Thursday, April 22, 2010

New EKOS Poll: 4.6-pt Conservative Lead

EKOS's weekly poll indicates that while the recent scandals and issues have weakened the Conservatives, it hasn't dragged them down.EKOS points out that in the wake of the Guergis scandal, the Liberals and Conservatives were polling at a tie. But over the last week, things have normalized and the Liberals have falled back 1.9 points to 27.1%. The Conservatives are up 0.3 points to 31.7%. That is still way too low for the governing party.

The New Democrats are down 0.1 points to 16.3%, while the Greens are up 1.5 to 12.6% and the Bloc Québécois is up 0.7 points to 9.5%. "Other" is down 0.6 points to 2.7%.

In Ontario, the Liberals and Conservatives have traded about two points, as the Liberals are down to 34.6% and the Conservatives are up to 33.1%. The Liberals can be happy with the lead, but they need to be doing better. The NDP is stable, with 17.0%. The Liberals lead in Toronto with 40.8%, followed by the Conservatives at 30.6%. In Ottawa, the Tories lead with 41.7%, while the NDP seems to have taken their biggest hit (11 points) here.

In Quebec, the Bloc is up three points to 38.4%, dominating over the Liberals who are at 22.7% (down one). The Conservatives have fallen away steeply, down two points to 13.8%. The Greens are at 12.0%. In Montreal, the Bloc leads the Liberals 32.4% to 21.8%.

In British Columbia, the Conservatives are moving back into a comfortable lead, up two points to 34.7%. The NDP is up four to 28.1% and the Liberals are down four to a troublesome 21.6%. The Greens are steady at 13.3%. The Conservatives lead in Vancouver with 36.2%.

Elsewhere, the Tories lead in Atlantic Canada with 34.7% and the Prairies with 43.8%. The NDP is down six points there to 18.2%. In Alberta, the Conservatives are well ahead with 56.4%.

The Conservatives would win 66 seats in the West, 39 in Ontario, 4 in Quebec, and 12 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 121 seats. That dismal result in Quebec hurts.

The Liberals win 15 seats in the West, 49 in Ontario, 17 in Quebec, and 17 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 98.

The Bloc wins 54 seats, matching their all-time best. They really just have no competition.

The NDP wins 14 seats in the West, 18 in Ontario, and 3 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 35. Coupled with the Liberals, they outnumber the Tories 133 to 121.

The big thing to take away from this poll is that all of the brouhaha in Ottawa is not having much of an effect, other than to disillusion enough Canadians to make either one of the two major parties the choice of less than 1/3rd of Canadians. A governing mandate built on such a low level of support would be difficult to justify.

83 comments:

  1. Will be interesting to see next weeks poll.

    This one really only highlights the public's disillusion with the big two.

    Plus further decline in Quebec

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  2. New leaders all around are needed. I bet if either party elected a new leader they'd advance in the polls like Ignatieff did last year.

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  3. Looks to me from that poll that if Milliken rules against Harper there won't be any election. The Tories will capitulate.

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  4. As far as a mandate to govern goes: whoever wins, wins. It's a dumb system, but if the party with the most seats doesn't govern, nobody else will. In the '90s, the BC NDP and the Parti quebecois both governed for five years despite coming second in the popular vote.

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  5. Frustrating how at 12.6% the Greens still don't get a seat. Of course, if the mess with the old PC party going down to 2 seats despite nearly 20% support couldn't force electoral reform I don't know what will.

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  6. We appear to have two Johns now, both Green supporters.

    As lower-case John is newer, would you mind changing your moniker (maybe a last name initial) to avoid confusion?

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  7. GI

    That's the way FPTP works.

    I wonder how the seat numbers would look under PropRep Eric ?

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  8. --- I wonder how the seat numbers would look under PropRep Eric ?

    If it was straight-up PR, it would be:

    Conservatives - 98
    Liberals - 84
    New Democrats - 51
    Greens - 38
    Bloc Quebecois - 29
    Other - 8

    Though, I imagine the Other parties would split too much and not have enough individual support to elect anyone. And if PR was split up by provinces, then it would be different as well.

