Tuesday, April 6, 2010

Not Much Change in Manitoba

This Probe Research poll on the federal voting intentions of Manitobans shows not much change, though the Liberals are doing better in the province. With 47%, the Conservatives are well ahead of the Liberals at 23% and the New Democrats at 21%. The Greens are at 8%.

When compared with the 2008 election, we see the Conservatives have dropped two points, the Liberals have gained four, the NDP has dropped three, and the Greens have gained one. With a MOE of 3.1, I'm not sure if we can read anything into these numbers. But it seems that while the Tories are stable, the Liberals are making gains at the expense of the NDP.

In Winnipeg, where eight of the 14 Manitoba ridings are located, the Conservatives lead with 41%, down two points from the 2008 election. The Liberals are up three to 26%, while the NDP is down four to 27%. The Greens are up three to 9%.

While this isn't much of a difference, a change like this could cause Elmwood-Transcona and Saint Boniface to be at play. If the changes in support were uniform, it would put the NDP and Conservatives neck-and-neck with 39% in Elmwood-Transcona, endangering NDP MP Jim Maloway.

In Saint Boniface, Conservative MP Shelly Glover would see her support drop to 44% while the Liberals would be up to 40%.

Aside from that, no other riding appears to be at play in Winnipeg.

Outside of the provincial capital, the Conservatives dominate with 58%, which seems to be about where they were in the 2008 election. The Liberals and NDP are tied at 17%, which seems also to be around 2008 levels though the Liberals look like they've gain a couple of points.

61 comments:

  1. I have to wonder whether any provincial shifts are in play here.

    Manitoba isn't known to really share provincial and federal votes, but it does happen sometimes. And if the federal NDP are down, that can't really be good for Selinger's NDP provincially.

    The Liberals going up might benefit the provincial Liberals, but I doubt it. Jon Gerrard is a great guy, but his party isn't going anywhere fast.

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  2. Provincial and federal politics in Manitoba are two different things.

    A lot of liberal voters provincially vote NDP, because as Volkov noted the party provincially is nowhere.

    On the federal level, they return home to the federal party.

    The exception being 08, where a lot of libs stayed home to protest Dion, and the green shift.

    Elmwood, will not go CPC. That is bedrock NDP territory and will remain so. Malloway is safe.

    If the NDP voters in Saint Boniface decide to switch their votes over to the Liberals in order to stop the tories, Glover is done like dinner.

    Saint Boniface, is a traditional Liberal seat, and I suspect a lot of Liberal voters who stayed home in 08, to come out next election to support Raymond Simard (especially the Francophones who traditionally vote Liberal, in old Saint Boniface)

    Winnipeg South, could also be in play, as Rod Bruinooge, has not impressed. It was also a Liberal seat for many years, held by Reg Alcock. A great Liberal candidate is running here, Terry Duguid, good name recognition, and reputation.

    Again it depends if the NDP sees the futility of voting NDP, in Winnipeg South, where they have no chance, and decide to vote Lib in order to stop the tories.

    Churchill, could also be in play, but it is very volatile, and hard to call, on how it could go.

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  3. I suspect that Saint Boniface will be one of the best horse races in the next election.

    Glover has an advantage, but she isn't invulnerable. Simard wouldn't come back if she was. From what I know of him, he's a great campaigner and knows how to fundraise. If anyone can take it back, it'll be him.

    The issue is, of course, that there can't just be Liberal voters coming out of the woodwork again. There needs to be an actual swing. According to Pundit's Guide, Glover was able to get an 11-point swing, which came at the expense of the Liberals, but also of the NDP, who dropped from 22% in 2006 to 13%, with a candidate whom I've known online and is pretty much a douche.

    But, I digress. After non-voters from 2008 come back, Simard still needs probably a 5-point swing to win. That's not too steep, but its steep enough in a competitive race. It'll definitely be interesting to see what happens. I bet everything on Glover going negative.

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  4. Hey Volkov isn't it more likely the other way around ?

    That is to say Selinger's unpopularity at the provincial level could be showing up in the sample as lower federal NDP support.

    Then again everything is MOE and things look pretty frozen.

    I agree that Jim Maloway is probably safe. Its an NDP seat and he only did relatively poorly because the incumbent NDP MP had retired and he was a rookie running for the first time.

    Seems like people usually consolidate support on their second run.

