Thursday, April 1, 2010

Ekos Poll: 5.2-pt Conservative Lead

EKOS has its weekly poll out, as usual. And, as usual, it has the two major parties at very weak levels.The Conservatives have dropped 1.1 points to 32.2%, while the Liberals are down 0.7 points to 27%. While that is a bad number for the Tories (and a big drop), that is an even worse number for the Liberals. "Dion territory", as they say now.

The New Democrats are up 0.1 points to 16.0%, and the Greens are up 1.7 points to 12.7%. The Bloc Québécois is down 0.8 points nationally to 9.0%, while "Other" is up 0.3 points to 3.1%.

In Ontario, all of the three big parties dropped about two points. The Conservatives lead with 35.3%, the Liberals follow with 32.8%, and the NDP is at 15.4%. All bad numbers. The numbers aren't bad for the Tories in Toronto, however, where they are close behind the Liberals with 35.1%. The Liberals are at 37.2%. In Ottawa, the Liberals (42.3%) have gained six points at the expense of the NDP, and are tied with the Tories who have 42.5%.

In Quebec, the Bloc is down about three points to 35.9%, while the Liberals and Conservatives gained each about a point, and stand at 21.8% and 17.3%, respectively. However, these are well below where they need to be. The Bloc leads in Montreal with 35.8%, followed by the Liberals at 28.9%.

In British Columbia, the Liberals have gained about five points and lead with 29.6%. Yes, lead. The Conservatives dropped four points to 29.4%, while the NDP dropped one point to 25.0%. The Tories lead in Vancouver, however, with 34.8%, followed by the NDP at 28.8% (up eight points).

The Liberals lead, barely, in Atlantic Canada with 32.7%, down six points. In Alberta, the Tories have 52.8%, but the Liberals have dropped five points to 14.6%, pushing them out of contention for a seat. In the Prairies, the Conservatives lead with 48.9%, while the Liberals have dropped six to 21.4% and the NDP is down nine to 14.2%.

The Conservatives would win 66 seats in the West, 50 in Ontario, 8 in Quebec, and 8 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 132.

The Liberals would win 18 in the West, 42 in Ontario, 15 in Quebec, and 18 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 93.

The Bloc would win 50 seats in Quebec.

The NDP would win 11 seats in the West, 14 in Ontario, 2 in Quebec, and 6 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 33.

Since Secretary of State Hillary Clinton brought it up, Angus-Reid has a timely poll on how Canadians feel about extending the mission in Afghanistan into 2011.

If an extension took the form of a combat role, only 16% of Canadians would support it, and 79% would oppose it. That is pretty unanimous, and a good indication of why the Conservative government stuck to its (lack of) guns. Support was highest in the Prairies (23%), while opposition was highest in Quebec (85%).

If an extension took the form of training the Afghan Army, 54% would support it and 39% would oppose it. Support was highest in Atlantic Canada (66%), while opposition was highest in Quebec (47%). It is interesting that Atlantic Canadians would support a training mission in such high numbers, as their opposition to a combat role was second only to Quebec.

The events of the last few weeks have seemed to hurt everyone. The Liberals didn't make any headway with their Canada 150 conference (but really, who thought they would?) and the Conservatives haven't made any ground with the abortion and Afghanistan issues still being talked about. What is surprising is that no one is taking advantage of the weakness of the other parties. The NDP and Bloc have managed to keep themselves out of the fray and stable, which relative to the Liberals and Conservatives is a good thing, but the Greens and Others are making gains, likely indicative of a disaffection voters could be feeling towards the traditional parties. Whether those gains would translate into actual voting support, however, is another question entirely.


  1. I suspect the Green vote will evaporate easily, because I can't see this as "true support" for the Greens, especially since they've done nothing in the past while worth gaining this sort of support. It's probably more of a protest vote.

    Chop off half of that 12%, and watch everyone's numbers go up.

    And in all honesty, I'm surprised about the Conservative drop. What the heck is that? The Liberals dropping? Sure. Can150 wasn't meant to boost poll fortunes, and the abortion debacle should have knocked them down. But the Conservatives? Really?

    My guess is that even though the Liberals screwed it up, Canadians are a) didn't care or notice, or b) still directed more anger to the Conservatives over the issue despite.

    It has to be that, because what have the Conservatives done to incur the wrath of Canadians lately?

  2. I am hoping someone can clearify something for me, which is how Ekos comes up with their percentages. (sounds confusing on my part)

    Heres my example in BC Ekos sampled 125 females and 126 males, 24.4 females said they would vote Conservative while 30.9 of males said they would vote for the Conservatives. I would think you would add these numbers together then divide them by 2 you would get 27.65 yet the Cons got 29.4%.

    I have noticed this same thing in other provinces before but I have also noticed when the number is pretty much in the middle exactly am I just missing something?

  3. I addressed this question before - it has to do with how they round things. The breakdowns we see are raw numbers, the totals they spit out are played with a lot to get the correct weight.

    For example, let's say they surveyed too many females of a certain age. They would have to lower their weight in the final numbers. Or if they surveyed not enough men of a certain income, then they have to inflate those numbers and deflate others.

    So, it's really in how they work with the numbers to get the correct weight for each demographic (and subset of demographics).

  4. Well I don't feel as stupid now seeing that is pretty complex.

  5. Yeah, it is. We're lucky, though, as EKOS is one of the few that gives such a detailed breakdown.

  6. Volkov strange as it may seem it looks like marginal CPC supports are parking their votes with the Green party at least in my opinion. That explains the drop CPC support again in my opinion. There is probably some of the same thing going on with LPC.

  7. The LPC ahead in BC and the Tories just behind in TO? I gotta say I just don't trust these regional breakdowns.

    Perhaps the Tories dropped because of the cabinet members getting in trouble. It's the most recent thing I can think of that isn't after this poll.

  8. Abortion question asked along with this poll could have skewed the results in a weird way !

    Look at the breakdown British Columbia has the highest levels of pro-choicers.

    Also where this poll shows a weird Liberal lead.

  9. --- Abortion question asked along with this poll could have skewed the results in a weird way !

    Unlikely, as EKOS is probably smart enough to ask that sort of question AFTER voting intentions, not before.

    Good to see those pro-choice numbers, though.

  10. --- Also where this poll shows a weird Liberal lead.

    It isn't weird in the context of recent polls and the MOE.

  11. Eric you could always e-mail and ask which question they asked first.

    Otherwise your guess is as good as mine.

    I'd assume they'd ask it first to get the hang ups out of the way, which is what a lot of people would do when asked such a question.

  12. Volkov,

    stopping picking on the Green surge, Hulk get mad!

    The 12.7 and 3.1 (other) is easily explained.


  13. VOLKOV.

    Thank God someone took the Manning Centre to task over their ridiculous abortion numbers. The general 'shift to the right' narrative is a fiction. Conservatives are in power for several reasons, some dubious, but not because they represent the majority of Canadian values (they don't).

    As for 'incurring the wrath of Canadians lately,' I think it's the most recent wave of a general sense that this government, after over four years in power, remains a group of amateurs:

    1.Their performance on every file is lacking to say the least, whether each member actually gets to 'perform' or is muzzled (decisions are all coming from PMO anyway).

    2.They're engaged in a massive human rights abuse cover-up.

    3.They're obsessed--and I don't use the word lightly--with smearing the Liberals as if they were still in power and the Conservatives are still in opposition. Talk about insecure. Well, with any luck, it won't be long, etc... That is all to say, when every little thing is a partisan calculation, there is little time to learn how to govern, not to mention listen to Canadians.

  14. No constitutional showdown for awhile guys !

    Derek Lee is going to respond first day back from the break.

    So monday the 12th. And then Speaker might take an additional week to make a ruling.

  15. DAVOR nobody took anybody to task.

    2 data points conflict. Its impossible to render any informed judgement, as you just did, that one is correct.

    I get that your intuition, prejudice, wishful thinking, etc WANTS the EKOS numbers to be true.

    But until a third pollster weighs the 2 results are a stalemate.

  16. People are calling this "Dion territory", but they forget that Ignatieff already spent three months with support levels right around here prior to the most recent proroguation.

    This isn't new for Ignatieff. He's always been capable of these levels of (non)support.

  17. The question the Manning centre asked was something like "Do you think abortion is morally wrong?"

    If you ask people "Do you think abortions should be illegal?", you will get a different answer.

    Stable numbers, on this type of question, at 2-1 for a decade is significant.

    Nice of you to point this out Shadow, I'll be quite interested to see their final compilation on social values.

    I think you know which way I feel the trend is going.

    Mr. Harper should take note that even among the CPC the divide is 45%-37% for self-described pro-choicers, over pro-lifers.

  18. From the Green perspective there are obviously no complaints with this poll, but the increase probably has a lot to do with statistical variance. The Green share of the decided vote clearly now has a floor comfortably above 10%, but it's a bit early to be over 12% across the country.

    So relax, Grits, Tories and Bloquistes: there's no need to explain why the votes you own by right are being parked in the Green slot. It's called chance. You can start to worry if you're still seeing these numbers in three or four weeks, but you won't. On the other hand, that 10% base is solid. Don't expect to chew into it in the next election.

    It's unusual to see the Ontario Green vote (13.8%) higher than the BC share (13%). Again, that's almost certainly the roll of the dice. What is clear is that Green support is higher outside of the large urban centres. The reasons for this might be a topic for another comment.

  19. We've now had a dozen EKOS polls including "Other" as an option. Was some of the Green support before that time just code for "None of the Above"? Probably not. The Green numbers don't show any discontinuity before and after the change; the 2009-12-17 Green support was clearly an outlier, but the longer trends on either side don't show a step function at the change. Nor, interestingly, did the number of Undecided/Ineligible voters alter significantly from a rough eyeball. They've been averaging slightly over 14% all along. In fact, the steadiness of the Undecided vote is somewhat surprising.

    So if "Other" didn't come from Undecided or (primarily) Green, where did it come from? Everywhere and nowhere, it appears; no party took a clearly identifiable hit, so the support seems to have come from across the spectrum.

    The Liberals may actually have gained relative to the other major parties, but perhaps that's understandable. Tory supporters can turn out to be Christian Heritage Party members or several other right-wing edge cases. Extreme Dippers may leak to the original CPC (the Communist Party of Canada) or its bitter rival the Communist Party of Canada (Marxist-Leninist). Greens may be unmasked as Animal Alliance Environment voters. But what's left for an ultra-centrist Grit--Neorhino?

  20. John,

    As much as I think Hulk smask is cute reality should not ignored.

    Ekos 2008 -3 CPC, LIB 0, NDP +1, Bloc 0, Grn +3

    A series of Polls mean little to non political, news junkies and pundits.

