Friday, April 9, 2010

Best Case Scenarios - March 2010

With the polling results from the month of March, what is the best electoral result each party could cobble together?

What I've done is taken the best polling results for each party in each of the six regions, and used those polling results to come up with a projection. In other words, these projections are the best possible result each party could've gotten had an election taken place in the month of March.

We'll start with the New Democrats.With an estimated national support of 21.3%, the NDP wins 43 seats, matching Ed Broadbent's record in seats and surpassing his record in popular support.

The NDP wins 16 seats in the West, thanks to high levels of support in British Columbia (28%), Alberta (14%), and the Prairies (27%). They win 18 seats in Ontario (22% support), 2 in Quebec (16%), and 7 in Atlantic Canada (32%). Nevertheless, the Conservatives win the most amount of seats though the Liberals and NDP outnumber the Tories, 130 to 126.

The NDP are pretty close to as good as they have ever been in their history. But a lot of things would need to go their way if Jack Layton hopes to match Ed Broadbent's results.

Now, the Liberals.In a close election where the Liberals win 33.1% of the vote, Michael Ignatieff becomes the new Prime Minister after putting together a slim minority.

The Liberals win 24 seats in the West, with strong results in British Columbia (29.6%), Alberta (21.9%), the Prairies (29.2%), and the North, where they sweep. In Ontario, the Liberals take in 39% of the vote and 54 seats. In Quebec, they have 31% support and 21 seats, and in Atlantic Canada they take 42% of the vote and 22 of the seats. They're able to form government thanks to a weak performance by the Bloc Québécois in Quebec and the Conservatives, primarily in British Columbia.

This shows how fragile the Liberal position is. Even under ideal circumstances they can barely win a plurality of seats. For them to have success, the Bloc needs to stumble and the Conservatives need to perform badly out West. In this scenario, their results in Ontario and east of it aren't even that bad.

And now, the Conservatives.With 37.5% of the vote, the Conservatives win 148 seats and are kept at a minority for the third consecutive time.

Caucus is dominated by the West, where 79 seats are won thanks to the results in British Columbia (43%), Alberta (66%), and the Prairies (49.5%). The party wins 48 seats in Ontario with 37% support, and take 10 in Quebec (21.8%) and 11 in Atlantic Canada (35.9%). Despite a great loss of seats by the NDP and the Bloc, the Conservatives can't beat down the Liberals enough to form a majority.

Seven seats shy of 155, even if everything goes right. This, more than anything, shows why the Conservatives should not go to an election. It is unlikely that they can win a majority, even if the Bloc is reduced to 31.5% support and 42 seats. They simply can't put together the results they need in the East to go along with what they can win in the West. Would the Conservatives be happy with a small increase in their mandate? Maybe. They would be able to govern for a few more years, but the situation in the House of Commons would remain unchanged.

This is pretty much as good as it gets for the parties within the context of March polling. The best the NDP can hope for is five extra MPs. The Liberals can dream of a minority government, but even if everything goes right it would be won by the slimmest of margins. And the Conservatives, despite their best efforts, cannot get to a majority.

That's probably why we're not going to have an election before Parliament closes for the summer.

166 comments:

  1. Isn't Iggy sounding pro-election again ?

    Speaking in Quebec I see he said this:

    "Soon, Quebecers will have to make a choice"

    ReplyDelete
  2. That could have been standard federalist talk, though.

    And how soon is "soon"?

    Ignatief's remarks were classic political vagueness.

    ReplyDelete
  3. How interesting!

    It seems like no party is really in a position to be boasting about, even in the best-case scenarios.

    While the Conservatives could easily hang on to government, its questionable why, 7 years after the right united, they still can't beat down the Liberals enough to win a majority.

    And the Liberals, despite moves to renewal and capitalizing on the rapidly dwindling tolerance of the Harper government, still must struggle to win even a bare plurality of seats.

    And even though the NDP could do better in their share of the popular vote than Ed Broadbent, they still can't get above that magic number of 43. They're stuck and no amount of hope on their part will change that.

    Ah, what a drama Canadian politics has to tell.

    ReplyDelete
  4. I like the "Liberal best case scenario" the most.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Hey, didn't someone here say in another thread that Guergis will not leave cabinet?

    You were wrong!

    ReplyDelete
  6. Shadow,

    You just may get your wish.

    Glover?

    ReplyDelete
  7. Glover is a distinct possibility, but I wouldn't put all my chips on it. I heard Joy Smith is looking for a job...

    ReplyDelete
  8. I like Joy Smith.

    I am more impressed with her than Glover.

    ReplyDelete
  9. It's Rona Ambrose.

    I guess we were all wrong.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Wow, what a bad, bad, choice.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Guergie, has been kicked out of the Conservative caucus.

    There is now an RCMP investigation.

    Steve is very angry.

    She can not come back until she is cleared.

    WOW!!!


    (I was rooting for Joy Smith, to take over Guergis's post)

    ReplyDelete
  12. There's an RCMP investigation??

    This just gets worse and worse.

    ReplyDelete
  13. 49

    "There is now an RCMP investigation."

    This just gets better and better (vbg)

    ReplyDelete
  14. She said she'll remain MP for her riding, yet I don't see how she has any future in cabinet or the Conservative Party now. Even if she is cleared by the ethics commissioner, she's still pretty toxic.

    She'll either refuse to run in the next election, or hopefully she'll drop out before then and we'll have a by-election. Simcoe-Grey isn't a bad riding for the Liberals, and even if they won't win it (it is still Conservative leaning, after all), they'll come in a good second. The Liberal candidate there, Andrea Matrosovs, is a good candidate, I've met her a couple times.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Peter,

    Does the RCMP get involved in any case for nothing.

    Sounds like some alleged, criminal activity going on.

    I have to admit I am enjoying it, it looks good on the sanctimonious CPC.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Peter/Volkov,

    I will give you the Conservative talking point

    "Yeah but the Liberals were worse"

    Just so ya know.

    ReplyDelete
  17. 49,

    Too true, too true. But Iggy's scrum just now was excellent. Very good point: something has happened over the last 24 hours to change the Prime Minister's mind.

    And, wow, I didn't realize, but she was just kicked out of the Conservative caucus. Kicked out. A minister. She really must have stepped in it!

    ReplyDelete
  18. The RCMP angle is a little odd - it would have been nice for someone to find out what exactly he's talking about.

    Makes that house purchase in Ottawa look like a bad idea.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Volkov,

    I think we deserve to know what is going on.

    Can you imagine if this was a Liberal cabinet minister.

    Steve would be going ape shit.

    There is something big there.

    The Conservatives rode into office on a mantra, of open honest, and ethical government.

    HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!

    (All that being said if he had Joy Smith instead of Guergis, none of this would have happened. She served in the Manitoba legislature, and she is as honest as the day is long)

    ReplyDelete
  20. 49

    Let's do this in point form:

    One: Harper asks for her resignation inferring if she doesn't tender it he will fire her.

    Second he kicks her out of caucus

    Three the RCMP are called in. That would only happen if there was suspected criminal activity. In that case the caucus removal is the norm

    Fourth the Ethics Commissioner is called in.