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  9. My Eric that would drastically alter the balance of power and the political centre.

    Very interesting, thanks

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  10. "Looks to me from that poll that if Milliken rules against Harper there won't be any election. The Tories will capitulate."

    Really Peter ?

    Don't you think if there was the slighest chance Harper would have given in he'd have done so already ?

    Let's be clear, Harper will NEVER hand over those documents.

    A vote for the motion means a vote for an election.

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  11. "In the '90s, the BC NDP and the Parti quebecois both governed for five years despite coming second in the popular vote."

    ...and let's not forget south of the border who Bush got fewer votes than Gore and yet didn't hesitate to ram through a radical rightwing agenda.

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  12. From Lawrence Martin article in the Globe:

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/michael-ignatieff-is-tacking-left-finally/article1542198/

    "Frank Graves of Ekos Research, in agreement with the analysis, has told the Grits that the wedge politics of the Conservatives provide them with an opportunity to stake out a stark alternative. Stop worrying about the West, he’s told them. No need to fear polarizing the debate. It’s what worked for Mr. Chretien against Preston Manning and Stockwell Day.

    In his advice, Mr. Graves could hardly have been more blunt. “I told them that they should invoke a culture war. Cosmopolitanism versus parochialism, secularism versus moralism, Obama versus Palin, tolerance versus racism and homophobia, democracy versus autocracy. If the cranky old men in Alberta don’t like it, too bad. Go south and vote for Palin.”


    That says it all.

    Mr. Ignatieff has to stand up immediately and distance himself and the Liberal party from this pro-separation , mean spirited approach presented by Mr. Graves.

    Taxpayer money supports Mr. Graves through the weekly CBC polls.

    Alberta and BC (and Sask) are ideally set up to go it alone as a North American Norway. No need for "the Grumpy old men" to join the States and vote for Pallin.

    It is difficult to argue that the EKOS weekly polls are not incredible biased after you see the "hidden agenda" of the Liberal brain thrust behind them.

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  13. These are interesting numbers from the Green point of view in three respects.

    The first is that Green support really seems to have moved up a notch from a month ago when it was just over 10%. It now seems to be in the mid-11 range. One poll is noise; four polls is signal.

    For the Tories or Grits, this would be noise in the range of their swings. For the Green Party it's very important because at this level the number of ridings winning over 10% of the vote jumps drastically. That in turn means that 60% of eligible election expenses are reimbursed, which dramatically changes campaign fundraising and planning. (The Tories may huff and puff about the per-vote subsidies but they won't let go of the campaign reimbursement cash cow any time soon.)

    For the second point, that 10% threshold would be meaningless if Greens were polling 40% in some regions and 2% in others. However, this week's figures are unprecedented in my personal poll-watching, and quite possibly in Canadian polling history. The spread of Green support across all regions varies from 12% in Quebec to 13.2% in BC, or by 1.2%, a fraction of the margin of error. Put differently, that's 10% relative to the amount of Green support. The Green Party is truly national. To put this into context, the Tory, Grit, Dipper and Bloc ranges of support as a percentage of national support are 134%, 66%, 112% and 404% respectively. They are in a different world.

    The third point is that this doesn't help the Green Party under our antiquated first-past-the-post system, apart from maximizing campaign reimbursements. Greens may have a third more supporters than the Bloc, but Éric forecasts 54 Bloc seats versus 0 Greens. I believe the last number is a bit low, but not by much.

    Greens would really prefer to see high numbers in regions where multiple parties vie for the lead in exchange for support in regions dominated by a single party (Alberta is the poster child for the latter). BC is a clear example of a multi-way bunfight. Ontario is a two-way tussle but the Dippers have won seats with Green-like levels of support province-wide. I probably haven't given Atlantic Canada enough attention in past, where three parties battle for the regional lead. (This may break down at the provincial level and I invite deeper commentary.)

