Monday, April 12, 2010

New Léger Poll: 17-pt BQ Lead

Léger Marketing has a new federal poll out for Quebec, and shows a little movement.The Bloc Québécois is well in front, gaining one point since Léger's March 8-11 poll. They have 38%. The Liberals have dropped four, however, and are at 21%. That is problematic for them.

The New Democrats gain three points and stand at 17%, while the Conservatives are stable at 17% as well.

The Greens drop one to 6%.

The Bloc is doing very well among francophones, with 45% support. The Conservatives are next, with 18%, up four points. Then it is the NDP with 17% (up three), and finally the Liberals at 16% (down five). That is a very worrisome place for the Liberals.

Among non-francophones, the Liberals have 43%, followed by the Conservatives and NDP at 16%. The Conservatives were at 28% among non-francophones in March, which appears to have been a glitch.

In and around Montreal, the Bloc is down four to 32%, followed by the Liberals at 29%. The NDP is up four to 18%, making Thomas Mulcair smile.

In and around Quebec City, the Bloc is ahead with 34%, followed by the Conservatives at 27%. It is still their base of support. The Liberals have dropped five points to 17% in the capital.

In the rest of Quebec, the Bloc dominates with 44% (up five). The Conservatives followed with 21%, while the Liberals are down six to 14%.

For some reason, the Liberals have lost a good chunk of support outside of Montreal. Nothing has really happened that would explain it, however, so it could be a statistical anomaly.

The Bloc would win 52 seats with this poll, while the Liberals would take 14 and the Conservatives would keep 7. The NDP would win 2.

Nothing much new here but some unhappy numbers for the Liberals and continuing trouble for the Conservatives. Things are fine, however, for the Bloc and NDP.

52 comments:

  1. I wonder if its just a disillusionment with the two main federalist parties that is causing the low Liberal and the low Conservative numbers. I just fail to see where either party has gone wrong in recent months in regards to Quebec that would push support back to the Bloc and the NDP.

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  2. Hey DL,

    Looks like you guys are going to hang on to Outremont, and steal Gatineau away frim the BLOC.

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  3. Plus the Liberals could be experiencing the public disenchantment with the Charest Govt?

    But I sort of tend to go with Volkov on this.

    Unhappy with both main Federal parties.

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  4. Outremont is still up for grabs no matter how high the NDP vote goes. With two heavyweights like Cauchon and Mulcair, either one could go to Ottawa even if either of their parties collapse!

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  5. I think that there is an extra factor that may be at work here that could explain the latest Liberal flop in Quebec. The low Tory numbers require no explanation - Harper has never really recovered from his Quebec-baiting incendiary rhetoric at the time of the coalition last year - and he has probably poisoned the Tory brand in Quebec more than anyone since Sir John A. MacDonald ordered the hanging of Louis Riel. The recent publicity about Harper adding all those extra MPs in order to water down Quebec's weight in Parliament is not helping the Tories in Quebec either.

    As for the Liberals - I don't think its a total coincidence that federal Liberal support is taking a dive at a time when the provincial Liberals are now at 77% disapproval ratings! The last time federal Liberal numbers were this low in Quebec was in 2006-2007 when Charest was also extremely unpopular. I realize that in Quebec more than anywhere else in Canada people draw a sharp distinction between federal and provincial politics - but when you have a provincial government that bears the Liberal name flirting with Mulroneyesque levels of unpopularity - it can't exactly be good for the Liberal brand at the federal level either. It just creates a bas smell around anything that calls itself "Liberal". Especially after Ignatieff went out of his way to express support for all the most unpopular things in Charest's budget.

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  6. DL correct me if i'm wrong.

    Did the surprise Tory win in the Quebec byelection happen BEFORE or AFTER the Tory brand was "poisoned" by coalition bashing ?

    You get my point.

    Organization and money matters, even in supposed Tory wastelands.