    Now the real point, last night Harper was defending her, something happened last night to really change things and one suspects that it is allegations of criminal activity on her or Jaffers part or both.

    ReplyDelete
  21. Volkov

    "But Iggy's scrum just now was excellent. Very good point: something has happened over the last 24 hours to change the Prime Minister's mind."

    Yes it was, saw most of it. He was very careful re allegations to not make any.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Great news. Removing Guergis from caucus insulates the Conservatives from much of the fallout from her wrongdoing.

    ReplyDelete
  23. Hi Liberals, quick question.

    Please name me the various cabinet minister during the sponsorship scandal who:

    A) Were expelled from cabinet
    B) Were expelled from caucus
    C) PM asked RCMP to investigate
    D) PM asked ethics commisioner to investigate

    Accountability and ethics isn't about never making a mistake.

    Its about correcting it in a speedy manner.

    24 hours is a pretty speedy record!

    ReplyDelete
  24. It strikes me that Geurgis will probably return to caucus and eventually to a parliamentary secretary position after she is cleared of all wrong doing.

    ReplyDelete
  25. Peter,

    Hey im pyshic.

    Look at Shadow's post.

    I predicted the conservative talking point.

    And I was right.

    Shadow, you silly boy, you are so predictable.

    ReplyDelete
  26. Shadow,

    No one ever doubted that, "Conservative." However, as far as I'm aware, whenever the Liberals asked someone to sit outside of their caucus, they were forthwith about the reasons why. Harper hasn't told us anything yet, and wrapped himself in the cloak of the RCMP investigation. All well and fine, but he could have at least given us a hint.

    ReplyDelete
  27. Typical eh 49

    "
    24 hours is a pretty speedy record!"

    The fact this farce has been going on for months is neatly ignored.

    My suspicion is that if the criminal allegation hadn't surfaced she would still be in Cabinet.

    ReplyDelete
  28. Volkov what on earth are you and Iggy talking about ?

    We already know the questions the RCMP and ethics investigator need to resolve.

    They stem from the Toronto Star report on influence peddling (RCMP) and the improper use of a blackberry for Jaffer's private bussiness (ethics investigator).

    Those are the only events that occured in the last 24 hours. Harper doesn't have any hidden knowledge.

    ReplyDelete
  29. Peter what are you talking about ?

    This hasn't been going on for months and months.

    The allegations only arose 24 hours ago.

    Harper's actions were decisive and nessecary. I'm proud of the CPC today.

    ReplyDelete
  30. Shadow,

    Are you serious?

    The allegations of influence peddling, Jaffer's involvement and connections, and everything else involved with that, weren't known only 24 hours ago. Did you just block out the last week and months before then?

    These allegations have been swirling for awhile now. And given that the government is privileged to a lot more information than we or the media knows at any given time until such a request is made for the information, I have some serious doubts, as any person should, about what the government knew and when it knew it.

    All of the controversy around Guergis didn't just show up last night. Give it a rest.

    ReplyDelete
  31. Shadow,

    Will you give it up already.

    Something is going on.

    We deserve to know what it is.

    I am so glad to hear you are proud of the CPC.

    After you guys smeared Ralph Goodale, and it all came to nothing did the CPC apologize?

    Be an honest conservative for once, and stand up and demand answers, to this whole sordid affair.

    ReplyDelete
  32. "Harper's actions were decisive and nessecary. I'm proud of the CPC today."

    Only a brainwashed primitive like you could be!!

    ReplyDelete
  33. Volkov it has only been 24 hours since credible allegations have occured.

    Nothing before this point broke any law or ethical standard. Andrwe Coyne made that very point last night on At Issue.

    In fact its clear that Harper is acting pro-actively, out of an abundance of ethics and accountability, to put these questions to the proper authorities so they can be resolved once and for all.

    It was the e-mails the Toronto Star obtained showing allegations of influence peddling.

    That involves Geurgis via conflict of interest laws.

    Its called accountability.

    I'm very proud of Mr. Harper today.

    ReplyDelete
  34. 49-Volkov
    Me
    "Now the real point, last night Harper was defending her, something happened last night to really change things and one suspects that it is allegations of criminal activity on her or Jaffers part or both."

    Volkov
    The allegations of influence peddling, Jaffer's involvement and connections, and everything else involved with that, weren't known only 24 hours ago. Did you just block out the last week and months before then?

    Of course he did, brainwashed primitives do that when the info they are presented is too much for their programming to handle.

    ReplyDelete
  35. Shadow,

    Lol, come on. You can't seriously swallow that line without feeling it come back up a bit, can you?

    When the allegations first surfaced months ago, there should have been an investigation. There wasn't. Instead, Harper waits until the very last minute to say, oh, well, I called in the RCMP and everything is good now. It isn't.

    Harper has held off on this for months, until today, when he apparently had a change of heart. It doesn't add up. Either he's lacking in action, or something changed last night which made it a whole new ball game. Maybe it was the Star article, maybe not, but I'll tell you this; that Star article didn't confirm anything new that wasn't already hypothesized before.

    Harper shouldn't have waited. Good on him on acting now, but he shouldn't have waited. And it sure as hell wasn't the Opposition which kicked him into action.

    ReplyDelete
  36. Shadow,

    I can't find a big enough shovel to clean up all the bullshit you are flinging around.

    Get serious, you are making a fool of yourself.

    I don't agree with you on anything, but this is getting painful to watch.

    I feel embarassed for you.

    ReplyDelete
  37. Ira hit the right note. Shadow is a caricature!

    ReplyDelete
  38. Volkov you must be hearing Ottawa whispers I haven't. Or maybe you're imagining things.

    Please link me to a credible allegation before the Toronto Star report ?

    Geurgis wasn't kicked out for swearing in an aiport.

    IT was the Toronto Star that obtained an e-mail saying:

    "Jaffer has opened the door to the Prime Minister's office"

    That is the first credible allegation of wrong doing.

    It implies influence peddling and involves Geurgis because:

    A) He was using her blackberry
    B) She may have been in conflict of interest of his illegal lobbying activities

    None of that was known before 24 hours ago.

    I challenge you to find a news report to the contary.

    Harper acted within 24 hours with the utmost integrity and accountability.

    He was the one who called in the RCMP and the ethics investigator. He was the one who expelled her from caucus. And he made it clear that her resignation was unavoidable.

    ReplyDelete
  39. Eric read my above statement and point out a factual error in it.

    Volkov, 49 steps, Peter, et al do the same.

    Put up or shut up time.

    ReplyDelete
  40. Eric,

    I like this post. I hope that you do this again. It is an interesting way to look at it.

    Thanks,

    Rocky

    ReplyDelete
  41. Rocky,

    I'll try to do it each month. And I'm always open to new ideas.

    ReplyDelete
  42. Peter,

    Shadow is so indoctrinated, in CPC idealogy, resistance for him really is futile.

    Ira, congrats to you for at least acknowledging, that Guergis may be involved in wrong doing.

    I am now waiting for Earl, to come on.

    Earl, will be honest.

    ReplyDelete
  43. Harper acted within 24 hours with the utmost integrity and accountability.

