Friday, April 30, 2010

Projection: 126 CPC, 99 LPC, 51 BQ, 32 NDP

A new projection update demonstrates that the Conservatives are holding steady and the New Democrats are making strides forward.Nationally, the Conservatives have dropped 0.2 points to 33.0%, while the Liberals are down 0.3 points and two seats to 28.9% and 99 MPs. That is a bit of a change, as the Liberals have been on an upward trend for a long time now.

The NDP is the week's winner, gaining two seats and 0.1 points, to reach 16.5% and 32 MPs. The Bloc Québécois is up 0.1 points nationally to 9.4% and the Greens are up 0.2 to 10.4%.

In Ontario, the Liberals lead with 36.3% but have dropped 0.1 points and one seat. The Conservatives are also down, however, losing 0.3 points. They are now at 35.2%. The NDP is up 0.2 points to 16.5% and gains a seat, while the Greens are up 0.1 to 10.4%.

In Quebec, the Bloc gains 0.2 points and stands at 38.2%. The Liberals and Conservatives are down 0.3 points to 24.0% and 17.1%, respectively. The NDP is steady at 11.7% and the Greens gain 0.3 points to reach 7.8%.

In British Columbia, the Conservatives are down big: 0.6 points to 35.2%. They also lose a seat. The NDP gains 0.4 points and one seat, and now stand at 26.2%. The Liberals are down 0.2 points to 24.4% and the Greens are down three to 12.1%.

The Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada with 36.8%, down 0.1 points. The Conservatives follow with 31.4%, up 0.1. The NDP is down 0.5 points to 23.4% and the Greens are up 0.5 to 6.7%.

The Conservatives are at 58.7% in Alberta, down 0.1 points. But, they gain a seat and are back to a sweep. The Liberals are down 0.2 points to 17.0% and lose their seat. The NDP is up 0.1 to 10.9% and the Greens are down 0.1 points to 10.3%.

In the Prairies, the Conservatives are down 0.6 points to 46.2%, the NDP is up 0.2 points to 23.0%, and the Liberals are up 0.1 to 21.8%. The Greens are up 0.3 points to 7.5%.

Finally, in the North the Liberals are down 0.1 to 33.3%, the Conservatives are down 0.1 to 29.9%, and the NDP is up 0.1 to 27.2%.

Overall, the NDP has performed best in the last 11 days, gaining ground in 5 out of 7 regions and holding steady in Quebec. Their seat gains in British Columbia and Ontario are hugely important, as are their support gains in those provinces. The big drop in Atlantic Canada, however, is worrisome.

The Bloc had a good 11 days, gaining a little and expanding their lead over the Liberals to 14.2 points.

Both the Liberals and Conservatives had a rough time. The Tories lost a seat, and a lot of ground, in British Columbia, but made it up with a seat gain in Alberta. They lost quite a bit in the Prairies, Ontario, and Quebec, the last two areas hurting them most. The Liberals did not see any huge losses, but had their support nibbled away in all regions but the Prairies. The seat loss in Ontario does not bode well for the future.

59 comments:

  1. Thank you for not being biased. That is why I enjoy reading your commentary on polling data.

    It's nice to see... thanks again.

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  2. Paul Wells sees Iggy backing down or an election:

    http://www2.macleans.ca/2010/04/28/futures-market/

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  3. That is right in line with the polls really.

    No majority for anybody in sight !!

    So it really depends on who wants to force the issue?

    Still with that kind of result will Stevie go for dissolution over the papers ??

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  4. Peter as with all things Stephen Harper is in control.

    If he wants to reach an agreement with the opposition he will.

    OR he'll simply let the two weeks lapse, declare the vote one of confidence, and wait until somebody else backs down.


    At which point I have a feeling Speaker Miliken would resign from his post and possibly from the HOC.

    Then a CPC speaker will be elected who will rule all future motions of this kind out of order.

    As I said, its up to Harper.

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  5. As the CPC is a minority, it is unlikely the opposition would allow the election of a Conservative speaker after Milliken was ignored.

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  6. Shadow,

    Why would Milliken step down? It's not his fault the CPC is ignoring his ruling and strong-arming democratic institutions. If anything people would probably rally around him as one of the few sane voices left in the House of Commons.

    And there would be no way the Opposition would allow a CPC speaker, as Eric said. Not after a blow up like that.

