Monday, May 3, 2010

New AR Poll: 7-pt Conservative Lead

Angus-Reid is out with a new poll, giving the Conservatives a solid lead and showing the Liberals stagnant.Compared to Angus-Reid's last poll, the Conservatives remain unchanged at 35%. The Liberals have dropped one to 28% and the New Democrats have also dropped one to 19%. That is, nevertheless, a good mark for Jack Layton's party.

The Bloc Québécois gains two points nationally and stands at 11%, while the Greens are steady at 7% and "Other" is back on the board with 1%.

The best news for the Liberals in this poll comes in Ontario, where the party is up two points to 37%. The Conservatives are down two points to 34%, while the NDP is down big, five points to 17%. This is more likely the result of a statistical anomaly last time than anything the NDP has done.

The Bloc Québécois has gained three points in Quebec and dominates with 41%. The Liberals remain steady at 24% while both the Conservatives and NDP have dropped one point to 15%. Good for the NDP, bad for the Tories.

A little wonkiness in British Columbia, where the Conservatives are up 11 points to 51%. The NDP is up two to 30%, the Liberals are down 10 to 14%, and the Greens are down three to 5%.

There's more wonkiness in the smaller regions. The Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada with 41%, up seven points. The NDP has dropped seven to 21% here. In Alberta, the Conservatives lead with 66% while the Liberals are down five to 16%. And in the Prairies, the Conservatives lead with 47%, followed by the NDP at 31% (up 11).

After Quebec these regionals look a little odd, but the top-line numbers seem to give more support to Léger Marketing's poll.

The Conservatives win 73 seats in the West, 40 in Ontario, 5 in Quebec, and 9 in Atlantic Canada. They absolutely dominate in British Columbia (24 seats) and sweep Alberta.

The Liberals win 8 seats in the West, 51 in Ontario, 15 in Quebec, and 21 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 95.

The Bloc Québécois wins 53 seats in Quebec.

The New Democrats win 14 seats in the West, 15 in Ontario, 2 in Quebec, and 2 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 33.

Some things to take from this poll that have been confirmed by other polls: the Conservatives have a significant, but not dominant, lead; Ontario is still a battleground for the Liberals; the NDP is making inroads; and the Bloc is back.

In other news, the Montreal Canadiens defeated Pittsburgh 3-1 yesterday afternoon. They didn't play great, but Jaroslav Halak was there and they took advantage of the opportunities that presented themselves. Mike Cammalleri is looking great, and the series is now a best of five. My 'Montreal in 7' doesn't look so silly now.

79 comments:

  1. I think the BC numbers are the biggest problem with this poll. I think the NDP will be the party that will lead here while the uproar over the HST continues.

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  2. You have to make a 5% allownace, in this poll because of the inherent anti liberal bias.

    Liberals should really be at 33%, and the tories at 30%

    Also if anyone really believes the tories are at 51% in BC, I have some swamp land to sell you.

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  3. Can someone care to explain the "inherent anti-liberal bias" or were you being sarcastic?

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  4. This poll looks stranger than most from the Green perspective.

    It's not the overall level that's at issue. Too many bits have been sacrified in these comments on pollster house effects and national Green support is unchanged from A-R's level of last month. That's credible within the margin of error.

    It's the distribution of that support: 5% in BC versus 11% in Ontario? 0% in Atlantic Canada? The relative levels of regional support are wildly different from those seen in other recent polls. Even if all other pollsters are biased, it's hard to believe that their biases vary in a consistent manner across the country.

    Regional MOEs are obviously larger than national ones, but these regional numbers are so misaligned that I am forced to raise an eyebrow. I don't see much guidance here.

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  5. John I usually ignore the regional numbers due to the small sample size.

    But topline numbers from AR are always pretty bang on.


    I know some of the Liberals are upset lately, I believe this poll has Ignatieff within the margin of error of Dion's support too!