    Fascinating how fast they can get the spin and lies going?

    Of course if there were pre-knowledge it would be easier.

    Guergis blew up in PEI in February you twit. Since then she and Jaffer have just been the gift that goes on giving !!

    Only a brainwashed primitive would believe the stuff put out by Harper and Soudras.

    ReplyDelete
  44. "Guergis blew up in PEI in February you twit"

    Oh god you're joking right ?

    You don't get expelled from cabinet, expelled from caucus, and have the RCMP and ethics commisioner called on you for swearing in an airport.

    It certainly never happened for Liberal MP John McCallum when he was too drunk to get on a plane at an airport.

    Its been 24 hours since the actual credible allegations of possible criminal wrong doing came to light.

    Harper set a new record for most ethical and accountable Prime Minister of Canada today.

    ReplyDelete
  45. Peter,

    Speaking of Soudas, what a tool that guy is.

    He looked ridiculous yesterday.

    Rest assured today I feel Teneckye, has the capacity to top that performance, and look even more ridiculous.

    All CPC brown nosers will be out in full force.

    I must admit I am enjoying it.

    ReplyDelete
  46. Shadow,

    Note that nowhere did I say "credible allegations." I said allegations, rumours, and the like. How can I provide you with these links when I made no such claim in the first place?

    My point is that the second these rumours popped up, there should have been an investigation. Jaffer has been out of the caucus for quite awhile now, and no one within the Conservative Party or the government bothered to check up on what hes doing and saying from time to time? I don't find that "credible."

    However, Harper didn't do anything. Despite what turned out to be a serious leak and possibly damaging problem, he did zip until the very last minute when the media broke the story. That doesn't seem to be too smart to me. When you spring a leak in the boat, you plug it right away, you don't wait until the water is up to your thighs to start bailing it out.

    ReplyDelete
  47. Peter,

    Since Harpo is the most ethical and open and honest PM we have ever had, he will have no problem handing over all unredacted documents, as ordered by parliament.

    He will not use prorogation in order to stave off defeat on confidence motions.

    He will not use prorogation, in order to shut down a committee's work.

    He will face the media and answer questions.

    He will tell us what the hell is going on with Jaffer and Guergis.

    ReplyDelete
  48. Volkov you're being unfair to the point of being ridiculous.

    If Harper chased around the 98% false rumours floating about Ottawa he'd never have time to govern the country.

    He isn't the RCMP or the ethics investigator. Its actually not at all his responsibility to take action.

    He did so out of an extreme dedication to accountability.

    And I don't know any law enforcement agency that takes actions without first seeing some credible evidence of wrong doing or recieving a complaint from the public.

    There are enough real crimes to work on without going after rumoured ones.

    ReplyDelete
  49. "My point is that the second these rumours popped up, there should have been an investigation."

    Your point is ridiculous.

    How about that investigation into the house Geurgis lives in that the Liberals launched ?

    A ten second call to Scotiabank would have resolved that and made it clear it was a perfectly normal above the board transaction.

    We don't go around wasting the resources of law enforcement in this country over rumours.

    Unless and until there are credible allegations it is premature and wrong to act.

    ReplyDelete
  50. Holy Shit 49

    You been drinkin' The Kool Aid ??

    No the only reason this has all happened is someone put out allegations that Guergis-Jaffer have been using her position and connections to get money or favours out of the Govt.

    The "Blackberry" thing ain't it either. Has to be way more serious than that to get Harper off his fat ass. Probably some link into the PMO and "dirty dealing" going on.

    As to Shadow. When you're "paid' to put it out you do even when it is so plainly crap. We're gonna need a front end loader shortly to pick up all his BS !

    ReplyDelete
  51. Shadow,

    I know he isn't the RCMP or the ethics investigator. Which is why maybe he should have called them so they could do the job for him.

    Heck, even set up a small inter-party inquiry, a complete Conservative affair, would have been something. But he didn't, and now he has reaped what he sowed.

    I'm not being unfair. I'd expect it from a Liberal government to. If you want to remain accountable and plug all the leaks in your boat, you best head them off quickly. Harper didn't do this, and now, whether or not that Star article changed anything, he's getting chewed up, and rightfully so.

    I also fail to see how I'm being unreasonable. I expect from the great accountability crusader Harper to be shrewd enough to ask whether or not this guy, Rahim Jaffer, a former Parliamentarian with an odd record, who is married to a minister, and has apparent connections within the Party, has been up to anything shady. I mean, for Christ's sake, it wasn't as if Jaffer was hiding this stuff. It was right on his website. Two clicks, and I got to it, while it was still up.

    Is it too much to ask that my Prime Minister does something smart, not only for himself but for Canadians? Is that so unreasonable?

    ReplyDelete
  52. Volkov do you think the PMO has the resources to monitor the lives of MP's and Senator's spouses ?

    Nothing Jaffer had done prior to the Toronto Star report involved the gov't in any way or his wife.

    I still don't know where these "rumours" were prior to the report, even non-credible ones. Still waiting on some kind of link.

    I know i've never heard anything about it before yesterday.

    It was only the specific allegation that he directly promised he could get clients gov't grants for their green energy projects that prompted the PM's action.

    BTW The RCMP and ethic investigator can launch their own investigation at any point w/o the PM's prompting.

    Harper did the right thing today.

    As far as I can tell you're knocking him for not being a mind reader or not having a KGB operation inside his office that wire taps the conversations of spouses of parliamentarians.

    ReplyDelete
  53. Volkov

    I see Shadow subscribes to the "bullshit baffles brains" school.

    Another load to be wheeled away !

    ReplyDelete
  54. Shadow,

    "Volkov do you think the PMO has the resources to monitor the lives of MP's and Senator's spouses ?"

    Uhm, yes, I do. Especially when its a Minister, and when its known, and when its in your own self-interest to do so.

    Think about it. This is twice now that lightning has struck against Harper on the matter of Ministers and their spouses/relationships. First with Bernier, now with Guergis. Does anyone ever learn there?

    ReplyDelete
  55. Peter,

    "I will run the most open, honest, transparent, and accountable government in Canadian history"

    Stephen J Harper

    Circa 2006

    ReplyDelete
  56. "I will run the most open, honest, transparent, and accountable government in Canadian history"

    Stephen J Harper


    Umm? Yeah Sure? Right On !!

    Told you !! Bullshit baffles brains. He's just got to keep shoveling !!

    ReplyDelete
  57. Peter,

    It was the RCMP, being brought in to investigate the income trust leak, that sank the Liberals.

    Zachardelli, blew a hole in the campaign of the Liberals in 06.

    Judy W, and the CPC smeared Goodale, pretty damn good.

    It all came to nothing though didn't it?

    This has got it all, alleged influence peddling, busty hookers, drugs, booze, and lord knows what else.

    Maybe this will finally blow the lid off the sanctimonious conservatives.

    ReplyDelete
  58. Peter,

    Just one more thought.

    I kinda feel sorry for Shadow.

    His tag team buddy CS is not on here to help him.

