Monday, June 7, 2010

New Nanos Poll: 6.4-pt Conservative Lead

The new Nanos poll has more wild swings than a wacky waving inflatable arm flailing tube man.Compared to their last poll at the beginning of May, the Conservatives have dropped 1.6 points to 35.6%, which is still not a bad number. The Liberals drop four points to 29.2%, while the New Democrats make a big 4.5-point jump to 20.7%. We rarely see such huge swings from poll to poll.

The Greens are up 1.3 points to 5.1% while the Bloc Québécois is at 9.4%.

In Ontario, the Conservative jump six points to an incredible 43.2%, taking the lead from the Liberals, who must've clubbed a seal as they've dropped eight points to 32.4%. The NDP is up two to 19.1%.

In Quebec, the Bloc is up one to 38.6%, while the Liberals are down two to 24.6%. The Conservatives are down five big ones to 19.3% while the NDP is up two to 13.8%.

In British Columbia, the Conservatives lead with 39.3%, up three. The NDP is up two to 27.6% and the Liberals are down nine to 21.3%.

In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals lead with 39.7% (down four). The Conservatives are down four to 34.4% and the NDP is up eight to 25.9%.

In Saskialbertoba, the Conservatives are down 13 points to 41.7%, but lead. The NDP jumps 10 to 23.9%. Nanos continues to bunch Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba together, making it impossible to compare these numbers to any other poll or use them in my projection.

UPDATE: The undecided in this poll is 24.2%, two points up from last month. Not a huge shift, despite the variations in support.

For Alberta and the Prairies, I've used the seat projection at the top of this page.
The Conservatives win 68 seats in the West, 59 in Ontario, 8 in Quebec, and 8 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 143.

The Liberals win 13 seats in the West and North, 33 in Ontario, 16 in Quebec, and 20 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 82.

The Bloc wins 50 seats in Quebec.

The NDP win 14 seats in the West and North, 14 in Ontario, 1 in Quebec, and 4 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 33. You may be wondering why they drop in seats despite being over 20%. But their result in BC is nothing spectacular, the Liberals and Bloc are too strong in Quebec to give them an inch, and gaining a point in Ontario does little when the Conservatives are so high.

An interesting poll with a lot of big numbers, but as usually Nanos stands out from the crowd. They, like Angus-Reid, do not prompt the party names in their questions. This seems to lower the Greens quite a bit, which then makes the other numbers look a little different from what we're used to seeing with EKOS and Harris-Decima. But are the Conservatives really at 43% in Ontario? Are the Greens at 0% in Atlantic Canada? There's nothing especially egregious in this poll, but some of these numbers need to be shaved down a little.

43 comments:

  1. This is quite, um, weird, to be sure. When and how did the NDP jump up so high, especially when everyone else got over the NDP-the-new-Clegg-Liberal Democrats thing two weeks ago? There's nothing that can explain it.

    And seriously a four point drop? Well, the Liberal number is probably accurate, at least in line with other polls if you started reorganizing the Green vote. But seriously, four points? Wtf did they do?

    And how the hell did the Conservatives manage 43% in Ontario? I suppose its not entirely out of the ballpark, but everyone else shows a much closer race.

    This shakes my faith too because I really respect Nanos polling for its accuracy and depth. I can see the Cons-Lib numbers around there, but not the NDP numbers. Maybe it is right, but still..

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  2. Could you please report the Undecided in this poll if you have it, Éric? The undecided rate has bounced around a lot in Nanos polls over the past number of months, and might account for some of the large swings in the decided vote.

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  3. I know you don't have the necessary breakdown to do a proper allocation of seats for Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta, but one of the oddities of this poll is that the Liberals are unusually high in this region and the Conservatives atypically low. By taking your results from an average of other polls for this region, you allow the anomalously high Tory leads in Ontario and BC to be reflected in seats, but not their unusually low lead in the Prairies. Worth an ad hoc adjustment?

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  4. The thing about this poll is that the biggest change from the last election is in the Alberta/Sask/Man region - the one region you can't incorporate into your seat projection model because you always separate Alberta and Man/Sask.

    Well in the 2008 election the popular vote in the Prairies was about CPC - 57%, NDP 17%, Liberals 16%.