    1) Campaigns matter.
    2) Ballots cast count.

    Verifiable results matter. At the moment the Green 10% is like WMD's.

    A cute story but no facts behind it.

  21. Eric: indeed great to see those pro-choice numbers, yet really not a surprise. I mean this isn't the 1950s (or 60s-80s), though I know some would prefer to roll it all back.

    For those who want to read Graves' piece at EKOS:

    The Manning Centre poll was an extreme outlier, if we are to compare it to abortion rights polling in Canada over the past many years. To suggest there's some kind of stalemate, or that there is an actual competitive debate to 'not be reopened', is a Reform party wet dream.

    Anecdote in the spirit of Easter!: I once drove through Vegreville, Alberta and marvelled at the giant Pysanka and then saw a giant pro-life billboard on the way
    out of town, and then a little homemade sign tacked to the pole at the bottom that said:
    'Abort the Egg.'


    A great long weekend to all!

  22. I never trust the Manning Center's polls just our of principle. I like some of the work they do, but it's pretty obvious the results are more than a little off. Never trust the numbers from a think tank with an implicit bias.

  23. For those curious to see the Manning Centre numbers.

    I don't think it's so much and outlier, as it is framing the questions to get the answer you want.

    Some of the wonkier numbers could be chalked up to sample size.

    Important to note, is that 65% of those polled considered themselves "centrist", and the most relevant finding is this...

    "For instance, the poll says 75 per cent of respondents feel abortion is “morally wrong” and 80 per cent support the traditional definition of marriage.

    But it also found only 21 per cent of self-identified political centrists wanted to see government play a “major role” regulating individual behaviour and morality, suggesting Canadians have a strong libertarian streak on social issues."

  24. Shadow,

    Remember Shelly Glover? How I said I respected her and thought that she would make a good cabinet minister one day, or even leader of the Conservatives?

    I take it all back.

  25. Shelly Glover, should not be in cabinet.

    Her judgement is questionable.

    She ran afoul, of the Louis Riel school division in Winnipeg for wanting to hand out water bottles to children, with the CPC logo, on them as well as her name.

    She could not understand all the fuss being made about it.

    She threw a fit, and made the front page of the Winnipeg Free Press.

    She then blamed former Liberal MP Raymond Simard, for the controversy.

    She is a GOOF

  26. AJR79 the american experience, where they do a lot more of this type of polling is that amongst younger people abortion is becoming less popular and gay marriage more popular.

    The classic anti-abortion/anti-gay marriage OR pro-abortion/pro-gay marriage groupings are splitting apart at the seams.

    If they ever existed at all. Its not uncommon to hear older people, especially Catholics or women, who are pro-abortion and anti-gay marriage.

  27. Volkov thanks for the link!

    Shelly Glover is pretty amazing. The "gotcha" 49 steps is desperately trying to trot out only adds to my admiration of her.

    Clearly she knows the system. This insight seems especially true given the rise of gang activity and the arrival of new Canadians (some legal, some not) in big cities across the country:

    "They do not count unreported crimes. And as a police officer, I’ll tell you, I worked sex crimes for four and a half years, 92% of sex crime victims do not report their crime. Because they don’t have faith in the justice system, they’re fearing retribution, they really do have a number of reasons for not reporting."

  28. Shadow,

    I'm more then 92% sure, that she can't back that statistic up.

    I shudder to think, of a minister of justice with this kind of mindset.

    As far as those EKOS abortion numbers. Do you trust them?

    I don't see any reason why you wouldn't. That strong "social libertarian" streak among centrists, also found in the Manning numbers, shows the same thing as the EKOS numbers.

    There are no votes to be had, in pandering on so-con issues. Harper has to plan his moves better, and not leave his flanks open here.

  29. AJR79 that number on sex crimes victims sounds plausible.

    Prostitutes almost never report beatings or rapes because of their line of work. Media exposes have shown horrendous things happening in old age homes that go unreported. And advocates have always said that there are far more children who have been victimized by family/close friends then we know about. Or priests for that matter.

    Those are annecdotes not statistics so the 92% figure is probably more like a rough estimate she saw somewhere.

    Anyways, I was thinking minister of public safety actually, after a short stint in status of women.

    (At this point Geurgis is in danger of losing her riding next election if she doesn't quit cabinet and spend more time tending to it.)

    Do I trust EKOS numbers ?

    I honestly don't trust anything Frank Graves puts out at this point.

    As I said, a third data point is needed.

  30. Someone should ask high ranking Mensa member Shelly Glover one question:

    How does she know how prisoners vote?

    Their ballots, under special voting rules, are lumped in and counted with Canadian Armed forces electors.

    Maybe she should provide some evidence for her usual bullshit, before she comes off with blanket statements like that.

    Being a police officer, you would think she would understand the importance of evidence.

  31. 49 steps maybe someone has done a poll ?

    Or you know its just bloody obvious that tough on crime parties don't get support from criminals ?

    Especially a party wanting to put in mandatory minimums for virtually everything and took away 2 for 1 time served credits ?

    Commonsense alone is enough to support her conclusion without futher evidence.

  32. Shadow,

    We agree Guergis could be in trouble next election, and should resign. I don't think she will thou.

    That statement is fairly devastating to Glover IMO.

    If I were giving lessons on how to destroy my credibility, I would dismiss StatsCan numbers, and then pull a completely made up 92% number out of thin air.

    She better have some basis for that number (which I highly doubt).

    Not ready for primetime yet.

    Hopefully she learns a good lesson out of this. These types of things don't need a repeat performance.

  33. I can see why the CBC pulled away.

    She is qualified and has experience on the front lines. The other panelists can't refute her points without looking silly.

    If you want to watch a funny moment on CBC with Iggy.

  34. Isn't framing the question to get the answer you want the whole point of the Manning Centre? It was started as a means to teach conservatives to be better and more effective politicans. The central goal of the Manning Centre is to produce a political result.

    I'd be more likely to trust a poll released by the Fraser Institute.

  35. Under Mr. Shadow's new rules, you are allowed to make a blanket statement with no evidence.


    All fundamentalist crackpots vote CPC.

    All anti abortion wing nuts vote CPC.

    All gun loving enthusiasts vote CPC.

    All death penalty advocates vote CPC.

    All war mongers vote CPC.

    All anti bilingualism french haters, and Quebec bashers vote CPC.

    Of course I have no evidence for any of this, it is just based on my own opinion.

  36. 49 steps based on your own opinions and a complete lack of commonsense indeed.

    I see no support for those statements.

    Abortion, for instance, we know there are pro-life Liberal MPs.

  37. AJR79 are you saying you disagree with the point that StatsCan numbers don't include crimes that aren't reported?

    Its hard to disagree with a factual statement.

    And your conlusion that Glover can't back up her numbers is based on what ?

    Intuition ?

    Yet you've judged this appearance as damaging and her not ready for prime time.

    Shouldn't you wait and see if anything she says can be backed up or not ?

    Seems to me like she makes very good points that are worth exploring instead of being dismissed off hand.

    I'm dissapointed in your reflexive rush to judgement.

  38. This statement is the problem with Glover, not the other stuff:

    And the other thing is, let’s not forget, the Liberals have an interest here because, predominantly, prison inmates vote Liberal during elections. Cops vote Conservative. There is a clear interest for the prisoners to be voting for soft on crime legislation that the Liberals put forward.

    She's saying the Liberals have an interest in "soft-and-crime" legislation in order to get the votes of criminals.

    That is just stupid.

    Where is Justin Trudeau when you need him?

    Anyway, people who study these things know that being "tough on crime" is usually counter-productive. As the saying goes, it is better to be "smart on crime".

  39. CS

    Just so you know,

    CBC did not pull away, because Glover was putting on such a dazzling display of intelligentsia.

    They pulled away to cover a UN press conference.

    Damn lucky thing for her, she was really looking like a knob.

  40. Liberals should not draw any comparison to knobs.

    Thanks, Wayne Easter!

  41. Eric its almost universally believed that Justin Trudeau made an ass out of himself on national television.

    He himself later agreed, apologized for interupting, and said he's still learning.

    Glover came out ahead on that one.

    She's probably trying to do the same thing here with that line about prisoners voting Liberal, cops voting Conservative.

    Get her male counterparts so angry that they start shouting at her and frothing at the mouth.

    Demagoguery to be sure but effective politics.

    (These are politicians after all).

  42. I am enjoying the Liberals using QP to attack this female MP.

    First six questions Bob, Wayne
    Dear Prime Minister, Helena must go!

    Canada 150 follow up, those Big ideas?

  43. CS, Thanks

    Wayne Easter was holding up a door knob, at the National Press Theatre, in Ottawa, Monday October 19, 2009, to discuss the CPC cheque scandal.

    Easter then pointed out that the CPC, are placing EAP signs in front of Government buildings that have had only routine upgrades, such as a door knob replacement.

    What a silly boy you are.

  44. Shadow,

    She failed then, because she herself ends up looking like an absolute idiot. Not only that, but she has shamed her own former profession by lumping them together and saying all cops are Conservative, as if a cop that isn't Conservative isn't a cop.

    She should be reprimanded by Harper, her colleagues, and anyone else with an axe they need to grind. Justin Trudeau might have been an ass, but he only made himself look like an ass - Shelly Glover just offended millions of Canadians, and spit on police officers across the country who disagree with her.

    For shame, for shame.

  45. CS on powerplay Brad Lavigne for the NDP said it was bad politics for Ignatieff to go on tv and attack Geurgis.

    He looked pretty silly waiving his arms around and using a mocking voice calling her a liar over and over again. Definetly beneath him.

    Bad optics for men to attack women in politcs, can create a backlash and sympathy.

    Would be better to get an attack dog like Marlene Jennings to do this sort of thing.

  46. Volkov she's certainly a lighting rod isn't she ?

    Reaction to her words help to sort out the lefties from the righties pretty darn quick.

    People like her are very effective politicians.

    They keep the base riled up and polarize the electorate, which can divide the Liberals if the NDP is seen as the best left option.

  47. Shadow,

    Sure, that I won't disagree with. She's a Sarah Palin of Canadian politics, more or less.

    Doesn't make her words any less shameful or abhorrent, just like some of the vile that spews out of Palin's mouth. The main difference between Glover and Palin, though, is that Glover is subordinate to Harper and his PMO, and if I were Harper, I'd shut her up pretty damn quick. She can be effective, but she's also a liability, and one thing Harper doesn't need is more liabilities (Bernier, Jaffer, Guergis, Anders, Vellacott, Mackay).

    But regardless, I have no respect for the woman now. If she ever came near to the Conservative leadership, I'd switch parties and start organizing to stop her from within.

  48. Oh also Volkov you can't say Glover failed.

    What's her motivation ?

