Wednesday, April 14, 2010

PQ Leads by Ten

Léger Marketing released a new provincial poll earlier this week, showing the Parti Québécois well ahead of the provincial Liberals.This poll was taken in the wake of a very unpopular budget and rumours of corruption in Jean Charest's Liberal government. With the recent allegations by Marc Bellemare about the PLQ's fundraising, there is no doubt that these bad Liberal numbers will tank even further. At this point, with 77% dissatisfied with this government, it is hard to believe the party isn't at rock bottom.

Compared to Léger's last poll in early March, the PQ has gained two points to reach 40%. The PLQ is down two points to 30%, while the Action Démocratique remains stable at 10%.

Québec Solidaire is down one to 9% and the Greens are up one to 8%.

The PQ's gains have come primarily from the Quebec City region, where they are up 11 points to 39%, and among non-francophones. They've jumped seven points to 14% among this demographic. The PQ leads among francophones with 46% (up one), and is tied with the PLQ in the Montreal region at 35% (down three). They lead outside of these two cities with 46% (up one).

The Liberals have lost a lot of ground in Quebec City and even among non-francophones. They are down 10 points to 25% in the capital, and down six points to 61% among non-francophones. They are down two points to 23% among francophones, steady in Montreal at 35%, and up one in the rest of Quebec with 26%.

The ADQ has dropped six points in the capital to 18%. This is their one fortress, so that is bad news for them.

The PVQ has gained four points among non-francophones and stands at 12%. This may be the result of Liberal supporters having nowhere else to go.

Pauline Marois of the PQ is the preferred person to be premier, with 27% (up three points). Charest follows with 17%, while Amir Khadir of QS is at 8% and Gérard Deltell of the ADQ is at 7%.

One remarkable fact about these leader numbers is that the number of people who have no opinion or respond "none of them" has risen greatly over the last few years. None of the party leaders seem to be exciting anyone at the moment.

I project the PQ would win 72 seats with this poll, while the PLQ would win 46. The ADQ would win 5 and QS would win 2.


  1. In the last BQ ahead in QC by 17% we ended off with the potential of a new federalist party in Quebec

    The article was after my posts yesterday asking why that hasn't happened.

    Eric ended up saying that the PQ would benefit.

    Talking for the RoC (a position well beyond what the RoC would say :) I think we have hit our defining moment in understanding Quebec.

    Like Afghanistan the RoC can not impose our Culture on Quebec. If Quebec wants to be a totally impoverished and totally socialist state it is up to the People of Quebec.

    For the next referendum... caused by the PQ looking good compared to the corrupt Liberals I think that you will find the RoC willing to support Quebec leaving the federation.

    The PQ being elected is not a bad thing for unity. The RoC has wasted far too many resources and made woefully unethical corrupt decisions to keep Quebec in the federation. It is incredibly to continue to prop up a corrupt local leader (Karzai/Charest) who you support even know that they can't be trusted.

    Having the PQ in power, representing the people of Quebec, is a much more clearly defined situation for the RoC. It is up to the people of Quebec to choose their future.

  2. One reason Charest is losing!

    If Quebec wants to secede it needs to get its spending and debt under control.

  3. PS. Sort of like having the Taliban in charge in Afganistan.

  4. I feel that these Bellemare accusations don't hold any real weight, especially the judiciary one. They'll be shot down and he'll shuffle back to whatever it is he did for a living before this.

    That being said, even accusations can harm the image of a government. However, I have a feeling that Charest will bounce back - he always seems to. It might not be enough to beat down Marois, though.

    As for a "new federalist party" - I seriously doubt anything will come up. I don't think anyone realizes it but this sort of situation and the speculation about it has happened several times in recent memory, in both Quebec and other parts of Canada. The Liberals get stained, simmer for awhile, then come roaring back with a vengence. It's a pretty repetitive process, to be honest.

  5. "The PVQ has gained four points among non-francophones and stands at 12%. "

    Who's the PVQ?

  6. Parti vert du Québec, or the Greens.

  7. There are basically are no Liberal Parties in Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Newfoundland.

    The BC Liberals are a combination of Social Credit, Liberals and Conservatives (a natural alliance) to fend off the socialist NDP. They are most closely tied in policies and thinking to the Klein Conservatives.

    So let's see Provincial Liberal parties exist in Quebec and Ontario and PEI, NS and NB. 5 out of 10 provinces , 6 if you count BC.