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  7. Eric the election of a speaker is traditionally a free vote with a higher degree of cross party support due to the secret ballot.

    If it comes down to an NDP MP or a CPC MP on the final ballot its possible that enough (7) Liberals would go with the gov't backbencher.

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  8. Éric's right. There's no way we'll see a CPC speaker without a CPC majority.

    The recent polling has illustrated an interesting shift in Canadians' electoral preferences. In the 2006 election, it was fairly clear that Canadians wanted a minority Conservative government. They were done with the Liberals, but didn't want to trust the new party with a majority. The 2008 election only reinforced that they weren't yet done with the experiement.

    But recent polls suggest they are. Unfortunately for voters, it's also the best option they see.

    It would appear that most Canadians no longer particularly want a Conservative minority. Howerver, a large majority of Canadians also want Stephen Harper nowhere near a majority government. But at the same time, a large majority of Canadians don't want Michael Ignatieff anywhere near the PMO.

    This supports Rex Murphy's recent observation that the best predictor of future polling improvements for either of the two big parties is the strength of the other party. The Tories get a boost if the Liberals get too close to them, while the Liberals get a boost if the Tories get too far ahead.

    It's like clockwork.

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  9. Cory if Speaker Miliken's ruling is ignored then he has lost the moral authority to continue in his position and would most likely feel honour bound to step aside.

    Given that being speaker is his life's work its also likely that he'd retire at that point.

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  10. Baseless speculation.

    Anyway, as it has been pointed out, the Opposition would not allow a Conservative speaker to be elected if Milliken was ignored and for some reason stepped down. Even with a secret ballot, the Opposition MPs would not be so stupid as to side with the government after it ran rough-shod over the rights of Parliament.

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  11. Ira
    However, a large majority of Canadians also want Stephen Harper nowhere near a majority government.

    About 70% apparently. Re Iggy I think you may be right but at the moment he's what we've got. Could they cram in a leadership convention before the Fall election?? I doubt it. Can the party get it's act together before Fall? definitely.

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  12. Eric it is speculation but not baseless.

    Multiple media commentators such as Paul Wells and Don Martin have suggested that Harper will simply ignore the speaker's ruling.

    Our system is built on confidence and Miliken would indeed find it difficult to continue.

    If as you say the Conservatives have just run rough-shod over the rights of parliament then who would want the job when the exact same thing would likely happen a few months later ?

    7 spooked Liberals who just want the issue to go away lest it provoke an election are all it takes.


    Regardless, its up to Harper. I trust his judgement and if he finds a suitable compromise then so be it.

    If not the opposition is powerless at this point. With Ignatieff at Dion levels of support they're going to be too spooked to vote non-confidence.

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  13. Earl: Paul Wells sees Iggy backing down or an election.

    Ignatieff isn't backing down; he's running to the same timetable he's had for months. He doesn't want an election now, but he's never wanted an election now. The music stops in the fall. If push comes to shove, though, the Liberals appear to be ready to go to the voters.

    We're hearing tales of sweetness and light all round in determining a document release process. The Grits may be low in the polls but the Tories don't tower above them. If Harper requests dissolution rather than release the documents with reasonable safeguards now, it won't play well on the hustings. A Tory majority is hard to envision without taking substances not endorsed by party stalwarts.

    That's the critical point. Harper's options are a majority or the opposition benches, and when he's sitting across the aisle the documents will come out. The surmised skeletons will appear in an arc drawn by Donolo and the tale will be long in the telling. Harper is better off to grit his teeth and accede to a single ugly dump. The Tories seem to have recognized this reality and they're now looking for the best release terms they can get.

    Of course, it may turn out that there's nothing there and the Prime Minister is truly only concerned about national security. Would you like a side order of unicorns and rainbows with that?

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  14. I'd be willing to bet if either the Conservatives or Liberals had a leadership convention this summer they would be able to win a majority government.

    Ignatieff and the Liberals support was near majority territory last spring and when Dion became leader in 2006 support for the Liberals went way up as well.

    All parties should have annual leadership reviews like they do in Alberta.

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  15. It doesn't matter what the parties do. The people don't like either leader.

    When we next have an election, it will produce an unsatisfying result all around. Which party pulls away after that will be determined by which finds a new leader fastest and whom they select.

    If either party keeps their leader after the next election, it will lose the subsequent election very badly.

