Saturday, April 24, 2010

New IR Poll: 6-pt Conservative Lead

Ipsos-Reid has a new poll out, showing some small movement but nothing earth shattering.Compared to Ipsos-Reid's last poll taken in early April, the Conservatives have dropped two points to 35% while the Liberals are up two to 29%. The New Democrats are up one to 16% and the Greens are stable at 10%.

These are small movements, but seem to indicate that the recent scandals in the news with Jaffer and Guergis have only put a small dent in the party's standings.

Where it does seem to have hurt is in Ontario, where the Conservatives are down four points to 35%. The Liberals are up three to a very good 39%. The NDP is up one to 15%.

In Quebec, the Bloc Québécois is down seven points to 35%, but still well ahead of the Liberals at 24% (up one). The Conservatives are steady at 20% and the NDP is up four to 11%.

In British Columbia, the Conservatives have dropped seven to 39% while the NDP is up seven to 27%. The Liberals are also up, five points to 24%. The Greens are down four to 10%.

In the other regions, the Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada with 34% while the NDP has dropped ten points there. The Conservatives are well ahead in Alberta with 61% and in the Prairies with 53%, though that latter result is a drop of six.

The Conservatives win 67 seats in the West, 40 seats in Ontario, 9 in Quebec, and 9 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 125.

The Liberals win 16 seats in the West, 54 in Ontario, 16 in Quebec, and 19 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 105.

The Bloc wins 48 seats in Quebec.

The NDP wins 12 seats in the West, 12 in Ontario, 2 in Quebec, and 4 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 30 seats.

This is generally a repeat of the 2006 election.

A brief comment about Frank Graves and EKOS. While Graves' comments have been somewhat unfortunate, (and leaving aside the fact that virtually all pollsters give "advice" to the parties in their analyses) there is no reason to believe that their numbers and their methodology are suspect. Professionals are able to separate their work from their personal views, and there will be no change in how I see their numbers until something comes up which puts the work that EKOS does into question.


  1. Éric,

    We remain for all intents and purposes in political no-person's land...doesn't take a genius to figure out why the numbers remain basically stalemated.

    On the one hand, you have an excessively tired government that is shifting increasingly toward right-wing policies, particularly as it relates to criminal justice issues.

    On the other hand, you have my party -- an opposition work in progress whose liftoff in Montreal needs to be followed up with substantive policy across the board as quickly as possible. As long as a future Red Book is not hot off the presses, we will not have the ability to further considerably move the numbers -- much less pass the Conservatives in popular support on a sustained and semi-permanent basis.

    You need Clara Peller's beef and you need it now. Then you need an election. You have to claw your way back to power with conviction and determination. This phony war crap gets us nowhere. Delay keeps this Prime Minister in power and Liberals looking like hesitant amateurs. Get the picture? Not exactly flattering is it.

  2. That's not bad though.

    If Eric's projection holds that gives the "coalition" 135 seats to the Tories 125

    Good Bye Harper

    Don't forget the supplementary forum to here


  3. How far we've come, how little we've changed, eh?

    I think if there is a repeat of the 2006 election's results, which seems to be the trend these days, there will probably be a move toward a coalition. I think Ignatieff and Layton would have had enough at that point.

    Not what I want, but what possibly happen. Minister of Blank Layton still sends shivers down my spine.

  4. I'll pull a Shadow and take 2% off the NDP's numbers, because their numbers go down about 2% points in elections and give that to the Liberals. I'll also take another 2% off the Greens and Conservatives and give that to the Liberals. So the Liberals end up with 35%, the Conservatives end up with 33%, the NDP has 14% the Bloc stays at 9% and the Greens have 8%.

    So the Liberals lead :)

  5. Eric just to clarify a factual error on your part.

    Graves isn't under fire for providing commentary in his analysis of polling (a standard practice as you point out).

    Lawrence Martin is standing by his reporting that Graves communicated advice to the Liberals in private, acting as a strategist for them. Graves denies this.

    Graves does admit to being a small l liberal and to donating $11000 to the grits, including $500 to Ignatieff. He says he once a gave a small donation to a local Conservative candidate he liked too though.