    So that's four in a row where Iggy = Dion.

    And that latest mishap about publically announcing GG Jean should be re-appointed has people bashing him for a dramatic and serious breach of convention.

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  6. Shadow,

    It is also about the hundreth poll in a row showing that Harper is unable to get his 2008 level support. The Conservatives are the only party that has lost support.

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  7. "And that latest mishap about publically announcing GG Jean should be re-appointed has people bashing him for a dramatic and serious breach of convention"

    The vast majority of Canadians don't know that constitutional conventions exist, never mind what they are, whether they are breached, or what the consequences are.

    And despite what happened two years ago, the vast majority don't care who the governor general is or what he or she does 99% of the time.

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  8. The BC figures look like ARS under-sampled within the City of Vancouver proper where the core BC Liberal vote lies. The 2008 BC Liberal vote at 19% was the lowest since 1984. It's highly doubtful that it stands at 14% today.

    Adjusting the BC Liberal vote upward and the CPC and NDP vote concurrently downward by the same proportion provides a better picture of the BC political scene.

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  9. PoscStudent its irrelevent whether Harper has lost support from '08 as he can make that up during the campaign.

    But nobody is talking about an election because he only needs to keep 1 out of 3 parties spooked enough not to go to the polls.

    Right now the leader generally seen as spooked is Michael Ignatieff. Opinion writers are already wondering if his bizzare GG press conference is a sign of a desperate man.

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  10. Harper has been in power for over four years now.

    This is about the 100th poll in a row that shows that Canadians are not prepared to hand him a majority.

    Stephen Harper = No Majority

    I also find it very disturbing that Stephane Dion, and Michael Iganatieff, are identical twins, and no one in the country with the exception of Shadow seems to know this.

    Shadow also has a very keen insight into the inner workings of the Liberal party, that also seems very strange to me.

    Were Ignatieff,and Dion really separated at birth?

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  11. Why are the Conservatives down Shadow? Why can all the other parties gain but not them? Why will Harper's numbers go up in a campaign and not the other parties?

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  12. Posc Student,

    If we head into a campaign, is it not plausible that the Liberals, would go up in support.

    Does not the governing party usually lose support, because they do have a record to defend?

    Does Michael Ignatieff, and the Liberal party seem desperate to you?

    Why do you believe Harper can NEVER reach majority government support?

    As for Ignatieff and the GG, comments, Shadow, and everybody else here I would appreciate if you would look at the thread below, and take a look at some of Harper's greatest hits.

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  13. 49 Steps

    Angus Reid favours conservatives at about +1 and disfavours liberals at about -2 according to the graph so at most a 3% shift at best not 5%.

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  14. Wow, talk about "wonky numbers." I don't think I've ever seen BC numbers like that.

    But one thing this poll and all other polls other than Leger confirm is the battleground-ness of Ontario. Leger is the only company so far to have the Liberals down as low as they did. And if Ontario is a battleground, that's good enough right there.

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  15. Did any of the pollsters correctly predict BC's result last time?

    BC is remarkably hard to predict. My best success in the past has been to take BC's poll numbers and adjust them in the opposite direction from the national trend, and that's how BC actually votes.

    As such, I wouldn't expect an especially strong CPC result in BC unless the CPC was losing support across the rest of the country.

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  16. John,

    Have you been following the British election at all for the Greens? There is quite a lot of parallels.

    For example, the Green leader is running in a riding which is close for them, but they're up against strong Labour and Conservative candidates; they're a strong party over the past couple of elections yet they've never gotten a seat, even in the devolved areas; the leader is relatively low-key but very personable; etc.

    This could be an interesting way to gauge the chances of the Greens in Canada winning a seat.

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  17. "Angus Reid favours conservatives at about +1 and disfavours liberals at about -2 according to the graph so at most a 3% shift at best not 5%."

    In the last election Angus Reid came closest to the actual results - say maybe they don't "favour" anyone at all - they are simply accurate?

