Thursday, April 29, 2010

New EKOS Poll: 5.3-pt Conservative Lead

A new biased EKOS poll shows the Conservatives up and the Liberals down to disastrous lows. Money well spent, Liberals!Compared to EKOS's poll last week, the Conservatives have gained 0.2 points and now stand at 31.9%. The Liberals are down 0.5 to 26.6%, while the New Democrats are up 1.3 points to 17.6%.

Many of the results of this poll echo that of Harris-Decima, indicating that perhaps the NDP has indeed gotten a boost.

The Greens are down 1.7 points to 10.9%, the Bloc Québécois is up 0.2 to 9.7% at the national level, and "Other" is up 0.6 points. You'll see below some interesting information about the "Other" category.

And while I still have your attention, commenter AJR79 don't skip over last night's blog post.

In Ontario, the Conservatives are up three points to 36.0%, and now hold the lead. The Liberals are down one point to 34.2% and the NDP is up one to 17.7%. That is a good number for them. The Liberals lead in Toronto with 40.2% and also in Ottawa with 43.1%. They've seen a 15 point bump in the capital, though.

In Quebec, the Bloc is up one to 38.5%, while the Liberals are down big, dropping four points to 19.3%. The Conservatives are up two to 16% and the NDP is up three to 12.6%. In Montreal, the Bloc leads with 36.0%.

In British Columbia, the NDP is up one and leads with 28.6% (much like the HD poll). The Conservatives are down seven points to 28.4%, while the Liberals are up one to 22.7%. The Greens are up three to 16.1%. The NDP has moved into the lead in Vancouver with 32.5%, as the Tories are down nine points there.

Elsewhere, the Conservatives have a narrow lead with 34.9% in Atlantic Canada and a not-so-narrow lead in Alberta with 54.4%. There was a lot of movement in the Prairies, where the Conservatives drop six to 38.2%, the Liberals are up five to 27.5%, and the NDP is up six to 23.8%.

The Conservatives would win 60 seats in the West, 47 in Ontario, 6 in Quebec, and 12 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 125.

The Liberals would win 18 seats in the West, 44 in Ontario, 14 in Quebec, and 18 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 94.

The Bloc wins 53 seats in Quebec.

The NDP wins 17 seats in the West, 15 in Ontario, 2 in Quebec, and 2 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 36.

EKOS also looked into 'second choice', which I absolutely love.

For Conservatives, their second choice is no choice at all: 44% said none. Next was the Liberals with 25.3% and then the NDP with 12.9%. For many Conservatives, there really isn't an alternative.

The NDP is the Liberals' second choice, at 36.3%. Next was none (24.8%) and then the Conservatives (20.2%). This is an indication that the party's supporters are leaning more towards the left.

For New Democrats, the Liberals are the second choice (35.3%), followed by none (24.4%) and the Greens (21.2%).

For Greens, it is 33.1% none, 23.5% Liberals, and 19.9% NDP. This sort of goes against the notion that a lot of conservatives make-up the Green Party.

For the Bloc, it is 37.6% none, 23.1% NDP, and 14.1% Greens. The traditional federalist parties simply don't factor into a Bloc supporter's mind.

Now, the Other. This is the interesting thing. For these supporters, 43.3% have no second choice and 23.4% choose the Greens. This is a big indication that 'Other' support is, indeed, "none of the above". You would expect CHP supporters to go Conservative, and Communist/Marxist supporters to go to the NDP, etc. But instead, these respondents simply don't want to support the major parties.

This doesn't necessarily mean the "Other" result is false. Perhaps these people will actually vote for some other party come election time. More likely, though, is that they will not vote at all or will make a decision come election time.

If we took the extra 2.3 points (as the other parties usually get around 1%) and treated them as people who won't vote, the national support level moves to 32.6% for the Conservatives, 27.2% for the Liberals, 18.0% for the NDP, and 11.2% for the Greens.

The poll also looked at the approval ratings for the leaders of the three major parties, and also the American President. Let's start with him. Fully 70% of Canadians approve of Barack Obama's performance, compared to only 12% who disapprove. Move to Canada, Barack!

For Stephen Harper, the split is 33% to 49%. So, a negative result. His worst approval rating came in Quebec (23%) and his best was in Alberta (52%).

For Michael Ignatieff, the split was 20% to 51%, an even more negative result. His worst came in Alberta (16%) and his best came in Atlantic Canada (25%). Can you see the bias inherent in the system?

For Jack Layton, 43% of Canadians approve versus 26% who don't. So, a positive rating for the NDP leader. His worst came in Alberta (33%) and his best in Quebec (50%).

They also broke it down by party support. Harper is safe, with 79% of Conservatives approving and only 9% disapproving. Layton is also safe, with 69% of New Democrats approving and 11% disapproving of his performance.

