Monday, June 28, 2010

Projection: 128 CPC, 95 LPC, 52 BQ, 33 NDP

The updated projection shows losses by the Liberals and Conservatives, while the Bloc Québécois and Greens make some gains.The past 17 days of polling have not been good to either the Liberals or the Conservatives, the result being that the Tories are down 0.2 points to 33.1% and the Liberals are down 0.1 points to 27.9%. To add insult to injury, the Conservatives are also down one seat (in Quebec) and now stand at 128. The Liberals and New Democrats still have 95 and 33, respectively. More interestingly, their combined seats ties the Conservatives.

The Bloc made the seat gain in Quebec, and now stands at 52, along with a 0.1-point national gain to 9.6%. The NDP is stable at 16.8% and the Greens are up 0.2 to 10.4%.

In Ontario, the Liberals continue to lead with 35.5%, down 0.1. The Conservatives dropped 0.3 to 35.3% and the NDP gained 0.1 to 16.9%. The Greens are also up: 0.2 points to 10.6%. The narrowest of leads for the Liberals, but probably their most important.

In Quebec, the Bloc is up 0.4 points to 38.9% and stands at 52 seats. Their main competitors both take steps back, with the Liberals dropping 0.2 points to 22.9% and the Conservatives dropping fully half-a-point to 16.7% and six seats. The NDP, however, is up 0.3 points to 12.4%. The Greens are down 0.1 to 7.3%. The Bloc's lead is growing and growing, while both the Conservatives and Liberals are heading to new lows.

The Conservatives have dropped 0.2 points in British Columbia, but still lead with 36.1%. The NDP is stable at 26.6%, while the Liberals are down 0.3 points to 22.6%. The Greens are up 0.5 to 12.5%.

The race in Atlantic Canada is getting a little more interesting, as the Liberals drop 0.3 points to 36.9% and the Conservatives make a 0.3 point gain to 32.4%. The NDP is falling away, down 0.3 points to 22.7%. The Greens are up 0.1 to 6.2%.

The Conservative lead in Alberta continues, though the party is down 0.2 points to 58.9%. The Liberals are steady at 16.6%, while the NDP is down 0.1 to 11.3%. The Greens are up 0.2 to 10.1%.

All three main parties drop in the Prairies, with the Tories down 0.1 to 46.3%, the NDP down 0.3 to 22.8%, and the Liberals down 0.1 to 21.9%. The Greens take advantage, up 0.3 points to 7.3%.

Finally, there are no changes in the North.

The big winner of the last 17 days are the Greens, who have a net gain of 1.2 points in the seven regions. Their 0.5 point gain in British Columbia, where the party hopes to elect Elizabeth May, is especially good news. But they are still well away from entering the House of Commons.

Next in our cavalcade of winners is the Bloc Québécois, who made a big 0.4 point gain in Quebec and picked up a seat. It has actually been a few good weeks for them.

Aside from these two, all the parties have made losses. The NDP have lost the least, with a net loss of only 0.1 points. Gains of 0.1 in Ontario and 0.3 in Quebec are good things for Jack Layton, but losses of 0.3 in Atlantic Canada and the Prairies are not.

The Liberals had a net loss of 1.0 points, with painful losses in British Columbia and Atlantic Canada. However, the bleeding was minimal in Ontario and Quebec, if there is a silver lining to be found.

Aside from a gain in Atlantic Canada, it is hard to find a silver lining for the Tories. They also had a net loss of 1.0 points, but these came primarily in Quebec and Ontario, two battleground provinces. The party even lost a seat, and is now tied with the Liberals and NDP.

The situation remains relatively stable, but we're looking at a very oddly balanced Parliament with these numbers.

31 comments:

  1. Darn Eric that looks almost identical to the last projection ??

    And it you look at CPC vs coalition the Bloc swings the big power hammer, eh?

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  2. "And it you look at CPC vs coalition the Bloc swings the big power hammer, eh?"

    If it is only a set between 2 choices.

    But it isn't really. If the coalition forms government they can choose to work with the tories or the Bloc.

    If the tories form government, they can choose to work with any of the 3.


    So assuming every party has an equal willingness to work together (so long as they are getting what they want) then the tories would still have more opportunity to pass legislation. The coalition would find itself trying to please either the opposition tories,... or if they choose, be beholden to the Bloc.

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  3. Barcs: If it is only a set between 2 choices.

    But it isn't really.


    I'd differ here; it is down to two choices. And the Grits and Dippers make that choice.

    If they can't play together nicely, it's business as usual with yet another Tory minority. If they can, the shoe is on the other foot and the Coalition has the choice of working with the support of the Bloc or the Tories.