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  18. PoscStudent the Conservatives aren't really down all that much from 2008 per se, probably just a point or two.

    Their 2008 election result includes their organization, money, candidates, incumbency, and GOTV advantage. An advantage that has only expanded this cycle.

    Political scientists disagree on how much those factors are worth on voting day, some say 1-2%, others say 2-4%.

    Opinion polls taken before and after voting day can NOT show these things.

    Take EKOS and their last poll before voting day. They were -3% CPC and +3% Green from the actual result.

    Could it be because one party has a GOTV and the other doesn't ?


    Depending on how a campaign goes any party can go up or down. But simply looking at poll numbers doesn't give you the full picture of how things are going to turn out on voting day.

    You need to look under the hood of the party machine. The CPC is a strong party which is why you can add a couple points to any poll you see here.

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  19. Still not only NO majority but actually reduced number of seats.

    Plus an election right now would not generate increased support for the Tories due to several factors.

    Not the least of which is the economy. Things aren't coming back fast enough. Lots of people still out of work etc.

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  20. Iggy vs Dion - very different people, but neither was ready for prime-time yet. I hate to say it (boy do I hate to) but the Liberals best shot was probably to go with Bob Rae this time. Geez is that a terrible statement on the state of the Liberal party.

    I figure that since Rae knows how to deal with mud flings, and most mud flung at him would be 15 years old thus of limited staying power, that he'd be able to deal with negative campaigning while still being a strong enough speaker with enough savvy to know what to say/not to say. I suspect the abortion mess was largely due to Iggy saying 'don't worry, everyone is on side' then ... oops.

    As to regional results, I recall a year or so ago the Green Party was leading in Quebec in one poll. Ah, found it - http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20090210/Grits_Poll_090210/20090210?hub=TopStories - Strategic Council poll done between Feb. 5 and Feb. 8, 2009. GPC at 26% in Quebec vs Liberals at 24% then the BQ at 22%. Even Green supporters knew that was the 1 out of 20 times a poll is off the map. I suspect this poll (in BC at least) is also one of those 1 out of 20's.

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  21. Volkov: Have you been following the British election at all for the Greens? There is quite a lot of parallels.
    ....
    This could be an interesting way to gauge the chances of the Greens in Canada winning a seat.


    Thanks for raising the topic. The comparison is certainly valuable, although there are significant differences. In both countries only a few seats could realistically go Green under our first-past-the-post systems. However, the UK Greens are ahead of Greens in Canada. Caroline Lucas, the UK Green leader, is currently the odds-on candidate in her riding, but the city is solidly Green to start with. Greens have almost as many council seats in Brighton as Labour and Conservatives combined.

    The UK Greens are nearer the cusp of electing MPs than Greens here. In both cases, it's a matter of when, not if, and neither party will form a government soon. Greens are the party of the sustainable future, not the party of instant gratification.

    I and many others in this country will be very interested in Thursday's returns.

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  22. Yeah, ARS was pretty well bang-on with the last federal election results. It certainly will be interesting to see how ARS will fare in Thursday's British election.

    ARS has consistently had Labour in the cellar at 23% compared to all of the other British pollsters.

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  23. Peter: "Plus an election right now would not generate increased support for the Tories due to several factors.

    Not the least of which is the economy. Things aren't coming back fast enough. Lots of people still out of work etc"

    Hard to say how an election would play out right now. Yes, unemployment is still relatively high, but on the other hand, the economy is doing fairly well. GDP is increasing again, job creation has been fairly robust over the last few months, interest rates are still low (but set to rise soon) and the deficit is apparently some $10 billion less than expected. Moreover, it's now generally conceded that the "Great Recession" was actually pretty mild in Canada. If you were going to run on the economy, that's a pretty enviable track record (not that the government deserves much credit, but since when does that matter?).