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  5. Shadow,

    Well, it's possible, but Selinger's numbers aren't too bad. There was one poll showing him behind, another showing him ahead. It's kind of disjointed, but from my own studies, you rarely see provincial/federal movement like that in Manitoba. If Selinger starts a marked decline, and the federal NDP do as well, then we'll see.

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  6. Glover has to be the odds on favourite.

    If this was a typical '08 race CPC votes would be stable and Liberals would have stayed home.

    There was a 2% drop in turnout and if they had all been Liberals it would have allowed a narrow CPC win with their '06 raw vote of 14,893.

    Except Glover actually INCREASED the CPC raw vote which was a rare feat in '08 to 19,440.

    There's something about Shelly !

    So it comes down to the actual campaign, Shelly vs Raymond.

    Considering she's already beat him once ...

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  7. Volkov I was talking more in terms of the poll being somewhat tainted then people actually shifting their support.

    Isn't Selinger's personal approval way way down ? The provincial NDP numbers are a down a little too, PC was ahead for the first time in a long time in that recent polls.

    Could explain the small drop recorded in NDP support, some people getting their provincial/federal politics confused.

    Then again everything is MOE so no explanation is nessecary either.

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  8. Actually Malloway wasn't really a rookie. He was to federal politics, but he served in the Manitoba legislature for years.

    The NDP has a GREAT gotv, in that part of town. The day Elmwood, Transcona falls, will be the day pigs fly.

    As for Saint Boniface, as Volkov noted the NDP candidate last go round was a goof.

    A lot of NDP voters switched over to Glover, as she had been campaigning there for two years.

    The Liberals had quite a few problems that campaign, and it weighed down Simard.

    The question now is how much Liberal vote now returns home to Simard, and how much NDP vote deserts Glover.

    As for Selinger, yes he is non charismatic and has a few problems, but Hugh Mcfadyen the PC leader, isn't doing anything to impress people here.

    We will see how it all plays out, the next provincial election is slated for october, 2011

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  9. Interesting that the Probe Research numbers for Manitoba virtually morror Eric's popular vote projection for he prairies.

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  10. 49 steps its getting to the point that a lot of things have to go very, very right for Simard and a lot of unlikely assumptions need to be true.

    * 2000 voters who stayed home last election must have been ALL Liberals and ALL must return.

    LPC '08 + 2009

    * NDP MUST get all their '06 votes back and NONE of them would have had to go the Liberals or stayed home.

    CPC '08 - ((NDP '06 - NDP '08) - (Green '08 - Green '06))

    Apply those changes and you get:

    LPC 16 737 votes
    CPC 16 095 votes

    That's a pretty narrow victory for the LPC, so neck and neck.

    Therefore, even if all the things you and Volkov are suggesting are absolutely true its still a toss up, not Glover being "done like dinner".

    Go back and look at those two assumptions. Are they 100% true ?

    Unlikely.

    Some people who stayed home were probably from other parties and some of the NDP vote went Liberal too. Nor will all Liberals returns. Nor will NDP get all their votes back.

    So it comes down to the campaign. Glover is no longer a rookie and she's already beaten Simard once.

    Shelly Glover = favourite to win it/

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  11. I don't see much connection between these results and the provincial scene in Manitoba. If you look back at the the quarterly polls by Probe in Manitoba, the federal NDP was lower a year ago than it is now when Gary Doer was still premier and at the height of his popularity!

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  12. DL any thoughts on possible seat changes next election ?

    At first glance it looks like there will be no changes.

    Then again every election somebody seems to catch fire and pull a surprise upset.

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  13. My impression is that the only seats in Manitoba that are in play to any extent are St. Boniface and Winnipeg South - both of which could go back to the Liberal fold if the Liberals have a bit of a "dead cat bounce" from 2008 and return to 2006 levels - which is not outside the realm of possibility. As has been said, Elmwood-Transcona might look possibly in play for the Tories, but realistically 2008 was probably their best chance to ever win that one and next time they will be playing defence and the NDP will be more consolidated there. On paper you might think that if this poll was right and the NDP lost some ground to the Liberals - Churchill would be in play - but the reality is it went NDP by a pretty big margin and Nicky Ashton is pretty well ensconced. Province-wide polls tell you next to nothing about a riding like that which is mostly Aboriginal and difficult to poll.

