This is an interesting poll from Probe Research, reported by the Winnipeg Free Press.
In short, the New Democrats, both federally and provincially, are the choice of Manitoban natives.
Provincially, the NDP has 57% support, followed by the Liberals at 21% and the Progressive Conservatives at 17%. Among the Métis, however, there is stronger support for the PCs but the NDP are nevertheless well in front.
Federally, it is closer but the NDP still holds the lead. They have 36% support among natives in Manitoba, followed by the Liberals at 33% and the Conservatives at 24%. Here again, the Tories find stronger support among Métis.
However, this group does not vote in high numbers. If it would be possible for the NDP to "get the vote out" in native communities in Manitoba, they could see a big swing in their favour, considering that the group makes up 15% of the province's population.