    To get into cabinet. By that measure she has definetly helped herself lately.

    Becoming a conservative hero with grassroots support makes her just as likely as Bernier to get in at this point.

  49. Shadow,

    I disagree. It's this sort of thing that should keep her from cabinet. Harper isn't stupid - he knows putting in someone with views and an outspoken tendency like Sarah Palin is only going to hurt him. He built his Conservative regime based on the ability to hold the center - he won't be able to do that with Glover in cabinet.

    But, hey, from a Liberal POV, put her in cabinet, please!

  50. Candice Hoeppner is another rookie MP to watch.

    Its her bill to kill the gun registry that is working its way through parliament.

    Lots of Canadian Sarah Palins who will play a huge role in the future of the CPC.

  51. Shadow,

    Please don't tell me you want Sarah Palins in the CPC. They're bad, mkay?

    Well, not Hoeppner. She's not too bad. But Glover, Yelich, Block... eugh. Need more Albonczys, Verners and Davidsons.

  52. The left have a pattern of attacking all conservative women and labelling them as stupid.

    The attacks include is their opinions are based on "facts" and science in contrast to their opponents are backward religious fanatics.

    It is interesting how the environmentalists label those skeptics as deniers.

    The use of language and labels is deliberate.

  53. Volkov we've already seen Harper is nervous about his right base losing intensity.

    Day to treasury was red meat, meant to signal a crackdown on the public service which the CPC grassroots LOVES.

    Anyways words alone won't stop anyone from joining cabinet if highly embarrassing incidents don't.

    People like Bernier, Raitt, Geurgis are ACTUAL loose cannons.

    That's completely different then being a firebreathing bomb thrower. Plenty of those are kept around even in cabinet. Ex. Peter Van Loan.

    Plus achieving gender parity in cabinet would be good politics.

  54. CS,

    So, you're saying you don't support actual facts being used to demonstrate ideas and points? Lol, couldn't expect anything less, I suppose.

    And to point out, I have tonnes of respect for "Conservative women" - especially the ones who are sensible. Glover doesn't appear to be one of them. Never called her stupid, though, so please, stop making up words, mkay?

  55. Shadow,

    Fair points, though I don't know how far Harper will go to shore up his base.

    And can they achieve gender parity in cabinet? That's a great but lofty goal, even for the Liberals, or for any government to be honest. Women are hard to come by in politics, qualified women even more so. It's a shame too - they simply aren't engaged enough.

  56. CS you bring up a good point.

    Liberals are uncomfortable with women like Glover and Palin because they break traditional feminist stereotypes.

    Same with black or hispanic Republicans in the United States, they get attacked with all sorts of racism and hate but its seen as OK because they're on the right.

    Academic lefties see the world as old white men vs everyone else. Powerful vs the weak, marxism/revolution and all that.

    When a women or minority strays into the old white men camp they go ballistic because it threatens their world view and power base.

  57. Shadow,

    That's a load of crap, no offense. I expect it from CS, but not from you.

    The fact is that women like Sarah Palin are tremendously respected for their ability to survive in the political world - but I blame no one for not respecting the person who makes up "death panels" to scare people away from a health care proposal that comes nowhere near close to "socialism."

    I find it rarely about the gender among anyone, whether left wing or right wing or whatever - its about the person. And in all honesty, Sarah Palin is a crappy person.

  58. Wayne Easter can be a complete A$$ in parliament as he only needs 8,000 votes in his riding to get elected.

    This would put in 3rd place in most Ontario, BC or Alberta ridings.

    Guergis, for all her mistakes, had over 30,000 people vote for her. She could have won all 4 seats in PEI with that vote total.

    Easter won by 1000 last time and 2000 in 2006. I really hope the CPC can get someone with more friends and relatives to run against him.

  59. If there were more people in Easter's riding, he'd probably get more votes.

  60. Volkov,

    thank you for confirming the bias.

    I said the left suggest they use facts and science.

    Clearly Phil Jones my dog ate my notes demostrates otherwise.

    Your intolerance and labeling of conservative women is factual.

    I am not an American and don't care if you feel qualified in mocking conservative womens intelligence.

    American entertainer Ann Coulter is another example of the left intolerance.

    Denigrate, call stupid, cite dangerous.

    The University of Ottawa students, and VP were attacked by many for preventing free speech including University of Toronto Academics.

  61. Volkov I think Harper does what every leader does, which is to appoint people he is comfortable with on a personal level while also balancing the regions and the PC/Alliance wings.

    So its very hard to break into cabinet or get kicked out.

    Too bad because there's lot of exciting people. As for gender parity maybe after the next election it would be possible. There are 37 ministers at the moment.

    11 of them are women. So 7-8 more women eh ?

    I can only find 6 who might be future cabinet material: Glover, Hoepner, Boucher, Lois Brown, Cathy McLeod, Joy Smith.

    So yeah more women need to be elected.

  62. Some of us can be critical of a statement by anyone regardless of gender.

    An example of Hedy Fry, Olympic logo conspiracy in QP.

    Dr. C. Bennet on fearmongering H1N1 and decision to send a 10% to aboriginal reserves.

    An example of being critical of specific actions with denigrating them.

    Your standards in civility are lower.

  63. Hey, anybody want to join the "Other" Party? Its election slogan could be "None of the Above" and all of its policies could be "Don't know/Undecided."
    According to EKOS, at least 3% of Canadians in every province are desparate to have this imaginary party as their next government.

  64. CS,

    Again, I expect no lower standards of partisanship than you. You don't even read what I say. Is this how you argue? Be so incomprehensible that people just give up trying to get anything intellectually honest from you?


    That's a good point. His close associates would probably get the top jobs, even if they to tend to be incompetent...

    And do you think Sylvie Boucher is really cabinet material? She's the only name there that raised a flag with me (other than Glover, lol) - why not Pat Davidson? She's been around for awhile and is qualified, yet she keeps getting passed over.

  65. Goaltender,

    If you're feeling empowered, and are still free!

  66. Sorry, I wasn't satisfied with the level of sarcasm in my last post ridiculing EKOS for prompting for "other". Let me try again:

    "OTTAWA [CP]: The Christian Heritage Party, Marxist-Leninist Party and Natural Law Party have announced their immediate merger, following an EKOS poll suggesting that their united "Other" Party would win almost 5% of the vote if an election were held tomorrow.

    "Clearly, Canadians are tired of the big five parties and are looking for some vague, non-existent alternative," said a spokesman for the new party, which will have the official name of the Canadian Christian Marxist Other Alliance. "The EKOS poll has a margin of error of 3% , and we are getting more than that in their polls, so either EKOS is doing something seriously wrong in their methodology, or there's some real support out there for us."

  67. Goaltender, I think the Natural Law Party was deregistered back in the early 2000's! xD Otherwise, ace!

  68. Not bad, not bad. But they aren't at 5% yet, this poll had the nebulous other party at 3.1%.

    Reminds me of the Rick Mercer fake Communist Party political ad attacking the Marxist-Leninists.

  69. Volkov what does Patricia Davidson offer in terms of a skill set though ?

    She seems to have served in various political capacities her whole life.

    And her assignment is:

    Standing Committee on Access to Information, Privacy and Ethics

    I just don't know if she has the background for anything. Maybe minister for a regional development or status of women or another junk jr cabinet portfolio.

    Other people who may be qualified I left out because of association with past scandals - Nina Grewal, Dona Cadman, Cheryll Gallant (anti-abortion crusader!)

    Alice Wong got left out for having poor english.

    I looked at previous occupations and committee assignments to see if anyone had a skill set that fit into cabinet.

    Cathy McLeod was a small town mayor and fmr nurse who could one day be Minister of Health. But that would bump Aglukkaq and I don't know what other ministry she'd be good at (maybe indian and northern affairs ?)

    I guess achieving gender parity really is a huge, nearly impossible challenge.

  70. Shadow,

    It's a huge issue to tackle, to be sure. Not enough qualified people to go around.

    As for MacLeod, just because she was a nurse doesn't mean she's suited to be Minister of Health. A lot more is required than just medical experience. Ujjal Dosanjh never had any medical experience, and he was a fairly good Minister of Health for the time he was there. Similarly, Aglukkaq has zero experience in the medical profession, as far as I know. And she's a *competent* Minister of Health.

    As for Pat Davidson, she was a small town mayor like MacLeod, and she also was the warden of Lambton County, is involved in the Health and Energy Committees, Status of Women, and etc. She's qualified for something.

  71. An alternative approach to the next federal election.

  72. This strikes me as odd.

    Yvon Godin's Bill C-32, now heads to the senate.

    The bill requires that all future Supreme Court Judges, be bilingual.

    All the conservatives voted against the bill.

    Even the conservative MP's from Quebec, and New Brunswick.

    What is truly priceless is how Laurie Hawn frames it.

    He tweeted "Opposition coalition passes bill that limits Supreme Court candidates from West to almost nil, due to level of bilingualism.

    Does he think people in the West are too stupid to learn French?

    Why on earth would the conservatives vote against this?

    (Shadow I already know about the guarantee of Judges from Quebec on the bench)

    It just seems common sense legislation to me.

  73. I have to disagree about what is most troubling about Glovers statement Eric.

    If it were just boilerplate, over-the-top rhetoric it wouldn't be that bad.

    The really bad thing IMHO, is that she so cavalierly threw out crime statistics as skewed, and then proceeded to throw out her own number, which cannot possibly even be supported.

    How would you even measure unreported sex-crimes? Much less get it to an accuaracy of 92%.

    If you can dig up where she came up with that Shadow, then I'm willing to listen to it.

    Until then I will consider it a pretty big gaffe, and it serves to remind me how dismissive of facts, the "tough on crime" agenda can be.

  74. 49 Steps - Because one's quality as a judge is not related to one's skill with language. If you're a great judge, presiding in Saskatchewan, but you don't happen to speak French, that means that the Supreme Court will not be able to consider you. By drawing from a smaller pool of candidates, the peak talent will be diluted.

    It's like if you were building the Canadian Olympic hockey team and someone said you weren't allowed to pick any players born in Manitoba. That's can't possible make the team better.

    The Supreme Court is important. Why wouldn't you want the best judges available presiding over it? And the way to get the best judges is to draw from the widest possible poll of talent.

  75. Best wishes to all, for a happy and joyful Easter.

  76. 49 steps everything in government is translated.

    How on earth do you go about testing if someone speaks enough french to be considered bilingual ?

    And at the level of supreme court the bar would be very, very high because the french being used would be complex indeed.

    Pretty much anyone who wasn't born into a bilingual home would be discounted.

    Statistically that means most of the west is out.

    Horrid bill. The senate will block it.