    And it is a fact that under the Liberals Graves got substantial polling contracts which have dissapeared under the CPC.

    Given his partisan Liberal activities and his vested financial interest in the Liberals returning to power serious questions have been raised.

    People should have been aware of these facts from the start. The fact that Graves hid them is unfortunate and it DOES cast a cloud over EKOS and their polling data.

  6. Until we know the political donations, are lack of, by other pollsters, I'm not prepared to throw Graves under the bus for it.

  7. Shadow,

    No, it doesn't. Liberals aren't interested in falsified polling reports - we want to know our level of support. Maybe Conservatives can live with those voodoo polls, but we don't.

    Given that Allan Gregg used to be a Mulroney adviser, I suspect you will now cast a skeptical light on all Strategic Counsel polls, right? Or are we going to be off consistency again?

  8. This follows a warning by pollster Allan Gregg. His research suggests the Liberals have lost ground because they no longer are seen to represent values that resonate with the broad sweep of Canadians. From the same Larry Martin piece

    Same advice as Graves but not a word is said !!

    Hypocrisy thy name is shadowed
    Hypocrisy ??

  9. PoscStudent the historical experience has been that NDP and CPC support increases during an election while Liberal support decreases. Green support never seems to translate into actual votes.

    Also GOTV/organization matters. NDP has become quite good at holding their ridings and using their votes efficiently. CPC are masters of all things.

    Liberals have been a bit of a trainreck lately in that regard.

    So your estimations seem to be going in the wrong direction altogether.

    PS Anyone who thinks that elections, organization, money, and GOTV doesn't matter is just nuts.

    You're on the right track by estimating some adjustments, your assumptions just seem a little off.

  10. What good would it do a pollster to falsify their results?

    Would they really risk their integrity, and future polling contracts by doing that?

    If a pollster produced such off the wall results on a regular basis
    who would even believe them, when they did release a poll.

    Does anybody but Shadow, seriously believe Frank Graves would compromise his, and his company's reputation in that manner?

    Producing false results, means nothing to a political party, if they are not giving them a true measure of support.

    Shadow, just because you use your own conjecture, to gerrymander polls from companies you do not like, does not make it so.

  11. Peter you're confusing Alan Gregg's public analysis with the controversy over Frank Graves privately contacting the LPC and giving them advice.

    No hypocrisy on my part, only confusion on yours.

    Volkov have you seen Alan Gregg on At Issue lately ?

    He doesn't carry water for Harper or the modern CPC. He was even backing that horrid bilingual judges bill that Harper despises!

    Nor do I find CTV/Globe media to be particuarily pro-Tory at all.

    Its not like pollster Peter Donolo who later went on to become Ignatieff's chief of staff. His "advice" and "analysis" always seemed to be pro-Iggy/pro-Liberal (I'm seeing a pattern here, pollsters gone wild!)

  12. Why am I wasting my time coming to this site?

    On Oct 10, 2008 4 days prior to the Oct 14, 2008 all the campaigning was finished. The policies were announced. The debate was done. Dion was made out to be a fool. All the jockeying was finished.

    The following polls were released on OCT 10:

    9 38 6 28 19 Angus Reid Strategies
    10 34 11 26 19 EKOS Research Associates
    9 35 11 25 18 Harris-Decima
    10 32 8 28 22 Nanos Research
    9 35 9 28 19 Strategic Counsel

    Then the vote was taken on Oct 14 and the results were:

    Election 2008 10 37.6 6.8 26.2 18.2

    The error for this was
    -1 0.4 -0.8 1.8 0.8 Angus Reid Strategies
    0 -3.6 4.2 -0.2 0.8 EKOS Research Associates
    -1 -2.6 4.2 -1.2 -0.2 Harris-Decima
    0 -5.6 1.2 1.8 3.8 Nanos Research
    -1 -2.6 2.2 1.8 0.8 Strategic Counsel

    For EKOS Harris-Decima, and Nanos these were all the 1 polls out of 20 that were outside the MOE.