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  14. Shadow,

    To point out, I said Glover had the advantage, because Simard needs about a 5-point swing to win it. Don't put words in my mouth, mate.

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  15. DL or anyone has there been any word on whether Judy Wasylycia-Leis is considering a run for mayor this fall ??

    It could set up a fun by-election.

    NDP win to be sure but CPC would throw money and resources at it to narrow the gap considerably. Liberals wil likely fail key test to discover the existence of dead cat bounce.

    Such a result would bolster Glover.

    I notice there is no CPC candidate listed to take on Jim Malloway.

    Could either mean its a lost cause and nobody cares or that they are holding it for a big dog.

    I also think CPC will target Winnipeg South Centre. Anita Nevilla won by a little over 2000 votes but 20,402 people didn't vote. A GOTV effort for new voters could put it in play if the CPC candiate pre-works the riding for several years like Glover did.

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  16. Volkov I never put words in your mouth (do you see me quoting you anywhere ??) or said you didn't say Glover was the favourite.

    In fact I don't think I even addressed you about the topic at all "mate". (Do you have a roo on your passport or are you just picking up Aussie words ? Sorta like how my friends get back from a visit and say "uni" instead of university).

    As far as I can tell this is the only time you came into things:

    "Therefore, even if all the things you and Volkov are suggesting are absolutely true its still a toss up, not Glover being "done like dinner"."

    You did suggest factors that could help Simard. (True, no words in your mouth).

    Next part of the sentence involves me saying 49 steps was wrong to say Glover is "done like dinner" and this is still a toss up. (Also true, no words in your mouth, not address to you).


    Ok ?

    Cool your jets.

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  17. Shadow,

    Judy W, is mulling over a run for mayor. It is a very uphill climb for her.

    Sam Katz is fairly popular, in fatc they had a poll out last week with a hypothetical matchup between Katz, and Judy W.

    Katz polled 52% to Judy W 33%

    If she does make the leap, her federal seat is 100% safe for the NDP, whoever they nominate. It is orange dog country.

    I wouldn't be so hasty about Neville, true her margins have been decreasing, but she always pulls it off.

    South Centre is a very traditional liberal seat, going back to Lloyd Axworthy. My money is on Neville.

    There was a bit of a backlash against the CPC, in South Centre over the ten percenters. There is a significant Jewish population who were offended by the 10 perecenters, as Neville herself is Jewish.

    As for Glover, she has been garnering a lot of headlines, lately. I am in a wait and see mode about that seat.

    Bruinooge could fall, as he has had some negative press over his socially conservative leanings, which do not play well in Winnipeg South.

    Another favourite of yours Candace Hoeppner (You will dig Manitoba women) she is 100% safe.

    Joy Smith, who I believe you mentioned before, is also safe.
    She has increased her margin every election, and is personally popular in Kildonan-St Paul.

    She also has been garnering positive press over her human trafficking bill.

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  18. Well this should shake things up ?

    We just went above parity with the US $

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  19. Shadow,

    WSC isn't going Conservative any time soon. Neville is popular there, and the riding has been Liberal since time immemorial. It's Lloyd Axworthy's old seat.

    WNC similarly isn't going anything other than NDP in our lifetimes. If a by-election did ensure, I'd wager on the Liberals moving back a bit, but nothing huge. Same with Conservatives.

    Anyways, I should have said that you shouldn't lump me with 49's words, which you seemed to do. I don't appreciate being misrepresented.

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  20. To point out, in Manitoba, the only ridings even hinting at changing hands ever, and I mean ever, are Elmwood-Transcona, Saint Boniface, Winnipeg South, Churchill, and WSC. Charleswood and Winnipeg Centre could, one day, switch back to the good guys, but not anytime soon. Not in this political climate.

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  21. Volkov, 49 steps I wouldn't consider any seat in Manitoba to be a true toss up.

    Incumbents have the advantage in each riding.

    But crazy stuff can happen and there always seems to be an upset somewhere.

    I'll be watching Glover, Neville, Bruinooge, Maloway, and Ashton on election day.

    Thanks for the tips !

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  22. Next time: Volkov and 49 Steps' views on Saskatchewan seats up for grabs.

    Thank you and good night. Remember to spay and neuter your pets!

    *cheesy play off music*

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  23. Saskatchewan ?

    No changes and Goodale survives with his lowest numbers to date.