  77. AJR I have to say I admire your manner of thought. You are logical and reasoned!

  78. Ira,

    That's a fair point, but the point being is that this country is de jure bilingual - in some cases multilingual - and it makes sense that the Supreme Court follow the laws it creates.

    Not only that, why should those that speak French be forced to only speak English to a judge, a "really good judge" at that? Who is serving who, here? It isn't a huge compromise to make to say that judges should learn French in order to make themselves universally available and following its own laws. Lead by example.

    Besides, I'm sure nominees will have a grace period for which to learn French if they are not already versed in it. It isn't as if they'll say "Okay, you don't speak French, get the hell out of here!", especially if its a well-qualified judge.

  79. AJR79 its not my job to fact check politicians.

    She worked sex crimes and I trust her.

    I believe Andrew Coyne wrote about judging people's words against their background and expertise.

    How do you arrive at that statistic ?

    I'd start by asking around at a women's shelter:

    A) Have you ever been raped ?

    B) Did you report it to the police ?

  80. If your understanding of someone's argument is based on a translation of the French into English, then you don't have a full understanding.

    Bilingual judges is a good idea. If a judge wants to be a member of the top court in this "bilingual" country, then learn French (or English).

  81. --- How on earth do you go about testing if someone speaks enough french to be considered bilingual ?

    The federal government already has a system for judging this in place. It is used when hiring federal employees.

  82. Volkov do you really think judges should be using the lousy french they learnt when listening to a witness ?

    Or would their comprehension be better if the expert translators provided them testimony written in english they understand 100% ?

    This law basically rules anyone who

    A) Wasn't born in a bilingual household

    B) Doesn't have a university degree in French.

  83. Five words/phrases Liberals should avoid.

    1. common sense
    2. knobs
    3. G.S.T.
    4. Greenshift-Carbon Tax
    5. Advertising scandals

  84. "If your understanding of someone's argument is based on a translation of the French into English, then you don't have a full understanding."


    English/French translation has existed for hundreds of years.

    Scores of translators work for the federal government. All proceedings are translated to both official languages anyways.

    These are legal arguements based on clear logical sentences.

    Its not like we're translating Les Miserables or something !

  85. Shadow,

    I think you're underestimating the ability of the judges to speak French, and overestimating the ability of the translators to get through what they're saying properly. Nothing is 100%, but at least with a judge listening and talking and understanding in the first person, there is less of a chance of a mistake being made, as well as a better leeway with interpretation and etc.

    Besides, as I said - the Court's judges should lead by example. They should follow their own laws, and they should provide the best availability to everyone who comes there with a case. Canada is bilingual. It's a reality that should have been resolved years ago in the psyche of some. This simply makes sense.

  86. We are a bilingual nation.

    Any judge who has aspirations, of sitting on the Supreme Court, should have enough brains in their head to know that they should learn French (or English)

  87. Volkov both Dosangh and Aglukkaq had prior experience with healthcare.

    Dosangh made it a focus when he was premier. And Aglukkaq was the territorial minister of health I believe.

    Once you've been a minister you can tend to jump around because its all about mastering a file and managing the beaurocrats.

    But I think when you're just breaking into cabinet you should have a background that fits with your appointment. Otherwise its like: "ok here go try this."

    Preferably new ministers would have prior experience as parliamentary secretaries in their portfolio.

    Kinda like an understudy.

  88. Law of the land, myself, Ira, and CS on one side.

    49 steps, Volkov, and Eric on the other.

    I'd say its a draw except with the law being the way it is our side seems to have the upper hand.

  89. Shadow,

    I meant literal healthcare, as in working in the medical profession. Sorry for the confusion.

    And where do you get the "law of the land" on your side part from? As far as I knew, bilingualism was a law of the land.

  90. Volkov I mean as the law currently stands it is not a requirement for a supreme court judge to be bilingual.

    This bill is trying to change that but until it passes (as I said the senate will probably block it) the law of the land is what it is.

    Its not a requirement for MPs, ministers, or many other people associated with the federal gov't to be bilingual either.

    Legal bilingualism is a nebulous concept that can mean as little as we'll find a translator.

  91. Shadow,

    Then the "law being on your side" is a moot point, because if we're discussing changing the law, invoking the authority of the law we're trying to change makes little sense.

    And we've already discussed the translator issue. First-hand bilingualism has more benefits and more reliability than translators.

    As for the Senate... I wouldn't bet on it. The Conservatives don't have an absolute majority, and they need 3 extra votes to have a majority. The Liberals need 5. There are 5 independents. Two of them are from Quebec and/or a francophone area, two are from Ontario, and one is from Alberta. All of them were not appointed by Harper, and the ones appointed by the Conservatives were appointed by Mulroney and Clark.

    Not to mention the many Mulroney Conservatives from Quebec in the Senate, which could present a problem.

  92. Volkov the law being on my side was a nessecary rebuke to all this talk about "we're a bilingual nation" as if that was a self-evident reason why the law should be changed.

    True bilingualism is more effective than translators agreed. However, as Ira pointed out that limits the talent pool considerably.

    I maintain that the French most people learn as a second language w/o immersion or lengthy university study is not as good as translators.

    As for the senate, maybe you're right.

    However, it should also be noted that its easy to tie things up there. And the composition of the relevent committee is probably a more important factor than the composition of the committee of the whole.

    It could just get bogged down until the next election or until prorogation next xmas gives Harper an absolute senate majority.

  93. Shadow,

    But it is a self-evident reason why the law must be changed. Our courts are deemed by law to be available in both French and English, and that includes the Supreme Court. It makes sense to then say that the judges on this highest of high courts should be versed in both languages to the degree that it makes available every judge to the people of Canada in a reasonable way.

    As for "limiting the talent pool," it's only limited insofar that judge nominees are unwilling to learn French. I don't think we'll get many of those.

  94. On the motion from the Bloc on splitting the French vote like the Liberal motion on funding for abortions in the third world.

    Pathetic. Political Games.

    Is this an employment equity issue?

  95. Eric:
    Bilingual judges is a good idea. If a judge wants to be a member of the top court in this "bilingual" country, then learn French (or English).

    I agree, this country is bilangué, that a Supreme Court judge would not be is a disgrace

  96. 49

    Well seems I haven't missed a thing
    The level of discourse on here has dropped even further'

    Seems it's a love-in for the tOries and I haven't missed a thing.

  97. Goaltender: "OTTAWA [CP]: The Christian Heritage Party, Marxist-Leninist Party and Natural Law Party have announced their immediate merger, following an EKOS poll suggesting that their united "Other" Party would win almost 5% of the vote if an election were held tomorrow..."

    Sorry, you've barely scratched the surface. And any meger that doesn't include the Malevolent Party of Canada is clearly going nowhere.

    The linked page shows why an aggregate "Other" share of 3.1% could be reasonable: the tail may be thin, but it's long. A reality check, though: in the last election, the five major parties had 98.85% of the vote in total. If those two numbers are in any way comparable, the Other GOTV left 60% of the potential votes on the table.

    I could believe that. If you tell the pollster you're a Natural Law Party supporter and then stay home on election day, the net effect on the party's fortunes will be... nothing.

  98. Volkov if it was self evident that the law needed to be changed a constitutional challenge would have long ago resulted in such.

    As I said there is no barrier to access, that is a silly arguement.

    Currently anyone from any language can use our court systems, even if they themselves do not speak english or french.

    Translators are used in legal settings around the world.

    I see no practical arguement for why judges need to be bilingual.

    Typical BQ entitlement and typical Liberal weakness paying lipservice to said entitlement.

    Not everybody worships at the alter of Trudeau's official bilingualism. And you guys wonder why you can't win seats in the west.

  99. Volkov any thoughts on whether the Liberals will help push through the 30 new seats ?

    PS. Speaking of the importance of bilingualism its sure a big plus for Shelly Glover who is fluent in french due to her metis heritage.

  100. Shelley Glover,

    Doesn't make any sense in either official language.

    She is a crackpot.

  101. In my earlier comment I left out the most amusing part of this week's EKOS poll from a Green perspective: the party is polling second in Alberta. At 14.8%, it's 0.2% ahead of the Liberals there. Given the 6.8% margin of error, this is meaningless; even the Dippers at 11.6% are well within the MOE, but the numbers do provide some entertainment.

    Green numbers were highest in Alberta in this poll, but even if they are to be believed (psst: wanna buy a bridge?) that is not where the first Green MP will be elected. With the even spread of Green support, the party needs a riding where the other parties (or at least two of them) are splitting the vote. With the Alberta Tories still over 50%, the riding won't be there.

    You heard it here first: when the first Green MP is elected we will hear Grit and Tory gnashing of teeth and rending of garments at the unfairness of it all, because that candidate will have come up the middle and won with well under 50% of the riding vote. Our antiquated first-past-the-post system will have delivered locally helpful results for the Greens at the same time as the party will have been awarded a fraction of the seats it would earn if the returns matched the popular vote.

  102. Hey Eric

    If the seat changes proposal goes through, you'll have to rename your blog!

  103. Shadow,

    I'm not too sure, to be honest. I remember the main issue back in '07 was that Ontario was getting shafted; there are some questions now that this might be too big of an expansion, and possibly too big of a change to the way ridings are doled out, because they're shifting from the old formula.

    However, I don't see any opposition yet coming from the Liberals, just some caution. They did get a lot of what they wanted. My guess is that it'll pass.

    ThreeThirtyEight, here we come!

  104. Shadow: Volkov any thoughts on whether the Liberals will help push through the 30 new seats ?

    I'm not Volkov, but I can try playing him on the internet.

    Riding redistribution addresses electoral fairness and it's hard to see how any party apart from the Bloc could reasonably be against it. (OK, the Bloc can't reasonably be against it either, but their reaction is at least expected.)

    The legislation itself won't out detailed boundaries. It will be up to Elections Canada to define these and the parties will have very little opportunity for gerrymandering. Most of the new ridings will undoubtedly be around Toronto, but I'd expect a few elsewhere in the province. Even without creating additional seats, there are places where urban/rural Frankenridings would benefit from boundary adjustment.

    Will the new ridings (or the redistributed existing ridings) disproportionately tend to go Tory? Possibly, but if so, that's a reflection of the will of the electorate, and a temporary reflection. The 905 belt won't be blue forever. Any party would be ill-advised to push back on tactical grounds. The current Tories have a bad track record in this respect, but this time their tactical advantage and doing the right thing coincide.

    One way or another, it will be very surprising if these seats are in play in the next election. Riding redistribution takes time and after Elections Canada has finished the shuffle-and-deal, the riding associations of all stripes need to perform their own mitosis and candidate square dance. Democracy is ill-served if that has to be done at fire-drill pace.