    So, this is a good news-bad news poll for the Greens, but overall it's unquestionably good news. The numbers that count are those certified by Elections Canada, but the Green Party is certain to see unprecedented popular support in the next election.

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  14. Shadow,

    The polls are showing that the public is not enamoured with any of them. They are apathetic.

    I have one question for you though.

    Why will Harper NEVER hand over the documents?

    Why is that?

    What exactly do you think is in them that is so incriminating to Harper.

    Shadow, no spin just an honest assessment of the situation.

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  15. DL nor do I see anything wrong with that either.

    Both the American and Canadian system have a level of geographical representation to them. In the UK there is protection for Scotland and Wales in terms of seat counts.

    Bush had far more widespread (geogrpahically) support than Kerry but Kerry ran up huge margins in some coastal states like California.

    A strictly popular vote system would reduce politics to flying from major city to major city. Vancouver, Toronto, and Montreal would dominate everything.

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  16. Strategic Counsel used to do polls whereby they would show the national numbers etc and then show the national numbers without Quebec because of the Bloc not being in any province. I'd love to see EKOS do that-I would assume in the other 233 seats the conservatives are owning a majority of those. I know come election-the Bloc are there but it would be very interesting to see the national numbers without them.

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  17. Éric: Though, I imagine the Other parties would split too much and not have enough individual support to elect anyone.

    Proportional representation systems usually have some minimum threshold for winning any seats. It's unlikely that any Canadian fringe party today would meet that threshold. (Refutations based on solid numbers are invited.)

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  18. Shadow: Let's be clear, Harper will NEVER hand over those documents.

    A vote for the motion means a vote for an election.


    Which means that after the election, the non-confidence vote (if required) and the formation of a Grit minority government, the unredacted documents will be delivered to Committee.

    If the documents are really that toxic, Harper's optimal strategy is probably to get them out ASAP. That way he has at least some control over subsequent events.

    Hypothetically, even if documented evidence of war crimes by the PM and cabinet were discovered, all parties would still hesitate to haul a sitting Prime Minister before the bench. If nothing happens for long enough, the moment and the momentum are lost. There will be political fallout, but the probability of legal fallout decreases. If the Grits open Pandora's Box post-election, the Tories' position is riskier.

    If the redacted text shows the government's actions to be as pure as the driven snow, there's no need to hurry. But why then would Harper choose this hill to die on?

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  19. Tommies,

    Currently Quebec is still part of Canada.

    I don't want any polls that do not include Quebec.

    That is illogical.

    That is like saying, lets do a poll without Alberta, because Harper is going to sweep there anyway.

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  20. Eric could you you massage this last poll to give us the results in the ROC. I'd be interested in seeing the numbers. I know it doesn't change the seats results.TIA

    Earl

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  21. I think one of the problems with this poll is that even after all the Guergis allegations, the LPOC still falls. 2.2 percent while the Torie hold their own. While not good news for either the CPC or LPOC this poll is bad news for Iggy who just can't get any traction and is barely polling above Dion levels.

    If it comes down to it I don't think Harper will be afraid to go to an election over the detainee issue. Again I think an election on the detainee issue would possibly produce a majority for either of the major parties. Were I, Harper though I'd take the odds which I'd put at 60/40 for the CPC in light of these poll numbers. No doubt both the LPOC and the CPC have done extensive private polling around d the entire subject and have a much better idea of the outcomes than we do.

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  22. "Taxpayer money supports Mr. Graves through the weekly CBC polls."

    You're assuming that the CBC actually pays Ekos for those polls> I actually suspect that Ekos does it for free to get some publicity and that the CBC doesn't pay them a penny.

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  23. Eric are you referring to my request? I'm wondering if you could pull out the results for Quebec and then give us popular vote total for the rest of Canada based on this poll. Does that make sense?

    Thanks,

    Earl

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  24. OT: Ontario's new Green Fee unconstitutional.

    http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=2938485

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  25. Earl, a quick and dirty calculation yields these results for Canada (sans Quebec):

    CPC 37.4
    LPC 28.7
    NDP 18.4
    GPC 12.9
    OTH 2.5

    Of course, Quebec is part of Canada (for now) and to be a national party you need to appeal to all Canadians.