    More problematically for the Grits, it's hard to run on a campaign slagging the government for economic mismanagement when things are seen to be getting better (especially, when things are getting better compared to what's going on in the rest of the world). The time to run on that platform would have been last spring or, at the latest, last fall. Unfortunately, for Iggy, he got played by Harper last June and couldn't force the election he wanted, then he outmaneouvered himself last fall (though, that may worked out for the best for him, had he managed to force an election he might have been thrashed).

    In any event, it's likely an academic argument as the Grits have said they're not even thinking about an election until the fall (and I wouldn't bet on there being an election before next spring, at the earliest)

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  24. I think the Liberals could have done well if they had gone with Dominic LeBlanc.

    He's not from Quebec but he's french, he's younger but he has good experience, he's very smart and he doesn't seem to have the bagage that we knew Rae had and that Ignatieff ended up having.

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  25. In any event, it's likely an academic argument as the Grits have said they're not even thinking about an election until the fall

    That's making the BIG assumption that the documents issue won't trigger one.

    As to your other points re economy. I'm far from convinced.

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  26. Carl let's be clear.

    The reason that Canada was the last in and the first out of the recession is because Harper substantially reduced the tax burden, which sparked economic growth. Especially the highly stimulative 2% GST cut.

    So Harper does deserve credit on that front. That was indeed the reason why the recession was so mild and job losses stayed(relatively) small.

    I'd hate to have gone into this thing with the Liberal tax rates!

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  27. I would have hated not to have had the oppositions economic action plan during the recession because without their stimulus money our unemployment rate would have definitly been well over 10%.

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  28. Shadow,

    No one, not even Stephen Harper, believes that.

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  29. PoscStudent the opposition economic action plan was written on the back of a paper napkin in 2008.

    Harper rightly rejected it and consulted an expert panel to bring in a real plan.

    That move, taken together with his previous job creating tax cuts, allowed us to have the best performance in the world.


    Its funny, when the recession hit other countries were scrambling to cut taxes. Britain slashed their sales taxes. America did something similiar with direct rebates, they copied the payroll tax freeze.

    But we had already been cutting taxes!

    Why is Harper doing so well in the polls ?

    Probably has something to do with his internationally recognized and celebrated handling of the economy.

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  30. Shadow what you just said is not substantiated by anything. Canada benefited from relatively consistent resource demand from buyers like China and the relative lack of exposure of Canadian banks and Canadian consumers to the mortgage crisis.

    Australia had no consumption tax cut but benefited from the other elements I mentioned and their recovery was even stronger than ours.

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  31. OK Folks

    The time has come !!

    Who is Canada's TEAM ??

    Montreal
    or
    Vancouver.

    I'm hoping Eric can keep track?

    My vote ?? Montreal

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  32. Surprise move, government is selling off 100% of nuke company:

    http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=2981694

    The part I like is how the authorization was included in a budget measure that the opposition couldn't defeat w/o triggering an election.

    I say sell off a crown asset or two every year by stealth.

    The big one, the CBC, will need to wait for a majority of course.

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  33. Severe blow to CPC chances. Another studid statement by a dinosaur. Why can't these people keep their mouths shut. She no more speaks for the Harper government than I do.

    This will reopen the "Secret Agenda" campaign.

    http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/803859--aid-groups-advised-to-shut-the-f-up-on-abortion?bn=1

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  34. Earl this is the woman who was behind the famous O Canada lyrics change.

    When that flopped she said it was proof that Canadians hate women.

    We can thank Paul Martin for appointing this loose cannon.

    Regardless I predict this issue will come and go without anyone paying attention.

    We'll announce some new funding for vaccinations, clean water, and nutritional suppliments. Other countries will be free to announce family planning funding if they wish.

    And polling shows a majority of Canadians do not want funding for overseas abortions. So I honestly don't think this will hurt Harper all that much.

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  35. --- And polling shows a majority of Canadians do not want funding for overseas abortions.

