Thursday, April 29, 2010

New EKOS Poll: 5.3-pt Conservative Lead

A new biased EKOS poll shows the Conservatives up and the Liberals down to disastrous lows. Money well spent, Liberals!Compared to EKOS's poll last week, the Conservatives have gained 0.2 points and now stand at 31.9%. The Liberals are down 0.5 to 26.6%, while the New Democrats are up 1.3 points to 17.6%.

Many of the results of this poll echo that of Harris-Decima, indicating that perhaps the NDP has indeed gotten a boost.

The Greens are down 1.7 points to 10.9%, the Bloc Québécois is up 0.2 to 9.7% at the national level, and "Other" is up 0.6 points. You'll see below some interesting information about the "Other" category.

And while I still have your attention, commenter AJR79 don't skip over last night's blog post.

In Ontario, the Conservatives are up three points to 36.0%, and now hold the lead. The Liberals are down one point to 34.2% and the NDP is up one to 17.7%. That is a good number for them. The Liberals lead in Toronto with 40.2% and also in Ottawa with 43.1%. They've seen a 15 point bump in the capital, though.

In Quebec, the Bloc is up one to 38.5%, while the Liberals are down big, dropping four points to 19.3%. The Conservatives are up two to 16% and the NDP is up three to 12.6%. In Montreal, the Bloc leads with 36.0%.

In British Columbia, the NDP is up one and leads with 28.6% (much like the HD poll). The Conservatives are down seven points to 28.4%, while the Liberals are up one to 22.7%. The Greens are up three to 16.1%. The NDP has moved into the lead in Vancouver with 32.5%, as the Tories are down nine points there.

Elsewhere, the Conservatives have a narrow lead with 34.9% in Atlantic Canada and a not-so-narrow lead in Alberta with 54.4%. There was a lot of movement in the Prairies, where the Conservatives drop six to 38.2%, the Liberals are up five to 27.5%, and the NDP is up six to 23.8%.

The Conservatives would win 60 seats in the West, 47 in Ontario, 6 in Quebec, and 12 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 125.

The Liberals would win 18 seats in the West, 44 in Ontario, 14 in Quebec, and 18 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 94.

The Bloc wins 53 seats in Quebec.

The NDP wins 17 seats in the West, 15 in Ontario, 2 in Quebec, and 2 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 36.

EKOS also looked into 'second choice', which I absolutely love.

For Conservatives, their second choice is no choice at all: 44% said none. Next was the Liberals with 25.3% and then the NDP with 12.9%. For many Conservatives, there really isn't an alternative.

The NDP is the Liberals' second choice, at 36.3%. Next was none (24.8%) and then the Conservatives (20.2%). This is an indication that the party's supporters are leaning more towards the left.

For New Democrats, the Liberals are the second choice (35.3%), followed by none (24.4%) and the Greens (21.2%).

For Greens, it is 33.1% none, 23.5% Liberals, and 19.9% NDP. This sort of goes against the notion that a lot of conservatives make-up the Green Party.

For the Bloc, it is 37.6% none, 23.1% NDP, and 14.1% Greens. The traditional federalist parties simply don't factor into a Bloc supporter's mind.

Now, the Other. This is the interesting thing. For these supporters, 43.3% have no second choice and 23.4% choose the Greens. This is a big indication that 'Other' support is, indeed, "none of the above". You would expect CHP supporters to go Conservative, and Communist/Marxist supporters to go to the NDP, etc. But instead, these respondents simply don't want to support the major parties.

This doesn't necessarily mean the "Other" result is false. Perhaps these people will actually vote for some other party come election time. More likely, though, is that they will not vote at all or will make a decision come election time.

If we took the extra 2.3 points (as the other parties usually get around 1%) and treated them as people who won't vote, the national support level moves to 32.6% for the Conservatives, 27.2% for the Liberals, 18.0% for the NDP, and 11.2% for the Greens.

The poll also looked at the approval ratings for the leaders of the three major parties, and also the American President. Let's start with him. Fully 70% of Canadians approve of Barack Obama's performance, compared to only 12% who disapprove. Move to Canada, Barack!

For Stephen Harper, the split is 33% to 49%. So, a negative result. His worst approval rating came in Quebec (23%) and his best was in Alberta (52%).

For Michael Ignatieff, the split was 20% to 51%, an even more negative result. His worst came in Alberta (16%) and his best came in Atlantic Canada (25%). Can you see the bias inherent in the system?

For Jack Layton, 43% of Canadians approve versus 26% who don't. So, a positive rating for the NDP leader. His worst came in Alberta (33%) and his best in Quebec (50%).

They also broke it down by party support. Harper is safe, with 79% of Conservatives approving and only 9% disapproving. Layton is also safe, with 69% of New Democrats approving and 11% disapproving of his performance.

Ignatieff still has a lot to do to demonstrate to his own supporters that he is the leader for them. While 45% approve of his performance, 30% don't.