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  16. http://www.cbc.ca/politics/story/2010/04/30/politics-voter-preference-leger-poll.html

    CPC lead is 11

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  17. Trouble with that one Earl is it's an Internet poll and thus significantly less accurate.

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  18. John take a look at the link Earl provided.

    In this high stakes game of chicken I think its clear who holds the upper hand.

    As I said, its up to Harper.

    Either he'll find a compromise that satisfies his concerns or he'll simply ignore the speaker's ruling and the opposition will howl in outrage but do nothing.


    PS - Anyone have any thoughts on what's behind the horrible Liberal numbers ?

    Is the culture war backfiring on Iggy? Is the focus on torture and Jaffer at the expense of the economy/jobs making the public look elsewhere?

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  19. 99 + 32 =131

    More than the Tories 126

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  20. --- Trouble with that one Earl is it's an Internet poll and thus significantly less accurate.

    Many of the pollsters, including Angus-Reid, use internet polling. I actually answered this one.

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  21. Shadow,

    Your consistency is absolutely breath taking.

    You see this Leger poll out today and you immediately take it to be the gospel truth.

    You see a IR, or AR, poll and you again take it to be 100% accurate.

    You see an environics poll with a Liberal lead and you dismiss it out of hand.

    Frank Graves poll, again dismissed because he is obviously a Liberal partisan hack.

    HD, you don't put any stock in them either.

    Somebody raises questions about the Leger Internet push poll and it's accuracy, and you once again immediately say they are wrong and the poll is 100% accurate.

    I respect and admire your consistency, and analytical skills.

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  22. Ira
    Which party pulls away after that will be determined by which finds a new leader fastest and whom they select.

    Which could be the death of STevie. eh?

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  23. Eric

    Internet polls are notoriously inaccurate

    I'm surprised !!

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  24. Internet polls, done correctly, are not "notoriously" inaccurate. Angus-Reid, who has been the most accurate pollster since 2008, uses internet polling.

    If you're thinking about online polls on the Globe and Mail front page, yes, those are inaccurate.

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  25. Eric I find Leger's prompting method to be of interest and worthy of discussion.

    Any thoughts on their assertion that modern campaigns focus on the party leaders and that including the name of the party leader when doing the poll simulates that environment most accurately ?

    The craziest thing is that the NDP and Liberal spread in that poll is so small.

    A good chunk of the media narrative, especially after being primed by Nick Clegg, may be:

    "Can Layton beat Ignatieff's performance at the ballot box for the first time in history ??"

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  26. It's an interesting way to go about it, but who knows what effect it has.

    I'll have a post about this poll once the details are available, if you'd all like to save commentary.

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  27. A good chunk of the media narrative, especially after being primed by Nick Clegg, may be:

    More like can Clegg finish any better than third??

    'cause that's where he will finish !!

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  28. 49 steps I trust Eric's weighting system:

    http://threehundredeight.blogspot.com/2010/04/new-weights-for-polling-firms.html

    AR, IR, and Leger are some of the highest rated.

    Topline numbers for EKOS and everything after I ignore, although I do pay attention to change in support from their last poll.

    It has nothing to do with who favours who, it has to do with who's most accurate.

    I'd advise you to stop giving yourself false comfort by putting so much stock in the pollsters you mentioned and wake up to the reality that is the accuracy of IR, AR, Leger.

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  29. I don't trust internet polling simply because of its implied bias. Not that it has bias towards a party, but it does have a sample bias; those that answer interest pollsters are generally younger, more open/modern, etc.

    For pretty much every internet pollster I've seen, the third party is always punching above its weight. Before Clegg's rise, the Lib Dems in every AR poll and a couple of the other internet pollsters had Labour lower, Lib Dems higher, than the other pollsters.

    So, while I can see the numbers existing, I have to take into account how its influenced.

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  30. Shadow,

    Of course your version of reality is always 100% accurate.

    Every assertion you present as a fact again 100% accurate.

    All your baseless, and idle speculation, 100% accurate.

    In fact everything you assert is always 100% accurate.

    I am glad you are on this board to straighten out anybody, who strays of your version of the truth.

    I am glad you are here to inform everybody what reality is.

    Shadow, you are a font of information, and facts.

    I bow down to you. Thanks for straightening me out.

    I will never again question your obviously 100% accuracy in everything you say.

    How silly of me to believe that Master Shadow, could be wrong about anything.