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  7. Shadow,

    No, but it was during a time when their federalist opposition was weak and practically useless. I mean, if the only time the Conservatives can really win in Quebec is when the Liberals are incapacitated, that isn't too great of a brand.

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  8. In Quebec, there is a counter-cyclical tendency (compared to the rest of Canada) for governing parties to gain ground in byelections - its largely a holdover from the old Duplessis days when if you elected an opposition MP your roads never got paved. We saw the Tories win Roberval by more than a 2-1 margin and almost win Ste. Hyacinthe in the 2007 byelections. Then just a year later they got crushed in Ste. Hyacinthe by 15,000 votes and they only retained Roberval by a couple of hundred votes. In the next election, I fully expect the BQ to win back MIKR and probably Roberval and few others as well. Maxime Bernier may end up as the only Tory left in Quebec.

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  9. DL:

    "The recent publicity about Harper adding all those extra MPs in order to water down Quebec's weight in Parliament is not helping the Tories in Quebec either."

    Harper isn't adding the seats to dilute Quebec's influence!!!! I'll grant you that some in Quebec may portray it in that manner but they're playing politics and you know that. The extra seats are being added to reflect growing population in the ROC and to give some credence to representation by population. My vote in ON or BC or AB shouldn't be worth less than a vote in Quebec. I'd like to see a complete readjustment of the seat allocation which would shift seats from Eastern Canada to the growing parts of Canada, so that everyone's vote across is roughly equal. The territories I'd leave alone because of the huge geographical size of those ridings.

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  10. It is interesting that despite Harper's so called "Quebec Bashing" that the CPC remains is the second choice to the Bloc among French Canadians in Quebec. Quebec was initially an Iggy stronghold. One can't help but wonder what has happened.

    I'm beginning to think that the LPC ought to have gone with Dominic LeBlanc from NB as their leader and rebuilt from the grassroots rather that looking to IGGY for a fast return to power. I don't think Bob Rae is the answer either.

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  11. Hey Volkov,

    Love your new logo!!!!

    I think the EAP money being doled out in such a hap hazard fashion, has the capacity, to dwarf the sponsorship scandal.

    Sheila Fraser is now investigating with a report due out in fall.

    I can't fling accusations around, but from what I have read there have been some funny going's on in the Guergis riding, and Potato Pete's in NS, with respect to EAP funds.

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  12. Liberals out there any comment on my assessment of the Liberal Leadership and where I'd go were I a Liberal?

    TIA.

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  13. Volkov your new logo is quite innovative. The guy telling people to run for their lives looks a lot like Paul Martin. That's exactly how he campaigned against the CPC! Good stuff mate.

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  14. Hi Earl,

    I'm Fine with Ignatieff.

    Let him have his shot.

    The party has to put on a united and disciplined front.

    If you don't mind now a little partisan shot.

    Stephen Harper, and Helena Guergis are the best thing going for Liberals.

    Thanks for the gift.

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  15. Volk0v:
    "No, but it was during a time when their federalist opposition was weak and practically useless."

    As opposed to the current dynamos in charge of the liberal party? They can't even organize a whipped vote on their own motion.

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  16. Earl,

    To point out, the CPC, LPC and NDP are all statistically tied for "second place" among francophones in Quebec. On paper the Liberals might be fourth, but the reality is a lot fuzzier. I wouldn't say the Conservatives aren't second (or first, at least, among federalist parties), but 18% isn't a rousing amount of support either.

    Which brings me to your leadership comments. It isn't so much Iggy that's an issue with Quebec, though he is part of it. Its just that the Liberals, like the CPC, are punching under their weight. They're damaged brands in Quebec, at least outside of Montreal. The Bloc survives because francophone Quebecois aren't too ambivalent to the two main parties, both federalist, both who've done stupid things, and both who've taken Quebec for granted at times. I'd be pretty annoyed to, in all honesty. So whether LeBlanc was Liberal Leader or not wouldn't make much of a difference I think. The Liberals would be frowned upon half the time, just as the Conservatives are, regardless of who is leader. I think both Conservatives and Liberals need to realize that. It's our parties reputations that drives voters into the arms of the Bloc.