    Alberta will be Tory sweep.

    See, two provinces real quick and easy !

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  24. Tsk tsk Shadow, you know not the art of psephology.

    In Saskatchewan, there are three seats up for grabs. Palliser (Ray Boughen), Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar (Kelly Block), and Denesthe-Churchill River (I've forgotten whose there).

    The first two are NDP targets. Palliser has the outside chance of going Liberal due to a strong base there. SRB is one of the closest battles for the NDP in Sask. over several elections. DSR is a Liberal target, due to its history as a swing riding, and its backbench member.

    In Alberta, Edmonton Centre (obvious) and Edmonton East (less obvious) and Edmonton-Sherwood Park (only if the independent candidate comes back) are all targets for other parties. All have the chance of going to those parties.

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  25. Volkov that was just my prediction of likely events.

    But sure the seats you suggeest are within the realm of possibility of flipping, however unlikely that may be.

    Then again its likely Mr. Donovan will not have to worry about the Liberal party being taken over by NDP premiers because Ujjal Dosangh may lose the next election.

    Joyce Murray, maybe Hedy Fry, Sukh Dhaliwal, and Keith Martin could also be in danger.

    Bill Siksay and Don Davies for the NDP will have a tough race too.

    3 or 4 lower mainland/island seats for the CPC are a bit shakey. DL always says Kamloops but I doubt it.

    And that concludes our march west.

    PS - How much fun would it be if Turks and Caicos became a province ?

    We're doing so much in Haiti and a big airport + deep water shipping port on nearby Canadian soil could have allowed us to help more effectively.

    If we want to counter China, Russia, and Venezeula and become more involved in Central and South American affairs it might seem like a logical step to expand our empire south!

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  26. Shadow,

    Well, the only person I'd take off of your list is Joyce Murray. She isn't in danger; Vancouver Quadra is pretty much solidly Liberal, once everyone gets their act together. That's why the margin between the Libs and Cons went from less than 1% in the by-election, to nearly 10% in the actual election. And, well, Hedy Fry, do you think she's ever actually going away? XD

    Dhaliwal's riding is probably the safest out of the rest, though. Dosanjh is the most in danger. Siksay and Davies are also moderately in danger, but the vote usually splits between the Libs and Cons anyways.

    And that'd be cook if Turks and Caicos were a province. However, I don't know how much support you'd get here. But, if they were a province, they'd vote Liberal or NDP most likely. The two parties down there are pretty much two left-of-centre to centre parties.

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  27. If Shelly Glover loses - she could always go into acting. I could see Hollywood casting agents snapping her up as a character actress to play "the vicious matron" in a a movie set in a womens' prison!

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  28. Volkov same candidates are running again in Quadra so it could be interesting. 3rd run is usually do or die. I'll watch it.

    Fry always manages to pull out victory. And I think the CPC candidate this time around may be weaker. Don't know why Mayencourt didn't run again.

    I'm not worried about Turks and Caicos being Dipper or Liberal seats, its more the strategic importance.

    Did you know at one time many of the Antilles islands had formed a short lived confederation modelled after Canada that would possibly join Canada ??

    We should gobble up the region. Invite Belize to join us too.

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  29. Shadow,

    Strategically, eh, I don't think its too important. We already have close ties to the region, so we don't need to take on hundreds of thousands of low-income foreign nationals in one gulp in order to fulfill any "strategic interest." Canada just needs to actually be engaged in this area diplomatically, more so than the current or the past government has bothered. Canada isn't any "empire," so I don't know why you want to make us one.

    Besides, why would Belize join Canada? They're quite well off on their own.

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  30. If Glover loses, she will go back to the Winnipeg Police Service, where she is currently on leave of abscence.

    I will give the lady credit, where credit is due.

    She has an outstanding record, as a police officer.

    So in a sense, I hope she does lose so she can return to doing a job she excels at.

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  31. Then again, she would also be excellent as Nurse Ratched in a remake of One Flew Over the Cuckoos Nest.

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  32. Volkov there is undiscovered oil throughout the region, i'm sure it would pay for those foriegn nationals.

    At any rate English is spoken in these areas. They're part of the commonwealth, share our history and system of government.

    It seems a natural progression that all the British and French holdings in the New World would be decolonized by the Europeans and joined with Canada.