    What poll?

    --- So I honestly don't think this will hurt Harper all that much.

    What hurts Harper is the anti-abortion impression given by the government. On this particular, specific issue, no, it doesn't really hurt. But it is part of a larger picture that turns progressives off.

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  36. Hi Earl,

    I saw that story earlier.

    That was Senator Nancy Ruth.

    I agree, that it was a dumb statement. Canadians have the right to voice their opinions, whether or not it goes contrary to government policy.

    She almost made it sound like blackmail.

    Now with her, and Rod Bruinooge, the CPC does look they are positioning themselves as anti choice.

    I don't think this is what they intended to do.

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  37. kevinsutton Australia had also reduced its tax burden quite substantially in the years before the recession.

    Its irrelevent the form it took, the end result is more money in the private economy.

    And you're right about both countries benefiting from a lack of exposure to the American/European subprime situations.

    But mineral and oil prices did decline rather substantially during the period.

    And both countries are commodity based, Canada more on the hydrocarbon side and Australia more on the mineral side.

    But in the end it was relatively strong consumer spending that kept both economies going. That's directly attributable to the tax burden in both nations.

    BTW - Australia's recovery is not stronger than Canada's because its decline was not as great. Our integration with the American market and manufacturing sector caused a bigger recession here.

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  38. Shadow she is a CPC member of the Senate is she not? This will not come and go. The opposition would be stupid to let it come and go. Harper must repudiate her is very strong terms.

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  39. Eric here's an article mentioning the poll. It was an HD poll.

    And my mistake it wasn't a majority, it was a plurality of Canadians (undecided was an option).

    http://www.thespec.com/article/741534

    48 opposed, 46 in favour.

    As for progressives they're probably the 46% in favour and they're probably never going to vote for the CPC anyways.

    So long as nobody makes a move against abortion on the home front this issue is a winner for the Conservatives.

    Every time the opposition talks about a hidden agenda, Afghan detainees, of a culture of deciet instead of the economy or unemployment it helps the CPC.

    I've seen some smart commentators making the point that the culture war seems to be backfiring on Iggy.

    People don't want to deal with it, they don't want to hear it, and they'll punish anybody who brings it up.

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  40. What hurts Harper is the anti-abortion impression given by the government.


    Absolutely correct Earl. This is the "hidden agenda" of the Tories handed down from Reform. They are and where against any kind of social progress.

    The thrust being to ban both "choice" and Charter.

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  41. Shadow,

    Are you that clueless or that Conservative not to realize that Harper didn't want stimulus spending? Had it not been for a minority parliament our economy would have been much worse.

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  42. Earl she was appointed as a PC senator by Martin. But she eventually joined the CPC caucus.

    Senate leader LeBreton should have a word with her. Harper need not get involved though, its convention not to bother with the goings on of the other place.

    However, I warn you against suggesting too strong an action against her.

    She's also Canada's first lesbian senator. We shouldn't be seen as picking fights with that group too!

    My suggestion would be she send a nice card to every person who was in the room, thank them for the meeting, and apologize for using some choice language.

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  43. PoscStudent I completely disagree.

    Harper wasn't opposed to stimulative spending, especially on needed infrastructure. What he didn't want (until pushed by the opposition) was a deficit.

    If we had a majority in 2008 Harper would have announced drastic spending cuts to gov't programs and the civil service and then re-directed those savings to pay for Canada's economic action plan.

    The difference between a minority and majority was never whether we would have had a stimulus or not.

    It was whether we would have had a deficit or not.

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  44. Shadow,

    "I say sell off a crown asset or two every year by stealth.

    The big one, the CBC, will need to wait for a majority of course."

    And that will happen right after I get pregnant...

    Dream on!

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  45. Tiresome rubbish, Shadow. Really, it's annoying. Most other people here are actually debating things and bringing in original ideas and perspectives.