  105. The new ridings won't be available probably until 2012. The next election will happen much sooner.

  106. Volkov is right. There won't be new ridings until at least 1 more election.

    Summer 2013 they'll be created and usually there's a year for them to take effect, although last time that was shortened in time for the 2004 election.

    I don't know about you guys by i'm itching for an election !

    Harper doesn't like elections and is probably planning on governing until fall of 2012!

    PS - Anyone else catch Mike Lake and his son on power play ?

    Definetly something to think about, more research is certainly needed. If only to debunk this vaccines cause autism nonsense.

  107. "Best wishes to all, for a happy and joyful Easter."

    People keep saying things like this to me when I'm out in the world. Why can't people keep their religious holidays away from my kids?

    There's nothing wrong with you saying it here, Éric; it's your blog. You can say whatever you like.

  108. Ira,

    Earl said that, not me.

  109. I'm sorry Ira. But I am gonna do it too. Happy Easter. I like holidays, and like many others that have been basically universalized to most of the country.... Easter is another (like Christmas) that is celebrated by many religions and cultures just because neighbors do it.

    However if you are that opposed to such holidays, I can only assume that you will be working during it... for regular pay (Not stat pay.) through easter, christmas, thanksgiving, etc... since many of our stat holidays are based on religious holidays that you don't support. I bet you don't even like green beer :p

  110. Ira for a great deal of people easter is a secular greeting of spring involving chocolates and bunnies.

    I strongly doubt anyone is trying to convert your kids.

    Just celebrating a mass marketed capitalist holiday the free market has created to maximixe profits.

    Ayn Rand would be proud.

  111. Ayn Rand would disapprove, actually, since Easter involves a certain amount of emotional involvement, as well as overtones of personal and collective sacrifice. Ayn Rand's philosophy objected (get it? "objected"?) to that.

  112. "we are a bilingual nation"


    Manitoba and New Brunswick are the only 2 provinces that recognize that.

    There is only one province in Canada that has declared itself uni-lingual. (one would think it would be the most interested in official bilingualism).

    The rest of Canada pays lipservice at best to bilingualism. Its provided and required in government services. But you don't see it on the street.

    And even Manitoba with 19k french speakers has more German speaking persons, and nearly as many Cree. New Brunswick actually benefits from nearly 1/3 of their population being french speaking.

    But none of the territories have much of a french population. NWT and Nunavut were divided on the approximate language line of Athapaskan and Inuktitut language groups.

    In BC there is only 15k... easily equaled by Spanish, German, Farsi, Korean, Vietnamese, Pilipino,.. .and blown out of the water by: Punjabi, Cantonese, Mandarin. ... that is 690k allophones.

    In Alberta the 20k french speakers are equaled by German, Spanish, Punjabi, Cantonese.

    Saskatchewan has only 4k... German, Cree, Dene, various Chinese.

    Manitoba: Cree and german.

    The entire west would be better off with German as an official language instead of French. Even Spanish, or the Algonquian language group is more prevalent through the entire west

    Ontario must be different.... 289k french speaking persons. And while there is no single language that equals that... with 1.8 million allophones, nearly every language group does.

    Quebec contains 6 million of the 7 million French speaking persons in Canada. More than 1/2 of the last million reside in NB, and Ontario (12 million in ont).

    The maratimes (exception of NB and Nfld) have small populations, but they atleast equal the allophones. NFLD's population is minute.

    So in the east, official bilingualism is actually valuable to the extent that there is a sufficiently large population to cater to. Possibly even in Ontario. In the west... there are better choices as far as the size of the population is concerned.

    It is one more reason why the west feels put upon by others in confederation. One more reason for the divide in values that exists.

    Source: stat's can: "Language spoken at home"

  113. I guess the question I have is... Why an official language policy for the entire country when the population of Canadians whose language at home is French amounts to less than 3% of the population of Canada outside Quebec.


    .... Will Pat Martin receive the same treatment at the hands of the press as Geurgis??

  115. Barcs,

    Will Pat Martin get the same treatment as Guergis.

    I HOPE SO!!

    He is a pain in the butt, who does nothing for Manitoba.

  116. Barcs,

    The difference is that Martin's assistant was a University of Ottawa organizer before her association with Martin, didn't do anything at the direction of Martin, and didn't do anything at the taxpayer's expense or dignity.

    Guergis' assistants did.

  117. Volkov its about ethics.

    Why would a guy deeply involved in the Liberal party, used to work for Iggy, not tell the press his association when he was interviewed by the CBC and slammed the H1N1 vaccine program ?

    How many regular joes being interviewed by the CBC just happen to have worked for Iggy.

  118. They had a public relations guru on PowerPlay who explained these media campaign happen all the time.

    Astroturf and the like. But its always done by friends of friends or second cousins, that sort of thing.

    So either Geurgis

    A) Knows nothing about politics (unlikely given her and her family are all politicos).

    B) Various people in her life who love her decided to defend her to the press which happens, oh I don't know, just about 100% of the time someone is attacked.

    This "gotcha" is sad, sad, sad. The only reason its being pursued is a last ditch effort to keep Geurgis and Jaffer in the headlines.

    If nothing had come before this the official leader of the opposition would not lower himself so much to talk about gossip.

  119. Shadow great article on rising star

    Glover has become a go-to-woman on law-and-order issues when a bilingual speaker is in demand, and when someone is needed to crack some opposition heads on TV or in committee.

  120. Barcs when Canada was formed in 1867 a contract was made between the people of Lower Canada (Quebec) and the rest of Canada. That contract guarantees a certain level of service in either of the official languages throughout Canada. As the West joined Canada they assumed that responsibility.

    Why it irritates people is beyond me. So we have two languages on our cereal boxes. What's the big deal? If a francophone goes before the courts in any province they should be able to be tried in French. Same for an anglophone in Quebec. These are things that we permit to divide us rather than uniting us. Today children throughout Canada have the opportunity to learn two languages. For my generation bilingualism was something for the elites. Today it is there for everyone.

    I didn't have an opportunity to study French until high school and failed miserably at it. I was fortunate that the requirement of a second language was dropped just as I entered university. Today I wish I had been exposed to French at an early age. I would chose to learn French were I starting school today.

    We are a bilingual country. We should appreciate that and allow that to unite us, not divide us.

  121. CS thank you for the link !

    I knew I wasn't the only one cheering for Glover and noticing her rise.

    The fact that the media (and opposition) has caught on validates my prediction that she'll be in cabinet next shuffle !

    If Geurgis does go i'd say Glover is probably candidate #1 to get her job.

  122. Earl bilingualism doesn't mean that every citizen speaks both french and english.

    It means that some speak only french, some speak only english, and some speak both.

    All three groups of people should be able to rise to any position in our society.

    Throwing up language barriers to joining the supreme court is a mistake.

    Eric is talking about language tests.

    Brilliant legal minds having a french (or english) test administered to them like they were school children. Pass they get the job, fail somebody else does.

    Its a disgraceful notion. A bigoted notion. A totalitarian notion.

  123. Shadow I said nothing about the SOC. I happen to agree with your position although I think it highly desirable that SOC justices be bilingual.

    Secondly at no time did I say that every citizen ought to be bilingual. I don't believe that. I did say that as a personal preference I wish that I had had the opportunity to study French at a young age and to have indeed been bilingual. It is a great skill to have. Other than that I have no other comments.

  124. Earl apologies I interpreted this remark to mean you were commenting on the court:

    "If a francophone goes before the courts in any province they should be able to be tried in French."

    They, of course, do have that right.

    Often thanks to the work that translators do. Same with the translators in parliament who let us hear what the BQ members are saying when the tv networks air question period.

    I'm annoyed at people disparaging their work.

    Both Eric and Volkov have suggested its not a good as having bilingual judges.

    I think it works just fine, just as good.

    No need to change the system and rock the boat.

    Frankly i've never actually heard this complaint until this legislation was introduced. If it aint broke don't fix it.

  125. Shadow,

    you are welcome with the link on Shelly.

    English is the language of global commerce. It would be more efficient to take course in cultural history.

    Mandarin, Spanish, Hindi should take a higher priority vs French.

  126. I really hope the Tories give Shelly Glover the highest possible profile. She's so stupid and abrasive that everytime she appears on TV she will lose the Tories thousands of votes.

  127. DL oh yeah she'd be a public relations disaster.

    Native girl survives abusive, alcoholic family and teen pregnancy to become tough cop turned high level politician.

    Nothing inspiring in that story at all.


    Next shuffle, mark my words, she'll be in cabinet.

  128. Shadow,

    Do you notice how some posters regularly attack females who don't belong to their political party with character assassination attacks only?

    They don't criticize policy position but suggest she must be stupid instead and is wallpaper.

    Rejection at a young age, fear of attractive women, just curious what the clinical diagnosis would be for this mindset.

  129. Someone raised the topic of brain-dead Shelly Glover and I'm putting in my two cents worth. Anyone who could say on national TV that she knows for a fact that inmates all vote Liberal and cops all vote Tory is ipso-facto STUPID.

    I don't single out women. I've attacked Harper and his closeted gay acolyte John Baird as well. Not to mention Rahim Jaffer!

    When we rightwing parties offer up such imbecilic people as Shelly Glover, Helena Guergis or Sarah Palin - its hard not to take the bait. There are plenty of other Tory women that I never attack because they seem like reasonable people - I'm actually kind of fond of Deborah Grey and I don't mind Dian Ablonczy either - but she is now politicaly dead because she doesn't hate gays enough for Harper and his closeted gay side-kick John Baird.

  130. CS if I had to guess what's behind the sexism and rage directed at conservative women i'd say its because they provide a "safe" outlet for the repressed emotions of lefties.

    Under their philosophy women are always right.

    Of course this is nonsense, arguements should stand on their own merits regardless of the gender of who is making them.

    But being a straight white guy in a leftist movement means biting your tongue a lot. Being told that your biology automatically means you cannot be sensitive or understanding enough no matter what you do.

    A conservative woman is not really considered a woman (see articles in '08 about Palin not being female, previous commentary about Clarence Thomas not being black).

    Thus they make the perfect targets for pent up leftist males to attack.

  131. Shadow,

    that makes sense. It must be tough at home for these males not being able to having the final decisions. Being told what to do at work with females in charge.

    I do sense a great deal of hostility and anger for only conservative women.

    I was thinking their mommies were very strict and this was also an escape to hide behind an internet alias to attack women.

    Hopefully these cowards don't ever snap in real life and do real damage.

  132. Women in politics often get it from both sides - take a look at the intensity of the witch-hunt-like crusades you see in the wingnuts of the loony right against Hilary Clinton or Nancy Pelosi.

  133. The witch-hunts on gender or character assassination may have both right and left males participating.

    Attack the ideas and policies.