    We're not really an integrative nation state. More of a loose federal framework for a disparite band of former colonies.

    Accepting more provinces could further decentralize the federal government and lessen the impact of Quebec on our politics.

    Both are welcome developments.

    If there is a constitutional referendum on Turks and Caicos joining i'll be voting yes.

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  33. Shadow,

    So, all decolonized British and French colonies would then submit themselves to be another colony... yeah, I don't see this happening.

    Canada is not a colonial power. Canada should not be a colonial power. We're one of the few examples in the world of a former colony that peacefully separated from its former imperial masters, and never went out to colonize other countries outside of its own contiguous landmass. Let's stay that example.

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  34. Volkov how would they become another colony ?

    We are all provinces in a confederation. They would join as a fellow province with powers equal to all provinces and not a colony of Canada.

    Canada never "colonized" the island of Newfoundland. Its a ridiculous notion.

    If a countries citizens willingly vote to join confederation and the citizens of existing provinces willingly vote to allow them to join its a process far, far differet then European colonization.

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  35. Ken Dryden for GG !


    (York Centre is one of the safest Liberal ridings in the country. If Iggy lost it in a by-election the knives would be out).

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  36. New HD Poll,

    CPC 32%

    LIB 29%

    NDP 17%

    GRN 11%

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  37. 49 Steps,

    I saw that poll, but the results for the provinces and regions aren't out yet.

    That's a depressing poll, though. Despite what that neo-Tory Gregg says, I'd be weeping if I was Liberal, Conservative, NDP, or anyone else. Canadians seem to be so apathetic about their politics. Us politicos arguing on here are a very, very small minority of people. We're insignificant, in all honesty.

    Heh. I wonder what we'll do. Not as a Liberal, but just as a Canadian. We're letting it all slip away.

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  38. Volkov I think people are more engaged with local concerns and not the big picture nation building stuff you Trudeau types like.

    Nova Scotians will be angry at the NDP for their 2% HST hike. Also hurts their efforts in BC/Ontario to appear anti-HST:

    http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/100406/national/nsbudget

    Our justice system feels broken:

    http://www.ctvbc.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20100406/bc_schoenborn_100406/20100406?hub=BritishColumbia

    According to Paul Wells while Canadians aren't watching Harper is changing Canada drip by drip. Who knows. This reminds me of Dion:

    If I were a Liberal, I would be weeping," Gregg said.

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  39. Volkov,

    Our politics has become so nasty and divisive the last few years.

    It is always "Attack" "Attack" "Attack"

    Maybe if Ignatieff, and team can articulate a positive message, and appeal to the greater good, maybe the Libs, can stop spinning their wheels.

    I know I am a partisan Liberal, but I really have not seen such a low brand of politics, as practiced by Harper, and company.

    Their goal is to poison the well, and drive down voter turnout, and turn people off politics.

    I hope the Libs can break through that filter, and remind people how great we are as as a people, and how great our nation, should be.

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  40. Shadow,

    I disagree. People are sick of politicians far and wide, whether its local or "big picture Trudeau type" stuff. I don't think any politician on any level is immune right now.

    Let's face it. To Canadians, we're basically all stinkers. Very few respect politicians, and very few care. It's a problem that must be addressed, or we'll lose this democracy. Thats never good.

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  41. Shadow,

    As Canadians, we should all be weeping.

    I will put my partisan hat aside, and politely ask you to do the same.

    Do you think there is any joy in these numbers for anybody?

    I am not happy as a Canadian at all, and I think we should all feel a little sad about the apathetic situation in the nation.

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  42. 49 Steps,

    You're right in bringing that up. Harper's tactics, regardless of their effectiveness, are hurting this country's institutions. I wouldn't say Harper is the worst I've seen, but they're getting there.

    However, it isn't just Harper either. I get the feeling sometimes that the Liberals are trying to be all things to all people. And when we try to pin ourselves down, like with the abortion thing, we mess it up. It's a problem the Democrats face down south. We need to show that we stand for something. We need to have more conversations than just Can150. If we don't, we're going to end up waiting a long time until the next Liberal government.

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  43. Volkov,

    You are right.

    The Liberals have to start articulating what they stand for, and put forth sound policy.

    Let Canadians compare and contrast the difference with the Tories.

    The Liberals, have lost their way, and have lost their confidence.

    They are afraid of showing anything because of the Harper attack machine.