    NDP... well that would be 9 out of 10. No NDP in NFLD either.

    Do you see a trend?

  8. Does the Parti vert du Québec have any viable leaders/members?

    If I was living in Quebec and wanting to stay on the RoC gravy train to maintain my high standard of living I sure would be giving them a good look.

    Oops in my previous post NDP only in 8 out of 10 provinces. The two traditional have-not provinces Quebec and NL do not need the NDP :) Socialism and high unemployment is a given.

  9. --- Does the Parti vert du Québec have any viable leaders/members?

    No. One of the reasons they had about half as much support as polling showed during the last election was because they only had a half-slate of candidates. Their leader, Guy Rainville, is less well-known than their previous one, Scott McKay, who was poached by the PQ.

  10. A Correction to BC Voice of Reason,

    There are Liberal parties with seats, provincially in Manitoba and Alberta, all be it not many, but they do exist.

    In NL, the NDP is relatively strong, as Loraine Michaels has the Quidi-Vidi seat, and they typically pick up Labrador West. Jack Harris, the former provincial NDP leader, is now the NDP MP for St. John's East, and the federal NDP may pick up St. John's West next election. PEI and NB typically have the weakest provincial NDP parties that rarely get more than one seat, if at all.

  11. BC Voice of Reason,

    No, I do not see any trend. There is also no Conservative party in BC, none in Quebec, and barely one in PEI. There is also a pathetic whisp of one in Saskatchewan which goes under the name "Progressive Conservative," but I'll give you the Saskatchwan Party in its stead.

    All in all, there is no "trend." Provincial Liberals are all across this country. Provincial Conservatives are all across this country. Provincal Dippers are all across this country. All have varying views from their federal counterpart and all have their strengths and weaknesses. There is no trend. Period.

  12. Also, BC "Voice of Reason" (lol), the Liberals are in government in PEI. There is also a Liberal party in Saskatchewan, but it has no seats, which isn't news to anyone, because they've been weak ever since Ross Thatcher lost after taking the party farther right than Wall's government. And for giggles, there is a Liberal party in Yukon, which is the official opposition.

    Again - no trend, you're just off.

  13. Volkov,
    My reading is rather the opposite of yours. Bellemare has alleged that judges were appointed as kickbacks for illegal cash donations to the party in power, with the premier's blessing. That's as corrupt as you get in Canada. When a former minister admits to complicity in illegal acts, you have to take it seriously. If the inquiry produces anything, Charest is totally finished.

    It is entirely possible for Charest to survive this budget. People will not be as mad about the 1% PST hike in three years, and electricity and gas price increases are no surprise to anyone. Marois is concentrating almost exclusively on wedge issues which is popular now but will look out of touch in three years when the economy is back on track and no one will care if six women in Quebec wear a niqab or the minutae of which immigrants qualify for English schooling.

  14. Goaltender,

    I'm not sure if I would put any trust in what M. Bellemare says. The judiciary process has a lot of safeguards built in that, yes, can be worked around, but at a serious cost. I just don't see Charest sanctioning such a thing, not because he's an honest kind of guy, but just because there is no real net benefit out of it. So I take a skeptical eye to it. If Bellemare turns out to be right, well, suffice to say I wouldn't be surprised either.

    As for the budget, I agree. Charest can survive it if everything else calms down. But, that's hoping for an awful lot.

  15. Yeah... I don't see any trend in provincial governments either.

    I don't know too much about every province/territory but there are five Liberal governments in the country. Three of these are possibly likely to lose their next election. In Quebec and BC, Liberals are on the right and are likely to lose to their left wing opponents. In New Brunswick, the Liberals seem right wing, but I dont know about their PC opponents.

    While there are about as many PC parties as there are Liberal parties, only two are in government. The populists in Newfoundland and the guys possibly on their way out in Alberta.

    Saskatchewan is run by a right wing party, one more conservative than the Newfoundland PCs. They belong together in a group together less than Campbell and McGuinty do if we want to count that way.

    The NDP can be found in just about every province and run only two at the moment.

    All this taken together... I see no pattern at all. It's a little strange that the three biggest provinces are run by Liberals, but that's probably just coincidence. Much like the parties themselves the provinces are all moving to the drumbeat of turning out the rascals more than any ideological changes.

  16. Earl said:

    "If Quebec wants to secede it needs to get its spending and debt under control."