    This poll has Tory support down 15 points from the last election, NDP support up 7% and Liberal support up an eye popping 13%. I'm not saying I believe it for one second, but IF this were true - it would mean the NDP would go from 5 seats on the Prairies to about 9 and the Liberals would go from 2 to about 6 or more

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  5. TPG,

    Done, but with only an increase of two points I don't think that explains the huge shifts.

    OP,

    I could scratch something together, I suppose, but it doesn't matter much, there isn't much room for growth in the Prairies for the NDP and the Liberals.

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  6. So coalition advocates does this give the NDP and Liberals enough seats to try and unseat Harper? Only with the implied support of the Bloc!

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  7. Earl,

    It's the exact same situation, plus or minus a couple of seats, that we have now, except with a few more seats for the Liberals, and a few less for the NDP. It wouldn't fly in a million years.

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  8. Earl.... don't be silly, requiring the Bloc to vote on something to hold up the government doesn't actually mean that they get to vote on it. Its just "passive support for something they may or may not agree with until such time as they don't agree and the coalition government will fall... but that will never happen cus they said they like us"

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  9. I wish Nanos did more polls, this one definitly needs to be compared to another poll by them to see exactly whats going on.

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  10. Volkov, I think it might given different circumstances. In 08, the throne speech passed, then nothing happened for a month until the coalition stood up and said we can't stand this government.

    If it was done on the first opportunity, rather than first giving the government a blessing to go forward for a month.


    If it was done in the open rather than a surprise deal then the surprise anger might not have been there.

    And if the coalition was to acknowledge that the Bloc had a part to play in the government (or what that part was) rather than just claiming "oh no, it is just a rubber stamp, and they aren't getting anything out of the deal". Don't treat people like they are stupid. Noone participates in a deal to get nothing.

    Choose as the head someone that has won something. Layton for example did better than previous elections. Trying to install a man who took his party to its lowest election result in memory?? It doesn't sound like someone that people have alot of confidence in?

    I think those were the major mistakes made when the coalition deal was announced. Had the strategy been better they may have succeeded.

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  11. Barcs,

    I dunno. I think the coalition would've been a big negative no matter what really happened. If the strategy had been different, I would agree that there might've been more support, but I don't think it would've been overwhelmingly different. The fact that the Bloc was even there presented a problem for many people I know. The idea was simply disturbing.

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  12. Clubbing seals is popular in Canada. If the Liberals are down -- they didn't club enough.

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  13. Its interesting to compare this poll with the last Ekos poll. In Ekos you have about 13% of people claiming they would vote Green or "other". In Nanos you get 5% Green and zero "other".

    If you take that 8 points away from the Green/Others in Ekos and you give 3 points to the NDP, 3 points to the Libs and 2 points to the Tories - you get the Nanos numbers.

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  14. Considering EKOS's second-choice results, that isn't an unreasonable distribution.

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  15. It will be interesting to see how the cost of the G8 and G20 will effect this weeks polls, though it seems like nothing effects Harper's numbers anymore. The G8 and G20 were expected to give Harper a big bounce in the polls but with the price tag adding up he peobably won't benefit at all from hosting.

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  16. Peter. Probably because the committee would rather just look for ways to attack the government than look for real accountability from all MP's.

    Otherwise you might hear as much about Liberal MP Pablo Rodriguez alleged to have been driving under the influence.

    Or Judy Sgro who has sold (the paper only says transferred) her ottawa house to her children and now pays rent to them. The chronicle Herals says Toronto-area Liberal MP, John Cannis dissappeared when they tried to ask questions about who paid his wife for rent of their ottawa home.

    I wonder if any of them is trying to get pregnant but had a miscarriage,... "Airport worker says Guergis meltdown among worst he's seen"...Doesn't seem to jive with Mansbridges assessment of the tape.... I am sure the media will be digging around finding out if their significant others have any possible flaws too,.... right? maybe have a proper look into strippergate?

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  17. Probably because the committee would rather just look for ways to attack the government than look for real accountability from all MP's.


    Then lets start with the real bulldog John Baird. The CPC has no real agenda except taking power away from Parliament. That has become very clear in the last few months. Never clearer than in Baird's over-the-top, hysterical appearance last week. Since the CPC in the past has called Liberal and Civil Service staffers before committee they don't have a leg to stand on here.

    But it's really all about the "MEP" absolute control.

    Don't bother to spew about Lib or NDP members either. Neither has been in govt for over 4 years. Get used to it !!

    The "punching bag" is gone to be replaced by the MEP "spin" from the PMO.