    I think it is time to appeal to Canadians sense of the greater good, and what unites us as a people, rather than what divides us, which is what Harper plays.

    Just do it, and let the chips fall where they may.

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  44. Volkov, 49 steps you stop the witch hunt against Guergis then we'll talk.

    Let's face it she is where she is because she's a woman married to a man.

    And women in politics are unfairly asked to take responsibility for the actions and behaviours of their husbands.

    If Jaffer had never happened ?

    Just her getting upset at the airport ? It would last for 2 or 3 days and be gone.

    Just like we don't mention Minister Blackburn or Minister McCallum's airport mini-scandals.

    But let's face it. The media and opposition used the story as a jumping pad to bring up Jaffer again.

    Its politics of personal destruction. An attempt to destroy a political minister.

    Don't worry guys you'll your scalp.

    But it'll be a sad day for women in politics and Canadians.

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  45. That should say you'll get your scalp.


    Unfortunately we'll never improve our politics until the opposition takes responsibility for their part in it.

    Simply saying politics is bad and then using that fact to attack Harper is hypocritical and contradictory.

    It's decorum as a weapon.

    Its counter productive and solves nothing.

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  46. Shadow,

    I've brought up Blackburn's stuff several times, and I don't know anything about McCallum.

    This new line of Conservatives crying "sexist" at everyone is tiring. Its nowhere even close to the truth. Guergis screwed up, several times, in several ways, and she's paying the political price for it. Blackburn screwed up too, and so apparently did McCallum. They should all be held responsible, but Guergis has a lot more to answer for.

    But, if you want to continue to wail on about Guergis when we're talking about political apathy, well, that's your choice.

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  47. Shadow,

    Guergis, is in the situation she is in due to her own actions.

    They are not anybody's else's fault but her own.

    Jaffer also created his own world of misery, all by himself.

    Maybe you shouldn't be taking a complex issue like crime, and trying to come up with simplistic solutions to it like the tories are doing.

    Guergis was never asked to take responsibility for her husband.

    You still do not understand why people were offended by her actions do you?

    As for the politics of personal destruction, your leader is a master at them.

    What Harper did to Dion was an abomination.

    The rest of your rant was pretty non sensical.

    Try and pick up your game a bit.

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  48. Volkov, 49 steps its hard to take you guys seriously.

    Political apathy is a problem. OK i'm with you.

    But then you turn around and with your next breath slam Harper for his dirty tactics.

    Its like you can't even take a 10 second break from taking partisan pot shots.

    So you can see why its hard for anyone to take it seriously.

    Let's be honesty your complaints are a political tactic designed to paint the LPC as victims and the CPC as mean bullies.

    Same thing happening in the United States right now.

    Obama is described as the sane, rational, bipartisan figure.

    The tea parties are described as racist and unhinged. Every unfortunate remark, act of violence, threat, or sign is magnified and latched on to as a way to taint the entire group.


    If you want to talk about serious solutions to voter apathy we can.

    If you just want to take partisan pot shots at PM Harper then you're being a joke.

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  49. 49

    CBC piece. The Tories knew in 2009, internal memo, that detainees where being tortured and did nothing

    http://tinyurl.com/ylsozed

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  50. Shadow,

    You don't think Harper is to blame for some of this? I'll accept that the Liberals and Opposition have some part too, but do you really think Harper has no part to blame? Really?

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  51. Shadow,

    Thank you for that.

    I was trying to make a point about political apathy, and Harper's tactics.

    Did you not admit yourself, that the CPC, is trying deliberately to drive down voter turnout?

    Did you not admit yourself, that the aim of the 10 % ers was to not try and gain a vote to the CPC, but to keep a voter home and not vote Liberal?

    I can recall on a previous thread, about you stating that tactic was being used in ridings with a Jewish population.

    Did you not admit the CPC goal was to poison the well, drive down voter turnout, and turn people off politics?

    Well Mr. Shadow, you did admit all of those things, and you were proud of them.

    You also love the use of attack ads between elections, used on the LOO.

    You are also proud of those.

    These are the things I am talking about.

    The CPC, is driving voter apathy, because they are only trying to appeal to a small slice of the electorate.

    They don't care about broad appeal.

    They practice division, and more division.

    I believe the day will come when these tactics will bite the CPC, on the ass, and I hope it is soon.

