Friday, June 11, 2010

Projection: 129 CPC, 95 LPC, 51 BQ, 33 NDP

A new projection shows the Conservatives and New Democrats trending upwards, with the Liberals on the down-swing.While the Conservatives are stable at 129 seats, the Liberals have dropped one seat, in Ontario, to 95. The NDP has gained that seat, and they now stand at 33. The Bloc Québécois is steady at 51 seats.

The Conservatives are up 0.1 points to 33.3%, while the Liberals are down 0.4 to 28.0%. The NDP is up 0.2 to 16.8%, while the Greens are down 0.1 to 10.2%.

Starting with Ontario, the Conservatives and Liberals are now tied at 35.6%. The Tories gained 0.1 points to get there, while the Liberals have dropped 0.4. The NDP is up 0.2 to 16.8% and the Greens are down 0.1 to 10.4%.

In Quebec, the Bloc continues a slow crawl upwards, gaining 0.1 points. They now stand at 38.5%. The Liberals are down 0.3 points to 23.1%, while both the Conservatives and NDP are up 0.1 to 17.2% and 12.1%, respectively. The Greens are down 0.1 to 7.4%.

The Conservatives have solidified their lead in British Columbia, with a gain of 0.5 points. They now stand at 36.3%. The NDP is up 0.3 to 26.6%, while the Liberals are down a full point to 22.9%. The Greens are up 0.2 to 12.0%.

The Liberals' only lead (and gain) comes in Atlantic Canada, where they are up 0.5 points to 37.2%. The Conservatives are steady at 32.1% and the NDP is down 0.2 to 23.0%. The Greens are down 0.3 points to 6.1%.

The biggest gain comes in Alberta, where the Conservatives are up 0.6 points to 59.1%. The Liberals are down 0.1 to 16.6% and the NDP is up 0.3 to 11.2%. The Greens are down 0.6 points to 9.9%.

Finally, in the Prairies, the Conservatives are up 0.2 points to 46.4%. The NDP is up 0.4 to 23.1% while the Liberals are down 0.3 points to 22.0%. The Greens are down 0.4 points.

Adding up all of these regional gains and losses, we get gains of 1.5 for the Conservatives, 1.1 for the New Democrats, and 0.1 for the Bloc Québécois. The Greens are down 1.3 and the Liberals lose 1.7. In terms of numbers this doesn't mean anything, but it does give a good indication of who were this projection's winners and losers.

For the Tories, the gain in British Columbia is good news. But their big gain in Alberta is more or less wasted, and they made very little progress in Ontario and Quebec. So, while on the face of it, it looks good for the Conservatives, they aren't doing best where they need to.

For the NDP, they made good gains in the Prairies and British Columbia, important regions for them, as well as a gain in Ontario, where it is hard to gain some ground. But further losses in Atlantic Canada hurt them.

The Bloc is now punching above their 2008 electoral weight, so that is good news for them.

The Liberals, however, suffered important losses. A full point in British Columbia is huge, and 0.4 points in Ontario is also very bad. They are losing ground in Quebec as well, and the gap between them and the Bloc now stands at 15.4 points.

50 comments:

  1. My intent is not to argue with your seat predictions.

    You have the Liberals with 95, an increase of 18 seats to what they currently have.

    Last night on the CBC At Issue there was unanimous agreement that Ignatieff was done and would likely take the Liberal party with him.

    Hebert said there was a chance that the BLOC would be the official opposition and the Liberals would be below 50 seats. The other 3 just nodded at that the prediction had merit.


    There is a huge disconnect with what the polls say and what the pundits are predicting.


    Is the 15% approval rating of Ignatieff the only poll that has meaning?

    If there was only a 4-8% gap between Liberal and CPC support (as the polls have shown) why are the Liberals in full panic mode? Why have their most ardent supporters in the media written them off?

    Is the Immigration bill flip-flop the final straw in showing Liberal incompetence?

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  2. --- You have the Liberals with 95, an increase of 18 seats to what they currently have.

    The polls are the polls. Ignatieff is polling at about the same level as Dion, but the Tories are way down. Even the NDP is down as compared to their 2008 level. It is impossible, with these numbers, to see anything but modest Liberal gains.

    --- Last night on the CBC At Issue there was unanimous agreement that Ignatieff was done and would likely take the Liberal party with him.

    Story-lines sometimes have a way of having a life of their own, regardless of the evidence.

    --- Hebert said there was a chance that the BLOC would be the official opposition and the Liberals would be below 50 seats. The other 3 just nodded at that the prediction had merit.

