Thursday, April 8, 2010

New Ekos Poll: 6.3-pt Conservative Lead

EKOS's weekly poll is out, and my apologies for the late post. As the Easter Weekend interrupted EKOS's polling, the sample size is much smaller than usual.Now, before you look at these numbers and say "huge MOE!", remember that most other pollsters survey about 1,000 people. Only EKOS, and recently Harris-Decima, go for 2,000+ people. So, though these numbers definitely look wonky, they shouldn't be any more wonky than results we see from Angus-Reid, Ipsos-Reid, or Nanos.

However, with such odd results from a pollster that is always consistent, one must come to the conclusion that EKOS's polling is consistent because of the sample size and not their method. For them to show such weird numbers in British Columbia and the Prairies leads me to believe that their method is actually a little worse than other pollsters. What they bring to the table is large sample sizes, which can overcome most methodological deficiencies.

Anyway, to the poll.

The Conservatives are up 1.4 points to 33.6%, a good result for them. The Liberals are up 0.3 points to 27.3%, while the New Democrats are down 0.1 points to 15.9%. The Greens are down one to 11.7%, and "Other" is down 1.3 points to 1.8%.

In Ontario, the Conservatives are up five points to 39.5%, while the Liberals are down one to 31.8%. This is a huge spread, and very worrisome. But then again, Harris-Decima had things the other way around yesterday. The NDP is up one to 16%.

In Quebec, the Bloc Québécois is up three to 39.4% and the Liberals are up two to 23.6%. The Conservatives are steady at 17% and the NDP is down two to 9.6%. Good results for the Bloc, bad for everyone else.

In British Columbia, well, the NDP is up five to 29.5% and move into first. Oddly enough, the Conservatives are unchanged at 28.8%. The Liberals drop 10 to 19.6%, and the Greens are up five to 18.2%.

In the smaller regions, the Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada with 38.1% (up five), while the Conservatives are up eight to 36.1% and the NDP is down five to 20.3%. In Alberta, things are relatively unchanged with the Tories at 55.7%, but in the Prairies we get a throw-away result. The Liberals gain 14 points and are at 35.2%, while the Conservatives drop 16 points to 32.8%. The NDP is up five to 18.6%. What is going on on the plains?!?

The Conservatives win 59 seats in the West, 57 in Ontario (can you imagine the Conservative Ontario caucus being as large as the Western caucus?), 7 in Quebec, and 10 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 133.

The Liberals win 18 in the West (seven of them in the miracle Prairies), 36 in Ontario, 15 in Quebec, and 20 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 89.

The Bloc wins 53 seats in Quebec.

The NDP wins 17 seats in the West, 13 in Ontario, and 2 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 32.

The Greens win 1 seat in the West (British Columbia).

At the very least, it's fun to see something different in an EKOS poll.