    And thank you for the comments on my logo. It is Paul Martin, and obviously its a play off the negativity Martin used towards Harper, and of course the Ontario PC "evil reptillian kitten eater from another planet" gaffe.

    However, I think its also a reflection of Harper. Let's face it - a lot of people thought, and still do think, he's "scary," or at the very least semi-tolerable, but constantly pushing his boundaries. So even though the alarmist views of Martin back in '06 were pretty pathetic, they did have somewhat of a basis in the minds of Canadians, because after all, perception is reality.

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  17. 49

    Watched about half of Derek Lee's presentation to the Speaker along with all of Jack Harris. They very clearly refuted the entire Govt argument put forward by Justice and others.

    I have to feel the Speaker will in fact rule the Govt is in contempt.

    Then I figure the excrement hits the air mover !!

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  18. 49

    Please contact me via my Profile.

    Thanks

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  19. Peter you mean to say you think the speaker will rule that there is a prima facie breach of privilege.

    I've said all along that I indeed think he will.

    When the concurant motion is voted on, however, the house will be in support of the gov't because of lazy liberals staying home to avoid an election.

    Result ?

    The gov't wins and a new precedent is set. Derek Lee's legal arguements get thrown out the window and that book he wrote becomes worthless.

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  20. Hi John: Thank you for thoughtful and reasoned response last evening.

    Some comments. Nuclear waste does have a verifiable cost that could be built into the cost, if it isn't now.

    Carbon doesn't have a cost because at least some us are unsure that carbon is causing climate change. Even if man is contributing to climate change is it entirely man's fault? The question then is how much does carbon really cost is if anything at all.

    Duplicating means of generation leaves a huge carbon footprint. It take an awful lot of energy to build a standby gas power plant. So not only will the gas power plant use carbon when in use it will require carbon to build it, maintain it and to keep it ready on standby.

    I can see you point about solar if indeed we can't build capacity that would supply us at cheaper rates.

    I agree with the Hydro solution!!!!!

    How about retrofitting cars and trucks to burn natural gas? It produces much less carbon the gasoline and is cheaper. Also it would create a lot more jobs for each dollar spent than will wind and solar power and produce much greater carbon savings than wind and solar combined.

    Finally and most importantly China and the US produce 40% of the world's green house gases. The US is our largest trading partner. We are in a free trade arrangement with the US. If we increase our costs then we won't be able to compete with our trading partners. Until the large producers of carbon deal with the problem, how can we and maintain our standard of living? We can't!


    Your comments welcome,

    Thanks,

    Earl.

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  21. 49:

    "Stephen Harper, and Helena Guergis are the best thing going for Liberals."

    I'd agree about Helena. I believe you underestimate Harper at your peril. You'll notice that I don't predict that IGGY will fail, because he may yet find his way into Canadians minds as a better alternative. I'm just saying that he has yet to do so.

    Good fortune,

    Earl

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  22. Shadow let's just agree to disagree on this.

    I think the House will support a motion of censure.

    Let's see where the chips fall ?

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  23. Incredible revelations are coming out in Quebec about how totally corrupt the provincial Liberals are. This makes the Quebec Liberals look like they are cut from the same cloth as those thieves in the Quebec branch of the federal Liberal party!

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  24. Earl I think events over the last few months have completely destroyed any chance of Charest ever becoming leader of the CPC.

    I know you once defended the notion, do you still ?

    http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20100412/charest_allegations_100412/20100412?hub=QPeriod


    With Charest tanking I wonder if Bernier might consider jumping into provincial politics as leader of a right wing party.

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  25. I think that the weak Liberal numbers are related to the anger over the Charest budget. I know Ignatieff and his party obviously have nothing to do with that, but many people don't understand how our federal system works and there is often a transference of anger whenever things like these happen.