    Please, save us all some time and link to the Conservative Party website from now on.

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  46. Shadow,

    Please tell this Prime Minister to get ready for Round Two:

    I can't help but wonder whether Cheryl Gallant will be able to resist the temptation...nothing like already having a track record, eh!

    A broadside against abortion would certainly be helpful -- at least for some of us.

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  47. You're generally refuting everything that is being tossed at you, so you're doing great.
    Really ?
    Please, save us all some time and link to the Conservative Party website from now on.

    This has taken way too long to realise Eric. He has nothing but "talking Points" to offer.

    Took you far too long to accept this. Sorry but this format is totally unable to handle this kind of political control. Far better to shift to Politics
    Canada


    Where there are real controls!!

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  48. Back off Eric.

    Where on the Conservative website can you find a plan to drastically cut the civil service and reduce gov't spending ??

    Stockwell Day wouldn't be caught dead saying such a thing.

    Believe it or not there are people to the right of the CPC (just ask Earl, he doesn't like them either).


    Libertarians and small c conservatives debate things and bring original ideas and perspectives too.

    Just because you don't like what they have to say doesn't not make it so.

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  49. It has nothing to do with me, but rather how you treat everyone else and how discussion is dragged down by your unwillingness to discuss issues fairly and honestly.

    ReplyDelete
  50. Shadow - I enjoy this site immensely (as do others) and Eric does alot of work in regard thereto at his own time and expense. I attempt to keep my own postings at a minimum.

    We should all respect Eric's wishes - even myself if I should ever attempt to cross over the line.

    But man your statement:

    "Back off Eric."

    .......Is not cool. And I am a fellow BC'er.

    Other sites would ban posters with that attitude. Ergo, I would suggest that you respect Eric's wishes.

    Sorry Eric - I just had to put my own 2 cents into this matter.

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  51. re: Shadow

    Given that the Conservative government paid for the GST in large part by eliminating an income tax cut; that the USA has a higher tax burden than either Australia, Canada, Germany, or France; and given that all of those nations have VAT or sales taxes whereas the former didn't; and given the sheer amount of factors which influence consumer spending: There's way too many variables and too many better explanations, (Resource recovery, government stimulus) to make a convincing case for that a single tax cut had a counter cyclical effect in domestic spending which in turn fueled economic growth more than these other factors.

    I guess what I'm getting at is you can't generalize and say low-tax means better weathering of recessions when the low tax model was actually the epicenter of the collapse. Even within Canada, it was Quebec which suffered the least.

    Certainly tax cuts, (or spending) can be stimulative, but you can't connect anything you want from any time to a subsequent event with no evidence and no elimination of other factors and claim a direct relationship. It's fantasy to assume that a policy will be a great idea in both good and bad times no matter what happens.

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  52. Addendum:

    I forgot to point out the shrinking savings rate for Canadians. Much of what Canadian consumers is doing is spending money they don't have, not money they're saving.

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  53. Back off?

    It's Éric's site. He can do whatever he likes. I would generally expect Conservatives to reach that conclusion on their own through the application of property rights rather than have to be told.

    Who are you? Sometimes I think you're only here to make Conservatives look bad.

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  54. Shadow is probably a Liberal who comes on here to make a fool of the Conservatives, to try a turn people to the Liberals. I know my opinion of the party is getting a lot worse by just reading through Shadow's comments and has made me want to support the Liberals more even though I'm a red tory.

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  55. The GST cut would've stimulated the economy, no question. It also contributed to the deficit. Increasing income tax on the lowest bracket (that pays income tax) was anti-stimulus, as was increasing payroll taxes (aka job killing taxes which Harper plans to jump by 35% over the next few years after it went into deficit for the first time in over 15 years).

