Monday, June 7, 2010

May Polling Averages

Time to look at May's polling. Ten national polls were taken during this month (one more than last month), totaling about 19,840 interviews. Here are the results we get at the national level, with the difference from last month's average in brackets.

Conservatives - 34.6% (+1.6)
Liberals - 27.8% (+0.4)
New Democrats - 16.4% (-0.7)
Greens - 9.6% (-1.2)
Bloc Québécois - 9.6% (+0.1)

The Tories made a decent gain in May, while the Liberals also take a (small) step forward. The NDP, however, after a few months of gains, fall back down below 17%. The Greens see their gains from April slip away, and more.

The seat projection for these results is as follows, with the difference from last month in brackets:

Conservatives - 134 (+7)
Liberals - 91 (-4)
Bloc Québécois - 52 (unchanged)
New Democrats - 31 (-3)
Greens - 0 (unchanged)

The Conservatives win seven more seats than they did last month, inching back up to their 2008 electoral result. The Liberals, on the other hand, have dropped 11 seats in two months. The NDP drops back three seats, but is still up one over their March level.The regional results, with difference from last month in brackets:

BRITISH COLUMBIA (10 polls - about 2,310 people)

Conservatives - 36.8% (+2.0)
New Democrats - 25.9% (-1.3)
Liberals - 22.4% (+0.2)
Greens - 12.6% (-1.3)

The Conservatives make a big, and important, gain in the province. The NDP is down quite a bit, but they are still higher than they were in March. The Liberals are up a bit, but they lost 2.2 points in April.

ALBERTA (9 polls - about 1,790 people)

Conservatives - 55.7% (-1.6)
Liberals - 18.8% (+2.9)
Greens - 10.9% (-1.2)
New Democrats - 10.9% (-0.8)

The Tories take a step backwards, but are still well ahead. The Liberals make a big leap after dropping last month. The NDP also seems to be losing ground, but at least they are now tied with the Greens for third.

PRAIRIES (9 polls - about 1,270 people)

Conservatives - 46.5% (+2.0)
Liberals - 22.1% (-1.0)
New Democrats - 21.4% (+0.1)
Greens - 8.2% (-1.8)

The Conservatives erase their losses from the previous month, while the Liberals lose after a month of good gains. The NDP is stable, but considering they gained 1.1 points last month, that is good news.

The Conservatives take 67 in the West (unchanged since April), while the Liberals win 15 in the West and North (unchanged) and the NDP wins 13 (unchanged).

ONTARIO (10 polls - about 5,920 people)

Conservatives - 37.2% (+2.1)
Liberals - 34.9% (-0.2)
New Democrats - 15.8% (-1.2)
Greens - 10.8% (-0.3)

The Conservatives make a big jump in this battleground province, taking back the lead. After losing 1.4 points, losing only 0.2 this month is better news for the Liberals, but overall it has been a bad 60 days. The NDP is also down.

The Conservatives win 50 seats (up five), the Liberals win 43 (down three, down 10 in the last three months), and the NDP wins 13 (down two).

QUEBEC (10 polls - about 4,440 people)

Bloc Québécois - 38.7% (+0.1)
Liberals - 22.4% (+0.1)
Conservatives - 17.3% (+0.8)
New Democrats - 12.2% (+0.1)
Greens - 7.3% (-1.6)

After a big gain last month, the Bloc consolidated it with a tiny gain in May. The Liberals are up a teeny bit, but are still too low overall. After a loss of 0.6 points last month, the Tories are up 0.8 this month. The NDP are also up a little.

The Bloc takes 52 seats (unchanged), the Liberals take 14 (down one), the Conservatives take 7 (up one) and the NDP win 2 (unchanged).

ATLANTIC CANADA (10 polls - about 1,490 people)

Liberals - 36.9% (+1.0)
Conservatives - 34.7% (+2.4)
New Democrats - 21.4% (-1.1)
Greens - 5.8% (-2.5)

The Liberals gain a point after some modest gains last month. The Conservatives are up big, marking almost five points of gains in two months. The NDP has dropped more than three points in the same time span.

The Liberals win 19 seats (unchanged), the Conservatives win 10 (up one), and the NDP wins 3 (down one).May's big winners are the Conservatives, who saw gains in five regions and had a big bumps in seats. Their only drop was in Alberta, where they can afford it. They had gains of two or more points in Ontario, Atlantic Canada, the Prairies, and British Columbia - all good news.

Next would be the Liberals, who despite everything saw gains in four regions. Their gains in Quebec and British Columbia were insignificant, but so was their drop in Ontario. Their gains in Atlantic Canada and Alberta were of a good size.

The NDP only gain in two regions: Quebec and the Prairies. And both of these were of 0.1 points. Their losses in Atlantic Canada, Ontario, and British Columbia (all over 1.0) hurt.

The Bloc only gain 0.1 points, but their lead over the Liberals is huge and they are above their 2008 level. So, good news for them to be treading water.

The Greens had a very bad month. Ironically, it was the month of May. Except in Ontario, all of their losses were greater than 1.2 points.