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  26. Shadow Chatrest's asccent to pm is certainly not looking good, agreed, however as they say never say never in never in politics. I hope Bernier stays where he is. The last thing the CPC needs is to lose their most popular member in Quebec. I don't see much future for a RW alternative in Quebec my self.

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  27. Earl: Carbon doesn't have a cost because at least some us are unsure that carbon is causing climate change. Even if man is contributing to climate change is it entirely man's fault?

    If a house starts burning, the fire department doesn't ask how much is arson and how much is electrical malfunction. AGW is real, but out of respect to Éric I won't debate the details here. The go-to place for deep technical answers is Real Climate.

    Duplicating means of generation leaves a huge carbon footprint. It take an awful lot of energy to build a standby gas power plant.

    Absolutely true. I didn't want to write a book-length comment so I limited my previous answer. Another and better solution to load balancing is efficient long-distance power transmission, possibly using HVDC.

    The no-brainer solution is to use less energy of all types. There's a lot of low-hanging fruit to be harvested.

    How about retrofitting cars and trucks to burn natural gas?

    T. Boone Pickens loves you. I'm guessing this will become a significant part of the energy mix, but I'm far from sure.

    Finally and most importantly China and the US produce 40% of the world's green house gases. The US is our largest trading partner. We are in a free trade arrangement with the US.

    And if we don't properly price carbon, they'll do it for us and pocket the duties. Tax or cap-and-trade, action is coming.

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  28. John thanks for your very knowledgeable respnse. I would convert our fleet of vehicles in NA to NG in a Moose Jaw Minute. No wind power like Boone wants though especially after reading what you and Peter had to say about it.

    We agree about the low hanging fruit. Better to buy people new appliances than spend the equivilent amount on new nuclear.

    Thanks again,

    Earl

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  29. if you al want a really good scare watch this !

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cL9Wu2kWwSY

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  30. John:
    Tax or cap-and-trade, action is coming.

    Europe went the cap & trade route and now is trying to switch to a tax strategy. What happened was speculators and manipulators saw the ability to generate real profits out of the C&P without doing anything about pollution. In other words shuffle the paper around but do nothing for the problem. I think the straight tax approach if you are really serious about greenhouse gases.

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  31. Earl: No wind power like Boone wants though especially after reading what you and Peter had to say about it.

    There appears to be a misconception here. I'm strongly in favour of wind power. It has to be the right size (backyard makes no sense on grid due to basic physics) and in the right place (i.e., where the wind blows) with the right distribution framework for managing variability.

    The market is a good mechanism to work out most of those tradeoffs. If the true costs of all power sources are visible and paid up front, producers and consumers can make the right decisions on what to sell and buy--or perhaps, avoid buying.

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  32. "The last thing the CPC needs is to lose their most popular member in Quebec."

    If Bernier could be described as "the most popular Tory member in Quebec" it says something about how UNpopular the rest of their Quebec caucus is!

    It factually true that Bernier wins his own seat by the widest margin of any Tory in Quebec - but I think that is less about him than about the fact that Beauce has a long tradition as just about the most small "c" conservative place in Quebec. Otherwise, Bernier is considered an object of ridicule. He and Guergis actually have a lot in common - both are considered to have very low levels of intelligence and to be totally unqualified for cabinet. Both were given high profile positions solely because they are "pretty" and do a good job of being bobble-head props behind Harper when he speaks in Parliament and both have shown appallingly poor judgment in choosing their spouse/mistress and both have had significant others whose names can be said in the same sentence as "biker gang".

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  33. Eric.

    How different are the Federal and Charest's provincial Liberals?

    Do 80% of the provincial Liberal "machine" work for the Federal Liberals? and 20% for the CPC? or is it some different percentage?

    As the Federal Liberal support seems concentrated on the Island of Montreal I would guess the correlation between provincial Liberals and and Federal Liberals would be very high.

    If my hypothesis is correct two things would make sense:

    1) the Liberal party of Quebec is corrupt to the core and is the same or worse than the Federal Adscamers. They would have been given much more leeway in breaking all the rules as the sole defenders of Canadian federalism.