    So much for accountability and transparency, eh?

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  18. peter: "Since the CPC in the past has called Liberal and Civil Service staffers before committee they don't have a leg to stand on here."

    ==============================

    The CPC called for them and they didn't appear.

    No staffers have ever been put in front of a committee.

    This coalition committee system is a new thing. Usually if the majority of the members of the the house are against the government they vote non-confidence and force an election.

    The NDP-Bloc-Liberal coalition strategy is to allow all confidence votes to pass and then try to unify in committees making it impossible for things to get done.


    Vote YES in Parliament when it counts, VOTE NO in committees when there are no consequences.

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  19. If the committees had the power to force an election by voting non-confidence in government legislation they would not be taken so likely and not be kangaroo courts.

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  20. Look Unreason

    There are tapes of CPC Members standing up in the House reading a list of staffers they want to call. This from several years ago.

    Get your story straight !

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  21. I must say Eric I'm getting really fed up with some of the CPC "spin".

    Committees aren't "Kangaroo courts" they are legally established bodies of the House.

    The only reason the CPC shills call them that is that the committees have fewer CPC members than Opposition members. Thus the CPC can't dominate them. Get used to it folks, it's a minority Parliament and thus there will be more opposition than govt. members. Plus since most of the committees don't have CPC chairpersons the Harper "Blue Book" on disrupting committee activities simply doesn't come in to play.

    Could the CPC possibly just grow up and work with the other parties instead of trying for total domination and control??

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  22. An MP’s Sunday afternoon visit to a seniors’ home. The federal purchase
    of powerful new military aircraft. A journalism student’s innocuous
    query about Africa.

    One thing connects them all — the Conservative government
    scripted each event using a potent but little-known communication tool
    called the Message Event Proposal.

    The Canadian Press has obtained almost 1,000 pages of MEPs
    from several government departments, including the Privy Council
    Office, under the Access to Information Act. The PCO, the bureaucratic
    nerve centre of Ottawa, has been conscripted by an increasingly
    powerful Prime Minister’s Office to vet requests for public events
    across the federal government.

    The MEPs have blurred the time-honoured separation of
    non-partisan public servants and political staffers and sidelined
    seasoned government communicators, sapping morale across the civil
    service.
    Full
    Story

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  23. Paul says:

    There are tapes of CPC Members standing up in the House reading a list of staffers they want to call. This from several years ago.

    =============================

    Fact: No staffer actually appeared in front of a committee, ever!!

    You are saying that the coalition majority in committee is doing a good job defending democracy and not Parliament as a whole where bills are invariably passed.

    You feel that democracy is being served by passing legislation in Parliament and then holding it up in committee?



    You actually are making a plea to Eric to shut down CPC spin??? Do you have a book burning scheduled for later this week?



    I know that Eric does not share my POV but at least he understands that we are better for looking at both, or in Canada's case all 5 sides of an issue rather than taking one point of view as the only possible way of looking at it.


    Are you one of the people bursting with pride that Siobhan Coady was/is as obnoxious as Baird?

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  24. Peter:

    How do you reconcile the controlling of the message that you hate with so much vehemence with Mr. Ignatieff's cross country College tour where he was met with exactly no hard questions?

    Surely you must be posting that this obvious dog and pony show is not what best serves Canadians. I must have missed your condemnation of this.

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  25. What strikes me so much is the petulant whine from the CPC side. "If you don't let me win I'm taking my ball and going home".

    Or "We got the most votes, we have the right to rule as God's party" !

    What they used to gripe about when the Liberals were in power.

    No you didn't get the most votes of the votes voted. If you had then you would have a majority of the seats. You got slightly over one-third.

    Secondly you nor any other party don't RULE !!! Parliament RULES, you are the current executive and like any other executive can be fired. That's a statement, not a threat. It's the way the system works.

    Fact: No staffer actually appeared in front of a committee, ever!!

    I believe Richard Colvin was a staffer ?? Oh but then he laid bare the CPC detainee skeleton didn't he. Now I see why you are against staffers, they can't be depended to adhere to the MEP!! Got it !!

    Grow up and realise you and the other parties where elected to serve the Canadian public NOT your individual parties !

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  26. BC Voice of Reason,

    "How do you reconcile the controlling of the message that you hate with so much vehemence with Mr. Ignatieff's cross country College tour where he was met with exactly no hard questions?"

