actually did fall deep into the low 20s - and i'm not saying that will happen - but just to be hypothetical - its pretty obvious that all the other parties would benefit to some extent. The BQ would win back a couple of seats they lost narrowly last time - but once you get past those two seats, the other Liberal seats in Quebec are not francophone enough to ever go BQ.

    If the Liberals fell to 21-22%, the NDP would probably start scooping up seats like Dartmouth, St. John's South, possibly other seats in NS, Toronto seats like Beaches-East York, Davenport, York-South Weston, Parkdale-High Park etc... would come into play for the NDP, as would Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca and Vancouver Centre....and of course the Tories would probably pick plenty of pieces of meat of their own off the Liberal carcass in parts of 905 and rural parts of Atlantic Canada.

    It would be quite a sight to behold.

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  16. I wonder just how many retirements we'll see from the Liberal benches when a Harper majority comes ?

    I know there was something like 30 after the '06 election. Obviously with a much smaller caucus it won't be anywhere near that.

    But its a classic symptom of a death spiral.

    Combine that with the additional seats in BC, Alberta, and Ontario and we could be looking at 2 majority terms of Harper.

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  17. Apparently Ipsos just released a poll showing the Tories at 37%, the Liberals at 24% and the NDP at 19%! Ipsos usually has the NDP way lower than anyone else and their last poll had them at 13% so this marks a 6 point jump!

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  18. Ipsos has the NDP up 8 points to 21% in Ontario!

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  19. It was just a couple of months ago that everyone was talking about the Harper vs. Ignatieff battle to see who would be PM. Those days are OVER. I think that as we go into the holiday season, the new narrative is going to be - who can take on Harper? - Ignatieff or Layton.

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  20. HST Blues:

    First the poll in BC showing the NDP with a sizable lead, then this from the Ipsos poll:



    Darrell Bricker, CEO and president of Ipsos Reid, chalked up the gains of Jack Layton's NDP to Ontario voters being frustrated with the McGuinty government, particularly with the forthcoming harmonized sales tax, and that is being carried over to the federal Liberals.

    "The NDP has really started to define a position on that issue," said Bricker. "It's not that the NDP has moved so much provincially, but the Liberal brand is in a certain amount of trouble in this province. As we know, (Ontario) is a place where elections are won and lost."

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  21. This is a poll reminiscent of the ones we saw during 2006 towards the end of the election campaign, and during Dion's reign in some instances. It means Iggy needs to get on the fast track or face some just desserts.

    But with great Liberal rationalization, I'll note that we have a long way to go until another election, unless Harper takes his chance. Plus, as a person who subscribes to AR's polls, literally, I don't put huge stock in their numbers.


    Its nice to know the NDP aren't benefiting much, though. You've got to enjoy the little things.

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  22. Volkov,

    See comments above, Ipsos is very kind to the NDP.

    The current Liberal strategy is to avoid an election until the 2011 budget and force the gov't to defend painful, unpopular cuts.

    A far more likely scenario is for Harper to have a poison pill fall update in 2010 which includes cuts to funding for political parties.

    An election one year from now, should be interesting!

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  23. Jesse

    I would go one step farther.

    Introduce HST separately and let the NDP get points for talking from both sides of their mouth.

    Let the Liberals draw a line in the sand for the 29th time.

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  24. Jesse the cut to public financing for political parties prompted a very negative reaction last December. Had the opposition merely forced the government to back down or even defeated it. things might well be very different now. Had the government been defeated on the issue of public financing for political parties and an election called then we might well have a Liberal PM right now. Why would Harper willingly repeat his mistake?

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  25. Jesse,

    You're absolutely right about Harper's 2010 poison pill. I think it will be the HST, though who knows?

    It will be an interesting year indeed.

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  26. Earl,

    "Jesse the cut to public financing for political parties prompted a very negative reaction last December."

    A majority of the public supported the move. Polling showed that. Harper's numbers went through the roof after the coalition was brought up.

    Regardless, the GG would have to call an election which is what Harper would want. No way there would be a coalition 2.0

    So why not go ahead with the move ?