    2) They deserve to be punished severely at the polls. They just never clean up after adscam.


    It is kind of interesting how much more tolerance Quebec has for incompetent government. Why in the world there is not a new federal friendly party with a centralist platform that could take over from the Quebec Liberals? Roses Sauvage would be a great name.

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  34. Bernier got lambasted.... mainly by the the media and Civil service (Colvin and the ilk) and the coaltion parties for landing in Afganistan and say the obvious... the govenor, Karzai's relative was terribly corrupt and Canada should not be putting up with him.

    The country now is screaming for transparency and clarity, but when Bernier spoke clearly it was the beginning of the end for him.

    Had we listened to Bernier and set more stringent conditions for Canadian/NATO troops being in A'stan it would be better there now or we would be out.

    Bernier deserves to be back in the inner circle.

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  35. --- How different are the Federal and Charest's provincial Liberals?

    Very. While the two use the same name, they are completely unaffiliated.

    --- Do 80% of the provincial Liberal "machine" work for the Federal Liberals? and 20% for the CPC? or is it some different percentage?

    I don't know, it would likely depend on the ridings. For example, the PLQ's minions helped the CPC get elected in Montmagny, but I'm sure they help get Marcel Proulx or Stéphane Dion get elected in their ridings.

    They're two different animals, though, and often at odds with each other. And remember that Charest's history is with the Progressive Conservatives, not the Liberals. I'm sure some of the animosity still lies within him.

    --- As the Federal Liberal support seems concentrated on the Island of Montreal I would guess the correlation between provincial Liberals and and Federal Liberals would be very high.

    I'm not sure if the West Island federal and provincial Liberals need any help in getting elected. I wouldn't be surprised if they have few volunteers in those areas.

    When it comes to fund-raising, I think the two would be very far apart. Quebec federalists with money support the PLQ at the provincial level, but the likely-government at the federal level.

    Think of the Desmarais. They've always supported the provincial Liberals, but recently they've been giving support to the federal Conservatives.

    Only the PQ and BQ have completely overlapping networks.

    --- the Liberal party of Quebec is corrupt to the core and is the same or worse than the Federal Adscamers. They would have been given much more leeway in breaking all the rules as the sole defenders of Canadian federalism.

    We should be wary of Mr. Bellemare, his allegations have yet to be proven. Though it wouldn't surprise me. "The defenders of Canadian federalism" tend to break the rules.

    --- 2) They deserve to be punished severely at the polls. They just never clean up after adscam.

    The two parties are too different to throw into the same basket. The PLQ needs to be punished severely, and likely will be, but the LPC has already gone through that thresher. They can't really do worse than how they've done in 2006 and 2008 in Quebec. On the West Island, you vote Liberal and that's that. They can't be reduced any further.

    --- It is kind of interesting how much more tolerance Quebec has for incompetent government.

    I wouldn't say that. The alternatives just haven't been there, and memories are short. There were protests against Charest's government after 2003, and there have been more protests in the wake of the recent budget. But the PQ hasn't been able to take advantage of that, and a lot of the blame goes to André Boisclair's disastrous tenure as leader (though I liked him).

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  36. "The defenders of Canadian federalism" tend to break the rules.


    Isn't that the kind of sweeping statement you reject when people are making it about liberals/lefties ?

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  37. My quotation marks denote it wasn't sweeping. I have the PLQ and the NON campaign in mind.

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  38. Eric even so the vast majority of card carrying members or supporters, the "defenders of federalism", were not involved in those decisions and had no knowledge of them.

    Saying "The PLQ and LPC have a history of these types of scandals" would make it clear you are talking about the representatives of the parties themselves and not their membership.

    It would also make it clear you're not talking about non-Liberal federalists.

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  39. Thanks for your answers to my questions.