    The former is more likely. Duceppe has shown in past that he's open to a reasonable non-agression pact, requiring neither cabinet seats nor a veto for a time-limited but solid assurance of confidence. The Grits and Dippers (plus possibly the Greens) would have to avoid doing anything egregiously stoopid.

    That won't be hard. Ignatieff is less than thrilling, but he doesn't have Harper's mean streak that drove us into crisis after the last election. That alone will be enough, but he'll also have Jack Layton to tap his shoulder if he contemplates anything suicidal.

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  4. OK, let me be the first to say it: I called that one wrong.

    Harper and the Tories can expect a small pop from looking Prime Ministerial at Deerhurst and Toronto. However, that will be ephemeral. Temporary Conservative upside expected.

    With upsides like that, who needs downsides?

    For once, EKOS's day-to-day numbers might have real meaning. The Tories are likely to do better last week than this week. We might even see an impact next week.

    Even the transience of the effect is debatable. Fake Lake will wither away soon but spring up again in the showers of fall election messaging. (On that note, had I mentioned that the G8-funded flower planters along the road from Tony Clement's new home are in full bloom?)

    I don't yet have a feel for the long-term effect of the protests and the way they were handled. Anybody?

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  5. If the tories form government, they can choose to work with any of the 3

    In theory, if you only go by the numbers yes. In actuality the Tory agenda really doesn't suit the other three very often.

    So the Tories would be hamstrung on any bill they wanted to pass and should a confidence vote go against them they couldn't dissolve as the coalition could cry foul and be correct. Since a Lib-NDP would have exactly the same number of seats the odds of the Tories remaining in power for any length of time is virtually zero

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  6. John:

    long-term effect of the protests

    Somehow despite all the sturm und drang from the media I don't anticipate a real long term effect. Listened to somebody from Oxfam on the radio as I was driving and she was full of praise for the cops and how helpful they had been with Oxfams protest march.

    If stories like that come out in the next few days then a lot of the violence gets washed away. Did you go to that Common Dreams link I posted in the previous thread?? Could the cops have done what that suggested ?

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  7. "If the Tories form government, they can choose to work with any of the 3"

    Not necessarily. If the Tories drop to - say - 120 seats, it is possible that the NDP might not have enough seats to be able to ever give the Tories 155 seats to pass a bill - so we could be in a situation where the Tories would need either BQ or Liberal support....

    One thing we have not explored is a coalition between the two parties that are actually the closest together ideologically - the Liberals and Tories. It would be a match made in heaven - Harper could go on with his "class act" (sic.) as PM, while Ignatieff could be bought off with the post of Deputy PM and Foreign Minister where he could happily peddle his neo-con views on foreign policy!

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  8. Peter: Did you go to that Common Dreams link I posted in the previous thread??

    Which copied article, Catherine Porter's from the Toronto Star or Daniel Tencer's from the Raw Story?

    Could the cops have done what that suggested ?

    Which action or possible action are you referring to?

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  9. copied article, Catherine Porter's

    Agent provocateur !

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  10. My opinion on the impact of the G8/G20.

    CPC took it on the chin in the lead up and the security costs of the G8. The Fake lake a $57,000 media prop and even the whole media centre is small potatoes and is easily justified in hosting 3,000-4,000 foreign media. The free bar that the Fake Lakers (Clark and Weston) thought was great would likely have cost more.

    The Liberal and NDP continual criticism of security while at the same time supporting the unfettered "democratic" right to march wherever and when ever will leave the general public with the impression that they were more interested in supporting the protesters and their rights than the property rights and safety of the Toronto businesses and citizens.

    With the very restrained response of the security police (CPC) up against the anarchists supported by the Union stooges (Lib/NDP/Green) I have to believe there will be a subliminal and not insignificant shift to the CPC.

    The fact that Harper has become the most visible, respected Canadian leader on the world scene ever will not hurt.

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  11. With the very restrained response of the security police (CPC)

    Yeah sure Unreason. Like that viral You Tube bit about the cops charging a sit down protest last night !!

    You really don't think, do you ??

    Secondly World opinion is clearly that this G20 was a non-event.

    Harper and the CPC get no credit on this and it is expected the communique will be forgotten in lest than a weeks whereas the police "brutality" will linger on for much longer.

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  12. After Klein, and Oxfams view, some may want sonething a little closer to centre.

    http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2010/06/28/national-post-editorial-board-time-for-the-protesters-to-grow-up/

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/g8-g20/opinion/deficit-reduction-agreement-clear-welcome/article1620927/

    Are you honestly buying Kleins arguement for a bank tax, and against defict reduction Peter?

    For shame...

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  13. Read it and weep for our country.

    G20
    Wrap-Up

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  14. Are you honestly buying Kleins arguement for a bank tax, and against defict reduction Peter?