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  26. 49 steps to answer your question:

    "What exactly do you think is in them that is so incriminating to Harper"

    Nothing.

    The documents most likely show gross negligence on the part of the Liberals when they signed the original detainee transfer agreement with the Afghans (although a war crimes charge requires intent/malice so they're in the clear legally speaking.)

    So why is Harper protecting the Liberals ?

    Because even though the buck stops with the Liberals (ministerial accountability) Harper knows that it would damage fmr CDS Hillier, the military in general, and destroy the Afghan mission.


    In the end, Harper is acting on principle and rising above petty political concerns to protect Canada's foriegn policy goals and the prestige of the military.

    For that reason Harper will never willingly turn over the documents, even if it means an election.

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  27. Thanks Eric!! Quebec is indeed a part of Canada and I hope it stays that way. It is a place I've visited only once and would like to see much more of. I'm unilingual though and am afraid of the reaction I'd get in Quebec. Quebec city is one place I do hope to get to.

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  28. Shadow, the comment section here isn't a tryout for a job with the PMO.

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  29. Earl, Quebec City is a major tourist destination, so unilingual anglophones aren't a rarity. I wouldn't worry about it.

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  30. Shadow,

    That was not honest debating.

    You are just giving spin.

    I would like to have a conversation with you, if you could drop that.

    Maybe I spin as well, but not to your extent.

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  31. Just for fun, if we had a half-PR, half FPTP parliament (and a German-style threshold of 5% or three FPTP seats) using Eric's projections we would have:

    CPC: 110
    LIB: 92
    NDP: 44
    BLQ: 42
    GRN: 20

    This isn't exactly the German system because they take away some of your PR seats if you win a lot of FPTP seats. But still, we would have a very similar dynamic to Germany: two major parties and three minor ones, with coalitions of two or even three parties usually needed.

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  32. In the end, Harper is acting on principle and rising above petty political concerns to protect Canada's foriegn policy goals and the prestige of the military.

    Typical spin 49 ? The truth being that there is stuff in those documents that very directly nails the Harper Govt for ignoring if not encouraging detainee abuse. We've had enough testimony under oath to know that the stuff is there. Plus the UK trial is bringing out that not only did we do it but they did too and apparently NATO as well.

    So if you ask me it is very much a CYA operation.

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  33. OT:

    The HST fight in BC:

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/sha-zahm-hes-back-on-the-political-stage/article1542405/

    Any chance the Zalm succeeds, Ira or Shadow or anyone else from BC?

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  34. What is a supposedly neutral pollster doing giving advice to the Liberals? Are the polling results paid for by the CBC, thusly suspect?

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/spector-vision/cbc-pollsterliberal-adviser/article1542838/

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  35. --- What is a supposedly neutral pollster doing giving advice to the Liberals?

    Maybe the asked?

    There's no reason to doubt the raw numbers because of something like this. And the involvement of the CBC would certainly not raise any red flags.

    In any case, the Liberals have been doing badly in EKOS polls anyway.

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  36. In the original Globe piece is this as well:

    This follows a warning by pollster Allan Gregg. His research suggests the Liberals have lost ground because they no longer are seen to represent values that resonate with the broad sweep of Canadians.

    If it had just been Graves I would probably agree. This changes the scene and I remember seeing very recently somebody from AR essentially saying the same thing. That the Liberals have sort of lost their way seems fairly obvious though.

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  37. Earl everyone knows the CBC and apparently EKOS and Frank Graves have a left wing bias.

    Is it intentional ? The silly inclusion of "other" and the prompting of Green ?

    It certainly does undermine the Conservatives by making them appear to have less support than they truly do.

    The whole thing is suspect. I see every reason to doubt it all.

    True liberal support is probably around 26%. EKOS has been very generous to the Liberals...

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  38. Eric:

    True liberal support is probably around 26%. EKOS has been very generous to the Liberals...

