This latest projection stops the Conservative march towards a majority. But it is the NDP that is this week's big winner.So, the New Democrats are up two seats to 29, while the Tories lose one and fall to 139 while the Liberals lose another and are at 91. The Bloc remains steady at 49 seats. The NDP made the biggest popular vote gain with 0.2 points, while the Conservatives gained 0.1 points and the Liberals lost 0.4 points, a very big drop.
Despite the seat drop, the Conservatives are stable or growing everywhere in the country. The one hiccup was in British Columbia, where they gained 0.3 points but lost one seat. The party also gained 0.3 points in the Prairies, 0.2 points in Ontario, and 0.1 points in Atlantic Canada. They were stable in Alberta, Quebec, and the North. All in all, though, it was a rather mediocre week for the Tories.
The Liberals dropped in every single region. The biggest came in Ontario, where they are down 0.4 points and one seat. They also lost 0.3 points in Quebec and British Columbia (which hurts them a lot), 0.2 points in the Prairies and Atlantic Canada, and 0.1 point in Alberta and the North. A bad week for Michael Ignatieff.
The New Democrats are actually pretty stable, with tiny gains in most of the country. But the fall of the Liberals worked to their advantage. They're up 0.1 points in British Columbia, the Prairies, Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada, while stable in Alberta and the North. The two seat gains came in British Columbia and Ontario. A good week for them.
The Bloc is up 0.1 points in Quebec, marking another week of small gain. The Greens were up and down throughout the country, but only to the extent of 0.1 point. They gained that much in Alberta, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada, but lost that much in British Columbia and the Prairies.
I think we're going to keep seeing the Liberals drop until they get to about 26% in the projection. During that time, the Tories will likely get themselves up to 37% and the NDP back to about 16.5% to 17%. Actually, it looks like we're going to end up with a mirror image of the 2008 election results unless there is some sort of dramatic change.