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  27. I've been wondering - has anyone ever seen a poll where the Liberals dip under 20%?

    I have to imagine that we're scraping the bottom of the barrel now, but if support flatlines at 20-25%, that isn't terribly bad. I mean, think about it; after years of scandal, ineffective leaders, and little direction, the Liberals bottom out at about 1/4 of the voting population. That seems better than some parties in other countries, where they're literally reaching under 10% - while still in government.

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  28. CanadianSense, Volkov,

    I assume the Liberals will support the HST legislation so as not to create a fatal rupture with their Ontario campaign staff and the Dalton camp.

    I'm expecting it in the budget, which will come either before or after the Olympics. My guess is Jan. though.

    Get the thing done with and out of the way ASAP.

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  29. Jesse,

    I thought about the rupture with the Ontario Liberals, if the federal Liberals do vote against it, and I am questioning whether or not it is actually that huge of a factor.

    I work with my local riding associations and while they do support the HST, they seem almost reluctant. Kind of like, we support it out of loyalty, but not much else.

    If that is the case, would the federal Liberals breaking with the Ontario Libs actually cost them that many votes? I know even if the federal Libs vote against the HST, the two riding associations here will work together - I can't see voters switching themselves over in droves either.

    We'll see though.

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  30. Ignatieff is aleady on record as supporting the HST so he is stuck with it. It will just be a matter of seeing how much humiliation the NDP can force on the Liberals making them go right back to the old Dion "strategy" (aka "we will support the Tories in exchange for NOTHING, as long as we can avoid an election for as long as possible)

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  31. The news just keeps getting better and better. Angus Reid also has a new provincial poll out for BC. This one has the NDP at 47% and the BC Libs at 33%

    http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Democrats+hold+double+digit+lead+over+Liberals+poll/2248474/story.html

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  32. DL,

    Did you expect anything else for Campbell's Liberals?

    The good thing for the federal Libs though is that most BCers know there is a big difference between the provincial and federal parties. Support against the HST will have fallout on the Conservatives as well in this case.

    But, when has Iggy said he supported the HST outright? He said he supports the concept, but not how it is being handled - hence the "nuanced position."

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  33. Earl,

    when did demostrating to the public the opposition are more interested in our tax dollars (Political Welfare)than in dealing with the serious issues facing Canada become a problem?

    The Polls did not support the 3 stooges. December 2008 Polls show CPC 40-46%, John Stewart ran a clip as well.

    In January the Liberals agreed to 2 of the 3 issues.

    We have the Libs & NDP taking turns saving us from the CPC majority.

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  34. Iggy could have stuck with the coalition back in January and he would be PM today. Instead, he will be a footnote in Canadian political history.

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  35. Perhaps in a parallel universe the Liberals and NDP will be in a coalition or Canadians would have supported the 3 stooges.

    I also did want MI to pull the plug for similiar reasons but believe the footnote would have become official in Feb 2009 with Jack and MI both being sent packing.

    Some of us will have to wait until the NDP and Liberals stop reading the Polls and pull the plug on those evil CPC.

    We are waiting patiently.

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  36. DL,

    That's assuming that the GG didn't call an election in Jan.

    "The news just keeps getting better and better. Angus Reid also has a new provincial poll out for BC. This one has the NDP at 47% and the BC Libs at 33%"

    As someone who lived through the bad old days of NDP rule with the out of control budget, the unions running the show and draining the public coffers, the wasteful spending on boondoggles, the high taxes and stagnant economy I am glad that an election is years and years away and Gordo will have retired by then.

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  37. Hold on!!! I never said the public supported the coalition. Just the opposite in fact. They public did not support the withdrawal of public financing to my recollection. It wasn't until the LPC and NDP and BLOC blundered into the coalition that things began to unravel. Had they simply forced an election the Liberals may well have won, Dion and all. Now despite the polls I do believe that Iggy is viewed as more competent than Dion.

    As a political party you never want to hand the opposition an issue. Both the HST and political financing do just that imo. I may well be wrong!

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  38. The CPC/OBAMA Democrat strategists have a great deal in common.