    It is possible, but not with these numbers. Ignatieff could much up the campaign and drop to 24% or 23%. If the Bloc gets up over 42%, then it could happen. It's unlikely, though.

    --- There is a huge disconnect with what the polls say and what the pundits are predicting.

    I think they spend more time reading each other's columns, and less time looking at the numbers. The average Canadians doesn't care what Warren Kinsella is saying.

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  3. Eric

    If I'm not mistaken that almost looks like a replay of last months projections? A seat here or there but no real trends showing?

    Odd how the country seems to have stagnated on the political scene despite all the sturm und drang from Parliament ?

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  4. Yep, it has been pretty stable. The 33-28 split seems to be a good average between everything we've seen.

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  5. Yep, it has been pretty stable. The 33-28 split seems to be a good average between everything we've seen.


    The 33-28 split is pretty much what we have seen since last summer, with the exception of a period of time last fall and in January/February.

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  6. Been doing some thinking about the Bloc.

    First. To keep this block of seats they must be doing something other than the separatist bit. If recent polls are anything to go by the sentiment for separation is definitely down. So what's the secret?

    I think twofold. First they have managed to deliver for Quebec and second I think their riding associations and member staff really deliver for the ridings. Something some other parties need to relearn.

    Duceppe meanwhile has also changed, becoming more of a National politician than purely a regional one. Remember that lecture tour he took last winter across the country supposedly selling the separation idea but I think it was more about selling Duceppe as a national politician.

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  7. Support for sovereignty has been rather stable, at about 40%. That is where it was in 1995 before the referendum campaign.

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  8. sort of a PS to my initial post:

    Maybe the pundits see what they will be reporting when the election campaign is on and see the polls having a radical shift when the population actual pays a bit more attention....?

    ------------------------

    "It is possible, but not with these numbers. Ignatieff could much up the campaign and drop to 24% or 23%."

    I think that Mr. Ignatieff's and the Liberal low is much lower than that. I see the Liberal range being 33% - 19%. If the CPC get caught with a scandal (obviously forcing an election) that sticks and Ignatieff does really well the Liberals could get 33%.

    If they start at 27% a drop of 8% over the election campaign is not that outside the realm of possibility.

    They burnt off the Liberal brand last election and it may be close to the tipping point where the Liberal brand becomes a joke and drags the vote away.

    Maybe the NDP and Green voters are comfortable being losers with a moral stand, I think that the only thing the Liberal brand inspires is the benifts of power and access to taxpayers $.

    Hard to be identified as a Loser standing for nothing and not being able to get close to the trough.

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  9. Battle lines drawn:



    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/spector-vision/

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  10. Support for sovereignty has been rather stable, at about 40%.

    Which in and of itself is rather remarkable. Can't think of anything else that has stayed at that level for so long.

    Sort of supports my thought that the Bloc is definitely doing somethings right ?

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  11. BC Energy Minister resigns over HST:

    http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/100611/national/minister_quits_liberals

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  12. Of course one could also say the Conservative brand is becoming a punch line.

    The spending on the G8, summit is an outrage.

    Harper, is spending $1.2 billion to host this three day summit, and the point of the meeting is fiscal prudence, and nations trying to get their books back in balance.

    Lets go through the list:

    Tony Clement, is throwing pork around his own riding hand over fist, and is on a spending orgy, like there is no tomorrow.

    We have $2 million for a "fake lake" thousand wasted on "toilets to nowhere", a steamboat refit, that is not even going to be used for the G8.

    Money wasted on solar lights, sidewalks, wooden fencing, and even $1.1 million for "wall paper"

    There is probably all kinds of horror we don't even know about yet. It hasn't been audited yet, and of course the final bill is not in yet.

    Now I am sure Canadians, from coast to coast, to coast, are just massively impressed with the Harper government about now. They are probably thinking to themselves, that they can hardly wait for an election so that they can race out, and endorse this nonsense.

    Of course there is a lot more to come in the fall after Sheila Fraser, releases her report on the EAP, spending.

    Now if Harper, could bugger up the G8, spending this badly, one can only imagine the horror stories coming out of the EAP, spending.

    Stephen Harper, always has a very great tendency to shoot himself in the foot.

    He has very aptly displayed, that he is not a fiscal conservative, and he has no respect for taxpayers or their money. He is a total fiscal incompetent.

    Now instead of Conservative supporters showing their very great concern for the LPC, I very humbly suggest you turn your concern to the CPC.