    Nothing like unfounded accusations, eh??

    Let's see him prove it without using "spin" ??

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  39. Peter its basic logic.

    Iggy is a worse leader than Dion, who at least improved Liberal Quebec numbers, was a respected federalist, and captured the public's imagination on environmental issues.

    If Iggy is worse than Dion it stands to reason that his election results will be too!

    I expect big numbers from the NDP and the Greens at the expense of the Liberals next go around.

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  40. Peter its basic logic.

    Iggy is a worse leader than Dion, who at least improved Liberal Quebec numbers, was a respected federalist, and captured the public's imagination on environmental issues.


    I said without SPIN and should have added without PMO Talking Points

    Congratulations. You have failed miserably, watch out for the pooping puffin coming at you.

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  41. New poll, attn Earl:

    http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Peter+MacKay+Conservative+leader+Poll/2935496/story.html

    Amazingly Jean Charest is still the #2 choice of Canadians to replace Harper as CPC leader. MacKay being #1.

    Of course somebody should probably point that this poll is meaningless.

    Canadians don't choose the CPC leader, members of the CPC party do!

    They should have asked ONLY CPC supporters. I'd suspect the list of names would look a lot different!

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  42. That may be, but Canadians elect that leader to office.

    While no one wins like a winner, I don't think Harper has actually been a great leader for the Conservatives. He didn't have anyone of high calibre against him in the leadership contest, however.

    But had a leader like McKay, who is more personally likable and has less of a right-wing past (i.e., Reform and the firewall), been leading the party it is likely they would have formed a majority in 2008.

    All polls have shown that Canadians don't like Harper very much, with perjorative terms always coming up when asked to describe the PM. He's also seen as competent, which is why he has managed to win minorities. A new leader that can be seen as competent and likable and more of a Progressive Conservative should be able to win a majority against a weak Liberal opposition.

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  43. Dion captured the publics imagination on enviromental issues?

    When did that happen?

    "He was a respected federalist"

    No respect given to him by Harper.

    No acknowledgement on his authoring the "Clarity Act"

    Dion was attacked mercilessly by Harper.

    As for Liberal votes going to the Greens and the NDP, that is "IDLE SPECULATION"

    I can say the same thing, CPC, votes will go Liberal because of the Harper turnoff factor.

    It makes just as much common sense as Shadow's statement.

    I can also say many NDP, and Green votes will go Liberal, it means just as much as Shadow's statement, which is nothing.

    As for Quebec numbers, the CPC numbers are in the toilet in Quebec.

    There is even speculation the CPC has given up on Quebec.

    Anyone can throw statements around, who cares?

    If you can not back up what you say without any evidence it is just idle speculation, or a specious attempt to try and change facts.

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  44. Eric the point of a political party isn't to win a majority.

    Its to advance a set of policies based around a coherent philisophy.

    What's the point of a majority if its going to be used for flimsy liberal lite policies. Why not just let the Liberals win in that case ?


    The CPC elects its own leader via membership. Its proud of its reform/alliance past.

    Canadians can take it or leave it.

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  45. 49
    Its proud of its reform/alliance past.

    Canadians can take it or leave it.


    They are doing the latter in ever increasing numbers it seems. Harper's day is done.

    Article V of the GG's Letters Patent should do him in nicely.

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  46. So, basically Shadow believes in a Conservative Party which resembles the Teabaggers down south.

    They move themselves as right-wing as remotely possible, as anti-Obama as remotely possible, and refuse any sort of compromise with Democrats, even though doing so diminishes their chance at getting elected. After all, any compromise with the Democrats or Obama turns away from True Conservative (TM) values that Reagan championed.

    As for Canadians, it's clear that Canadians are "leaving" the Alliance/Reform past. That's why even with ineffectual Liberal leaders and a shameless NDP leader, they still cannot reach a majority.

    Will this lead to Conservatives slowly surrounding Stephen while clutching daggers?