    ReplyDelete
  59. 49,Volkov

    http://www.cbc.ca/politics/story/2010/04/09/guergis-leaving-cabinet.html

    Guergis faces RCMP probe

    "Those allegations had to do with Ms. Guergis's conduct and do not involve any other minister, member of Parliament, or federal government employee," Harper said, without providing more details about the allegations.

    Read more: http://www.cbc.ca/politics/story/2010/04/09/guergis-leaving-cabinet.html#ixzz0kdSCxsFv

    ReplyDelete
  60. "Sources tell CBC News that the prime minister received "credible" allegations late Thursday night and Guergis did not volunteer any information herself."

    Oh, I see where Shadow gets his language from.

    ReplyDelete
  61. So Harpo is now saying he only received "Credible" allegations thursday night.

    BULLSHIT!!!!!!!!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  62. Incidentally, Éric, this best-base-scenario post would make a terrific monthly feature.

    Great job. You and your work are why I keep coming back here. The discussions in the comments mostly irritate me, but the front page content is excellent.

    ReplyDelete
  63. Harpo's first instinct, is always to "Deny" " "Deny" "Deny"

    He is not only involved in a cover up of Afghan torture allegations, he is also in cover up mode over Guergis.

    He damn well knew everything, and was just praying, it would never come to the surface.

    After all he is never wrong about anything.

    What a piece of work.

    ReplyDelete
  64. So Harpo is now saying he only received "Credible" allegations thursday night.


    Bu to move so precipitously those "credible" allegations must be really something !!

    Just how crooked can she be??

    ReplyDelete
  65. --- Great job. You and your work are why I keep coming back here. The discussions in the comments mostly irritate me, but the front page content is excellent.

    I feel the same way.

    ReplyDelete
  66. "The discussions in the comments mostly irritate me, but the front page content is excellent."

    We love you too, Ira.

    But I'd also like to give kudos to Eric on this scenario. Very interesting to be sure, and always a catalyst for good discussion. Look forward to April!

    ReplyDelete
  67. Guergis's resignation has been bubbling for weeks. Yesterday could've simply been the straw that broke the camel's back, and Harper is hoping that she will be vindicated by an RCMP investigation so that he can get her back into caucus (as a backbencher), wipe his hands clean, and say he did the right thing.

    That is far more likely than something very sinister. A lot of Conservatives have been grumbling about Guergis, Harper finally realised he couldn't pretend everything was fine anymore.

    So let's all calm down until we find out more. Constantly asking "What happened !!!1!" here in the comments section won't do anything.

    ReplyDelete
  68. Ok Volkov, let's send a memo to the PMO suggesting they create a possibly illegal program to use gov't resources to spy on private citizens !

    Lol. Aren't you the guys who complain that everything is run out of the PMO already? Which is it going to be ?

    BTW - I don't get language or talking points from anyone. Still waiting for Peter to tell me where to get my pay cheque (apparently i'm a paid operative don'tcha know).

    If there is synchronicity its because the conclusion is so bloody obvious to everyone except the most intense Anti-Harper partisans.

    ReplyDelete
  69. Why no green best case scenario?

    ReplyDelete
  70. I don't think I ever projected a seat for the Greens in March.

    ReplyDelete
  71. Eric a Green best case scenario would still be fun.

    If only to see which party it would end up hurting the most if May ran a strong campaign.

    ReplyDelete
  72. "apparently i'm a paid operative don'tcha know"

    When I worked for the Reform Party, I actually suggested that the party do exactly that. Have trained internet forum participants shape debate and sway opinion.

    To my knowledge, they never did it.

    ReplyDelete
  73. Jeremy: Why no green best case scenario?

    And in any case, Éric's model is not well set up to answer that question today. (As always, that's not a knock on the model; it's just the way it works.)

    But why no Bloc scenario?

    ReplyDelete
  74. Well, you can just go back over the month to find the best single projection for the Bloc. I think the most I had them at was 55.

    It's not like for the other parties, where I am using several different polls to get a best result.

    ReplyDelete
  75. Must say I'm impressed with Harper's immediate action here. Likely Guergis has done nothing criminal, although her spouse may have. When in doubt fire! This also gave Harper a good reason to rid himself of Guergis. Shadow, she'll never get near cabinet again or a PS job with Harper as PM. Look at the way Bernier is treated - like the plague! Francis Fox was back in cabinet shortly after his miscue.

    Guergis should have resigned long ago.

    ReplyDelete
  76. 49-Volkov

    OK

    Lisa Raitt leaves a tape recorder behind at a TV station containing something less that nice remarks.

    Is demoted

    Maxime Bernier leaves behind NATO secret documents at his girlfriends. Is kicked out of Cabinet

    Guergis has several "meltdowns" and is not only kicked out of Cabinet but out of the caucus as well.

    So whatever the allegations are they are far worse than either of the other people I've laid out.

    So what the Hell did she do ???

    ReplyDelete
  77. Shadow,

    I applaud your efforts to try and reason with some of these posters.

    Sadly due process was never or Rule of Law was meant for people who vote conservative.

    Your are correct the speed upon which he moved to insulate his party and office.

    You have asked for proof or links and no one backed up the smears.

    Now they continue to speculate again convicting Helena in the court of public opinion as the intolerant left.

    It if funny watching Sid Ryan with the sins of the husband and the pile on that we both have noticed.

    Helena has shown bad judgement with her office regarding the Blackberry and allowing him to use any resources.

    The KGB line was bang on.

    ReplyDelete
  78. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  79. Correction Sid Ryan did not agree with the pile on with the tantrum, letters either or using Rahim's problems against her losing her post on Michael Coren today.

    They did not discuss the new allegations of the misuse of government property. (Blackberry) his lobbying.

    ReplyDelete
  80. Earl who got a promotion today ?

    Rona Ambrose.

    Remember how she was on the downward track after her disaster at environment?

    Lisa Rait is alive and kickin too.

    So there is room for redemption in cabinet despite scandals.

    I don't think she'll ever be a cabinet minister again under Harper.

    If her husband and her are completely cleared of everything I see nothing wrong with a PS position.

    ReplyDelete
  81. Peter,

    The new line of conservatives is

    1. Rationalize.
    2. Rationalize.
    3. Rationalize.
    4. The left is intolerant.
    5. Guergis is only being attacked
    because she is a woman.
    6. Guergis is only being attacked
    because of her husband.
    7. Lefties are meanies to be
    talking about this.
    8. This is all the fault of the
    MSM.
    9. This is all the fault of the
    Liberals.
    10. "Yeah but the Liberals were
    worse"
    11. These allegations are all
    unfounded, and untrue.
    12. The CPC can throw around
    unfounded allegations, because
    God speaks to them directly,
    so what they say is true.
    13. The CPC will keep bringing up
    a 10 year old scandal, to
    justify all their own
    scandals.
    14. It is not really a scandal, if
    it happens to a conservative
    MP.
    15. The CPC, is the party of truth
    honesty, and purity, this must
    not be questioned.
    16. Harper is God.

    ReplyDelete
  82. It is truly hilarious watching the usual scolds trying to defend the indefensible today.

    I suspect we'll soon see claims that Bonnie and Clyde were actually Liberals who infiltrated the CPC because that's where the action is, and of course to make poor Stevie cry.

