Thursday, April 15, 2010

New Ekos Poll: 2.4-pt Conservative Lead

EKOS's weekly poll shows a drop for the Conservatives in the wake of the Guergis affair, which seems to be becoming stranger by the day.Compared to last week's polling, the Conservatives have dropped 2.2 points to 31.4%. The Liberals took advantage, gaining 1.7 points. They now stand at 29.0%. The New Democrats also gained, 0.5 points to 16.4%. The Bloc Québécois is down 0.8 points nationally while the Greens are down 0.6 points to 11.1%. "Other" gained by 1.5 points to 3.3%.

In EKOS's analysis, they say that polling closed to a tie between the Liberals and Conservatives over the last few days. The scandal might be having an effect, and it will be interesting to see what the results will be next week. Of course, whether it will have any long-term effect is another question entirely. My gut says it won't, but also that it just makes it all the harder for the Tories to gain the votes they need to surpass their 2008 electoral result.

In Ontario, the Liberals have gained give points and stand at 36.6%, followed by the Conservatives at a very low 31.1% (down nine points). The NDP is up one point to 16.5%. The Liberals lead in Toronto with 38.7%, followed by the Conservatives at 29.9% (down eight points). In Ottawa, the Conservatives have dropped 11 points to 41.0% but still lead. The NDP is up 15 points to 21.1%.

In Quebec, the Bloc drops four points but is still in front with 34.7%. The Liberals are steady with 24.1%, while the Conservatives are down one to 16.0%. The NDP gains two to 12.3%. In Montreal, the Bloc leads with 36.3%.

In British Columbia, the Tories have gained three points and re-gained the lead with 32.5%. The Liberals are up six to 25.7% and the NDP is down six to 24.3%. The Greens have dropped five to 12.9%. In Vancouver, the Conservatives lead a three-way race with 30.5%.

In the other regions, the Conservatives narrowly lead in Atlantic Canada with 37.2% and in Alberta with 59.5% (not so narrow there). A lot of movement in the Prairies, likely due to the sample size. The Conservatives are up nine to 41.6%, the Liberals are down 11 to 24.1%, and the NDP is up five to 23.8%.

The Conservatives would win 67 seats in the West with this poll. They'd also win 32 in Ontario, 7 in Quebec, and 11 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 117.

The Liberals would win 18 seats in the West, 57 in Ontario, 16 in Quebec, and 19 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 110.

The Bloc, though down in support but facing weaker opposition, wins 50 seats.

The NDP win 10 seats in the West, 17 in Ontario, 2 in Quebec, and 2 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 31.

Could the Conservatives form a government with only 117 MPs? Unlikely. Rather, we'd probably be looking at an NDP-backed Ignatieff government with these sorts of numbers. And while the Liberals stand to pick up a lot of seats with a poll like this, they still can't be happy with 29% support.