    It is clear a very small number of men behind their internet alias think it is acceptable to call women stupid on a regular basis.

    As I said earlier cowards, and probably issues in their childhood.

  134. I call stupid people stupid - I really don't care about their gender!

    Maxime Bernier isn't exactly a rocket scientist either.

  135. CS there's a new attack on Israel and Shelly Glover up over at CTV:

    Note they use Glover's picture with negative headline. They feature her and other rising star, gun registry killer Candace Hoepner at the tough, hard hitting part of the story. Essentially accusing them of going on pro-Israel junkets.

    They don't give any impression that other party MPs also do so, only mention Conservatives at first.

    Then they bring in Errol Mendes, fail to mention his partisan Liberal affiliation, and he attacks the process (and Israel by extension).

    Bob Rae comes in at the end as the reasonable one offering up positive solutions, not the two bad Conservative women on the take at the start of the clip.


    This sort of media bias is why the CBC needs to be destroyed and foriegn ownership laws swept aside. New capital and new market space would allow Canada to have conservative voices on television instead of choosing between a Liberal CTV and a far left NDP CBC.

  136. Shadow,

    The media in general is very lazy. They cherry pick the same experts and always go to them for their expert opinion. They have adopted a TMZ tabloid, gotcha mentality recycling a 15 sec soundbite. They spent millions talking about a grass roots non partisan movement - perogies ignoring the historical context and the NDP organizers leading the rallies. Almost as bad as the wafer non story.

    The CBC does not have a single news product in the top 30. It is a taxpayer sinkhole. If you look at the ratings our taxes go to support a low quality product and American gameshows.

    Deregulation would be the best routes and let them sink if they can't compete.

    If you want to have your own culture step up and pay for it yourself.

  137. CTV is Liberal?

    Who knew.

    For the latest on the Guergis follies.

  138. The popularity of Canadian opposition leader Michael Ignatieff remains extremely low, according to a poll by Angus Reid Public Opinion. 16 per cent of respondents approve of the Liberal Party leader, down three points since February.

    In the coalition Jack can demand he becomes PM with these leadership numbers.

  139. Hey Earl, thanks for the kind words.

    I hold your opinions, and demeanour, in high regard as well.

    Happy Easter to you, and yours.

    PS - Use care when stroking an already inflated ego.

    My admiration for my own logic, and reasoning skills, is already more then they deserve. ;)

  140. Shadow and CS,

    Your Glover love-in, is reaching some pretty ridiculous depths here.

    Here is the question I have for you:

    Are you comfortable with a Conservative dismissing solid crime statistics from StasCan, and then substituting her own unsourced, and unsubstatiated statistic?

    Is that the image you would like to portry of the CPC? Nevermind the facts, we have our own "facts"?

    After that pathetic defense of the crime agenda, you want to sing her praises? What planet are you on?

    You are fortunate that the lefties have seemed to have missed the boat on this one, and are more concerned with word games.

    If they were to attack The Conservatives as not believing in facts, it would be a lot more devastating.

    Here is what your spin sounds like:

    That Shelly Glover sure is great, she knows the system so well she doesn't have to rely on StatsCan at all, only her own exprience.

    She is so brave to boldly deny those statistics, that I don't know how anyone could lose respect for her over it.

    Anyone who attacks her in any way, must be a leftie with a small penis, who wasn't breastfed, and whose mother hated him.

    Oh, and the CBC is communist, as evidenced by those raving lefties, Coyne and Rex Murphy.

    It's not, "fair and balanced", the way I'd like.

    Keep on with this kind of talk, if you'd like me to keep beating you over the head with it.

    Take of the partisan blinders, and give an honest look at things once and a while. It would do you a world of good.

  141. As far as bilingual judges on the supreme court, I'll be on the side of Shadow, Earl, Ira, and CS.
    (nice for a change)

    I'm rather amazed that this wasn't already required, but I do not think that it should be changed now.

    The best legal mind should be chosen for the court, whether he/she be english, french, or german speaking.

    Limiting ourselves by excluding unilingual candidates, can only dilute the available talent pool.

    There is no bar on selections now, creating a new one seems counter-productive.

    I do not share Volkovs view, that it would be easy enough for someone 50-60+, to just pick up a second language.

    I hope this goes down hard.

  142. AJR79,

    You are free to frame her comments to the question as a most serious offense.

    Last time I checked, I don't remember claiming a female politican can never utter a silly comment or in the words of a politician "misstatement".

    I have not watched the interview. I take offence to 2-3 posters who insult conservative women as "stupid" on a daily basis.

    It does nothing for debate. Just as labeling skeptics as a denier. It simply is used by some to frame and silence any criticism.

    I have my opinion of media bias in our media including the CBC. You may feel well served by the level of journalism in Canada.

    I was delighted my tax dollars at the CBC in covering "wafergate" in 2009 for nearly two weeks.

    You have a problem with BBM ratings? Are you a happy taxpayer to fund Wheel of Fortune, Jeopardy and Don Cherry? (700k salary)

    Is this protecting Canadian culture?

    Did I use the word communist in describing the CBC, or like your earlier accusations did you make that up as well?


    Re: Crime Agenda?

    Wanting minimum sentences for violent offenders?

    I did not subscribe to the opposition claims of the CPC wanting to have "children" sent to jail as flesh candy or the Billion dollar LGR saves lives.

    Same with raising taxes to avert the Catastrophic Global Warming Theory.

  144. 49
    "CTV is Liberal?

    Who knew."

    Well even they are reacting to the insanity of the Harper Govt. I mean they are human, unlike a lot of folk on here I might add.

  145. This comment has been removed by the author.

  146. 49 steps stop the presses !!

    Geurgis purchased a house. Wow.

    Wait, did she get married too ?

    What scandal will occur next, being seen eating dinner at a nice restaurant ?

  147. AJR79 please read this and then retract your reckless, hair trigger attacks on Shelly Glover.

    Not waiting to assess the validity of her remarks, simply claiming they were wrong off hand, demonstrated an unfortunate bias on your part.

    "Mihorean (2001) noted that almost 60% of victimization incidents were not reported to police; only ... 1/10 of the sexual assaults discovered in the GSS were reported to the police".

  148. AJR79 considering that Glover was right on the mark I think CS and I speculating at why lefties would attack Glover as stupid was perfectly fair.

    Considering she's right and they're wrong yet they continue to launch these ridiculous attacks on her.

    PS - 15 minutes of Rex and Coyne on a thursday night is easily cancelled out by giving David Suzuki endless air time.

    Also its the editorializing by supposedly neutral hosts, the topics chosen, and the reporting being done during the week that is of concern, not whether their talking heads are balanced.

  149. Shadow,

    don't be hard on AJ,

    for branding us over the top without actual facts to back them up.

    As a blogger I am being accused of paid by the CPC according to Scott Reid on the CBC.

    I am called a denier for not trusting politicians from ANY party to raise taxes to "fix it" and save the planet.

    I read the same posters attack females from one political idealogy repeatedly.

    I get called a "sub-human" by a person who keeps promising to leave and not return for a socialist paradise on other blogs but never does.

    Shadow I have not difficulty in being critical without character assassination.

    Ruby Dhalla's idea to reduce the number of years to collect a pension from 10 to 3 years is too expensive. If memory is correct her own party is not supporting this idea.

  150. Ugh, you guys are tiresome.

  151. Peter,

    Shadow comes on here and whines about 1 story he saw on CTV.

    He fails to mention the 5000+ questionable news casts, about Liberals let through by Robert Hurst.

    As for the Guergis house.

    It is not the fact she bought a house.

    She represents Simcoe-Grey, and promised to buy a home their six years ago.

    She doesn't want to live among the great unwashed, in her own riding.

    No she wants to live in a $880000, house in Rockcliffe, Ottawa.

    Already questions are being raised about the mortgage, and down payment.

    Princess Helena is a real tool.

  152. CS it took me ten seconds to find that link to the justice ministry that backed up everything Shelly Glover was saying.

    I just think if AJ is going to join in bashing Glover as uninformed/stupid he should check and see if she was right or not.

    Volkov, Aaron Wherry over @ Macleans, even that pro-Glover article you linked to didn't bother to fact check her, just assumed she was a Prairie hick.

    Someone who knows her stuff, wants to get tough on crime, she's the kind of person we need front and center selling Harper's legislation.

    The media is starting to push back against it pretty hard. Especially the prison budgets. And those same old criminologist "experts" they love to quote.

    As for Dhalla I think that was more about getting ethnic votes and saving her own skin next election.

    Don't know if she'll get knocked off or not. Ujjal Dosangh will definetly be gone though.

  153. 49 Steps the only person raising "questions" about the mortgage and downpayment was that idiotic website you linked to.

    Unfortunately the blogger, who's understanding of banking is laughable, embarrased himself by calling for a public inquiry into Helen's house ! LOL.

    Talk about desperate. This story has no more legs. You can try and stretch the gotchas as long as you want but its done and forgoten by Canadians.

    And Geurgis grew up in that riding, her family is involved in all kinds of municipal politics, and she has plenty of places to stay when she goes back.

    But she is a minister which means she needs to spend more time in Ottawa then the average MP.

    Nothing wrong with buying a house there at all.

  154. Actually Shadow, I was just looking at this and preparing my Mea culpa.

    I was wrong about the ability to collect these stats, but this is where she got it.
    She did not make this stat up. (but was wrong by 1%, Big deal)

    Now I suggest you read the whole thing and determine if this was in any way relevant to the arguement she was trying to make, about StasCan being unreliable in pridicting a downward trend in crime.

    It has absolutly no bearing, as sex crimes as a whole (including unreporteds) have decreased slightly between 99-04.

    This was a red herring of the worst order. I'm going to think about if this is better, or worse, then making up statistics.
    You should too.

    Using emotionally charged sex-crimes data, to obscure the facts about a downward trend in crime, when it HAS NO BEARING on that trend, seems to be a bit immoral.

    It still doesn't impress me, but I WAS WRONG, about those statistics.

    Unlike some, I trust StatsCan and use there findings properly.

    Not to obfuscate the issue around crime in this country, like Shelly Glover did.

    She may be TOO ready for primetime.

  155. We need to be "Smart on Crime"
    Not "Tough on crime".

    Maybe those criminologist experts know what they are talking about.

    That tough on crime rhetoric, is bullshit. Anybody who has half a brain knows it.

    Yes Shadow, I am positive every MP serving in Ottawa, has bought a $800000 home.

    You are really out of it.

  156. Shadow,

    One more thing, think about the irony, and the deceit, of using StatsCan data to undermine other StatsCan data as skewed.

    I don't think she uninformed anymore, but I'm starting to think she's immoral.

    Unless you can see how that study supports her arguement.

    I don't see how, maybe you can?