    It still seems that there is a higher level of corruption and far less punishment in Quebec than there is in the ROC. When Devine gets caught in Sask politicians go to jail and the party is disbanded. The NDP were unopposed for years. Stelmach is not crooked... just incompetent and the Wild Rose springs up to get him in line or out of the way. Mulroney shenanigans lead directly to the Reform party.

    In Quebec the bar is set very very high as to what is forgiven. No grassroots options spring up. If there were to be a separatist party in the west it would likely split off into a socialist separatist party and a capitalist separatist party.

    I did not realize that Desmaris is supporting the CPC federally. It makes sense. I guess that he is just covering his bets as he feels the Liberals won't be in a position to do him any favours for a while. He is not used to not being in the PMs inner circle with Mulroney, Chretien and Martin and PM in waiting Rae.

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  40. Shadow Your responses seem very defensive. Eric provided a realtively clear answer and skated a bit around the Federal Liberals getting away with grand larcency and not being turfed by the majority of honest card carrying Liberals due to expediency.

    Have the card carrying Quebec liberals no responsibility and duty to purge the party from the corrupt leadership? And yet there has been no changes .... basically the Quebec Liberals have 2 MPs (Trudeau and Garneau) that did not at best sit on their hands and accepted adscam funding and got a moral pass from the party membership.

    I really hope and believe that if Harper were to do something half as corrupt as adscam that he would be tossed right out of the party.

    There is no way or example of the Liberals doing the same as Harper has done with Guergis.

    The closest was Paul Martin reaclling ambassador Gagliano.

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  41. Peter: Europe went the cap & trade route and now is trying to switch to a tax strategy... I think the straight tax approach if you are really serious about greenhouse gases.

    Yes. Absolutely. Please tell Michael Ignatieff.

    A revenue-neutral carbon tax shift has been a key part of the Green Party's Vision Green all along. Dion muddied revenue neutrality and then Harper slagged him on it for tactical political purposes, but the basic concept is sound. A simple tax shift sends a clear signal to consumers. Cap-and-trade is an opportunity for financial whiz kids to leech exorbitant profits until the next meltdown, while giving special interests loopholes that you can drive a tar sands excavator through.

    Cap-and-trade is better than doing absolutely nothing. Just.

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  42. 49

    Now the Ethics Commissioner says she won't investigate Guergis, that's after the Conflict of Interest guy said the same thing yesterday.

    That means only one thing, whatever the allegations are they are criminal

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  43. Imagine that - Helena Guergis - the heart and soul of the Conservative Party - charged with a crime. How will the Tories recover from this decapitation? Guergis totally personified the Tory party to most Canadians. She was clearly the de facto successor to Harper. With her gone - how will the Tory rank and file react? What will they have to believe in with their folk hero gone. With no Helena Guergis - can the Conservative Party survive?

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  44. 49

    Colvin kicked the shit out of the Tories today.

    http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2010/04/13/mpcc-hearings-colvin.html

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  45. Peter we arleady knew the allegations were criminal, that's the only kind the RCMP investigates. Harper wouldn't have called them unless he believed laws may have been broken.

    These commissioners cannot legally investigate anything until the RCMP is done their work. So they're putting everything on hold until the RCMP says what its going to do.


    DL nice comedy routine.

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  46. All

    New discussion board

    http://forums.delphiforums.com/PolitCan/messages/?msg=1.1

    ReplyDelete
  47. Here's what Jaffer's pal has to say:

    http://forums.delphiforums.com/PolitCan/start

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  48. John:
    Yes. Absolutely. Please tell Michael Ignatieff.

    The problem is that the USA simply refuses to even consider a Carbon Tax. Hence we are stuck with whatever they do and we're thus stuck with C & T !!

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  49. Here's the scoop on Jaffer's plea:

    http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2010/04/13/rahim-jaffer-plea-mansbridge.html

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  50. Shadow:

    New Federalist party in Quebec:

    http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Liberals+replaced/2903237/story.html

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  51. A new federalist party in Quebec would be a great help to the Parti Québécois.

    ReplyDelete

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