Friday, April 30, 2010

Projection: 126 CPC, 99 LPC, 51 BQ, 32 NDP

A new projection update demonstrates that the Conservatives are holding steady and the New Democrats are making strides forward.Nationally, the Conservatives have dropped 0.2 points to 33.0%, while the Liberals are down 0.3 points and two seats to 28.9% and 99 MPs. That is a bit of a change, as the Liberals have been on an upward trend for a long time now.

The NDP is the week's winner, gaining two seats and 0.1 points, to reach 16.5% and 32 MPs. The Bloc Québécois is up 0.1 points nationally to 9.4% and the Greens are up 0.2 to 10.4%.

In Ontario, the Liberals lead with 36.3% but have dropped 0.1 points and one seat. The Conservatives are also down, however, losing 0.3 points. They are now at 35.2%. The NDP is up 0.2 points to 16.5% and gains a seat, while the Greens are up 0.1 to 10.4%.

In Quebec, the Bloc gains 0.2 points and stands at 38.2%. The Liberals and Conservatives are down 0.3 points to 24.0% and 17.1%, respectively. The NDP is steady at 11.7% and the Greens gain 0.3 points to reach 7.8%.

In British Columbia, the Conservatives are down big: 0.6 points to 35.2%. They also lose a seat. The NDP gains 0.4 points and one seat, and now stand at 26.2%. The Liberals are down 0.2 points to 24.4% and the Greens are down three to 12.1%.

The Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada with 36.8%, down 0.1 points. The Conservatives follow with 31.4%, up 0.1. The NDP is down 0.5 points to 23.4% and the Greens are up 0.5 to 6.7%.

The Conservatives are at 58.7% in Alberta, down 0.1 points. But, they gain a seat and are back to a sweep. The Liberals are down 0.2 points to 17.0% and lose their seat. The NDP is up 0.1 to 10.9% and the Greens are down 0.1 points to 10.3%.

In the Prairies, the Conservatives are down 0.6 points to 46.2%, the NDP is up 0.2 points to 23.0%, and the Liberals are up 0.1 to 21.8%. The Greens are up 0.3 points to 7.5%.

Finally, in the North the Liberals are down 0.1 to 33.3%, the Conservatives are down 0.1 to 29.9%, and the NDP is up 0.1 to 27.2%.

Overall, the NDP has performed best in the last 11 days, gaining ground in 5 out of 7 regions and holding steady in Quebec. Their seat gains in British Columbia and Ontario are hugely important, as are their support gains in those provinces. The big drop in Atlantic Canada, however, is worrisome.

The Bloc had a good 11 days, gaining a little and expanding their lead over the Liberals to 14.2 points.

Both the Liberals and Conservatives had a rough time. The Tories lost a seat, and a lot of ground, in British Columbia, but made it up with a seat gain in Alberta. They lost quite a bit in the Prairies, Ontario, and Quebec, the last two areas hurting them most. The Liberals did not see any huge losses, but had their support nibbled away in all regions but the Prairies. The seat loss in Ontario does not bode well for the future.