    Quebec will be receiving $8.55 billion in equalization payments from the rest of Canada this year.

    Imagine how that would hurt Quebec's financial bottom line each year with that amount taken away.

    Throw in Quebec's portion of Canada's debt and the additional burden of annual debt-servicing costs.

    Then throw in the fact that Quebec is also likely the highest taxed jurisdiction in Canada right now anyway.

    Add that all up and Quebec would probably be a financial basket case if it ever seceded. Unfortunately.

    I guess the question, one day, will be whether Quebecois vote with their hearts or with their wallets.

    BTW, Gilles Duceppe is making his rounds and will be out here in Vancouver on Friday pitching his secession message to the local media.

  17. Thanks for the polite replies and informative feedback.

    I should have stuck to my one main point.

    It is possible for a provincial Liberal party to disappear or become irrelevant. This happened in Manitoba, Sask, Alberta, NL and all but in name in BC.

    The provincial Conservative parties disappeared in Quebec, Saskatchewan and BC.

    There is no one on the right at all in Quebec. The choice is between the socialist/separtist PQ and the socialist/corrupt Liberals. Both are dependent on the RoC for funding their socialist agenda. Bouchard is the only Quebec politician that represents the Right of the political spectrum and no one pays any attention to him.

  18. Why doesn't the ADQ get a new leader ?

    It just seems bizzare that a party that once had so many seats and candidates could just dissapear.

    There is all this talk about new right wing third parties, why re-invent the wheel ?

  19. The ADQ has had three leaders since 2008, so I don't think they need a fourth.

  20. Eric sticking with a poor leader simply on the basis of not wanting to have had too many leaders in too short a time period seems silly.

    Looking at the polling ADQ has gotten lately, following that horrendous string of defections and the internal strife its clear the party either needs a new high profile leader or Mario Dumont needs to issue a statement effectively killing the ADQ in favour of a new right wing vehicle.

    Are there per vote subsidies in Quebec ?

    Creating an incentive for useless old parties to continue to exist and a disadvantage to new parties is one of many, many flaws in the deeply flawed system of per vote subsidization.

  21. BC "Voice of Reason",

    One, you can't really call the PQ or PLQ "socialist" in any regard, unless you have no idea what that word means, which I'm not above calling you out on.

    Two, the NL Liberals are existent, just as the PEI Conservatives are. However, in the face of overwhelming odds, namely popular Premiers, they become temporarily comatose until said Premier screws up or leaves. Then they become major forces again.

    Three, Bouchard isn't too far right - he's Mulroney right, which is sort of centre, to be honest. Also, the ADQ, who are Harper right, which is truly right, are representative of the right in Quebec, except they are, for lack of a better word, useless.

  22. Volkov I don't find the use of the term "socialist" to be particularily out of place in our political discourse.

    Its on par with nationalist, as opposed to extremes like communist or fascist.

    I mean you can dress up the term if nessecary and say a party is a European style social democratic party, the "socialism" being tucked away into the word social.

    I know Jack Layton openly describes the NDP as a social democratic party, which frankly is just word play.

    These are socialist parties. And there's nothing wrong with that either.

    Heck even Obama has taken over 51% of the private US economy. How much higher do you have to go before you hit socialist territory ?

  23. OT, but I expect we will at the polls before Poland will be.


  24. Eric:

    Ekos out now and has Libs-Tories essentially tied !!

    Somewhat different from the I-R version !

  25. Shadow: Volkov I don't find the use of the term "socialist" to be particularily out of place in our political discourse.

    The term "socialist" carries a lot of baggage with the right, but it's hard to understand why. The Socialist International must be filled with...well...socialists, right? With member parties like the NDP (no surprise to Shadow, I'm sure) and other fringe extremists like--oh yeah, the UK Labour Party, formerly led by Dubya's staunch ally Tony Blair, and seemingly filling the same ecological niche in Britain that the Grits usually fill here.

    There's no reason for anybody to be defensive about the word, nor is it a pejorative. A country devoid of absolutely every aspect of socialism would be a dog-eat-dog nightmare. After that, it's just a discussion about the right mix.

  26. "There is also a Liberal party in Saskatchewan, but it has no seats, which isn't news to anyone, because they've been weak ever since Ross Thatcher lost after taking the party farther right than Wall's government."
    Shows what little you know about Saskatchewan politics. The Saskatchewan Liberal Party was strong when it was a right-wing party, and weakened after it was moved to the left.


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