Monday, June 21, 2010

PQ widens lead

On June 11, Léger Marketing released its poll looking into the provincial voting intentions of Quebecers. While there hasn't been much change since their last poll at the beginning of May, the Parti Québécois has widened its lead to 11 points.The PQ has gained one point and is now at 41%. The Parti libéral du Québec, on the other hand, has dropped one point to 30%.

The Action démocratique du Québec seems to be finally recovering from the fallout after Mario Dumont's resignation. They've gained one point and now have 13% support, generally what Dumont used to have.

Québec solidaire is steady at 8% and the Parti vert is down two to 5%.

The PQ gain comes primarily in Montreal, where the party is up six points to 40%. They lead there. They've also gained one point among francophones (49%) and lead in the "rest of Quebec" with 44%. Those are strong numbers. The only bad point for them in this poll is that they are down eight points to 31% in the Quebec region. They also have only 9% support among non-francophones.

The PLQ is down four points in and around Montreal to 36%, and down one point in the Quebec region to 18%. However, they are up one to 23% among francophones, and have 26% in the "rest of Quebec". They dominant among non-francophones with 64%.

The ADQ is up four points in the Quebec region and are now tied with 31%. It seems they have a very good chance of keeping what they currently have around the capital. At 14% in the RoQ, however, it is unlikely they have a chance outside of their 'fortress'.

The PQ would win 72 seats with this poll, while the PLQ would win 44, the ADQ 7, and QS 2.

Only 20% of Quebecers are satisfied with Jean Charest's government. A staggering 76% are dissatisfied.

Pauline Marois, at 25%, is still the favourite person to be Premier, but that is down one point. Charest is steady at a woeful 18%. Amir Khadir, of QS, is the only leader to out-perform his party with 10%. Gérard Deltell of the ADQ is up two points to 8%.

This poll also looked into whether Quebecers had a good or bad opinion of certain political leaders.

The man who came on top was Pierre Curzi, a PQ MNA who used to be an actor. Fifty-two percent of Quebecers have a good opinion of him, up five points from December 2009. Next was Khadir, who had 50% (up eight). Those were the only ones with 50% or more.

Rounding out the top five are Claude Béchard (PLQ minister who recently returned from cancer treatments) at 42%, Marois at 42%, and Marguerite Blais, a PLQ MNA who used to be a radio host, at 41%.

Other notables: Deltell at 35% (up seven), Bernard Drainville at 34% (up five), and Charest at 24% (down 16!).

Among PLQ voters, Charest's good/bad opinion split is 68-24. But he is the only politician that PLQ voters seem to like, as the next best is Blais (43/9) and Béchard (43/6).

Among PQ voters, the top three were Curzi (82/4), Marois (81/13), and Khadir (71/9). That is a good number for Marois, comparing favourably to Charest.

Interestingly, only one of PLQ voters' top 10 people has over 50%. For the PQ, there are eight figures with over 50%.

This seems to indicate that a lot of PLQ voters aren't enamoured with their party, but feel they have no other options, while PQ voters seem to like their leading lights very much.

While the Liberals should be in government until 2013, it looks like it will be a grim few years for them. But their majority is relatively slim - they need to hope they aren't out-voted by mistake or that a number of MNAs resign.

5 comments:

  1. No matter what is said the whole political leadership rates a D-.

    Every leader, with the possible exception of Duceppe, came out of that session substantially diminished. What a bunch of losers !

    ReplyDelete
  2. Is there much hope of the ADQ gaining support in the near future and even getting up near there 2007 level support, possibly becoming the PQ's main competition? I know their support is low now but I noticed it was at a similar level in 2006 and they came close to forming a minority government in 2007.

    Seeing I don't no much about Quebec politics was their major decline the cause of just simply themselves or did the federal Conservatives have any part in it?

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  3. RTL:

    The ADQ really did themselves in. Too many green MNAs and the leadership really didn't have much of a clue on how to run a big caucus. A lot of divisions came up, in part because the party wasn't prepared before the election began to thoroughly vet all the candidates and the resulting caucus was like a sack of cats.

    I'd say it was more the reverse, where the federal CPC damaged by the ADQ backlash because the CPC relied quite heavily on ADQ organizational linkages to support its Quebec operations, and those become collateral damage in the implosion.

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  4. RTL,
    Pretty sure the ADQ has no short-term hope of contending for government. With the exception of about one year in 2007 where the province had a collective bout of insecurity over some pretty trivial incidents relating to integration of immigrants, ADQ support has hovered at 10-15% for pretty much its entire existence.

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  5. I think the libs are benefiting from a combination of the unpopularity of Harper, and the fact that ontario generally swings away from the party governing federally. Ontario would rather vote green or NDP than a party that is so right wing. Hudak is just Harris/Harper light and people won't be fooled again by simplistic(lower taxes)solutions to complex problems. McGinty also seems to care and listen to criticism-people will excuse alot for that. I also wait breathlessly for a seat projection
    eric rw

    ReplyDelete

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