    Eric if you want to play with seat forecasting the latest EKOS poll , taking into account the obvious polling bias and manipulation would have:

    CPC 31.7+3.6 = 35.3 Liberals 27.1 + .2 = 27.3 NDP 16.3 - .8 = 15.5 BQ 9.5 Green 12.6 – 4.2 = 8.4

    Without any great weighting system, the latest EKOS poll (unless they have tampered further due to an election not being close) gives the CPC a solid minority that only a coalition including the BLOQ can challenge.

    To correct IR from their last preelection poll Oct 9,2010 add 3.6 to CPC and subtract 2.8 from the liberals.. CPC 38.7 (up 1.1 from last election) and Libs 26.2 exactly the same

    To say otherwise does not make sense.

  13. Volkov:
    Given that Allan Gregg used to be a Mulroney adviser, I suspect you will now cast a skeptical light on all Strategic Counsel polls, right?

    You have to be dreaming !! He is so biased that he has to wait till the Rabid Right blogs tell him what to say !!

    Don't forget


  14. Peter,

    If the political war is framed in the way you suggest, you're right, it isn't bad -- rather it will be tragic for Liberals!

    If the voting public get their collective heads around the idea that the next campaign will be a replay of the coalition war, that can only mean one thing: the scraping by of Stephen Harper as he is once again re-elected.

    Liberals have to go into the next election as an unstoppable run away train that lives or dies on Liberal abilities alone to form a government.

    We have to show them: a) what we're made of; b) why we deserve their exclusive support and c) clearly in what direction we will take the country once we've won.

    Relying on the supposed Jack-effect is not a palatable substitute. Rather, it is a recipe for political disaster as down we will go, once again, as surely as yours truly is breathing.

  15. Shadow,

    Out of curiosity, how far back does your "historical record" go? 2008?

    In both 2004 and 2006, the Liberals won a better percentage than the polls pegged them at. Conservatives more or less got what polls had them at, and the NDP were sort of inbetween, often times getting it right on, and other times getting it way off.

    So, here's my question: what world do you live in? 'Cause it sure as heck ain't the one everyone else lives in.

  16. My theory for IR polls makes just as much sense as your theory on Ekos polls Shadow.

  17. BC Voice of Reason:
    "Why am I wasting my time coming to this site?"

    I wonder the same thing.

    If you don't like Eric's weighting and projection system, may I say on his behalf, create your own damn projection site and stop telling him what to do. We'll all come and see it, really... lol.

    And Shadow, I didn't expect you to stay consistent. Why don't you follow "Voice of Reason" and create your own little projection sites, and leave the reasoned debates to people willing to look and accept the facts as they are.

  18. Shadow,

    Can you prove Frank Graves privately contacted the LPC.

    Can you prove he was passing on information to the LPC.

    Can you prove that Graves, and the CBC are in cahoots together to produce false poll results, to benefit the LPC?

    My goodness do you honestly know what you sound like?

    Frank Graves, would not put his company or his own personal integrity at risk.

    He is entitled to hold his own personal political views, just as any other citizen is. They do not affect his job.

    Frankly you are really starting to sound like a loon.

    Did you complain last election when CTV, and Mike Duffy torpedoed, Dion.

    Did you applaud when they showed him having problems with a poorly worded question in English, and asking for a restart.

    Did you applaud when CTV broke their word and showed that?

    Did you know CTV, broke CRTC, rules and were sanctioned for it?

    Dion's first language is French, and what CTV did was a disgrace. Because he had some trouble with English, did not disqualify him from becoming PM.

    CTV, destroyed him and tried to make him look like a fool.

    Mike Duffy was very handsomely rewarded for that character assasination.

    So don't you preach anymore about, what you perceive to be a CBC, EKOS bias against the CPC.

    It is all your own conjecture, and speculation. You cannot prove one blessed thing.

    Start trying to add a more sensible contribution to this board.

  19. Volkov please show a little more maturity and go back and read what I initially wrote before calling me out on something I never said.

    I was talking about Liberal performance DURING an election.

    Last poll taken before election starts compared to election day results.

    Obviously a campaign is in the middle.

