Thursday, November 26, 2009

CP Mentions New Harris-Decima Poll

The Canadian Press is reporting on a new Harris-Decima poll, taken sometime recently over two weeks. The national result:

Conservatives - 36%
Liberals - 27%
New Democrats - 15%
Greens - 11%

In Quebec, the Bloc has 39%, the Liberals have 22%, the Conservatives have 18%, and the NDP and Greens have 10%.

As far as I can tell, the last Harris-Decima poll was never uploaded to their website. We got an incomplete newspaper article and that was it. At this point, that is what we have from this poll as well.

I won't be adding it to the projection without complete information.


  1. Robert Fife seems to have a good scoop.

    Conservatives are planning to introduce HST harmonization legislation BEFORE Christmas.

    Here's the kicker though - it will NOT be a confidence measure and if it fails it will not be re-introduced.

    Put up or shut up time for Iggy I guess.

  2. I do not see the Liberals voting against this for fear of alienating themselves from the Ontario Liberal Party. But hey, let's see what happens. Could prove to be very interesting.

    As being from Ontario myself, I think people here would be less angry with the whole HST idea if Dalton decided to lower the PST, much like how the provinces east of us did when they introduced their HST.

    I suppose come the first or second week of July, we will all see how happy Ontario is with the HST (assuming everything passes through parliment).

  3. Michael:

    Confirmation from the Globe and Mail:

    A smooth move by Harper. It does give the NDP something to campaign against though and potentially the LPC if they defeat the legislation.

    Although this is not a confidence motion the government could be defeated just after it returns from its Christmas sitting, while the HST is relatively fresh in the voters minds. I'm now with Jesse in thinking Iggy will not defeat it. We're going to get pummeled by taxes here in ON.

  4. I don't really see a political downside for the Liberals in blocking it; at least with regards to provincial Liberals anyway.

    They're not going to start fighting each other over a policy difference. McGuinty didn't like the carbon tax for example, but his talk about it was fairly muted.

  5. Interesting to see, but I don't understand how an alteration of the tax system can be done without being a money bill.

  6. Earl, thanks for the link.

    Aren't we already getting pummelled by taxes? A prime example would be Dalton's Health Tax.

    The NDP will probably gain some support after this is over with from the left swaying Liberal voters if the Federal Liberals vote for the HST.

  7. Barcs, I do not believe it is an altercation to the Federal Tax system since it is covered in the Excise Tax Act:

    To me, all it looks like is an inclusion vote to whether or not Ontario and B.C. should be allowed into the HST.

    Really, all B.C. and Ontario are doing is surrendering their constitutionally-granted taxation powers to the whims of future federal governments. I do not know the complete agreement B.C. has with the Federal Government (nor does it really matter to me), but I do know that with Ontario, we are signing on to a 5-year agreement to which if another governing party wants to break free from, they (really Ontario tax payers) will end up paying massive penalties.

  8. Except BC and Ontario aren't actually surrending anything. They're still allowed to introduce new provincial sales taxes, so they could easily remove themselves from the HST by reducing their portion of the tax to 0% and then creating a new one.

  9. Kevin,

    I don't see a political upside for the Liberals defeating this thing either.

    Everyone will say the victory is Jack Layton's.

    And Iffy's reputation with the press as honourable, serious, a straight shooter will be totally demolished when they see him telling his party to vote against a tax scheme THE LIBERALS INVENTED!!

    I also think you might be downplaying the provincial/federal rift.

    Could you imagine taking a huge political hit like McGuinty has for a policy that never happens? All those points in the polls wasted for nothing!

    I know i'd be furious. And if Dalton has any influence over the Ontario MPs, even just his brother, it could cause open revolt in Iffy's caucus.

  10. That's a good point. McGuinty would be livid if the Liberals defeated the HST.

    On the other hand, Gordon Campbell would probably love it. Sure, he'd lose his $1.6 billion bribe, but he'd get to avoid implementing an unpopular tax while at the same time blaming someone else (Ignatieff) for the province's financial woes.

  11. Ira, I believe this article will be of interest to you:

    Quote from the article:

    "Note that if a similar agreement were to be implemented here, the authority to collect the sales tax -- five per cent for Ottawa, seven for Victoria -- would no longer reside in provincial legislation. Even if a future B.C. administration wanted to repeal the HST, it would require federal legislation.

    The agreement is locked in for five years, until July 1 2015. "If at any time, the province is considered to have committed a material breach of the agreement, the parties agree that the assistance amount will become immediately due and repayable by the province as a debt to Canada.""

    I do not see anyone breaching that 5 year agreement. I also do not believe that B.C. will create a different agreement with Ottawa than what Ontario has already agreed to.

  12. I also forgot to mention, it looks like Ontario is going to be locked into this percentage for at least 2 years. As for what Ira said about lowering the provincial total to 0% and creating a new provincial tax, well, I am going to have to do more research on that. From what I can tell, it is not the case - but I am not going to say that is for sure yet.

  13. Michael,

    Its an agreement. It can be broken at any time. No federal legislation required.

    Taxation powers are held by the provinces and the federal government and they cannot be given up without a change to the constitution. The issue might have to go to the supreme court but the provinces can basically do whatever they like.

    Yes, the money would have to be given back.


    It should be. That's only fair. If somebody goes back on an agreement, of course they don't get to keep the money.

    So this whole "locked in" arguement is utter nonsense.

  14. Michael,

    As for being locked into the specific percentage, that seems true - if the provinces want to change the HST rate they need to give the feds advance notice because it'll be the feds doing collections.

    However, they can always cancel the HST at any time and replace it with a lower PST as Ira suggested.

    They just need to give back the money.


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