    Thanks, Shadow

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  31. Volkov, if that were the case, the Conservatives should not be doing better than they do in other polls.

    Angus-Reid and this Leger poll has the Greens very low and the Conservatives high. If the average respondent is younger and more modern, that should not be the case.

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  32. If the average respondent is younger and more modern, that should not be the case.

    Sorry Eric that's a fallacy. All the poll says its that some people know how to use the net, not that they are young or "modern" !

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  33. Well, that's what Volkov said.

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  34. Eric,

    The same thing happens in the UK polls. The Conservatives stay relatively on average scores, while Labour loses steam to the Lib Dems.

    It's possibly that it affects more of the split-up left wing than the unified right. I wouldn't know how to explain it without some research, but there is something with the internet polling that benefits the third party at the expense of the second party, or the secondary left-wing party at the expense of the primary. It happens every single time.

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  35. Shadow: [T]ake a look at the [Leger poll] link Earl provided.

    In this high stakes game of chicken I think its clear who holds the upper hand.


    Yes, Michael Ignatieff.

    Harper needs a majority. Ignatieff doesn't even need a plurality. We will see a Grit government before the snow flies. If the Tories are hell-bent on destruction we could even see one before Dominion Day.

    The interesting question is how many Green MPs will be facing it.

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  36. John you really think so ?

    That Michael Ignatieff could get a worse result than Dion and stick around to become PM ?

    (Regardless its been shown that he has no power to whip his party, individual Liberals will be out for themselves after seeing the Leger poll).

    In the UK Nick Clegg made it a condition that if he were to support Labour they would need to fire Gordon Brown.

    Back when our coalition was forming one of the mistakes people pointed out was having Stephane Dion as leader.


    Right now Ignatieff has got to be asking himself whether he can stay on as Liberal leader or whether there would be a coup that would put Bob Rae in charge of the coalition.

    Or even if he wanted to stand up to Harper whether he could get all his members to stand with him.

    Its been documented that the Liberals miss more votes than any other party. That they break ranks with their leader on whipped votes more than any other party (actually it just doesn't happen in other parties!).

    Or that they embarrasingly vote the wrong way.

    John i'm frankly amazed that you can look at this Leger poll and insist that Ignatieff has the upper hand when all the power in Ottawa rests with Harper.

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  37. In the next federal election, their will be that 19 out of 20 thing and the NDP Jack Layton will be our next Prime Minister.

    Canadians want Canada back from CORPORATE CANADA and they will not get that from Conservative/Republican/Reform Stephen Harper or Conservative/Republican/Reform Michael Ignatieff. VOTE NDP across Canada!!!

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  38. John:
    Ignatieff doesn't even need a plurality.

    Exactly John. Unlike the major Tory protagonist here you can see reality. All Iggy needs is enough seats when combined with the NDP to overcome Harper's total. Plus if Harper comes in with a reduced minority as all the polls contend Harper is a done man.

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  39. Sorry guys/gals, the coalition would still need those Bloc members to form a govt. And that fear is what will give PMSH his majority.

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  40. Really happy you finally say the light and took the lib seat away in AB.
    And even Justin's visit today, and support for the oilsands wont help.

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  41. The Liberals lost their seat in Alberta because they dropped 0.2 points. If they had dropped 0.1 points, they would have kept it.

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  42. Sorry guys/gals, the coalition would still need those Bloc members to form a govt.

    Sorry Mary but that is completely wrong.

    Harper has a minority and doesn't need the Bloc as long as the coalition votes his way.

    Any minority will require support from other parties to rule. Which party members support a Govt bill is impossible to predict but raising that "separatist" spectre is disingenuous and nothing more than Fear Mongering.

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  43. Hi Peter:

    You are assuming that the Bloc would support the Coalition. Harper would meet the House and have to be defeated. Any PM has that right. Harper will no doubt exercise that right.

    Secondly Iggy has shown a reluctance to enter into a coalition with the NDP. Harper will get his majority because of people like you and John and DL who want a coalition. Many liberals do not want an unelected coalition.

    If the Liberals and NDP want a coalition let them run on that platform. The truth is they are afraid to run on a platform of a coalition or accord or even support for each other because that would give PMSH a majority. You know it and so do they. Instead you want to deceive the Canadian people and steal an election, while thwarting the will of the people. It won't happen because PMSH will run against the coalition.

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  44. You are assuming that the Bloc would support the Coalition.