    Hahahahahahahahahahahaha!

    ReplyDelete
  83. Only two months and three weeks to go before Bonnie gets the 6 year pension. She'll need it, being unemployable after this.

    ReplyDelete
  84. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  85. A new line for the CPC.

    "Hypocrites are us"

    "Sanctimonious scolds are us"

    "Hey we already fooled you twice, the third time will be the charm for us, you fools are stupid enough to give us a majority"

    "Harper is GOD"

    ReplyDelete
  86. 49

    16. Harper is God.

    But he and his people are known as "Control Freaks", right??

    Control Fraks are masters at getting every bit of info so the control is better for their purposes.

    Which to me means Harper Knew !! Did not act until it was likely to get to the public.

    This weekend should be fun as the "leaks" are absolutely guaranteed !!

    ReplyDelete
  87. Peter,

    Harper is a master control freak.

    He runs the PMO, with an iron fist.

    Of course he knew everything that was going on.

    He is now going to be exposed, for what he truly is.

    At least Shadow, now has his tag team buddy CS, GET YOUR SHOVEL READY, there is bound to be some major bullshit being flung around.

    Hey had to duck, some almost hit me.

    ReplyDelete
  88. Did you notice 4-5 more posts with no links to back up the smears?

    When Sid Ryan does not back the witch hunt you know the intolerant left have gone too far!

    It must be humilating after watching how the Liberals failed to treat the serious allegations regarding Adscam from Sheila Fraser and this PM upon a serious allegation removed her from cabinet and caucus with 24 hours.

    ReplyDelete
  89. CS,

    I actually never expect much out of you.

    You keep up your pathetic rationalizing.

    You keep up your pathetic whining.

    You keep talking about a 10 year old scandal.

    I guess I am allowed to do the same.

    Don't vote CPC, because of the airbus scandal.

    Dont vote CPC, because of Mulroney, and bags of money.

    Don't vote CPC, because well they pretty much bugger up everything when they are in office.

    ReplyDelete
  90. 49

    Keep telling you the only answer is a front end loader. At the rate those two dump it better be a BIG one !!

    ReplyDelete
  91. 49

    It must be humilating after watching how the Liberals failed to treat the serious allegations regarding Adscam from Sheila Fraser and this PM upon a serious allegation removed her from cabinet and caucus with 24 hours.

    See what happens when you allow a primitive to be brainwashed??

    Seems to me Martin set up Gomery to precisely answer that but of course that wasn't included in CS programming !

    ReplyDelete
  92. Peter,

    At least Paul Martin, had the cahonees, to call an inquiry into the advertising scandal.

    CS, you blathering fool, when is Harper going to call an inquiry into the Afghan detainee issue.

    When is Harper going to respect the will of parliament and hand over unredacted documents.

    When are we going to know about Guergis?

    My shovel is ready.

    ReplyDelete
  93. Peter,

    Kinda of repeated what you just said.

    Great ready to duck for the mind blowing wit of CS.

    ReplyDelete
  94. Still no links?

    Tantrum letter sent to Wayne Easter who is he protecting? Why did deepthroat not file formal complaint with Transport Canada and get an investigation?

    Smells like the wafer phone calls and the press never followed up...

    How many months did the Liberals progrogue parliament to stop Sheila Fraser Adscam report?

    Liberals record on Public Inquiries...not too good shut them down, make it impossible to lay blame.

    Somalia, APEC, Adscam, Tainted Blood...the list goes on.

    Paul Martin said Dingwall resigned and Dingwall aid he was fired sued and won...next?

    Thanks again for comparing actions of this PM vs Liberals.

    Some children never learn.

    ReplyDelete
  95. CS,

    Give it up already.

    Your bullshit and strawmen arguments are tiresome.

    You never stay on topic, or on point.

    You rant, and rave and never make any sense.

    Your crap is useless.

    ReplyDelete
  96. CS

    You really are the most illogical poster on here

    Get the hence to a Nunnery

    You are good for nothing else. Cease blabbing, as all you are showing is your terminal stupidity

    ReplyDelete
  97. Peter,

    Did that last post of CS, even make any sense?

    Gawd how embarassing it must be to be the author of something like that.

    It had nothing to do with anything.

    ReplyDelete
  98. Still no links?

    Awkward...

    Just when liberals thought it was safe to start identifying themselves as such, an acclaimed, veteran psychiatrist is making the case that the ideology motivating them is actually a mental disorder.
    -The Liberal Mind Dr. Lyle Rossiter

    ReplyDelete
  99. CS why bother ?

    49 steps, Liberal supporter, peter - they have no shame.

    They'll work themselves into a lather, saying just deranged wild eyed things without any proof or evidence.

    When it turns out their latest "gotcha" scandal didn't happen they don't apologize, don't retract, don't introspect.

    They just move on to the next scandal and embarrass and cheapen themselves in the process.


    Where would the Liberals be in the polls if they had actually formulate some policies and advanged an economic agenda ?

    Instead of wildly jumping from non-existent scandal to non-existent scandal.

    One can only wonder.

    ReplyDelete
  100. Well you Liberal types are no different than those of us on this side. When Gagliano was up to his ears, so it seemed in Adscam, we were hollering for his resignation. Finally someone decided they'd had enough and recalled him from Denmark. Should he ever have been in Cabinet, let alone been an ambassador?

    ReplyDelete
  101. Just to follow up on Gagliano:

    "On November 17, 2004, an article in the New York Daily News alleged that Gagliano was associated with the Bonanno organized crime family. In the article, former capo Frank Lino, now an informer for the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation, is quoted as saying Gagliano was introduced to him during a meeting with other mob members in Montreal. Gagliano has strongly denied the allegations. It is not the first time Gagliano's name has been linked to organized crime. In 1994, La Presse reported that Gagliano was the bookkeeper for Agostino Cuntrera, cousin of cocaine baron Alfonso Caruana, who was involved in a gangland slaying of Paul Violi in Montreal in 1978. Cuntrera was subsequently convicted of murder.[3] Gagliano denies any links to the Mafia.[4] Gagliano now resides with his family on a vineyard in Dunham, Quebec and winters in Florida since 2006, and no further charges have been brought against him. (CanWest News Service, October 2006, 2007)"

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alfonso_Gagliano

    ReplyDelete
  102. Earl, Shadow,


    I know they won't apologize for their posts.

    As I said due process and rule of law is not intended for conservatives.

    We witness an over reaction to Ann at Ottawa. See her jokes taken out of context and being labelled as hatespeech.

    As I said the left are intolerant and quick to attack.

    Bernier was right to be booted for not being careful with important documents.

    The H.G. smear job crossed the line.

    They did the same with our Health minister over H1N1.

    The TStar allegations are serious and swift action was taken.

    Did any of the clowns provide a post to any other serious allegation? No just more insults.

    The PMO reacted when a substantial allegations was made. Kudos!

    The tantrum, letter writing stuff was gutter politics.

    RCMP were called in, will investigate the lobbying activities of her husband who has been out since 2008 and use of gov't property.

    Every time they go all-in over playing their hands someone is send packing.