    I was NOT talking about comparing last poll taken before election day compared to election day results.

    Do you understand the difference ?

  20. Well said Volkov! I don't like what Graves did and I do believe he is not impartial and should be replaced as CBC's pollster. There must not only be no conflict of interest but no appearance of same. Graves has created the appearance of a conflict of interest. Having said that I do not believe EKOS deliberately tampered with or attempted to bias its polls.

    As for using 2008 results to determine who is the most accurate pollster that's wrong headed thinking. In 2008 it was NANOS who was closet, as I believe it was in 2004. Each election seems to produce a different winner. I suppose if you want to be really accurate you could average the last three elections for accuracy. Eric does a great job. We may all disagree with his totals from time to time. They are only a prediction based on his model which I would suggest is a really good model. In every election there are surprises. In 2006 I was off on the seat totals by three seats. In 2008 I was way off.

    Arguing with Eric over his model is rude and more importantly useless. It adds nothing to the conversation. Even worse is arguing over the polls. They are what they are. We may not like the results of a particular poll but all we need do is wait for the next one. Grow up.

    Good fortune to all,


  21. Ronald:
    We have to show them: a) what we're made of; b) why we deserve their exclusive support and c) clearly in what direction we will take the country once we've won.

    Got no argument with that. At the moment though we are not seeing anything that will give that thrust. In fact we aren't seeing much if anything of a platform from any of the parties.

    The comment you responded to is only looking at the seat projections from the current poll and is meant to show the Tories are vulnerable, that's all.

    Don't forget !


  22. For judging a pollster's accuracy, I intend to continually update those measurements when new elections take place, be it national or provincial.

  23. I don't think that a coalition will be elected, people will not stand for it. But, what about a Bloc/Conservative deal, to really shove it in Mr Zs face.
    After all, the Bloc does have experience as an opposition party, something Layton has never had. Not much of a step from there to govt.
    Lib/ndp would not have a majority and would have to depend on the Bloc to pass bills. The ballot question will be PMSH majority or coalition including the Bloc.

  24. Mary T,

    You say a coalition cannot, be elected, because people will not stand for it.

    You then turn around and push for a BLOC/Con alliance.

    What as assinine statement.

    Do you believe a BLOC/Con alliance is acceptable to the public?

    As for Layton, having no experience in opposition. He is leader of the Federal NDP, and as such is one of the opposition leaders in the HOC.

    Just as much as what Duceppe is.

    I tell you what, lets put a Lib/NDP, on the ballot vs a Con/Bloc on the ballot.

    Which one do you think would win the election?

  25. Mary T,

    Just in case you haven't noticed Stephen Harper does not have a majority either.

    He needs to rely on the opposition to get things passed, sometimes with the support of the BLOC.

    You want a CON/Bloc alliance to PO, MR. Z, what a juvenile statement.

    What about governing in the best interest of the people, and finding common ground.

    You actually make no sense.

  26. I guess I wasn't clear enough, with a lib/ndp coalition, the opposition would be conservative/bloc.
    They would need the Bloc to pass any bill.
    As for experience as opposition leader, I meant in the HofC. Chretain designated the Bloc the official opposition a few years ago.
    So, any coalition govt would have to include the Bloc, and I don't thing a lot of voters outside Quebec would go for that.
    Fear can do funny things, and the fear of said coalition could cost the libs another 20 seats. (The average they have lost in the last elections)

  27. Mary T,

    "Chretien designated the BLOC, the official opposition a few years ago"

    He did no such thing.

    After the 1993, election the BLOC, was the official opposition, by virtue of the fact they had the second greatest amount of seats.

    A Prime Minister, does not make declarations on who the official opposition is.

    After the next election, if the Libs/NDP have more seats than the cons, and it is still a minority, and they decide they have no confidence in Harper, guess who he has to turn to, to survive?

    Stephen Harper has had BLOC, support on many things.

    Does that bother you?

    Stop your hyperbole.

    You have no idea what people are really thinking now about a coalition, alliance or what have you.

    You do not seem to understand our inherited system of Westminster government.