    They had years in the wilderness to learn from the mistakes and take corrective action.

    Political Pay Subsidy
    The CPC would embark on this based on some whim? (Timing is important)

    Theories

    1)Coalition Plan(s) was discovered and the opposition needed to be exposed before the effects of the recession became worse and they could marshall public support for it.
    2) The CPC are incompetent and did not know the backlash from the opposition would require them to join "forces"

    "public did not support the withdrawal of public financing"


    I don't know ANYONE who think a Politician deserves more money, better benefits, larger expense accounts.

    The idea of Political Parties justifying their NEED to keep C-24 ,indexed is a VOTE destroyer.

    The CBC and the enablers of parties who have not fixed their funding problems may suggest taxpayers empathize with politicians.

    There was a Poll will look it up later.

    They both built up a grassroots organization over years. They were able to campaign against their opponents track record and build on the public support against the administration's weakenesses.

    Both organization outspent, out performed their competitors.

    Research, analysis, policies were crafted to appeal and win back voting blocks.

    http://www.suite101.com/article.cfm/canada_politics/101399/1

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  39. Dec 5, 2008 Poll Ispos Reid link below


    The National Post published an Ipsos-Reid poll conducted on December 2-3, 2008 asking whether political parties should receive public funding. They found that 61% of those polled opposed public funding, 36% supported public funding and 3% didn’t know or refused to answer the question. So was the move to cut public funding a political move by the Conservatives motivated by a desire to financially cripple their political opponents?

    http://peterkazmaier.com/?p=95

    And just what has caused the situation?

    Canadians are completely divided on what has caused this crisis: 44% believe it began with a policy argument between the government and the opposition parties over the extent of stimulus the government should undertake for the economy -- primarily viewed as such in Québec (57%) followed by Atlantic Canada (53%), British Columbia (45%), Ontario (42%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (39%) and, finally, Alberta (19%).

    On the other hand, 45% believe that it is the result of a partisan argument between the government and the opposition parties over federal political party funding -- primarily viewed as such from those in Alberta (64%), followed by those in Ontario (48%), British Columbia (41%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (40%), Atlantic Canada (39%) and Quebec (36%).

    And, just what about that political party taxpayer funded subsidy? A majority (61%) says be done with it…

    In the economic update last week delivered by finance Minister Jim Flaherty, the Conservative government proposed to abolish the system of political financing in which parties receive $1.95 annually for each vote they get in an election. In response to criticism from opposition parties, the government dropped the proposal. Regardless, a majority (61%) does not believe that political parties should receive this taxpayer funded subsidy -- with this most likely to be the perspective in Alberta (75%) followed by Saskatchewan and Manitoba (68%), Ontario (64%), British Columbia (59%), Atlantic Canada (57%) and Quebec (52%).

    This compares with just 36% who believe that this type of taxpayer funded subsidy should continue to exist -- with most support in the province of Québec (48%), followed by Atlantic Canada (39%), British Columbia (39%), Ontario (32%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (26%) and Alberta (22%).
    Poll
    http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=4201

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  40. Canadian Sense:

    I stand corrected. I still believe that it could be an important election issue. I don't see the CPC re-introducing said legislation until/if they have a majority.

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  41. Earl,

    No problem. The effectiveness of the propaganda spread from the MSM and opposition parties is diminishing.

    Instead of doing the research and examining the facts we get Bubble Boy and wafer stories.

    The opposition and MSM are relying on people are buying the "headlines" and don't dig too deeply.

    The Polls continue to reflect how people are discounting the hysteria and the hidden agenda spun from the MSM.

    You get partisans from the NDP and Liberals claiming MI would have been the PM.

    Those 3 stooges would have wiped out representation from nearly 60% of Canada to concentrate power in Toronto.

    Majority (68%) Of Canadians From Every Part Of Country Supports Governor General’s Decision To Prorogue Parliament
    Fear and Anger Grips the Nation as Almost Three Quarters (72%) of Canadians say they are Truly Scared for the Future of the Country with What is Going On in Ottawa

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