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  52. Volkov I think almost everybody is to blame.

    But the way to fix these problems is to have discussions without the finger pointing and arguements over who is the worst offender.

    That's counter productive.

    Its also usually a tip off that someone is more interested in spinning a victimhood/you're mean narrative for partisan advantage then actually fixing things.

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  53. 49 steps those are indeed tactics the CPC and LPC both employ.

    The hidden agenda attack ads and the constant dredging up of abortion and gay issues are designed to scare moderates, drive down turnout amongst potential CPC voters, and energize the liberal base.

    And I won't be taking any lectures from the body bag crew on 10 percenters.


    See the above conversation with Volkov.

    You're not interested in fixing voter apathy or improving the level of discourse in our politics.

    You're interested in spinning a victomhood narrative for the LPC and a meaness narrative for the CPC.

    The end result is to poison the well, drive down turnout, and polarize the electorate on a Liberal-Conservative basis.

    Shame and Irony.

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  54. Peter,

    Thanks for the tip.

    Off to read.

    That is kind of interesting though isn't it?

    ReplyDelete
  55. Shadow,

    Oh, but Shadow, if we don't know whose the worst offender, how will we ever figure out who to beat down with that mighty stick of voter anger?

    Accept ye sins, my son, and I'll accept mine. But don't ask me to forgive your party's purposeful intent on driving voter apathy to US mid-term election levels when its clearly there. You can't ignore the elephant in the room.

    As a Conservative, you should work on fixing the problem your party helps create. As a Liberal, I'm more than glad to work on fixing the same thing. Being partisan and co-operating can still work, ya know.

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  56. 49
    "That is kind of interesting though isn't it?"

    just another example of the Tories lying to the public.

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  57. Peter,

    This is getting interesting.

    General Thompson, said defence forces used info obtained from the NDS, and considered it useful.

    Paul Champ, says NDS, can't be trusted with detainees transfered into it's authority by Canadian soldiers, and the Conservative Government is well aware of this.

    HMM!!

    What does it smell like to you?

    Harper is going to fight tooth and nail, to hang onto those documents.

    And we can pretty much guess why can't we?

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  58. Volkov finding the worst offender is not helpful. There is enough voter anger to go around.

    When a couple goes in for marriage counselling they're given instructions NOT to argue who's more responsible for the troubles, point fingers, and lay blame.

    Anyways this is just another acrimonious partisan arguement.

    The only way to solve it is to identify a general problem (voter apaty for instance) and come up with solutions we can all support without trying to score points off each other.

    Arguing over who's the most responsible for the percieved problems with our politics is partisan blood sport, not civic service.

    Don't pretend your narrative spinning is for the public good. Its for the good of your party to be percieved as reasonable and sympathetic while the opposition is seen as mean and bullying.

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  59. 49 I'm sorry but everything Harper is practicing he learned from the LPC. The nastiness on both sides goes back as far as I can remember. The Munsinger affair during the Diefenbaker years. The Guy Favreau affair when Pearson was PM. Trudeau and Davey were masters at the political smear and successfully portrayed Robert Stanfield as a geriatric old fool. Later they smeared Joe Clark.

    The best stuff though was the work of the LPC under Jean Chretien. The secret agenda campaigns of the Chretien and Martin years were as nasty IMO as anything Harper has done, if not more so. The attacks on Stockwell Day for his religious beliefs. They rank right up there with anything Harper has done. The difference is that the LPC is on the receiving end now.

    Now that I got that out of my system I do agree with Volkov that it would be great if we could find a way to make politics about the real issues and get rid of the cheap shots.

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  60. Jeffery Simpson as regards the proposal for expanding the House of Commons:

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/the-fine-line-between-ontario-quebec-and-representation/article1525382/

    ReplyDelete
  61. Earl,

    Politics has always been played this way.
    The use of large television advertising campaigns has created an impression negative campaigns are a recent phenoma.

    History can demostrate correct the adoption of (expensive) National TV attack ads and political party funding, the parties had to rely on buying space in national, regional newspapers. Regional and door to door campaigns were more frequent.

    That is one of the reasons why many of us want to eliminate taxpayer funding to all parties.

    Member of Parliament, and Father of Confederation Thomas D’Arcy McGee would also agree things have improved in resolving disputes.

    http://www.mcgeesinn.com/

    ReplyDelete

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