    It is only going to get worse for Harper and crew, and they are going to need all the support they can muster in the months to come.

    I am sure the people in Toronto, are just thrilled with Steve, and can't wait to show their support.

    Just ask the vendors who are going to lose 21 days of business, due to Steve's incompetence, and receiving no compensation for it.

    I believe this is only the tip of the iceberg, and Canadians will not forget.

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  13. To keep this block of seats they must be doing something other than the separatist bit.
    Of course they are. They are providing the proverbial "good government".

    The Bloc cannot actually do anything about separation, short of forming a majority government, because it is up to the province to attempt sovereignty. So it is relatively safe to vote for the Bloc federally, if your main concern is having an effective MP. You won't find voting for them results in separation.

    Contrary to those who simply see the Bloc as out and out traitors, I see them more like hockey players who wish to be traded, but until they are traded will work hard and professionally for the team they are still on. True, they can't possibly be as gung ho for Canada as others, but I expect and they appear to do their jobs as MPs. Would a hockey player wishing to be traded start throwing games deliberately? Not a professional one.

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  14. I think that the only thing the Liberal brand inspires is the benifts of power and access to taxpayers $.
    Back to this meme, eh? Are you implying that the CPC is not exactly the same in this regard? The CPC are not in it for power?

    Is there any political party that does not wish to be in power? Besides Rhinoceros of course.

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  15. 49 Steps says "Just ask the vendors who are going to lose 21 days of business, due to Steve's incompetence, and receiving no compensation for it."

    ==============================

    Their voices will likely be drowned out by Hotels that are booked and charging 300% more than their peak summer rate... ( you know the rates they charge for Gay Pride week and TFF).

    The Niagara wine growers will never have a better chance to show off their world class product to the world.


    The other voices being heard would be the Police and Mounties and security people who will be getting huge bonuses that they will be spending in the community creating a huge economic spin off.

    With the vocal whining about how bad Toronto will suffer under the weight of this opportunity it makes me thankful they never won their Olympic bid.

    In the future major Global events being hosted in Canada need to be staged at our true world class cities that could handle the problems that comes with the opportunities: Vancouver, Calgary and Montreal would be cashing in and not whining.

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  16. I think that the only thing the Liberal brand inspires is the benefits of power and access to taxpayers $.

    Back to this meme, eh? Are you implying that the CPC is not exactly the same in this regard? The CPC are not in it for power?

    Is there any political party that does not wish to be in power?

    ==============================

    I still have hope that the CPC stand for smaller government, fairness for all and not just special interest groups, providing a safety net that does not provide a disincentive to individual hard work and accomplishment.


    The Liberals really need to work on what they stand for. It shouldn't be so easy to talk about a deal with the NDP.

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  17. Not content with just resigning as Energy Minister he also resigned from caucus.

    That's a pretty strong statement IMO

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  18. 49 Steps:
    There is probably all kinds of horror we don't even know about yet.


    My personal puzzlement is the brush clearing last fall around Hydro lines in the Town of Huntsville. Not Chaffey Township where Deerhurst is; that would be fair enough because the lights had better not go out on the G8. Not the whole of the District of Muskoka, but the Town of Huntsville down to Stephenson Township and Tony Clement's hometown of Port Sydney.

    OK, perhaps it was stimulus spending. But why were they stimulating crews from Michigan to clear around Canadian power lines?

    No proof, by the way, that any federal funds went into this. It may all have been on Hydro One's nickel. Line clearing was overdue, although not so badly that it had to be done by Americans. Somebody else can follow the pennies and see whether it came out of the $1.2 billion.

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  19. I must say I find Conservative supporters amusing.

    We have a Prime Minister, who is blowing $1.2 billion to host this G8 summit. It is only three days, and the point of the meeting is fiscal prudence. Of course they all fail to mention that the real summit is in South Korea, in November, and that is where the real work is being done.

    We had a Prime Minister, who had us in deficit, before the recession even hit. A man who denied a deficit was even possible, and who also said stimulus spending was not required.

    A man who is running the largest deficit in Canadian history, and is wiping out, all the debt that has been repaid in the last eight years.

    A man who wakes every morning, and begins the day plotting and scheming away. on how to attain that elusive majority. A man who goes to bed thinking the same thing.

    And for what?

    What has Harper done?

    Harper, has buggered up the finances of the nation, and has Canada a laughing stock on the International stage.

    A man who does more damage, every day he is in office.

    Conservative supporters will still defend the indefensible.