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  47. I know predictions are only that but, 308.com always seems to have very generous seat totals for the Liberals out West. Against a divided Conservative party and a demoralized NDP the Grits won 27 seats in 1993, 15 seats in 1997, 14 seats in 2000, 14 seats 2004, 14 seats 2006 and, 7 seats in 2008.

    This last poll showed the Grits .8% higher than their 2008 popular vote results yet in the prediction they gain 8 seats out West! What is going on?

    For what it is worth I plugged the numbers into the UBC matrix and came up with 10 seats for the Grits out West. I think this is a much more acurate result.

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  48. Shadow what do you think of the Conservatives being the only party doing dramatically worse then 2008?

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  49. SirMackBowell,

    You can't look at the Liberal numbers in isolation, the Tories are down in every province out West, and the Liberals are up.

    Also, consider that I include the North in the "West" numbers.

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  50. Shadow,

    I agree with you. This Prime Minister would consider it akin to losing his manhood if he were to back down and produce unredacted documents.

    You know what they say about personal pride going before a fall!

    Election, here we come. Yipee! (As for a possible Supreme Court reference, that will serve as nothing more than a stalling tactic - no confidence is the way to go as far as I'm concerned.)

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  51. Éric,

    With respect, MacKay has no chance: Charest's chances are practically nil and MacKay's are less than that...the Orchard thing was really the kiss of death for Peter -- royally pissed off the Red Tories and alienated the Alliance base by MacKay striking a deal with Orchard in the first place.

    The Alliance base will pick the next CPC leader -- and it won't be MacKay, Charest or for that matter, Prentice or Bernier.

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  52. All,

    As things stand now:

    Jacques Gourde: would bet he wins again - odds: 66%;

    Steven Blaney and Christian Paradis: may pull it out - odds: 50-50;

    All other Conservative Quebec MPs = wiped off the political map.

    Just call it my reading the "tea leaves" (again)!

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  53. Frank Graves is coming under heavy fire today, the credibility of EKOS is on the line.

    http://www.sortofpolitical.com/2010/04/kory-teneycke-rocks.html

    The revelation that Graves gave $11,000 to the LPC is a bit of a stunner.

    Of course i've been on to this for awhile, implimenting my EKOS bias adjustment formula (+3 CPC, -3 Greens, elimate Other and give their total to the CPC).

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  54. Earl:
    What is a supposedly neutral pollster doing giving advice to the Liberals? Are the polling results paid for by the CBC, thusly suspect?

    Allan Gregg repeated exactly what I pointed out on the Globe piece tonight on At Issue.

    Graves is NOT alone !

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  55. John Baird would be another good leader for the Conservatives though Jim Prentice would be my pick.

    It's probably unlikely either of them would become leaders though because of the social conservatives in the west who dominate the Conservative Party. A lot of the Reformers I doubt are that open to Baird's sexuality and a red tory who supports sam-sex marriage and is pro-choice like Prentice wouldn't go over well either.

    If the PC party was still around I'd say they would have a majority.

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  56. Shadow,

    You are taking away 3% of the green vote and giving it to the CPC.

    You then turn around and give the "other" vote to the CPC.

    You have no basis in fact to do this, it is only your own conjecture.

    The polls are all saying the CPC, is around 32-33%

    You may not like it, but that is fact.

    The Liberals, are also in the toilet, which I will freely admit.

    Darrell Bricker of Ipsos, always has the CPC, higher than any other pollster.

    Could the NP, Canwest Global connection have anything to do with that?

    Using your analogy, I could also say take 5% off the tories in an Ipsos poll and give it to the Liberals because Bricker is biased.

    It doesn't make my assertion true, any more than what yours is.

    I think it is safe to say the public is not enamored with either of the two largest parties right now.

    I really would like to have a conversation with you, where you could put aside your over the top partisanship.

    Lets see if we can both do that, and try and have a sensible discussion.

    The ball is in your court.

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  57. Peter its clear now that Graves and EKOS is done.

    I know you liked them because they gave such good poll results for the Liberals.

    Buts its clear now that EKOS was the outlier.