Ignatieff still has a lot to do to demonstrate to his own supporters that he is the leader for them. While 45% approve of his performance, 30% don't.

29 comments:

  1. 96 + 34 = 130

    Still more than the Tories.

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  2. I do not believe this poll at all.

    The conservatives said last week that Frank Graves was biased and was falsifying his poll results.

    Teneyke, informed the nation last week about Graves.

    Graves, was stung by this biting criticism, so he figured that he would falsify results this week toward the conservatives.

    This poll is obviously an outlier intended to placate the CPC.

    I hope conservatives are all happy now.

    I expect an apology and full retraction of all their slanderous statements against Graves.

    I hope next week, Graves gives us a more accurate picture, and tries not to sooth the feelings of emotionally erratic conservatives like Teneyke, and Soudas.

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  3. I would like them to ask the question of which leader people would like to see be Prime Minister, probably with just two option.

    Obviously most people don't want Jack Layton to be Prime Minister but they still like him. Same might go for Ignatieff, people don't personally like him but it doesn't mean they don't want him to be Prime Minsiter.

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  4. It's interesting that Layton has a significantly higher approval rating among LIBERAL supporters than does Ignatieff!!

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  5. Also, if this poll were actually the results of the next election, the NDP would get more than 17 seats out west. In the last election, the Tories took 45% in BC and the NDP 26%. If that 19 point gap turns to a 1% NDP lead, then the NDP is certain to gain about 5 seats or more in BC alone - they would keep their current 9 and add Surrey North, North Vancouver Island, Kamloops and probably Newton-North Delta and Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows - and maybe Nanaimo-Alberni and Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca as well.

    The NDP would also hold on to Edmonton Strathcona and Western Arctic and would pick up two in Saskatchewan - for a western total of 22 seats!

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  6. "A new biased EKOS poll..."

    Very clever Eric. ;P

    There's so much cannibalisation between the Greens, the NDP, and the Liberals, it suggest that modern Conservative pluralities are based heavily off of the new larger splits between these voters more than anythnig else.

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  7. @Eric: Remember that the majority of your readers are lurkers rather than commenters. Don't try to please us in the peanut gallery too much, or you might turn off the casual visitors.;-)

    @PoscStudent: If Dippers or Greens were interested in strategic voting, we would have done it by now.

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  8. DL,

    If you don't like Eric's results and think they're wrong then go create your own blog.

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  9. This poll is a lie. It's designed to show Conservatives that Frank Graves isn't partisan. It's false people! Don't believe it!

    Lol. Anyways, I like Kevin Sutton's use of the word "cannibalization." It's apt to describe the situation on the left. It's another reason why I don't see the NDP ever becoming an effective national party - they'll just end up like the Liberals. Maybe mergers are the answer...

    Or maybe not. Still, despite the low result, there are a few things to keep up hope. The competitive result in Ontario, the near-tie in BC, an alright result in Atlantic Canada (whats with that low NDP result?), etc.

    That leadership poll I'm not impressed with, however. 45-30 spread? Tsk. I suppose I can't complain to much, however; it does leave 25% DK/DC, which is enough breathing space. Still, it's a tad unsettling. Iggy really needs to make his internal moves public. So many people forget the wonders we've been doing within the Party.


    So... anyone want an election now?

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  10. Graves is covering his tracks !

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  11. "If you don't like Eric's results and think they're wrong then go create your own blog."

    Calm down! I'm not "rejecting" Eric's results. I'm just commenting on his projection. That is why we are all here - to COMMENT on the polls and projections. Eric could easily just post his projection and not make it possible for anyone to comment on anything. I assume that he allows comments because he welcomes input from people. I'm not trying to dismiss his entire system, i'm just saying that I get different results when I look at these numbers. Its called DIALOGUE!

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  12. "So... anyone want an election now?"

    I do! I do! (my tail is wagging)

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  13. leonsp,

    No, they wouldn't, not will polls. The point of strategic voting is voting strategically to block the Conservatives by backing candidates you know can win. It doesn't mean it'll show up in polls.

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  14. Of course! But if the Liberals would've been up, it would've been proof of his guilt.

    So either way he's guilty.

    And your head, goes spinnin' round, round, round, 'cause you found what you've been dreamin' of!

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  15. Shadow,

    Lol, I hope you're not serious. I hope you're just making a fairly funny joke. XD

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  16. Volkov perhaps future elections will be fought between the opposition for their share of power in a coalition ?

    I gotta say though that Jack Layton has amazing popularity numbers.

    We really, really could see a Nick Clegg moment here where everybody is turned off with the major parties but is turned off with the Liberals MORE.

    NDP gets a flood of people fleeing the Liberals as they enter an electoral death spiral.

    As long as we have the same strategic composition in the next house (CPC + 1 of 3= legislation) I bet Harper will stay on for a great deal of time, until a coalition takes him out.