  157. Two things I don't mind about the crime agenda:

    1) Toughening the youth offeders laws a bit, as they did.

    2)getting rid of the 2 for 1 credit for pre-trial detainment.

    The rest is very questionable stuff IMO, and will cost a ton more money.

  158. What Shelly Glover said were the reasons for the non-repoting of sex-crimes "Because they don’t have faith in the justice system, they’re fearing retribution".

    The reasons giving in the report she was citing, "The most commonly stated reason why victims of sexual assault did not report the incident to the police was because they felt it was not important enough (58%). Victims also stated that they did not report to police because the incident was dealt with in another way (54%); they felt that it was a personal matter (47%); or they did not want to get involved with the police (41%)."

    I don't see how you can feel good about this Shadow. I really don't.

  159. Shadow, AJR79,

    ...can you imagine the reaction in Canada if these diplomatic slaps in the face had come from the Republican Condoleezza Rice instead of the Democrat Hillary Clinton?

    Great article.

  160. The "slaps" Hillary gave Canada were warranted.

    What she said was correct.

    How can you have a maternal health plan and not include family planning and access to safe abortions.

    Thousands of women in developing countries die each year due to botched abortions.

    That was her point.

    She was also right on the Arctic Council. (Not a Harper initiative)

    Maybe you should analyze, the content of what Mrs. Clinton had to say.

    I suspect most Canadians would agree with her point of view.

  161. Hillary can be blunt, and come in with her elbows up when forwarding U.S interests.

    I suspect that this has to do with how comfortable she is in the power circles of foreign governments.

    You do have a point CS, that if Condie Rice came to Canada, and tried to push that global gag rule on us, I would not have been happy at all.

    Who knows what might have happened if the Liberals, had put forward a G-8 maternal health initiative?

    They managed to avoid that tar-baby.

    Seeing how I agree with 2/3 of the things Clinton said, I'm not upset at all.

    I've had a great respect for her since this trip to Pakistan.

    I'd be interested in your thoughts CS, as to how she handled the Pakistanis, and how much theve come onside since that trip.

    I like her upfront, rough and tough diplomacy.

    IMO, you may as well put your concerns on the table, and let people talk about them.

  162. AJR79,

    I am consistent regardless of what any American thinks or if I personally agree with a foreigner's position.

    As a guest in a democratic country a minority parliament she broke every rule.

    This is not Pakistan or a country where the opposition or rule of law does not apply.

    Reminds me of the China's human rights rebuke and our media and opposition playing up the insult with China.

    Is the Opposition, media consistent on human rights, free trade compare China vs Columbia?

    The Liberals finally got off blocking the Free Trade Deal with Colombia.

    What about rights of rule of law equal right for Women or Gays in the middle east?

    My point is the opposition and our media are not consistent in their application of their morality filter.

  163. AJR79 my understanding is that there has been a recent uptick in violent crimes, especially gang related murders.

    Its property crimes that have led the decrease but that's simply because people have stopped reporting them because cops never respond and our justice system is clogged.

    New York City used to have the same broken window problem.

    Weirdly enough I would expect reported crime rates to go up if the police force got better.

    Sort of like how the US unemployment numbers don't change even though the job picture is marginally better simply because people who have previously given up on trying to find work (and aren't reported) flood back into the system.

  164. I believe Harper was rebuked by China, not over human rights but his failure in taking so long to visit China.

    I was not aware of any laws broken by Clinton, while in Canada.

    Were there any?

    I will now avoid any tar baby myself and cease my commenting.

  165. AJR79,

    Just a random thought if you will permit.

    I don't believe CS, answered your question on Clinton re Pakistan.

    I think she did fine. She told the Pakiistani's that they have to start getting serious about combating militants, and terrorists in their country.

    They have been conducting raids, along the North West tribal belt, bordering Afghanistan, in the last few months. They have killed quite a few militants.

    They seem to be getting serious about fighting terrorism.

    Just a couple days ago there was a raid in Peshawar, where another 36 militants were killed. Also unfortunately, 6 soldiers.

    So Clinton has brought them along, and this is a good thing.

  166. AJR79 it strikes me that Glover's reasons for people not reporting sex crime could be covered in these two catagories:

    "...they felt that it was a personal matter (47%); or they did not want to get involved with the police (41%)."

    Isn't that exactly what she said ? There are other reasons yes but it was a quick interview, I don't expect her to list off everything.

    Also go back and read the link you posted:

    "According to victimization data, the rates of sexual assault remained stable in recent years, while police-reported data show a trend of steady decline in offences coming to the attention of law enforcement."

    So Glover was exactly right.

    StatsCan shows a decline in offence but victimization data shows no such thing.

    That's the conclusion of this report.

    Your conclusion seems completely off base.

    Now granted, stable is not the same thing as increasing. But I believe she brought up sex crimes to make the point about unreported crime given its her background.

    It doesn't nessecarily follow that she was saying Canadians are seeing more sex crimes, just more crime in general.

    Which also seems to be true in the last 2 or 3 years.

  167. Shelly Glover speaks with authority and is more of an expert than any of the "smart on crime" blowhards.

    Her promotion to cabinet seems likely, in a jr role.

    Eventually she will be public safety minister. Whether she goes back to policing or becomes the next Prime Minister of Canada is up to her.

  168. Shadow, AJR79,

    It is funny watching how the opponents of the current government defend their position.

    Human Rights: MSM-left support Chinese Government in rebuking our human rights record or this current Gov't's to criticize China. (Interesting)

    Environment: MSM-left ignore reality praise Communist China, Democrat led US that account for over 40% vs our 2% total. Drill baby drill Obama!

    Soveriegnity: The MSM-left take Russia/US/Nordic interests' over our own if they can slag our PM.

    This is not blind pathological hatred, okey dokey!

    Many of us don't agree wholesale with everything from any gov't at any level but in four years list the alternatives introduced into parliament for debate.

    The opposition have ALWAYS been in the majority and are responsible to challenge and introduce alternatives, they failed.

    Perspective, reality vs perception. The coalition of the left is dysfunctional it won't change if they are in power.

  169. Hey 49

    "Shelly Glover speaks with authority and is more of an expert than any of the "smart on crime" blowhards."

    Shadow obviously has a BIG thing for blonde bimbo's !! Give it up guy, none of these listen and most of them get their stuff from the Con website with its potted letters !!

  170. Peter reducing Shelly Glover to "blonde bimbo" seems to vindicate the conversation CS and I were having, despite AJR79's criticism.

    Further, Peter, after it turned out she was RIGHT and knew her crime stats better than any of your Liberal or NDP members you still insist on insulting her intelligence ?

  171. AJR79 said

    Anyone who attacks her in any way, must be a leftie with a small penis, who wasn't breastfed, and whose mother hated him.


    ignores facts or perspective, chooses to repeats gender based attacks on females from only one political idealogy.

    Any idea AJR79 why Shadow or myself won't engage in sexist attacks on political opponents, why 'looking away' is the norm unless it is their camp or idealogy?

  172. --- Peter reducing Shelly Glover to "blonde bimbo" seems to vindicate the conversation CS and I were having, despite AJR79's criticism.

    Only in the case of Peter. When a supporter of the Liberals or NDP says something stupid here, that is not necessarily indicative of the "left".

  173. Eric

    every political camp have a small number of partisans who engage in those line of attacks on a regular basis.

    I like many have no interest for partisans attacking politicians on their gender, race, sexual orientation etc.

    Go after the individual for their policy.

  174. The only people who attack anyone for their gender, race or sexual orientation are people on the right - who tend to racist, sexist and homophobic. Look at how it was the Tories themselves who went on a homophobic witchhunt to crucify Diane Ablonczy because she gave a grant to a gay pride event.

    No one is attacking Glover BECAUSE she's a woman - people are attacking her because she's a human being who keeps saying really stupid things. If she were a man and said the same stupid things it would be just as bad.

    Its not my fault that the individuals in the Tory caucus who are getting all the negative publicity these days

  175. Shadow,

    I think it would be a good idea if I bounced some of my discomforts about the crime agenda off you, and see if you can set me at ease.

    I'll save Glover, and her stat, for another post.

    I'm obviously not the most knowledgeable about crime statistics, but I did a quick look about violent crime in Canada.

    The first graph (under the map) here shows a pretty steady decline from 91-07.

    An aspect of the crime agenda that bothers me is the Mandatory Minimums. The arguements for them seem to me to be weak, compared to the costs involved, and lack of effectiveness in deterence.

    There are certain crimes, where you could make a case for MM's that I may be amenable too, but for the most part I don't believe in one size fits all justice. I also think it would be far better to focus on the conviction rates, rather then the punishments.

    While everyone has heard an outrageous story or two about a rapist who got off easy, or something like that, it does not follow that the answer is to take the discretion away from the judiciary.

    I see that this is getting a bit long, so I'll take my discomforts in separate posts, to give you a chance to respond.

  176. John, Eric

    both of you have a belief in AGW?

    Any thoughts on Greenpeace article?

  177. DL,

    I didn't realise the left was so pure.

    If I were to use some of the attacks that I've seen you use against Guergis, you would rightly label me a sexist.

    I do know there is some truth, that there is a double standard here. The left can get away with saying things the right cannot.

    I was only mocking CS, because I thought they were taking it a bit far.

    I will say that I can't recall Shadow/CS ever attacking a woman on the left in a sexist way, but I do recall you doing so. Implying that a woman got where she is just because she's a woman, while it may sometimes be true, is a accusation you should use with extreme caution.

    Also if you think Glover is stupid, think again. She has political wile, and would probably hand young Trudeau his ass, on any given Sunday.

  178. AJR79 I don't like when the law gets too rigid either, to the point that legitimate mitigating circumstances are ignored.

    Ex. Young American teens being charged, going on sex offender registries, and being forced to do group therapy meetings with serial rapists because they were caught "sexting".

    But the system has gotten so lax in Canada, so lenient in terms of the kinds of judges that sit on the bench the federal gov't has no choice.

    The fact that we still have a "faint hope clause" where after 15 years even the most horrific offenders get a parole hearing that re-victimizes families.

    Or on the petty crime end. Car thieves can rack up hundreds of convictions. Its just a revolving door and its becoming a huge problem.

    Thankfully police are setting up trap cars now.

    Quite frankly i'd be happy to put more trust in the judiciary if there was a more open, transparent means of selecting judges who were tough on crime.

  179. Shadow,

    Since you brought up policing, I think better training has to be in order. When you are blowing convictions by doing an illegal strip-search, or tasering people to death, something has gone awry.

    What I don't think they need, is increased powers to randomly pull people over to give them a breathalizer. They have the power to pull over erratic drivers already.

    Police already have all the power, and tools to combat crime in this country IMO. They have to use them better.