    Ipsos and AR have been vindicated.

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  58. /kory-teneycke-rocks.html

    And that little piece of the address removes any credibility that site might have and you as well

    To quote a known former PMO spokesperson as gospel shows just how far you will sink.

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  59. Buts its clear now that EKOS was the outlier.

    All that's clear now is that you will use any twist you can and lower yourself to any level to promote your warped view.

    To use Kory Teneycke as a valid resource given that he is a former PMO spokesperson and to ignore Allan Gregg of HD shows the depths you will plumb.

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  60. I'm disappointed that my man Prentice didn't do well in that leadership poll, but think it has something to do with his lower profile in the East.

    The CPC choose their leaders in such a way, as to give more weight to ridings where they don't do well in elections.

    I did a rough calculation one time for my Timmins-James Bay vote compared to one in Calgary, and came up with it being something like 4 or 5 times more valuable.

    If Prentice can reach out in weaker ridings, and maintain support in the West, then he should still be able to pull it out.

    If and when that happens, I would think it would be much easier for him to gain the fabled majority, and put an end to all of theese "Liberal light" policies we've had to endure, in this minority situation.

    He's a social red tory after all, not a fiscal one.

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  61. Peter and 49 steps the Frank Grave situation has now reached critical mass.

    Here is the apology and clarification that EKOS has issued:

    http://www.scribd.com/doc/30394422/Statement-From-Frank-Graves-April-23

    We're in CYA mode at this point. Now over to the Liberal leader:

    Mr. Ignatieff you've recently tacked left and attempted to start a culture war, pitting some Canadians against other Canadians over the maternal health and the gun registry issue. Did Mr. Graves have anything to do with developing this devisive new strategy ??


    First reporter who asks that question deserves an award.

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  62. AJR have missed your commentary. Good to see you back.

    Regards,

    Earl

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  63. --- Peter and 49 steps the Frank Grave situation has now reached critical mass.


    And appears to be over.

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  64. AJR have missed your commentary. Good to see you back.

    Regards,

    Earl

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  65. Shadow

    Apparently you have a major problem with either reading or comprehension.

    The link you gave completely shoots your entire premise down or did you not read the statement Graves made re no party membership and No polling for parties??

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  66. Peter the actual substance of his denials are meaningless.

    Its the fact that he even had to issue an apology and clarification!

    I've never seen anyone from Ipsos or AR doing that.

    Where there is smoke there is fire. EKOS has been permanently damaged and branded a Liberal pollster.

    Game over buddy.

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  67. Shadow,

    Enough of your hyperbole.

    For goodness sake, when you get a hold of something you never let go.

    Ekos is a Liberal poster?

    Did you even comprehend yesterday's poll?

    This was a tempest in teapot.

    I am sure Graves is not the only pollster to offer unsolicited advice to a political party, while giving an interview to a journalist.

    Now move on, and stop your nonsense.

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  68. Hopefully this comes up with my new username (just used my real name as I do on all forums). The system just grabbed part of my email address before.

    As to pollster bias - there are many ways for it to occur, but I wouldn't put too much strength on it. I suspect the pro-CPC ones are putting more weight on older voters while EKOS and the like put it more to an even weighting (weighted by population in each age group, rather than likelihood to vote). Given my Green bias I'd like to believe the EKOS ones but suspect the AR ones are more accurate as to what will happen on election day (whenever it may be).

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  69. 49 Steps

    Reeeeeeaaaaad!!
    I did not say I wanted polls done without Quebec I said Strategic Counsel used to do a comparison on their polls because the Bloc always ends up around 10% of the "national" vote when they only run in one province. So it skewed the numbers. And because the Bloc only runs in one-a COMPARISON in each poll would be nice!!!!!!

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  70. I'm still not sure of why that matters. If a party is at 30% with Quebec included and at 33% without Quebec included, it doesn't change the fact that the party is at 30% in Canada and that is the number that counts in an election.

    It doesn't skew the numbers at all. The Bloc is at 10% nationally because 10% of Canadians support them.