    I like low taxes and logical taxes. Harper likes confusing taxes (look at how much more complex income tax has become since he came in via the many deductions he added, creating more loopholes than ever). To my thinking a pollution tax, as the earliest possible point, a resource tax (at point of removal from the ground), and land value tax (ie: one based on the value of the land you own, not the improvements on that land) make the most sense while income tax (punishes you for success) and payroll taxes (punishes companies for hiring) make the least sense yet those two are the ones we are seeing increased.

    Ah well, guess as long as we see the same policies from the Liberals no firestorm will erupt. FYI: the Greens are pushing for a 33% CUT in payroll taxes while resource/pollution taxes take up the slack - that is why I shifted from a PC/Reform voter to a Green one.

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  56. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  57. Let's move on.

    Léger Marketing has put up the details of their poll, if anyone is interested:

    http://www.legermarketing.com/documents/POL/10531ENG.pdf

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  58. Éric: Really, it's annoying. Most other people here are actually debating things and bringing in original ideas and perspectives.

    I'll add my respectful request to all regular commenters for lower volumes and more thought put into each comment. Not every comment requires an answer, especially those that are self-evidently silly (even if occasionally ingenious).

    If you choose your words carefully they'll have more impact. I skip right over ping-pong "dialogues" that are two monologues. On the other hand, I carefully consider every comment by Éric or Earl, even though I frequently disagree with them.

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  59. Eric you would likely have a more active and productive blog without Shadow. He provokes people with his condescending approach. Surely you've noticed that. While he never resorts to vulgarities he does essentially call everyone on here a fool. That's grating and serves as bait for flame wars.

    JMHO.

    Earl

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  60. I agree with Earl. I'm getting pretty sick of coming here because of Shadow and will most likely stop.

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  61. Before you move on Eric, we have had this discussion before. Shadow is not always that nice to others, but neither are several of the other posters to him. (49, peter, ProcStudent for example.)

    Why censor him for the treatment and not the people that treat him the same way??

    49 for example is accusing shadow of a personal attack yesterday.... but you don't have to go very far to find one going the other way. This does seem like a personal attack to me:

    "Shadow,
    Of course your version of reality is always 100% accurate.
    Every assertion you present as a fact again 100% accurate.
    All your baseless, and idle speculation, 100% accurate.
    In fact everything you assert is always 100% accurate.
    I am glad you are on this board to straighten out anybody, who strays of your version of the truth.
    I am glad you are here to inform everybody what reality is.
    Shadow, you are a font of information, and facts.
    I bow down to you. Thanks for straightening me out.
    I will never again question your obviously 100% accuracy in everything you say.
    How silly of me to believe that Master Shadow, could be wrong about anything.
    Thanks, Shadow"

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  62. You don't see the comments I reject, of course.

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  63. 2 points

    1) AR is the most accurate pollster so it looks like the CPC may have slipped a little from the 11 point leads given by EKOS and Leger. AR only had the CPC under by .6% and the Liberals over by .8 in the last poll before the 2008 election. Doing an adjustment on the best indication of accuracy available AR has the CPC lead down to 8.5%

    2) In breaking news the Liberal fund raising is down - 3rd Quarter in a row. The CPC raised more than all parties combined in the last Quarter where the country was just so mad at prorogation.

    If the Liberals can't raise a war chest in Q1 2010 when we had the Thinkers conference, prorogation, detainee document scandal they will be once again relying on Big Business and Bank loans to fund the next election campaign.

    They will be flying across the country in Air Inuit Gas guzzlers, if they can actually lease a plane.

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  64. "that's just a conservative talking point" ..... seems like a talking point in itself.


    Looking at the Leger data tho. The tories back to 19% in quebec... good result for them. and wth happened to the liberals at only 21?? Bloc is only at 36 too.. the NDP are doing well at 19.

    NDP seems to be doing better in ontario in this poll, but the praries number seems at odds with other recent polls. the must be above 17% there.

    BC numbers have been all over the map with different parties leading in different polls.... is this a 3 way race? or is one of the pollsters right??

