Tuesday, June 29, 2010

New Brunswick Projection Model

With the next provincial election set to take place in September of this year, it was about time I got to designing a projection model for New Brunswick.

While four "major" parties will be vying for the support of New Brunswick supporters, really only two are in the race: the Liberals under Premier Shawn Graham and the Progressive Conservatives under David Alward.

While the New Democrats are also in the race, they have never elected more than one MLA. And we must also beware of their polling results, as they have the tendency to shed much of their support on voting day.

Then, of course, there are the Greens, who will be participating in their first election in New Brunswick. It is unlikely they will play a big role in the coming election, but will undoubtedly benefit from their federal counterpart's renown.

The model is based on the same system used as in my federal model, using historical results to predict future results. However, I am also using a voting day modifier, which ups the Liberal and PC support slightly while reducing the NDP's polling support by about 20%.

I have not set-up a popular vote projector yet, but will once we get closer to the start of the election.

To show-off the model, let's use Corporate Research Associates' last New Brunswick poll, conducted in May.This poll had a five-point gap between the Liberals and Progressive Conservatives, while putting the NDP at 16%. That would be a historic result for the New Democrats in New Brunswick, as they haven't cracked double-digits in an election since 1991 and have never done better than 12%.

Dialing down NDP support, we get a projection of 33 Progressive Conservatives, 20 Liberals, and two New Democrats. Alward becomes the next Premier of New Brunswick.

At the beginning of August, when the election campaign should begin, I will change the site a little to give more space to the New Brunswick election. I will, of course, still cover federal politics while the provincial election is going on.


  1. Whither Graham?

    Looks like it now, but I wouldn't be so sure to write him off.

    NB Politics is so hard to judge. And can swing hard very quickly.

    Seems like Graham has been trying to sure up some of his base lately with government initiatives after the NB Power sale debacle. Might not be enough though. The NB Power sale may have defined him to voters in a way that hard to overcome.

    Also if the NDP gets a couple of seats it will be even more evidence of growing strength in the maritimes for the provincial parties.

  2. Very interesting development in BC. Big Business goes to court to have law under which the HST petition for plebiscite was pursued declared unconstitutional.


    We'll know in ON in 2 days how people react to an 8 to 10 cent a litre increase in gasoline prices because of the HST.

  3. Apparently it is the bill attached to the petition. Don't understand but it is clear to me at least that Bog Business is attempting to thwart the will of the people.

    BC consumers will see little benefit from the HST because industry in BC for the most part will have its prices set by the world market and will have not be able to pass HST savings to the BC consumer. Nor will they be likely to hire more workers because demand for their products is determined by world economic conditions not conditions in BC. Once again the consumer gets taken to the cleaners in the interests of Corporate Canada! No wonder small business opposes the HST.

  4. The NB projection model seems about right, maybe still a tad too generous in favour of the NDP. Without a current toehold, winning even *one* seat would be a feat for them - and considering that their leader opted to run in Tracadie-Sheila against a young, francophone, rising-star Tory incumbent, and not against the disgraced Liberal ex-cabinet minister to whom he finished a respectable second in 2006 in Miramichi Bay (the only second-place finish for the NDP in the entire province) suggests to me that he has a touch of the Elizabeth May disease when it comes to political prowess.

  5. Giving them two was necessary, considering the 16% they had in this poll. But, I doubt they will get 16%. If they actually do get 16%, they'd have a chance in three or four ridings.

  6. Very interesting Eric.

    Thanks again for all the wonderful work you do on this site for everyone.

  7. Don't be surprised if the New Brunswick NDP exceeds a lot of expectations. They have a lot of things going for them this time - you have a very rightwing and ridiculously unpopular provincial Liberal government (creating a gigantic vacuum among people who are middle of the road to centre-left), you have a provincial PC party led by a reactionary redneck who doesn't have the slightest ounce of "red Toryism" in him. The NDP in NB has a new leader this time who is a very respected ex-Catholic priest from the Acadian peninsula - who (unlike the previous NDP leaders in NB) is getting wholehearted support from NDP federal MP Yvan Godin's machine in that region. The fact that the NDP is in power next door in Nova Scotia gives the party added credibility that the NDP is a major player - and on top of that the NS NDP will be sending in volunteers and organizers.

    Its a little known fact that in the last three federal elections - the NDP in New Brunswick has won an average of 22% of the vote - a significantly than in Ontario! - and it wasn't just Godin piling up a big margin in Acadie-Bathurst - it was also NDP candidates getting well over 20% in places like Fredericton and Fundy-Royal!

    Take it from me - the NDP in NB is going to be a bit of sleeper this time.


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