Monday, June 14, 2010

BC NDP strengthen lead

Angus-Reid recently released a new poll on provincial voting intentions in British Columbia. There isn't much change, but the trend is in the BC New Democrats' favour.Compared to Angus-Reid's last BC poll in mid-April, 46% is a gain of one point for the BC NDP. More importantly, the BC Liberals have dropped three points to 26%. That would be their lowest electoral result since 1986.

The BC Greens are steady at 14% while the BC Conservatives are up three points to 8%.

We can't compare apples to oranges, but the Mustel Group's May BC poll had the BC NDP at 44%, the BC Liberals at 32%, the BC Greens at 13%, and the BC Conservatives at 7%. While we can't compare the results, it does serve to help confirm Angus-Reid's findings.

In Vancouver, the BC NDP leads with 46%. The BC Liberals are at 27% and the Greens are at 15%.

On Vancouver Island, the BC NDP also leads, with 54%. This is their best regional result. The BC Liberals are way behind with 18% while the BC Greens are at 16% there.

In the Interior, the BC NDP leads with 43%, followed more closely by the BC Liberals at 30%. The BC Conservatives are in third here with 16%, their best regional result.

Finally, in the North the BC Liberals have their only lead with 35%. The BC NDP is at 34% here, and the Greens are at 18%.

Still another three years until the next BC election, but a steep hill for Gordon Campbell and his BC Liberals to climb. The HST, which seems to be the driving issue against Gordon's government, might be forgotten by 2013.

(Ipsos-Reid's poll from Saturday will get a post either today or tomorrow, while Léger Marketing's Quebec poll released today will also get a look this week.)

20 comments:

  1. Gordon should look at calling it quits pretty soon, he already mentioned he wouldn't run in 2013 so he should probably look at letting someone else take over the party within the next year.

    Honestly though all this fuss over the HST seems a bit ridiculous to me, I know people don't want to pay more taxes but it's not like it's the end of the world. NL, NS, NB, QC all made out fine. It's time for ON and BC to suck it up and let it happen.

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  2. I believe all or some of those jurisdictions lowered their combined rates so the change was tax neutral for consumers. In BC the people were lied to. In ON the government doesn't have a mandate. The HST is going to mean the likely demise of both governments. McGuinty will lose because he has done so many things wrong. Campbell and his Liberals are about to come apart at the seams. Sometimes you have to choose the lesser of two evils and punish the promise breakers.

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  3. I really like McGuinty's accomplishments in terms of green belt, transit, and energy policy. I hope the electorate shares my appreciation. HST is, after all, offset by cuts to income taxes and an initial rebate.

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  4. leonsp I like much of what McGuinty has done has done as well. He's had my vote since he became leader. This time I might not vote or I'll vote against him. I'm upset with green power deal with Samsung giving them a huge subsidy and preferred access to our power grid. I'm also upset with the government seeking to regulate every facet of my life. Ontario has become a true nanny state. We should be developing our hydro-electric power in the north rather than developing wind farms.There is a problem with wind farms as Denmark has found out:


    http://www.aweo.org/problemwithwind.html

    The HST is the icing on the cake as it transfer 2billion in taxes from business to consumers.

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  5. McGuinty and honesty do not mix. His first election he signed a document saying 'no new taxes without a referendum' then created the regressive, expensive, idiotic health tax (guess you can figure out what I think of that one) while cutting services (eye exams being the one I noticed most). He still was re-elected by finding a shiny object (school funding) and misleading about his viewpoint during the campaign (he loves public schools, as long as they are of his religion) and had the advantage of a guy who really can't win (John Tory who had an easy, easy, easy comeback with how McGuinty, his wife and children all used the Catholic schools who survive via funding by the public purse and why does he only want it for his church, but was unwilling to use that).

    Come 2011 we'll see McGuinty find something to distract and win yet again (claim the PC's will kill health care probably, or cost seniors something I suspect). The HST will be long forgotten by the Ontario electorate by then. Having the NDP run by someone very closely linked to unions will help McGuinty as well.

    As to his energy policy - even Green's find it bizarre with massive single source funding for windmills rather than doing the smart thing and using smaller Ontario companies to generate more power for less money (more than one was very annoyed about it). Not to mention how the coal plants are now losing money yet still being used even though we have more than enough energy without them (shift to standby if you must keep them around at all).

    BC has an active electorate, Ontario a sleepy one. We did keep voting for one party for over 40 years remember.

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  6. I figure that after Gordo's resignation, a leadership race, and a still-monotone BC NDP Opposition, the Liberals will rebound back up to a competitive stance. The HST will eventually blow over, it just may take a couple of years.

    Any ideas on who the next BC Liberal leader will be? Someone said Carole Taylor before.

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  7. You should all elect yourselves a Danny Williams, Newfoundland and Labrador has only had tax cuts over the last 7 years!

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  8. McGuinty will lose because he has done so many things wrong.