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  71. Eric thanks for doing that-pulling Quebec just for a comparison. Like I said earlier post Strategic Counsel used to do that-because the Bloc poll at 10% of the "national" vote it skews. Good job eric!!

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  72. Eric

    When the 10% of Canadians supporting the Bloc are all in one province-it is different to me. No other party has that distinction.The 10% say for the Green would not reslut in 45-50 seats for the Green like the Bloc are going to get out of their 10%.

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  73. So? What difference does it make to take Quebec out of the equation? You need 155 seats for a majority out of the 308, not 117 out of 233 outside of Quebec.

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  74. The Bloc wouldn't skew the national results anymore then the Conservatives are skewing the national results with there support in Alberta.

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  75. Alberta is not the only province that the Conservatives run in. The Bloc run in one province only and their 10% national vote translates into 45-50 seats, the NDP run in all provinces and get in the teens(15-19%) and get 35 seats. Maybe skew is the wrong word-by taking Quebec out it shows the strength of the other parties across the country in general. Maybe you should ask Donolo-he saw fit to do the comparison and I found it interesting. Because the conservatives poll 50-60% in Alberta does not mean they get anymore seats-just what's in Alberta.But once it is assimilated with the rest of the provinces you get the overall pic-but you can't do that with the Bloc-they rank at 10% nationally but win 40+seats.
    Sorry if I upset the applecart guys. It does not translate into anything it gives you the pic in the ROC and I find it interesting-nothing more-nothing less.

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  76. EKOS is finished as a pollster. No CPC supporter will answer their polls.

    Next poll will be 35% Lib 30% NDP and 15% Bloc and 15% green and 5% CPC.

    It won't have any value.

    Harper will still be the best PM as even Liberal/NDP and Green supporters agree on that.


    The lack of corelation between the leadership numbers and party numbers suggest that the polls have not been passing the smell test for a while now.

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  77. Eric

    How hard would it be to drop EKOS from your database and what would the seat projections be without EKOS?

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  78. EKOS had the Conservatives with a double-digit lead only a few months ago, and the current highest result for the Tories in the projection is an EKOS poll.

    I won't be removing them from the projection or changing the weight I give them.

    CROP is the pollster of the federalist La Presse. IR is the pollster of the National Post. The only thing that changes my view of each pollster is how close they were to the correct result in 2008, and that will continue to be my only method of judging each pollster until we have more electoral results to compare.

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  79. Eric you can clearly see the difference.

    How much time would you make for a pollster from the Manning Institute? There will be more refusals from the Liberal/NDP left wing in for that poll. That would skew the results the way the Manning Institute would hope for.

    Now that Graves is outted not only as Liberal pollster but a Liberal pollster with radical views that he is promoting on Cultural wars and western alienation you have to see that his sampling has become tainted. There will be more people who will who will not participate in his polls. What do even 10-20 focused hang ups do to a sample of 2000?

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  80. Eric

    In regards to your overall accuracy judgments as to which pollsters accurately predict the election outcomes.

    I seem to recall that there were several pollsters that had drastic swings to the CPC in the last election in their last poll before the election. Was that a electoral change the last few days OR just releasing accurate polls?

    I do not have the data to back this up.

    Would you be able to post the last 4 polls leading into the last election from the various pollsters.

    My theory (might be true because my tin foil hat prevents the mind control) is that pollsters try to influence the election by working the poll results. They can do that until the actual the election where they have to get close results or lose credibility and future income.

    Put yourself in Graves position. Hypothetically you find that Dion is polling 15% - behind the NDP. As a life long Liberal this publishing this might cause a stampede where the Liberals are wiped out and replaced by the NDP.
    Do you release the poll and take a chance it is an outlier? Or would it influence public opinion to make it factual in the next poll.


    This theory seems to be gaining some credence in the MSM as there is lip service being paid to lets limit the polls and listen to the policy. This is done when the polls are beating up on the party whose policies you support.

    Pollsters need to have the appearance of unbiased neutrality. Graves will never get his back.

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