EKOS's newest poll shows the Conservatives at a historic low - but still the Liberals are stagnant. Compared to EKOS's poll last week, 30.5% marks a drop of 0.9 points for the Tories. This is the lowest EKOS has ever had the Conservatives since they've formed government. But the Liberals are still down: 0.5 points to 26.3%. Despite the government's weakness, the Liberals still are unable to make any gains.
The New Democrats, however, are up 0.8 points to 17.4%. That's a good result for them, particularly in an EKOS poll.
The Greens are down 0.3 to 12.3% and the Bloc Québécois is up 1.6 points to 10.5%. "Other" is at 3.0%.
In Ontario, the Liberals have the lead with 35.4% (down one). The Conservatives are also down one, to 31.2%. The NDP is down one to 16.1%. The Liberals lead in Toronto with 40.7%, while the Conservatives lead in Ottawa with 45.9%.
In Quebec, the Bloc is up six points to 41.9%. The Liberals are up one to 20.3%, while the Conservatives are down two to 14.6%. The NDP is up one to 12.9%. The Bloc leads in Montreal with 38.6%.
In British Columbia, the NDP is up four points to 30.2%, and leads. The Conservatives are down one to 29.9%, while the Liberals are steady at 18.9%. The Greens are down three points to 16.7%. The NDP leads in Vancouver with 33.0%.
The Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada with 37.1%, the Conservatives in the Prairies with 49.2%, and also in Alberta with 57% (up five). The Liberals are down 10 to 13.4% in Alberta.
The Conservatives win 64 seats in West, 33 in Ontario, 5 in Quebec, and 8 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 110.
The Liberals win 11 seats in the West and North, 55 in Ontario, 14 in Quebec, and 20 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 100.
The Bloc wins 54 seats in Quebec, matching their best.
The NDP make a best-ever result, with 20 seats in the West and North, 18 in Ontario, 2 in Quebec, and 4 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 44.
In such a situation, it is impossible to imagine that the Conservatives would be able to form a viable government.
But if the opposition wants to form the next government, they have to do more than count on Conservative weakness. No matter how low the Tories are, the Liberals can't be happy with 26.3%. But this poll shows that the G8/20 spending could be taking its toll, as the Conservatives are down to 29.2% in Toronto and are slipping in Ontario as a whole.