    Nice try aside from the spelling mistakes.

    Doesn't fly. Deficit reduction should ONLY be undertaken when the economy is working well which currently is a marginal statement.

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  15. I'm kind of disappointed in the police response. It appeared with their lack of interest in the black bloc that they'd just decided to be passive and avoid confrontation... but then you hear of and see stuff like the charge at the anthem singers, (Watch the clip, it's nuts) and you wonder what they're thinking; if there was any actual rules of engagement or plan. Why let vandals set cars on fire at King and Bay but charge peaceful protesters at Queen and Spadina?

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  16. Peter: Agent provocateur !

    With very high confidence, there were no such undercover police at the G20 disturbances. The last thing the police wanted was violence. They had no reason to stir up any more trouble than they already had on their hands.

    I also happen to believe that the RCMP, OPP and Toronto police would be unlikely to behave in that way, but my touching faith is irrelevant. "Who wants what?" is the compelling question.

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  17. Peter..... You are making a wonderful case that Canada needs a more balanced media. Sun TV news can't get here soon enough.


    DL, My comment was based on the current projection (what this thread was posted for....) In it the tories + any party = enough to pass votes.


    "In actuality the Tory agenda really doesn't suit the other three very often." ---- you keep saying that..... but after several hundred confidence votes spread over 4 years.... they still have the confidence of the house. It would seem to me that they are quite adept at working with one or more parties at any given time to get atleast portions of their agenda passed.

    John... The grits dippers can choose to work with the tories or the Bloc. (unlikely that they would get far with the tories after wresting government from their grasp dontcha think? Or the Bloc. That is 2 choices based on this projection.... albeit one is unlikely. The tories choose to work with any of the other 3. That is 3 choices based on the first A or B (tories or liberal/NDP coalition.) Either of those 2 would force the next level of choice.



    "The former is more likely. Duceppe has shown in past that he's open to a reasonable non-agression pact, requiring neither cabinet seats nor a veto for a time-limited but solid assurance of confidence."

    We don't know that. We know that is what was claimed the last time the coalition made a move. We don't know what was offered in the backroom to get the Bloc onside beyond removal of the Tories (and given the Bloc has supported the tories in the past.... just getting rid of someone you can support once in awhile for someone else you can support once in awhile.....unhuh....) We also don't know what the first coalition budget would have looked like. Whether the Bloc would have drawn a line for their support despite their assurance months before.

    It might have unfolded like you believe in your rosy little world.... but then again politicians might have moved to act in their own self interests. But that would never happen right??

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  18. John:

    "Who wants what?" is the compelling question.

    Who has to justify the scandalous expense??

    Mind I thought the stomping on seated anthem singers was really "over the top" !

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  19. Context, context, context. Were they rushing the four or five seated anthem singers, or the people behind them?

    While I'm certainly a (small-l) liberal, my heart does not bleed very much for the demonstrators, many of whom were enablers for those committed to violence.

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  20. Eric:

    Were they rushing the four or five seated anthem singers, or the people behind them?

    Does it actually matter?? Since those standing behind the sitters where only singing the national anthem?? Rushing either group was uncalled for.

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  21. Éric: While I'm certainly a (small-l) liberal, my heart does not bleed very much for the demonstrators, many of whom were enablers for those committed to violence.

    Think of them as football hooligans who have found a political rationalization for their violence. Think this blog breeds anger junkies? Those are the pros.

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  22. Does anybody know if Ekos will publish Thursday being as it is Canada Day ??

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  23. This article just ends on my page where Eric has the results for the Best PM (last 3 polls)

    Eric reports Harper at 36% , Layton at 24% and Ignatieff at 18%.

    That adds up to 78%... 22% are either for none of the above or for no real chance of ever being PM - Duceppe/May.


    If you take the support of the Leader that have a chance of being PM and work the break down it leaves Harper at 46%, Layton at 31% and Ignatieff at 21%.

    Both Layton and Harper are much higher than their party and Ignatieff is lower.

    These are the numbers that are making the Liberals avoid an election at all costs despite the polls that show them within 4% points of being elected a minority government.


    Eric is there any history of Best PM polls prior to the last elections? Was Dion as far behind his party as Ignatieff is? Was Harper and Layton always ahead of their party polling?

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  24. Darn

    You would think they could get it up by midnight Wednesday??

    So I guess we wait till Friday.

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  25. No, EKOS is going to a bi-weekly schedule starting next Thursday. So none this week.

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  26. No, EKOS is going to a bi-weekly schedule starting next Thursday. So none this week.

    Darn !! How is Shadow going to get his weekly "fix" ???

    Aarrgghh!!

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