A new projection shows the Conservatives and New Democrats trending upwards, with the Liberals on the down-swing.While the Conservatives are stable at 129 seats, the Liberals have dropped one seat, in Ontario, to 95. The NDP has gained that seat, and they now stand at 33. The Bloc Québécois is steady at 51 seats.
The Conservatives are up 0.1 points to 33.3%, while the Liberals are down 0.4 to 28.0%. The NDP is up 0.2 to 16.8%, while the Greens are down 0.1 to 10.2%.
Starting with Ontario, the Conservatives and Liberals are now tied at 35.6%. The Tories gained 0.1 points to get there, while the Liberals have dropped 0.4. The NDP is up 0.2 to 16.8% and the Greens are down 0.1 to 10.4%.
In Quebec, the Bloc continues a slow crawl upwards, gaining 0.1 points. They now stand at 38.5%. The Liberals are down 0.3 points to 23.1%, while both the Conservatives and NDP are up 0.1 to 17.2% and 12.1%, respectively. The Greens are down 0.1 to 7.4%.
The Conservatives have solidified their lead in British Columbia, with a gain of 0.5 points. They now stand at 36.3%. The NDP is up 0.3 to 26.6%, while the Liberals are down a full point to 22.9%. The Greens are up 0.2 to 12.0%.
The Liberals' only lead (and gain) comes in Atlantic Canada, where they are up 0.5 points to 37.2%. The Conservatives are steady at 32.1% and the NDP is down 0.2 to 23.0%. The Greens are down 0.3 points to 6.1%.
The biggest gain comes in Alberta, where the Conservatives are up 0.6 points to 59.1%. The Liberals are down 0.1 to 16.6% and the NDP is up 0.3 to 11.2%. The Greens are down 0.6 points to 9.9%.
Finally, in the Prairies, the Conservatives are up 0.2 points to 46.4%. The NDP is up 0.4 to 23.1% while the Liberals are down 0.3 points to 22.0%. The Greens are down 0.4 points.
Adding up all of these regional gains and losses, we get gains of 1.5 for the Conservatives, 1.1 for the New Democrats, and 0.1 for the Bloc Québécois. The Greens are down 1.3 and the Liberals lose 1.7. In terms of numbers this doesn't mean anything, but it does give a good indication of who were this projection's winners and losers.
For the Tories, the gain in British Columbia is good news. But their big gain in Alberta is more or less wasted, and they made very little progress in Ontario and Quebec. So, while on the face of it, it looks good for the Conservatives, they aren't doing best where they need to.
For the NDP, they made good gains in the Prairies and British Columbia, important regions for them, as well as a gain in Ontario, where it is hard to gain some ground. But further losses in Atlantic Canada hurt them.
The Bloc is now punching above their 2008 electoral weight, so that is good news for them.
The Liberals, however, suffered important losses. A full point in British Columbia is huge, and 0.4 points in Ontario is also very bad. They are losing ground in Quebec as well, and the gap between them and the Bloc now stands at 15.4 points.