    Nice spin try, won't work.

    Because NO declared coalition is necessary in a Parliamentary democracy.

    Minority Govt's make arrangements to get certain bills passed. Other bills they know won't pass don't get proposed.

    As to who the Bloc or the NDP support that's up to them, not to you or Harper.

    But to try and fight an election on the "coalition" argument is to throw centuries of tradition and history and rulings out.

    Which might appeal to the Rabid Right but not to the people !

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  45. If PMSH gets more seats than Mr Z, and wants to try to form the govt, he will have to get an agreement from the other coalition opposition. If he doesn't do that, the GG must allow PMSH to govern. But, with the way things are going, it would not surprise me to see Layton get more seats than Mr Z.
    I would like to see a poll of all 308 ridings. In Alberta the conservatives won every riding by a huge majority of votes. It would be impossible for the libs to raise their votes by over 5-10 thousand in any riding to win. And, with the federal lib agm or whatever in Lethbridge this wkend, they had to cancel a charter bus from Edmonton as they could not get 35 liberals to attend. And how about Justin praising the oilsands in Alberta. Will that make the news back east.

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  46. Note: I despise the use of derogatory names and terms for parties and party leaders. Use of them in the future will get a comment rejected.

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  47. You know Eric just once it would be nice to see the people here drop their partisan bickering and actually discuss some of the countries problems.

    I know it's hard but do you think they could try ??

    Like how to defeat the Bloc and stop this string of minority Govt's??

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  48. The Bloc isn't a problem. The reason for the Bloc is the problem.

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  49. The Harris poll for Saturday's Daily Mail put Prime Minister Gordon Brown's party on 24 percent, with the Conservatives on 33 percent and the Liberal Democrats on 32 percent.

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  50. The Bloc isn't a problem. The reason for the Bloc is the problem.

    Whichever way we want to phrase it the Bloc's seats are the problem.

    i:e; How to get the mainstream parties back into those seats.

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  51. Phrasing is important. The Bloc itself is the democratic voice of Quebecers. They aren't happy with the way they fit into federation, and want change.

    The way for the federalist parties to re-gain those seats is to meet the national aspirations of Quebecers.

    Reducing Quebec's proportion of seats in the House, for example, is not a way to curry favour with Quebecers.

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  52. The way for the federalist parties to re-gain those seats is to meet the national aspirations of Quebecer's.

    Agreed and that is the apparent stumbling block. So is there a solution? Or are we stuck indefinitely with this problem?

    For that matter has any of the other parties actually listened to what Quebecer's want ??

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  53. Canadians need to get used to the idea that at least 30% of Quebecers are guaranteed to vote for the Bloc, because sovereigntists cannot see themselves in the federalist parties.

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  54. Canadians need to get used to the idea that at least 30% of Quebecers are guaranteed to vote for the Bloc, because sovereigntists cannot see themselves in the federalist parties.

    Maybe but all my experience with them is that they are pretty pragmatic. I'll grant there is a hard core but the size of the core is pretty hard to fathom.

    The other question is what, if anything, have they gained by voting Bloc that a mainstream party couldn't provide?

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  55. There is a long list of Bloc accomplishments since 1993, but the importance of having a voice that truly speaks for you can't be discounted.

    As a Liberal, if you had a Conservative MP who did things for your riding, I'm sure you wouldn't be happy about it.

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  56. but the importance of having a voice that truly speaks for you can't be discounted.

    Agreed on that for sure

    if you had a Conservative MP who did things for your riding, I'm sure you wouldn't be happy about it

    If I had an MP who actually did something for this riding, no matter what flavour, I would be pleasantly surprised !!!!!!

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  57. Shadow,

    Thanks for writing the epitaph of this Conservative government:

    "If not the opposition is powerless at this point. With Ignatieff at Dion levels of support they're going to be too spooked to vote non-confidence."

    Want to bet? See you on the opposition benches.

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  58. Peter,

    "Whichever way we want to phrase it the Bloc's seats are the problem.

    i:e; How to get the mainstream parties back into those seats."

    Perhaps dropping this "le fruit n'est pas mûr" B.S. and finally reaching a political accommodation with Quebec -- which is long overdue...

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  59. finally reaching a political accommodation with Quebec -- which is long overdue...

    Yeah I have to agree. Still that is also the "power base" for a lot of Quebec politicians so getting it would be very difficult.

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