    I will tell you one think though, the Liberals and the NDP, represent more voters in this country than Harper does.

    The Liberals and the NDP, are not running as a coalition. They are separate entities.

    That is all the CPC, has in it's bag of dirty tricks, and frankly it is disingenuous, and disgusting.

  28. 49 steps to answer your questions thinking about this: EKOS did something very unusual during the second week of the prorogation issue.

    They changed their polling question to include "Other". Now usually changes in polling are done shortly after an election to make improvements on the model.

    Weird timing.

    Some pollsters showed little effect from prorogation on CPC support. EKOS showed a small drop in the first week of jan. Then they showed a large drop after the inclusion of other.

    That specific drop in that week was hailed as proof that prorogation was the BIGGEST. MISTAKE. EVER.

    (Instead of pointing out the obvious which is that including "other" will decrease gov't support.)

    Graves also came out during that time with his advice to the Liberals that they force an election ASAP.

    Was he hyping prorogation as a possible election issue in a campaign he was pushing for ?

    Weird timing. Weird behaviour. Weird conflicts of interest.

    I don't really know what to think of Frank Graves or his motives. Its all just a little erratic and shady.

  29. maryT,

    Seeing there is no common ground between the Conservatives and Bloc I doubt they would be able to figure out a compromise to run the country. As well Bloc supporters cannot stand the Conservatives, which we see in opinion polls, so most likely alot of the Bloc support would end up moving to the Liberals and NDP. The Conservatives would also plummit in the polls which would most likely lead to a Liberal majority government. hmmm.. maybe your on to something a coalition between the Cons and Bloc would definitly ruin the Cons and probably the Bloc opening the way for a good government :).

  30. Shadow,

    Will you get off it already.

    For goodness sake, you sound like a
    paranoid scandal hound.

    You see conspiracies where none exist.

    Whatever Graves may or may not be up to is all your own idle speculation.

    You can prove nothing.

    I will tell you one thing though after the antics of Mike Duffy and CTV, nothing anybody else ever does can compare to that.

    After the RCMP interference in th 06 election, nothing can compare to that either.

    Did either of those two events upset you?

    My guess is a resounding NO.

    But by gosh, if that had happened to a conservative, your head would explode.

  31. Unless the liberals and ndp get on tv and publicly declare they would not, under any circumstances attempt to form a coalition govt, if PMSH had more seats but not a majority, you might think it isn't in the works but the rest of us don't trust them. How many times has Mr Z said one thing then changed his mind. And you know there will be lots of ads warning voters of the coalition.
    And yes, JC did pick the Bloc, when it was questioned if a separatist party should be opposition.

  32. As the Bloc Québécois had more seats than the Reform Party after the 1993 election, they had the right to form the Official Opposition.

  33. Mary T,

    For your information, the BLOC is in the house of commons because Quebecer's vote for them.
    Quebecer's are free to vote for whatever party they like, just as other Canadians are allowed to do.

    The BLOC, is not an illegal party and they are breaking NO laws.

    They have just as much right to be in the HOC, as any other party.

    That is up to Quebecer's to decide who represents them.

    Currently Quebec is still a part of Canada, and that is what people in Quebec have chosen to represent them in the HOC.

    After the 1993 election they had the second greates amount of seats, and had every right to be the official opposition.

    Quebecer's will determine their own future.

    What would you have us do?

    Tell Quebec they cannot send to the HOC, the representatives, they have chosen?

    Get real.

    Also when Paul Martin was still PM, Stephen Harper had no problem penning a letter with Duceppe, and Layton, asking the GG, to consider all her options, should Martin seek to ask for dissoultion.

    What was Harper up to?

    I don't see Harper, doing anything to rid the HOC, of the BLOC, do you.

    With people like you, it is no wonder that people in Quebec, want the BLOC.

    Stephen Harper has also been known to change his mind on quite a few things as well.

  34. I'd doubt we'll see a formal coalition between the Liberals and NDP, especially under Ignatieff.

    What we will most likely see after the next election is the NDP supporting the a Liberal government, which is not a coalition and nothing different then what's happening now or in any other minority government.