    Excuse me? When Ignatieff came to McMaster he was thrown quite a few hardballs that made him pause quite a few times. I never saw anything that could be considered "scripted" or "controlled" messaging.

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  27. with Mr. Ignatieff's cross country College tour where he was met with exactly no hard questions?


    So ?? If the college students didn't ask them what's your problem???

    As an ex college professor Iggy certainly could have fielded them.

    What you are actually saying is that Iggy's message was SO GOOD that the students didn't need to ask questions.

    Unreason you are !!

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  28. Excuse me? When Ignatieff came to McMaster he was thrown quite a few hardballs that made him pause quite a few times. I never saw anything that could be considered "scripted" or "controlled" messaging.


    Don't worry about this. It's known the CPC shills can't function without their talking points or MEP instructions. Unreason is just so typical !

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  29. peter says: "I believe Richard Colvin was a staffer ?? "

    That says it all.

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  30. Volkov -
    "Excuse me? When Ignatieff came to McMaster he was thrown quite a few hardballs that made him pause quite a few times. I never saw anything that could be considered "scripted" or "controlled" messaging."

    ============================

    Perhaps that is the case and these went unreported.


    There have been a constant barrage of questions that Mr. Ignatieff has not been able to answer OR changes his answer.

    Clear answers to these questions did not come out of his University tour so despite of your perception I really don't think any hard questions were put forth.

    Perhaps it was not scripted but the crowd was stacked with people pulling for Mr. Ignatieff to final show some ability to connect.

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  31. peter says: "I believe Richard Colvin was a staffer ?? "

    That says it all.


    Yes it does !! You can't trust staffers, have to gag them obviously !!

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  32. Peter....

    you are embarrassing yourself.

    Richard Colvin is not a staffer.

    A staffer is a member of a MP's staff, someone who was hired directly by the MP (and can get fired by them).

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  33. For the most part you can really trust staffers, from whatever party they belong. What the committee is hoping for is a staffer who has inside and some would say privledged information to make a slip up and a contradictory story or opinion that goes against what the MP has stated.

    What the committee wants is a chance to generate some friendly fire.

    The prime motivation for the committee is to generate drama and hope for another scandal. The staffer would know that their MP thought that handling the isotopye crisis was sexy (high profile) and might not see the pitfalls in saying so. It would be common knowledge that young cabinet ministers crave more responsibility and publicity that goes along with it.

    It would be unfair to have Mr. Coderre's staffer to come in front of a committee to provide their opinion why Mr. Coderre is against immigration reform and what Mr. Coderre actual thinks about Mr. Ignatieff.

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  34. Peter....

    you are embarrassing yourself.

    Richard Colvin is not a staffer.

    A staffer is a member of a MP's staff, someone who was hired directly by the MP (and can get fired by them).



    WRONG !! That term applies to both MP's staff and Civil Servants. Get your facts right Unreason !!

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  35. Unreason

    What this is all about is CYA (Cover Your Ass) as practised by the Harper thugs.

    Never let anybody out without being sure you have their "message" totally pre-written and scripted.

    Apparently there is the odd person who can actually tell the truth to the PMO's lies.

    Gee !! That's really too bad !!

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  36. Peter only in your tiny world does the term staffers apply to civil servants. When Colvin was referred to in the press he was referred to as a diplomat. Similarly civil servants are referred as senior CS. Junior CS, or by their titles. You Sir are wrong, at least to my knowledge. Not only are you embarrassing yourself with your lack of knowledge but with your anger. Seems everyone here can be civil but you. Anyone you disagree with is spinning. Why don't you go and start your own "liberals and My Kind of People" blog"?

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  37. HST in serious trouble in BC:

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/british-columbia/popular-anti-hst-petition-ready-a-month-before-deadline/article1598673/

    At least 7 government members could be recalled costing governing Liberals their majority.

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  38. The absurd math of a Lib/NDP merger:

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/andrew-steele/the-absurd-math-of-merger/article1598351/

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  39. The absurd math of a Lib/NDP merger:

    The whole concept of two such disparate parties merging really defies logic.

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  40. I think a full-on merger would be a little fruitless. Some left-wing party, probably formed by disgruntled Dippers, would spring up.

    The Canadian Alliance and Progressive Conservatives were different sides of the same coin. The Liberals and NDP have in common that they aren't the Conservatives.

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