    Sad to say but as a Liberal Earl I have to agree. Remember the eHealth fiasco?

    So many things, so little time !!

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  9. What about the latest Ipsos Reid Poll???

    If an election were held tomorrow, the Conservatives would remain steady at 35 per cent of the vote, with the Liberals falling two points to 27 per cent and NDP support staying put at 16 per cent.

    Read it on Global News: Canadians oppose urge to merge

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  10. Eric

    I know that you are too busy but you have become the go-to guy for polling info.

    The second choice polls referenced have tended to be from prior to the last election

    In Weston's article over the week end he included the following:

    "Nanos Research routinely tracks voters’ second choice of political parties, and the results suggest a merger would indeed be smart as a brick.

    The latest Nanos poll, for instance, shows that far more Liberal voters would rather go to the Conservatives (38.7%) as their second choice, than to the New Democrats (27.9%).

    In other words, put the Libs and Dippers together and watch all those blue Grits holding their noses for Harper in the next election."

    That shows how much the game is shifting based on the appearance that the Liberals are courting coalition with the NDP. If the CPC is able to spin this as a Liberal move to the Left The CPC is in line to get an almost 10% bump from deserting Liberal support - 45+ % is a majority

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  11. Eric any chance you could make some rough seats projections for BC with this latest poll? Thanks!

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  12. There will be a Lib/NDP coalition. Bank on it!



    http://thestar.blogs.com/davidolive/2010/06/the-liberalndp-coalition.html

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  13. Volkov I hate to say it but its over for the BC Liberals.

    The two candidates people have in mind to replace Gordo are Carole Taylor and Dianne Watts. Recent reports say neither want the job.

    The BC Conservative party is causing serious vote splitting. Multiple polls show 8% is the new normal for them. There are talks to get a cross over member - NOT Blair Leckstrum (sp?) though, apparently he wants Jay Hill's federal seat when he retires.

    Instead the 1 indy MLA is in talks.

    My prediction: Small NDP majority, Liberal opposition, and 3 or 4 BC Conservative party members.

    UNLESS! Vander Zalm does something.

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  14. If BC's HST looked like Ontario's HST, I'd support it.

    But it doesn't. It's a tax increase that will generate over $1 billion in extra government revenue every year.

    Campbell somehow managed to ome up with a tax that deeply offends both the left and the right, and that is why he's going to see 5-10 of his MLAs get recalled in the next year.

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  15. It's far too soon to be able to predict election results with any accuracy, but if people stay this angry with the Liberals the Green might have a shot at picking up a few seats.

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  16. Ira if those MLA's are recalled I assume there will be by elections and if the government loses them then it will no longer command the confidence of the legislature and this will result in an election? Am I right here? TIA.

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  17. Earl it would take 7 recalls and NDP pick ups for control of the legislature to go to the NDP, assuming both conservative minded independents have confidence in Gordo and not the NDP.

    Recalls are very difficult though, I think Ira overstates the numbers. It'll be more like 4 or 5 members recalled.

    We have fixed election dates in BC and people would be very, very annoyed if they were broken.

    My guess would be that if Ira's scenario comes true then Campbell would resign and advise the LG to appoint James premier because an election would be a devasting blow.


    Let James be premier and take the heat for the fact that the HST cannot be repealed w/o a huge fine. I can tell you with 100% certainty that she will NOT repeal it, nor will Hudack if he's elected in Ontario. The terms of the agreement are too punitive if you back out.

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  18. Earl,... I don't think so.

    Campbell has a 13 seat margin. I think the only way for him to lose confidence of the house is a vote in the house. So he would have to lose 7 seats (all to one or more parties that he cannot expect to garner support from.

    Election BC's information. I haven't gone to find the actual act as passed tho.

    http://www.elections.bc.ca/index.php/referenda-recall-initiative/recall/

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  19. http://www.insightrix.com/?action=d7_article_viewer_view_article&Join_ID=309643

    Found another poll on Saskatchewan dated April 15, 2010.

    One mention of it in a news article in 1 paper.... the media department should be fired on getting this poll out.

    58.4 Saskparty
    28.7 NDP

    Which is getting closer to making it a real election The last election was 51 SP - 37 NDP. The NDP is always competitive in the Urban seats, but hold almost no rural support (Elhard took my riding with 75% of support). It was 1 of 8 seats the SP took with 70% of the vote. The liberals were competitive in only their leaders seat.

    I think that the Saskparty needs to beat the NDP by 3 or 4 to retain power. Even the NDP lose the popular vote by 2 or 3... they will probably win a majority based on the rural votes supermajority the Saskparty holds.

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  20. http://www.insightrix.com/?action=d7_article_viewer_view_article&Join_ID=232079

    This one is partly irrelevant and old, but I wonder how it would translate to the national scene.

    1/3 of peoples voting intentions between party and platform do not match. It got me thinking,... how would our political landscape change if people actually took the time to become informed,... read platforms,... learn to separate facts from spin....

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