    Karma, has a way with catching up to you, and when it catches up to Stephen Harper, that will truly be a great day for Canada, when he does get the boot from office he so richly deserves.

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  20. Karma, has a way with catching up to you, and when it catches up to Stephen Harper, that will truly be a great day for Canada, when he does get the boot from office he so richly deserves.


    Absolutely agree, 49

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  21. Peter,

    Obviously, the Bloc Québécois resiliency in Ottawa is strengthened by some members work on a local basis.

    But there are other factors at play: a solid brand name (ever wondered why "Molson Canadian" beer is hard to find in Quebec's dépanneurs?) and a strong reputation to position itself right at the centre of Quebec's political spectrum, which is something almost impossible for the federalist parties.

    With the Cons too right wing on social issues -- we kicked our local clergy out of politics 50 years ago this year and we're not about to replace them with some born-again Orangemen --, the Liberal's brand name in tatters following the 1982 repatriation and the sponsorship scandal and the Dippers too eager to interfere in every provincial jurisdiction, the federalist parties are all tainted in the eyes of nationalist voters.

    Hence, the steady 40% share for the Bloc in Quebec.

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  22. Back to the Brink:

    http://www2.macleans.ca/2010/06/11/back-to-the-brink/

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  23. Eight BC MLA's ar risk of recall over HST:

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/british-columbia/eight-mlas-at-risk-over-hst-recalls/article1601009/

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  24. Liberals Can't win for losing:

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/radwanski/the-liberals-cant-win-for-losing/article1599104/

    I think that there is a lot of truth in this analysis.

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  25. Beware of Polls:

    http://www.financialpost.com/news/Scott+Stinson+Beware+trusting+polls/3144113/story.html

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  26. Speaking of the BQ it appears the referendum issue has just resurfaced:

    http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Duceppe+tells+world+Quebec+will+hold+another+sovereignty+referendum/3144275/story.html

    Duceppe just sent 1,600 letters to elites around the world telling them to brace themselves for another referendum.

    (Ironically enough the printing, paper, and mailing costs were paid for by the gov't of Canada and bear our national emblem. Sent from a party that recieves almost 90% of their funding from the gov't of Canada.)


    How will this alter the political landscape ?

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  27. ClaudeB:

    and a strong reputation to position itself right at the centre of Quebec's political spectrum, which is something almost impossible for the federalist parties.

    In other words, to quote myself, they have done it right. Attended to the issues and riding affairs. And kept their noses clean which none of the Feds have.

    Now with Pauline Marois saying "Oh we'll have a referendum some day, just not now or the immediate future." they have backed away from the separatist position. A little bit further and they could start looking at seats in Eastern Ontario and New Brunswick.

    Yes, yes !! Keep the damned churches out of politics for sure.

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  28. Eric,

    For your projections, or at least for ones concerning Ekos, I was wondering whether or not you could do projections for the cities, specifically the GTA, Greater Vancouver, Greater Montreal, etc. I'm generally curious about those specific regional projections, since elections are often won or loss in these places.

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  29. Any sign of yesterday's Ipsos poll?

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  30. Any sign of yesterday's Ipsos poll?

    I don't seem to have access at the moment.

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  31. Speaking of the BQ it appears the referendum issue has just resurfaced:


    This is a real oddity as Pauline Marois, head of the PQ, was quoted this week as saying "referendum yes, but not right now or the near future" ?

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  32. It is unlikely, unless support was incredibly high, that Marois will hold a referendum in her first mandate. Holding one in a second mandate, however, is virtually assured.

    So, we're talking 2018, which isn't that far off.

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  33. I think I see what this Duceppe statement is all about.

    Jean Lapierre, on Power and Politics last night, said Marois made her statement earlier in the week.

    Duceppe gets wind of it, realizes it imperils his base, makes his own "We're gonna do it" to keep his base happy.

    If Eric's projection that nothing would happen till about 2015 is right then the Bloc/PQ could lose a lot of that base support before then.

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  34. No, sovereigntists have nowhere else to go. They've stuck with the PQ since 1970 and the BQ since 1993, so a few more years is no problem.

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  35. They've stuck with the PQ since 1970 and the BQ since 1993, so a few more years is no problem.

    Actually I'm going to disagree with you Eric. People do change with time individually. The public also changes as things change around them. Feels like, if recent polls are correct, the public may be slowly shying away from separation.

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  36. Don't let Quebec separate, it would give Harper a comfortable majority !!

    Hmm ...