  35. PoscStudent I strongly doubt that.

    If the Liberals have less seats than the Conservatives they can't leapfrog over them without some kind of arrangement with the NDP.

    NDP holds all the power, its their way or nothing. They want cabinet seats.

    Therefore Iggy's choices are become PM with a coalition or let Harper continue with a minority.

    Anything else is wishful thinking.

  36. PoacStudent:
    I'd doubt we'll see a formal coalition between the Liberals and NDP, especially under Ignatieff.

    What we will most likely see after the next election is the NDP supporting the a Liberal government, which is not a coalition and nothing different then what's happening now or in any other minority government.

    Absolutely correct. That has been and will continue to be the traditional method. Dion's BIG mistake was having a formal coalition and then a signing ceremony!


    This time there won't be anything on paper, the NDP will support the Liberals without getting any Cabinet seats and the Bloc can probably be depended on to support as well. All three parties are centre-left to left.


  37. Peter you're a liberal are you not ?

    So this statement, coming from someone who is not within the NDP, is sheer arrogance and entitlement:

    "the NDP will support the Liberals without getting any Cabinet seats "

  38. Shadow:
    Peter you're a liberal are you not ?

    Again you make an unsubstantiated statement.

    In answer to your question I vote for who I think has the best package.

    As a result I have voted for Liberals, PC and NDP.

    Your credibility is even further in the crapper.

    "the NDP will support the Liberals without getting any Cabinet seats "

    Because in the past they have including the great Tommy Douglas. You really are beyond the pale

  39. The ndp doesn't need cabinet seats, they get much more of their platform thru by blackmailing minority liberal govts. Pass this or we will vote against you.
    The last thing was the Martin budget. Layton is just very upset he can't blackmail the PM.

  40. Peter I think you're getting confused between an "unsubstantiated statement" and a question.

    I asked you a question, hence the question mark, as to whether or not you were a Liberal.

    Thank you for answering. In the future cool your jets and don't be so rude in response.

    Your examples of past NDP behaviour don't seem to include the most recent precedent under the most recent leader Jack Layton.

    Its now been established after the last attempted coalition that he will require cabinet seats.

    Unless Latyon retires then its completely unreasonable to assume the NDP will support the Liberals without a formal coalition.

    It goes against recent history and behaviour. To suggest such a thing does seem to reveal a sense of entitlement to power and an unwillingness to work with others.

    The sort of disdain for the NDP is common amongst partisan Liberal supporters.

  41. Mary T,

    Can you provide and substantive evidence, that a Liberal government was blackmailed by Layton?

    You do realize blackmail is a crime?

    If the CPC, has this evidence why do they not report Layton to the police?

  42. If the CPC, has this evidence why do they not report Layton to the police?

    Because, despite their demented rhetoric, it does NOT exist.

  43. Shadow,

    My oh my do you love idle speculation.

    Ok here's mine.

    After the next election the Liberals, and the NDP, will have more seats than Harper. They will join up together and decide they have no confidence in the Harper government.

    Harper will go crawling on his hands and knees to Duceppe.

    Harper will beg, cry, and humiliate himself in front of Duceppe, so that Duceppe will keep him in office.

    Duceppe will say OK, Stephane I will do that, based on several conditions.

    Steve says what are they?

    Duceppe, says you will recognize Quebec as an independent nation.
    You will then forward Quebec $100 billion dollars. I will be the Deputy Prime Minister, and finance minister.

    The BLOC must make up 95% of your cabinet.

    And the most imporatnt thing you will kiss my feet everyday, and call me master.

    Harper agrees, to all terms.

  44. Did Layton not brag that the ndp wrote/amended or whatever you want to call it, for his support.
    You can go back to Tommy Douglas re the Health act, just to name a couple. Most of the things PET is blamed for was really the result of pressure from the CCF/NDP for their support to keep libs in office.

  45. 49 steps and Peter you're being very foolish.

    Of course Layton blackmailed Martin. It was political blackmail and its perfectly legal.

    Layton was very clear that unless Martin changed the budget to fund NDP priorities Martin would face an election.


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