    How many Liberals have lost their jobs in the past 12 months?

    Who returned to the east after the wafer fallout?

    Who left after the H1N1 CBC lineup stunt?
    I did not support the witchunt but agree with the S.H's swift reaction to these allegations.

    ReplyDelete
  103. Shadow: Eric a Green best case scenario would still be fun.

    If only to see which party it would end up hurting the most if May ran a strong campaign.


    Ah, but which campaign?

    Several Green fundamentals are non-negotiable. Sustainability is key; Elizabeth May has repeatedly spoken out about addressing the "triple deficit" we're facing in this country (environmental, economic and fiscal). A positive approach is a given.

    Beyond that, a lefty Green campaign would eat into NDP support. However, the Greens I see are small-c conservatives in many respects. At election time they'll have the Tory vote in their sights.

    Elizabeth May has a leftish background but she'll be running against Gary Lunn, so her optimal local strategy is also to go blue-green. It will definitely be an interesting election.

    ReplyDelete
  104. So to summarize:

    1. I suspect that many of us are falliable, and that members within our friends and family can make mistakes, some of them potentially criminal acts that may affect your career (Jaffer & Geurgis).

    2. The challenges of selecting a cabinet, besides gender and region issues, is that you do NOT know entirely who your caucus members are, and what they will DO IN THE future, especially when they have a previous "clean" history. When they make minor mistakes, it is appropriate to apologize and remedy the error. When a repeated or major mistake occurs then, resigning, and removal is in order. (Harper's cabinet selection challenges)

    3. I noticed this week at work, that we talked about the new hospital (and its problems), Tigger Woods, and silly things. Never was this or the government came up in conversation. Over the long term, I doubt this will have a lagre impact on the voting public, because ultimately they will be voting on the issues of the election, and their local candidate. If Geurgis is NOT in the election, then it will be even less of an issue.

    ReplyDelete
  105. Anyone want to guess whether Rick Hillier will be announced as GG on monday morning ?


    If we were ever in need of some messaging to change the channel now would be the time !

    ReplyDelete
  106. Rather than General Scumbag I'd much prefer an aboriginal as GG.

    Think Phil Fontaine for example but there are several others equally worthy.

    Last thing this country needs right now is another military "hero" type.

    ReplyDelete
  107. Rick Hillier is being smeared by the Liberals, bigoted, sexist posters in their blogs.

    They will want someone who is unattractive, believes in Catastropic end of world fairytales to implement a global Carbon, bank transaction tax, big Government, eugenics and entitled to their entitlements.

    They will be looking for a strong male type that share their idealogical views.

    Castro, Chavez....

    Facial hair, fatigue apparel is important for many in the left.

    ReplyDelete
  108. 49
    Let's play a little game here.

    Milliken rules against the Govt on the privilege question. A motion is moved by say Jack Harris to censure the Govt. It passes

    Does Harper, given current polling and the approaching G8-G20 take that defeat as confidence?

    ReplyDelete
  109. Peter,

    Phil Fontaine would be a great pick for GG. He has a very compelling personal story.

    I would also like to see Rick Hansen, a true Canadian hero and inspiration.

    Just to toss this one out, we are a hockey mad nation, how about Bobby Orr?


    CS, you are the biggest twit, on here. You never tire of posting inane bullshit.

    The last GG appointed by Paul Martin Madame Jean, is just so unattractive isn't she. (NOT)

    Before that we had Clarkson, another hideous monster.

    You really add nothing, but garbage, and a total lack of awareness on any subject.

    I find your last post disgusting, and foolish.

    Hallmark traits I have come to expect from you.

    ReplyDelete
  110. 49

    Or the Great Gretzky if you want hockey.

    That said I think a native is a great choice. As well as Phil there are a few others who could fill the post.

    Please no more media types for a while though.

    ReplyDelete
  111. 49

    Susan Delacourt

    http://thestar.blogs.com/politics/2010/04/what-took-so-long-.html

    ReplyDelete
  112. Peter,

    I think the opposition should force the detainee/document issue.

    I think the Liberals, and the opposition should force an election.

    The headlines coming out for the family values party, over the next few weeks, are not going to be pretty.

    Let the Liberals, present a platform and take their chances.

    Just as an aside though, I saw Jack Layton on the news yesterday, and he looksm a little tired, and if he has lost some weight.

    I know he is going through his Chemo right now, and I dont know if he could manage a rigorous campaign.

    I wish him all the best, and I hope he gets well, and beats his cancer.


    CS, Just so you know, fool commenting on the appearance of someone is SEXISM

    ReplyDelete
  113. I am guessing both Peter and 49 come from broken homes and lack a strong father figure.
    ......
    Dr. Rossiter says the liberal agenda preys on weakness and feelings of inferiority in the population by:

    creating and reinforcing perceptions of victimization;
    satisfying infantile claims to entitlement, indulgence and compensation;

    augmenting primitive feelings of envy;

    rejecting the sovereignty of the individual, subordinating him to the will of the government.
    .............

    Nothing personal just an observation the many personal attacks on women and conservative values.

    ReplyDelete
  114. I'm not sure the opposition should force an election.

    The real question is what will Harper do if the House votes censure?

    Will he say that's confidence and go for dissolution or not ?

    With the current scandal still in play going to the people might be problematic.

    ReplyDelete
  115. CS

    Can't speak for 49 but any more personal attacks like that will require me to take action.

    And no I don't come from a broken home!

    ReplyDelete
  116. Eric

    Please look at CS post just above. IMO an unwarranted personal attack.

    ReplyDelete
  117. Peter,

    I don't think Harper has any interest in an election right now.

    He knows that just the mention of the RCMP, is what sunk the Liberals in 06.

    I am now leaning towards him trying to find a way out of this detainee mess he created.

    He sure doesn't want to be found in contempt of parliament. If that happens I do not think he will seek dissolution.


    CS, I believe you meet the clinical definition of a mentally deranged individual

    ReplyDelete
  118. Peter,

    Don't respond to CS crap.

    I will do the same.

    It is funny when he gets called on his BS, that is what he always sinks to.

    Do you ever notice that?

    Just ignore his garbage.

    ReplyDelete
  119. I feel that once he descended to attacking our families he had got beyond anything approaching reasonable debate.

    Scurrilous hardly describes it.

    ReplyDelete
  120. 49

    More on yesterdays BIG story in today's Star right on the front page. Looks like there will be some interesting revelations ahead ??

    ReplyDelete
  121. Peter,

    That is right.

    He know nothing about us, or are families.

    He is always preaching about an intolerant left, and then he comes off with something like that.

    He is always crying about the left using personal attacks, and then he posts something so ridiculous.

    I actually am glad that is up there for all to see.

    It shows CS for the hypocrite, and intolerant mean spirited individual he is.

    ReplyDelete
  122. A question about a broken home is not a personal attack, nice deflection.

    Where is the link?

    I have listed an expert who refers to mental illness. I can also include other experts regarding a pattern of behaviour.

    You may not like being asked about your family or your history.

    I am looking forward Peter, 49 to third party verifiable links regarding your family status othewise we only have your word.