    They also appear to be above the law in some cases. This should be clamped down on.

  180. AJR79 a quick note on stats.

    Real crime rates have been more or less stable over the past decade.

    Reported crime rates have showed a decline but that's because of gang intimidation, lack of trust in RCMP, etc not an actual reduction in real crime.

    (Compare victimization rates in Global Social Survey vs StatsCan crime rates).

    The crime rate certainly isn't rising. Although what Glover said is that more Canadians are seeing crime, which is certainly true if you watch the evening news. There is certainly an impression that it is and a demand that our politicians take action.

    Here's the relevent point from the article you linked to:

    "Police reported crime rate is thought to be an under count of actual violence rates. To rectify this, approximately every five years statistics Canada conducts a survey of victimization in Canada. The last survey reported was conducted in 2004 and it found that the violent crime rate in Canada was 106 per 1,000 which is slightly lower than in 1999 when it was 111 per 1,000 "

  181. AJR79 I think the creation of provincial police forces could help.

    The RCMP has completely lost all trust in British Columbia.

    Tasering that Polish traveler to death, the death of an inmate in their custody up north. Lots of little high profile hits they've taken.

    There's been talk about the RCMP becoming our "FBI". I think its a great idea.

  182. CanadianSense said...
    John, Eric

    both of you have a belief in AGW?

    Any thoughts on Greenpeace article?

    CS I believe we are experiencing climate change. I'm uncertain of the cause.

    Every group right and left , every religion has it's extremists. Why would you pick this out for Eric and John to comment on?

    The discussion on here has become inane !

  183. "if there was a more open, transparent means of selecting judges who were tough on crime."

    Firstly the system is fairly open if you will take the time to look Shadow.

    Secondly why should "tough on crime" be part of it??

    Uphold the law, apply it fairly, yes. Each and every case is different so that fairness and flexibility have to be the keywords, not "tough on crime" !

    If you want maximum sentences and every perp in jail you have to accept that your taxes will have to go up to pay for the new jails needed and the larger number of staff needed.

    And this can be billions by the way.

    With crime rates going down as even your info suggests then tightening the law may not have the desired affect. Seems prevention is as much a key as punishment.

  184. Peter I want much tougher sentences for those who commit violent crimes! No parole until the sentence is served for violent crimes.

    On the end of the spectrum I'd legalize pot and several other drugs.

    So my views are not monolithic.



  185. Peter its been repeatedly demonstrated that real crime rates are NOT GOING DOWN. Merely the amount of crimes being reported to the police have decline, which is a bad thing.

    This means there is a problem with the amount of trust people have in the police and/or the amount of safety they feel in reporting crimes.

    Also I think getting tough on crime pays for itself in large measure.

    Sure there are some start up costs but if you look at say, New York City, by getting tough on crime their real estate values increased. Whole neighbourhoods were reclaimed and reborn.

    Its a valuable investment with a very high return.

    Oh and the transparent process for selecting judges ?

    Yeah i'm sure you're one the guys who likes the idea of an unelected senate appointed through a similiar transparent and open process. Lol !

  186. Earl:
    "Peter I want much tougher sentences for those who commit violent crimes! No parole until the sentence is served for violent crimes."

    And nothing I said prevents that. I tend to agree. That said we do have to accept that that will require increased capacity which comes at the cost of increased taxes.

  187. Shadow all you are saying and it is becoming clearer all the time is that all you really care about is money.

    Second do you know how judges are selected?? Really ? The absolute last thing we want here is the kind of elected judge insanity of the USA. Yet that seems to be where you are going.

    Third I disagree with your comments re crime rates increasing.

  188. Peter you can't disagree with cold hard facts.

    Go read the victimization rates in the global social survey StatsCan puts out.

    I never said real crime rates were increasing, I said they are NOT DECREASING. They are stable.

    The rates at which crimes that occur are reported, however, is going down which means there is a growing lack of faith in our justice system or fear of retribution.

    Money ?

    You brought it up. You said taxes would go up by getting tough on crime. I said not particularily it is a valuable investment that pays for itself in the long term.

    As for judges they are selected from applications via a board.

    Harper suggested more police officers and victims rights advocates on the boards instead of defence lawyers and soft on crime criminologist and bleeding heart social workers.

    When he made the suggestion the opposition howled !

    I guess the left likes their soft on crime judges and wants to keep things that way.

  189. Shadow how do you know that more crime is going unreported?

  190. Earl,

    Is GP an extremist group? Did they incite violence in the article? Should we make donations to them illegal and arrest them?

    I have been asking the people who keep trying to guilt us and frame us as deniers to explain the geopolitical forces and the stuff going on around climategate with the IPCC.

    Can you tell me how we get China and other BRIC countries to stop using Fossil fuel?

    Are you aware U.S and China account for over 40% of Co2 emmissions but Canada's is attacked by the opposition in the MSM and the left for wanting everyone to the same deal?

    BTW I don't agree with the government on raising taxes for Carbon or a Cap and Trade.

    Any idea how that is balanced?

  191. CS:

    Actually GP stated they didn't approve of the comments about rape, murder and violence. So were they inciting violence, no absolutely not.

    Yes I am aware that the US and China produce about 40% of the world's GHG. Are you aware that China is the fastest growing emitter of said gases.

    I don't believe we should unilaterally reduce our emissions either in Canada or in the West unless the the developing world is part of the solution. We face enough disadvantages when trying to compete. We ought not to burden ourselves with another one.

    Are you aware that China is nor a free trader but uses currency manipulation and non tariff barriers to prevent competition with its industries?

    You last comment once again left me puzzled and wondering why you can't be coherent on a regular basis:

    " BTW I don't agree with the government on raising taxes for Carbon or a Cap and Trade.

    Any idea how that is balanced?"

    Please clarify.

  192. Peter:

    "And nothing I said prevents that. I tend to agree. That said we do have to accept that that will require increased capacity which comes at the cost of increased taxes."

    Actually if we use financial penalties more extensively for non violent crime and legalize most drugs we should actually cut our jail and prison population.

  193. Earl statscan asks a question on their surveys "have you been a victim of a crime in the past 5 years".

    Considerably more people respond "yes" then the actual rates of crimes reported to police.

    For instance as Shelly Glover said only about 1 out of every 10 victims of a sex crime contacts the police.

    An example of the difference between real crime rates and reported crimes rates would be the following scenario:

    A prostitute who gets raped is the victim of a crime.

    However, its highly unlikely that she'd actually report it to the police.

    So victimization rates in the StatsCan survey, for any number of reasons, are much higher than crime rates in the StatsCan compilation of crimes reported to the police.

  194. Hi Earl,

    I agree with your statments on drugs.

    However, despite evidence showing minimum sentences are an ineffective way to control drug crime, the Harper government wants to introduce minimum sentences, for marijuana possession.

    If we start throwing everybody in jail for marijuana possession, our jails will quickly fill up.

    You can correct me if I am wrong, but I thought crime rates in Canada were going down. That included violent crime.

    IMHO tough on crime is a slogan, when we should be smart on crime.

    Addressing the root causes, and crime prevention programs are also important.

    I guess Shadow will now call me a "Leftie" "Bleeding Heart Liberal"
    "Socialist" etc.

    As I explained before I am not a leftie, I am in the centre, but I believe in solutions over slogans.

    I hope Earl, you find me coherent, I would be unhappy if you did not.

  195. Earl,

    Does every opposition party want us to go first with a carbon tax, cap and trade regime?

    How does the opposition stand up attack on HST, payroll tax, airport tax as being unfair but than push we adopt a Carbon tax as less expensive for the taxpayer?

    We are an export nation, adding costs to production makes our products cheaper or more expensive?

    Have the media, opposition been pointing out in a truthful or balanced fashion the largest, worst offenders, their track records in failing to impose any policy?

    Agreed dollar policy, China has serious problems in many areas. Do the Liberals praise them? Do you hear the NDP calling for scrapping trade with them?

    I am like many Canadians who don't see a benefit in having the opposition chase their tails to score cheap points.

    Where are the alternatives, they have always held the majority of seats, why don't they offer something different than the CPC agenda?

    45 day work year was never introduced in their opposition days for debate, National Daycare as well.
    Instead a stunt to split the CPC on maternal health by revisiting abortion.

  196. Earl:
    "Actually if we use financial penalties more extensively for non violent crime and legalize most drugs we should actually cut our jail and prison population."

    You won't get any argument from me on that approach. Most of our drug laws have been in essence demanded by the USA and it's impossible "War On Drugs" which 20 years later they admit has been a total failure. Plus legalised we can tax them just like tobacco !!

    As 49 says:
    "IMHO tough on crime is a slogan, when we should be smart on crime.

    Addressing the root causes, and crime prevention programs are also important."

    Both parts of this are correct although the first part goes with the first part of the second. Smart on crime and addressing the root causes will do a lot more for a lot less than building more billion dollar jails !

  197. Peter instead of bashing Americans, did Canada sign onto international treates with the UN in the 1960-2000?

    It is easier simply to blame the U.S. but it is simply an excuse.

  198. Peter,

    Drug laws in the US, have been a disaster.

    The "Three strikes and you are out"
    has also been a disaster.

    The Us incarcerates, more people per capita than Canada, and by no stretch of the imagination, could you call them a less violent country.

    Following failed US crime policies, is ridiculous.

    I bet my bottom dollar if Harper gets that coveted majority, he will want to re-introduce the death penalty, and loosen gun laws in Canada.

    His crime policies will cost more money, and do nothing to make society safer, or reduce crime.


    UN CZAR wants insite closed!

    Feel free to continue to blame Americans or Harper just don't let facts like history of treaty violations get in your way.


  200. Got a little sidetracked there...


    I see I'll have to get to Glover and that report sooner rather then later, but want to get your opinion, on more substantive things first.

    In what way are these manditory minimums going to improve crime reporting? What has this government put forward, to improve crime reporting?

    And what support to you have for this statement,

    "The rates at which crimes that occur are reported, however, is going down which means there is a growing lack of faith in our justice system or fear of retribution."

    Is there a statistical basis that more crime is being underreported because of fear of retribution, or perps getting off easy?

    It sounds more like your personal feeling to me, which happens to coincide with your favoured MPs opinion.

    I'm also curious as to what your views are about increased penalties, and mandatory minimums regarding marijuana offenses. You haven't opinined on that yet.

    Do you think that 6 month minimums will achieve great success, or be a good way to spend taxpayer dollars?

    I would also note that in the example you gave of the raped prostitute, there is no reason to think she would report it if she knew the guy would go to jail for a minimum period.

    What may have her more inclined to report it, would be if prostitution were legal, and she weren't so stigmatized and cut off from society. I'd like your thoughts on that too.


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