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  17. we don't need a "coalition" to take Harper out. We could simply substitute the current unstable Tory minority government that has no official accord with any other party for an unstable Liberal minority government with no official accord with any other party. What's the difference?

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  18. Shadow,

    That's not impossible, though I think Layton's "Clegg factor" faded awhile ago, in all honesty. His first big push was when he brought the NDP from 8% to 15%, and that was in 2004. Clegg manages his score because he's a brand new novelty, but even now its starting to wear thin...

    I could see a coalition coming to fruition soon, in all honesty. Lowball Liberal numbers, and moderately good Dipper numbers could lead to it. Not something I'd enjoy, personally. But, I won't give up hope yet.

    And here's something funny to cheer everyone up, courtesy MacKay Cartoons.

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  19. DL the NDP aren't anti-Harper saints.

    Like every political party they act in their own interest, even if it means keeping Harper around to save their own skin.

    All politicians like power. Judy Alphabet and Tom Clark had a similiar exchange in her exit interview about how as Mayor she would have more power to affect real change.

    We saw last time that Layton wanted a ministry (although not finance or industry said the Liberals!).

    36+ NDP MPs aren't going to sit around as fourth party backbenchers doing nothing when real power awaits their grasp.


    DL I really hope your rhetoric is just strategic spin. Just you recognizing that talk of a coalition helps Harper and trying to play it down.

    If that's your honest to God analysis then I think you have a naive sense of the NDP.

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  20. You're the only one talking about "coalitions". I'm saying that after the next election, the NDP will agree to virtually anything that removes evil Harper from power. Its as simple as that. Unless Harper wins a majority in the next election, any Throne Speech he brings in WILL be defeated and then the GG will have NO ALTERNATIVE but to see who else can command the confidence of the house. Its as simple as that.

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  21. Hey DL last summer when the Liberals were riding high in the polls and could have knocked "evil Harper" out of power did Jack Layton back down ?

    NDP propped up Harper to save their own skin ?

    You don't say.

    After the 2006 election why didn't the NDP sit with the Liberals to block a Harper gov't ?


    I think its clear that you, DL, hate Harper more than your own party does and its clouding your judgement.

    With numbers like these its 100% clear that the NDP would demand 2 or 3 ministries given that they would represent 1/4 of the seats in the Liberal-NDP coalition under PM Bob Rae.

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  22. After the next election if Harper does not have a majority, can he not go to the GG, and ask for an indefinite prorogation.

    Harper is appointing the next GG.

    Probably a brown nosed toady.

    So if Harper gets his way, after the next election might he prorogue with the intention of never recalling parliament?

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  23. First of all, after the 2006 election, the NDP didn't have enough seats to keep Martin in power single-handedly and as you may recall, martin announced his resignation on election night - so it was not even an option.

    An election last fall might have led to a Tory majority and the Liberals were on their hands and knees begging the NDP to get them out of the jam they got themselves into. This is a different situation, the NDP and the Liberals have much more money than last September and the Tories have been hobbled by scandal. "Winning conditions" for an election now exist. All we need is to prevent a Tory majority and the Harper is politically DEAD.

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  24. With numbers like these its 100% clear that the NDP would demand 2 or 3 ministries given that they would represent 1/4 of the seats in the Liberal-NDP coalition under PM Bob Rae.

    Nothing unusual I see, on day 2 after the thwarting the of palace coup.

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  25. 49 Parliament has to meet at least once a year. The GG would within her/his rights to deny an indefinite prorogation. I'm sure your suggestion was made in jest.

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  26. Where do you see how the parties ranked each day of the polling period?

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  27. PS,

    Kady O'Malley does an analysis column every week on the ekos numbers. Really it seems that she just likes to make some fun of it.

    Anyway, this weeks:

    http://www.cbc.ca/politics/insidepolitics/2010/04/ekos-of-the-week-beware-the-jackerwock.html

    It always contains a link near the top to the data tables as presented by the CBC.

    This weeks:
    https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cbc.ca%2Fnews%2Fpdf%2Fvote-intention-tables-100429.pdf


    Conversely ekos always posts a pdf on their site. It has some shiny graphs (but not quite all the same breakdowns that the CBC data tables have)

    http://www.ekospolitics.com/

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  28. I couldn't find where EKOS reports on surveys declined because they were being conducted by EKOS and the question where the people are asked if they believe EKOS is a Liberal biased pollster.

    Also a follow up question to the overstated Green support might be: Really?

    Before you could take the CPC EKOS numbers and add 3.6% as shown in the last proof of polling accuracy. Now it would be closer to 5%. The Liberal support was accurate but now would be likely overstated by elimination the EKOS based refusals that would be strongly non-liberal.

    36-38% CPC to 25-28% Liberal. Not quite a majority but clearly no Liberal reason to force an election. If the Liberals actually thought they could get close to a 100 seats there would be an election next week.

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