    ReplyDelete
  123. So the vendetta continues Eric.

    I suggest a gag on CS. This kind of personal slander and attack is not acceptable here I assume?

    ReplyDelete
  124. Peter,

    Our families, and ourselves personal history are not the business of anyone on here.

    Only CS, has the gall.

    Let his post stand for what it is.

    Do not sink to his level, Peter

    Do not respond

    ReplyDelete
  125. 49

    I have written to Eric via email. Do not intend to answer CS in any way.

    ReplyDelete
  126. Rahim Jaffer is a private citizen, spouse and ex MP from 2008.

    I have read many posts regarding his family, character and mistakes in public.

    Since the bar has been lowered by some, a few questions and link from those would be fair.

    Have you made any mistakes in public, have you ever been charged?

    These are fair questions since targeting a private citizen is fair game.

    Some posters have accused Shadow and conservatives of being paid.

    I look forward to those posters in clearing up any potential confusion about their past or present.

    ReplyDelete
  127. CS,

    An expert who says Liberalism is a mental disorder is no expert. He is a quack.

    And you are no longer welcome here. I've had quite enough of your incoherent posting.

    ReplyDelete
  128. Comments will be on moderation for the weekend. Go out and enjoy the weather.

    ReplyDelete
  129. 49
    "I am now leaning towards him trying to find a way out of this detainee mess he created.

    He sure doesn't want to be found in contempt of parliament. If that happens I do not think he will seek dissolution.
    "
    Given the current media frenzy I think you are probably correct. Going public in the next couple of weeks could be really harmful We await further developments

    ReplyDelete
  130. CS please show some decorum and common manners. One doesn't accuse his or her opponents of being mentally ill because they disagree with him. That's intolerable. You'd be screaming blue murder if someone tried that with. Your behavior is inexcusable!

    ReplyDelete
  131. CS,

    An expert who says Liberalism is a mental disorder is no expert. He is a quack.

    And you are no longer welcome here. I've had quite enough of your incoherent posting
    .
    Attention all atheists: There really is a God!


    Thanks, Éric. The most annoying thing about being even slightly "left" of centre is being forced to put up with so much of someone's bullshit, because they invariably accuse you of "intolerance" when you don't. The price we pay for freedom I suppose. I enjoy a good rant, even from the right wingers, but not when every single comment is simply an excuse to segue into yet another rendition of basically the same rant. There is a huge difference between someone like Shadow regularly poking my opinions, and the irrelevant personal attacks of the now banned one.

    ReplyDelete
  132. John OT:

    Just finished Ms. Wente's column and it makes good sense to me especially the part about developing our Hydro resources in the North. Can you explain to me in logical and dollars and cents terms to me where she is wrong. I know she is relying on information from those who are very opposed to green energy. That in and of itself though, doesn't make them wrong.

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/welcome-to-the-wacky-world-of-green-power/article1529760/

    Thanks,

    Earl

    ReplyDelete
  133. Peter,

    Hey, I go offline for the day and look what happens.

    I read the article you linked, and I think there will be worse to come.


    Earl,

    Thank you for your remarks. You know how much I respect you and your opinions. Maybe I annoy you sometimes because I am a partisan, feel free to call me on anything you think goes over the line.

    Regards Sir


    Shadow,

    We disagree, but you have never attacked personally. Thank you for that.

    ReplyDelete
  134. 49 Sir:

    I'm partisan as well. Sometimes we are on different sides of the divide. Just curious as to your take on Ms. Wente's column on another topic altogether.

    BTW I think Mr. Harper has used the RCMP to put an end to questions surrounding Geurgis, as well as rid the party of the distraction she has become. I don't think she will be found guilty of any criminal wrongdoing. This is Stevie playing the game the way it has been played before.

    If you read the Geurgis stuff you'll see a picture of her $880,000 "mansion". I live in an area where $300,000 would buy what she appears to have. Maybe I'm out of my league here but I'd say she over paid for her "mansion".

    Good fortune,

    Earl

    ReplyDelete
  135. Eric I too like your "Best Case Senarios". I hope you do them on a regular basis. Thanks for going to moderated comments and for looking at all of this nonsense, including mine, of course.

    ReplyDelete
  136. Earl - Where I live $880,000 would get you a nice two-bedroom condo.

    ReplyDelete
  137. Earl:
    "Just finished Ms. Wente's column and it makes good sense to me especially the part about developing our Hydro resources in the North."

    I think I may have had this discussion with you before? Anyway just read Wente's article and she is quite correct. Worked for years in the solar industry and the kind of costs she mentions are reasonably accurate. Can't speak to wind except that Denmark has really backed off.

    Cheapest long term source of power is flowing water. Quebec recognised that and used it. No reason why Ontario can't do the same. Long distance transmission is a problem but even that can apparently be handled with acceptable losses. If Quebec can do it no reason why Ontario can't.

    ReplyDelete
  138. Hydro Quebec... one of the largest eco-disasters in Canada.

    "the James Bay Project submerged about 11,000 km² of boreal forest"

    (that won't make any methyl mercury will it??)

    destroying coastal habitat with dead trees, wildlife deaths, salmon spawning,.....


    But hey... it's natural so it must be good right?? All told, I think I would rather have the Oil sands.... less impact on the environment.

    ReplyDelete
  139. Peter you may have told me that before but I didn't remember it. Thanks! Is Wente correct that with wind and solar you have to have equivalent back up power generation? That is the way I see it.

    The more I read the more I'm convinced McGuinty is on the wrong track. Don't want to vote for Harris II though. Can only hope that the Premier sees the error of his ways before we go down the drain here.

    ReplyDelete
  140. Ira: http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=2784876

    ReplyDelete
  141. Earl:
    " the more I'm convinced McGuinty is on the wrong track"

    Yes I think he is. Until every drop of power is squeezed out of moving water the rest should be left alone.

    Backup capacity is a Wente said, equal to what wind and solar can produce.

    ReplyDelete
  142. 10 point Tory lead:

    http://www.nationalpost.com/news/canada/politics/story.html?id=2789808

    The speaker will rule. The vote will be held.

    I hear as of a few days ago Iggy started scrambling for a campaign plane.

    Really Iggy ?

    Really?

    ReplyDelete
  143. "the James Bay Project submerged about 11,000 km² of boreal forest"

    (that won't make any methyl mercury will it??)

    destroying coastal habitat with dead trees, wildlife deaths, salmon spawning,.....
    "

    So it's OK to poison every downstream, kill off aboriginals in your view but not to submerge forests to create non-polluting power?

    Man that is one wired perspective !!

    And NO it won't create methyl mercury !

    ReplyDelete
  144. Earl:
    "BTW I think Mr. Harper has used the RCMP to put an end to questions surrounding Geurgis, as well as rid the party of the distraction she has become. "

    Actually he may have made it worse by something you may not have heard. In part of his announcement he said the RCMP was called in because "of her conduct" which to me indicates there are serious questions as to the legality of something or things she has done.

    Beieve this is far from put to bed !!

    ReplyDelete
  145. The Ipsos-Reid poll ended on April 8, it will be interesting to see how polls taken after the Guergis resignation will look.