    Could this be why a lot of western Canadians want Quebec kicked out of Canada, where as Liberals are fighting for it to stay ?

    Interesting to think about.

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  37. Gordo still doesn't get it. Will it take recalls to get the message through?

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/british-columbia/we-should-say-sorry-ministers-replacement-says/article1600882/

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  38. Just in Case You Get a Cheque....

    Sometime this year, we taxpayers will again receive an Economic Stimulus Payment i.e HST Rebate.

    This is a very exciting program from the Ontario Government.

    I'll explain it using the Q and A Format:

    ---------------------------------------------------------------
    Q. What is Ontario's Economic Stimulus Payment?
    A. It is money that the Provincial Government will send to Taxpayers.

    Q.. WHERE will the Government get this money?
    A. From Taxpayers..

    Q. So the Government is giving me BACK MY OWN MONEY?
    A. Only a Smidgen.

    Q. What is the purpose of this Payment?
    A. The plan is for you to use the money to purchase a High-Definition TV Set, THUS Stimulating the Economy.

    Q. But isn't that Stimulating the Economy of ASIA?
    A. Shut-Up or you don't get your Check.


    Below is some helpful advice on how to best help the Canadian Economy by spending your stimulus check wisely:

    1. If you spend the stimulus money at Wal-Mart, your money will go to China
    2. If you spend it on gasoline, your money will go to Saudi Arabia .
    3. If you purchase a computer, it will go to India .
    4. If you purchase fruit and vegetables, it will go to Mexico, Honduras or Guatemala ..
    5. If you buy a car, it will go to Japan or Korea
    6. If you purchase useless plastic stuff, it will go to Taiwan .
    7. If you pay off your credit cards, or buy stock, it will go to pay management bonuses and be hidden in offshore accounts.


    Or, you can keep the money in Canada by:

    1. spending it at yard sales or flea markets, or
    2. going to baseball or football games, or
    3. hiring prostitutes, or
    4. buying cheap beer or
    5. getting tattoos.

    These are the only Wholly-Owned Businesses still Operating in Canada.

    CONCLUSION:

    The Best way to Stimulate the Economy is to go to a Ball Game with a Prostitute that you met at a Yard Sale and Drink Beer all day until you're Drunk enough to go get Tattooed.

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  39. Éric,

    I happen to know quite a few federalists, some even in my own family, who vote Bloc but none of whom who will ever vote PQ.

    Shades of grey, Éric -- that's what will make the next referendum on sovereignty I-N-T-E-R-E-S-T-I-N-G!

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  40. Shadow - A lot of westerners want Quebec to vote to separate because that would force actual negotiations dealing with the problems in this country.

    It would also firmly begin the trend of moving power from the central government to the provinces, which would allow more people to be governed in the manner they would prefer.

    Why anyone objects to that idea I have no clue.

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  41. Lib/NDP coalition/merger talks continue:

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/liberal-ndp-coalition-still-in-works-despite-opposition-from-party-leaders/article1602682/

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  42. Maybe we shouldn't worry about the deficit!

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/deflation-is-the-real-threat/article1602694/

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  43. Ipsos Poll (12 June 2010): Conservatives (35%) Continue to Lead Liberals (27%), NDP (16%), Green (11%) and Bloc (10%).
    http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/

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  44. I see someone is still spreading the lie about the steamboat, that was never a part of the summit costs, got no money and has been in the process of being readied for the 100 anniversary of Toronto, where it was built 100 yrs ago. This project started about 10 years ago. It has mainly been financed by private donations.
    I wonder if Duceppe sending out 1600 letters to world leaders and others re Quebec will be its own country within a few years will be reflected in the next polls.
    Why will businesses be closed for 21 days, for a 3 day event.
    I think the liberals are under the impression that most of us hate Toronto, and that may be true. But, when they try to diss their city, the rest of us come to its defense. We look at the numerous jobs created, and all those wages will be subject to tax. Every dollar spent on the summit is income to someone else.
    And of course when the bill goes to the govt you just know the prices has been inflated about 50%, so who is ripping off the taxpayer.
    But with the liberals dissing TO and making fun of it, maybe no one will come for the big party to celebrate 100 yrs. And the opposite might happen, because of the publicity and media coverage tourists will come from all over the world.

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  45. http://www.thehilltimes.ca/page/view/dissent-06-14-2010
    Nanos! On Iggy and Green support.

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  46. There will be a Lib/NDP coalition. Bank on it!



    http://thestar.blogs.com/davidolive/2010/06/the-liberalndp-coalition.html

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