The updated projection shows losses by the Liberals and Conservatives, while the Bloc Québécois and Greens make some gains.The past 17 days of polling have not been good to either the Liberals or the Conservatives, the result being that the Tories are down 0.2 points to 33.1% and the Liberals are down 0.1 points to 27.9%. To add insult to injury, the Conservatives are also down one seat (in Quebec) and now stand at 128. The Liberals and New Democrats still have 95 and 33, respectively. More interestingly, their combined seats ties the Conservatives.
The Bloc made the seat gain in Quebec, and now stands at 52, along with a 0.1-point national gain to 9.6%. The NDP is stable at 16.8% and the Greens are up 0.2 to 10.4%.
In Ontario, the Liberals continue to lead with 35.5%, down 0.1. The Conservatives dropped 0.3 to 35.3% and the NDP gained 0.1 to 16.9%. The Greens are also up: 0.2 points to 10.6%. The narrowest of leads for the Liberals, but probably their most important.
In Quebec, the Bloc is up 0.4 points to 38.9% and stands at 52 seats. Their main competitors both take steps back, with the Liberals dropping 0.2 points to 22.9% and the Conservatives dropping fully half-a-point to 16.7% and six seats. The NDP, however, is up 0.3 points to 12.4%. The Greens are down 0.1 to 7.3%. The Bloc's lead is growing and growing, while both the Conservatives and Liberals are heading to new lows.
The Conservatives have dropped 0.2 points in British Columbia, but still lead with 36.1%. The NDP is stable at 26.6%, while the Liberals are down 0.3 points to 22.6%. The Greens are up 0.5 to 12.5%.
The race in Atlantic Canada is getting a little more interesting, as the Liberals drop 0.3 points to 36.9% and the Conservatives make a 0.3 point gain to 32.4%. The NDP is falling away, down 0.3 points to 22.7%. The Greens are up 0.1 to 6.2%.
The Conservative lead in Alberta continues, though the party is down 0.2 points to 58.9%. The Liberals are steady at 16.6%, while the NDP is down 0.1 to 11.3%. The Greens are up 0.2 to 10.1%.
All three main parties drop in the Prairies, with the Tories down 0.1 to 46.3%, the NDP down 0.3 to 22.8%, and the Liberals down 0.1 to 21.9%. The Greens take advantage, up 0.3 points to 7.3%.
Finally, there are no changes in the North.
The big winner of the last 17 days are the Greens, who have a net gain of 1.2 points in the seven regions. Their 0.5 point gain in British Columbia, where the party hopes to elect Elizabeth May, is especially good news. But they are still well away from entering the House of Commons.
Next in our cavalcade of winners is the Bloc Québécois, who made a big 0.4 point gain in Quebec and picked up a seat. It has actually been a few good weeks for them.
Aside from these two, all the parties have made losses. The NDP have lost the least, with a net loss of only 0.1 points. Gains of 0.1 in Ontario and 0.3 in Quebec are good things for Jack Layton, but losses of 0.3 in Atlantic Canada and the Prairies are not.
The Liberals had a net loss of 1.0 points, with painful losses in British Columbia and Atlantic Canada. However, the bleeding was minimal in Ontario and Quebec, if there is a silver lining to be found.
Aside from a gain in Atlantic Canada, it is hard to find a silver lining for the Tories. They also had a net loss of 1.0 points, but these came primarily in Quebec and Ontario, two battleground provinces. The party even lost a seat, and is now tied with the Liberals and NDP.
The situation remains relatively stable, but we're looking at a very oddly balanced Parliament with these numbers.