    Hopefully IR puts the details up by tomorrow morning so that I can post about it.

    ReplyDelete
  146. Eric, Geurgis has been in the news the entire time the poll was being taken. The CPC might drop a few points or even gain a point on Harper's decisive action. If the CPC does drop I believe, as with prorogation, the drop will be temporary barring scandalous revelations. Canadians so far are not inspired by Iggy.
    Of course this poll could be an outlier.

    ReplyDelete
  147. Speculation on Jaffer:

    http://rabble.ca/blogs/bloggers/djclimenhaga/2010/04/whodunit-who-sandbagged-rahim-jaffer-parliamentary-has-been

    ReplyDelete
  148. "The speaker will rule. The vote will be held. "

    And the Tories will lose.

    At which point Harper will go for dissolution and the GG will say "No Way" !!

    ReplyDelete
  149. Scandal Envy:

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/feasting-on-scraps-in-a-capital-starved-for-scandal/article1530896/

    ReplyDelete
  150. Geoffry Stevens take on Geurgis and the possible scandal:

    http://news.therecord.com/Opinions/Editorials/article/696894

    ReplyDelete
  151. The Iggy Riddle and why he isn't connecting:

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/bruce-anderson/the-political-class/article1530555/

    ReplyDelete
  152. "Making Jaffer appear a renegade scofflaw is infinitely superior from the Conservative perspective than admitting he is a symbol of a government that has one set of rules for itself and its friends, and another for the rest of us."

    Says it all IMO. They are as crooked as their arch enemy the Liberals, eh Shadow ?

    ReplyDelete
  153. Peter:

    "At which point Harper will go for dissolution and the GG will say "No Way" !!"

    You are kidding right? Seriously mate! With the RCMP investigating Geurgis wouldn't you want an election, really?

    ReplyDelete
  154. Earl: Just finished Ms. Wente's column and it makes good sense to me especially the part about developing our Hydro resources in the North. Can you explain to me in logical and dollars and cents terms to me where she is wrong.

    She's right and wrong. Let's cover the wrong parts first, if Éric is willing to let this off-topic post through.

    Solar feed-in can make sense because it comes when we need it most, during the summer when air conditioners are going full blast. At that point we can pay more than a dollar per KWh (sorry, no reference; feel free to refute me) so $0.80 makes sense.

    Even if we need gas-fired backup plants ("peaker plants", because they cover the peak load) we're still better off than using a full-time gas-fired plant because we've reduced the amount of fossil fuel burned, even if we haven't eliminated it.

    Having said that, Wente is mostly right. If electricity is under-priced we will collectively use more of it. You don't save energy by hiding its cost in your tax bill.

    The Green Party of Ontario position is very clear and I support it unreservedly: charge real costs in a level playing field and let the market sort things out. "Real costs" means full accounting for the cost of carbon through fully offset taxes and setting aside the cost of nuclear waste disposal up front as part of the power cost. "A level playing field" means that small generators should be charged reasonable feed-in costs, not the historical barriers to entry they've faced.

    With real costs and a level playing field, producers can decide how to generate electricity to make the greatest profit. Consumers can decide how much electricity they want to buy at the actual cost of production, instead of seeing those costs hidden in their taxes now or down the road for environmental degradation and nuclear waste management. They may decide to invest in reducing electrons instead of buying them, but they'll see where their dollars are going instead of paying them to the tax man.

    The right mix may or may not have a lot of wind or solar power. It may or may not have nuclear plants. Coal is unlikely to make sense in any scenario. Gas will probably be around for peaker plants for some time. Large-scale and small-scale hydro will continue to be a massive contributor, but only where it makes sense; run-of-the-river micro-hydro must still make a buck. Coal is unlikely to make sense in any scenario unless CSS actually works. (Don't hold your breath on that one.)

    McGuinty's heart is in the right place but he has the wrong end of the stick here.

    ReplyDelete
  155. Eric;
    Shadow said "10 point Tory lead:"

    So lets see what the other polls for this time period said ??

    How about a comparison ??

    This one looks way out of line ?

    ReplyDelete
  156. Peter there is zero basis for your claim that the GG would refuse a request for dissolution.

    Mr. Lee has sent a letter to the GG claiming that dissolution would be obstructing parliament's investigation.

    But she's done that once already, with prorogation.

    Based on her personal behaviour in the past we know can assume the GG will grant dissolution.

    Not to mention a refusal to grant an election has never occured after this length of time has passed from the last one.

    ReplyDelete
  157. Evening All,

    Peter,

    I would just like to get in Shadow's line before he does.

    "Ipsos Reid doesn't poll the CPC higher that what they should reality does"

    Sorry Shadow, but I know that one is coming.

    Eric I hope you will allow through.

    ReplyDelete
  158. Ipsos Reid's polls are Tory-leaning (some say they're quite literally biased, but who knows), so the 10-point lead isn't as impressive as it should be for the Conservatives.

    My guess is that the lead varies between a low of 3 to a high of 6, obviously for the Conservatives.

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  159. Mr. Lee has sent a letter to the GG claiming that dissolution would be obstructing parliament's investigation.

    Mr. Lee is absolutely correct and if the Govt is found in contempt of Parliament to try for dissolution to escape the consequences would truly be contemptible.

    Further the GG is the Queen's representative not Harper's toady. This would have to be referred to Buck House obviously as it would constitute a very serious threat to the rights of Parliament.

    I see Laurie Hahn has got caught with his fingers in the goodies !! 1 million $ grant to golf club in his riding from the EAP !! Another Tory crook.

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  160. Check this new Quebec poll by Leger out:

    BQ - 38% (about the same as last month)

    Libs - 21% (down 4%)

    Tories - 17% (unchanged)

    NDP - 17% (up 3%)

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/spector-vision/federal-libe...

    Its interesting that among francophones, the Liberals are actually in FOURTH place with only 16%, compared to the NDP at 17% and the Tories at 18%. I wonder whether the federal Liberals might be getting singed a bit by the EXTREME unpopularity of the provincial Liberals. Anyways, at this rate the happiest guy in town has to be Tom Mulcair!

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  161. 49


    I would just like to get in Shadow's line before he does.

    "Ipsos Reid doesn't poll the CPC higher that what they should reality does"


    Well that is certainly consistent with his previous unHoly bias !!

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  162. DL,

    That's an interesting Leger poll. The Liberals just can't seem to beat Martin/Dion territory. And fourth among francophones? Eugh. Not surprised, though.

    What I am surprised is the strength of the NDP. I know Leger has some leanings for the NDP, but tied with the Tories? That's just too much.

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  163. Peter,

    "Guergis dined with Financier at centre of Jaffer affair"

    The restauarant wasn't exactly one the "Tim Hortons crowd" would frequent.

    What a load of tosh that is coming out.

    Source: Globe and Mail

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  164. 49

    We will, I think, find out that she was heavily involved in some of he husbands "nefarious" activities !!

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  165. Volkov,

    This is not the first time that Leger or CROP has had the NDP in the high teens in Quebec. The fact that they are tied with the Tories also speaks to how the Tories have fallen in Quebec.

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