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  65. Well Barcs people react to how they are treated.

    That's one reason if not the major one why I've stopped essentially posting on here.

    Shadow and his approach leave a great deal to be desired in the way of discussion. 99% of his stuff is pontification. Sorry that's not discussion that's rhetoric.

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  66. Barcs the problem as I see it is that each one of the posters you mention are pretty reasonable people, as are you. Shadow has a way, deliberate i think, of rubbing people the wrong way. We should be able to police ourselves and by and large we can. Before Eric took to reading every post there were good discussions on here. I've read both Peter and 49 admitting that their preferred party might be lacking or might have made an error. I've never read a word of contrition from Shadow. My own answer is to basically ignore him. I wish others could do the same. The CPC and Stephen Harper are not perfect and Shadow's view of this government and Stephen Harper are not beyond challenge. Yet Shadow never gives an inch. More importantly his manner of addressing other posters is condescending and often borders on rude. He dismisses the views of other as ridiculous, silly and so on. That's why we are getting the silly and yes often stupid and petty responses. Shadow is a bright guy who works hard to win arguments by distracting other posters by getting under their skin. That way he doesn't have to debate the facts. It's an old debating tactic that he has learned well and that he skillfully applies here with regularity.

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  67. I thought the quality of discussion has improved since moderation was imposed.

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  68. It has Eric, no doubt, but early on in the blog's history there existed a feeling of mutual respect and often if a poster got out of line another poster would bring that to the board's attention. My point is that the board or blog should be self policing. There shouldn't be a need for you to have to read every comment before it goes on the board.

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  69. Oh, alright, I agree.

    But that is what happens when a blog becomes more popular. The small gentleman's club turns into a rowdy bar.

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  70. Persistent said...
    Shadow,

    It is also about the hundreth poll in a row showing that Harper is unable to get his 2008 level support. The Conservatives are the only party that has lost support.
    ======================

    In 2008 the 97 polls taken in the month prior to the actual election had the CPC support at more than 38% on 11 polls. 11 out of 97. The CPC got 37.6 on election day.


    1) AR 40 on Oct 3
    2) Strategy Council 39 on Sep 29
    3) AR 40 Sep 25
    4) Ipsos Ried 39 sep25
    5) Nanos 39 sept 25
    6) Nanos 40 sept 24
    7) Harris decima 39 sept 20
    8) Ipsos Ried 40 sept 18
    9) Nanos 39 sept 18
    10)Nanos 29 sept 15
    11) Segma Unimarketing 42 sept 15


    There is a problem with polling and actual results. My theory is that there in no open qualifier questions such as who is the PM and the leader of the opposition parties and who is the MP in your riding. Incorrect or no answers to 3 of 5 of those would mean that these people will not vote and should not be counted in the poll.

    The pollsters should have a category, politically unaware and unlikely to vote.

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  71. kevinsutton which stats are you using to come to the conclusion that Quebec suffered the least during the recession ?

    My understanding was that Saskatchewan never really went into recession (going by GDP growth).

    They had recently lowered taxes, which is generally agreed to have a stimulative effect.

    Compared to a similiar but higher taxed jurisdiction, Alberta, they did far better.

    That's why I think this 40% mining tax that Kevin Rudd in Australia is proposing is just such a bad idea.

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  72. "The pollsters should have a category, politically unaware and unlikely to vote."

    Unfortunately that is probably 2 separate categories where one only covers the other in small amounts.

    People need to get more involved and learn more about what they are offered. Enough to rate one choice against another (rather than a mythical perfect choice.)



    Unfortunately based on a persons views no party covers all of them, so people feel they have to compromise a few of their opinions to get some of what they want.

    I don't know what a solution to that might be. I do know if I went down to my local coffee shop and asked 10 people an opinion question I would get 12 answers.... so 35-40 million people running would obviously be too much.

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  73. "But that is what happens when a blog becomes more popular. The small gentleman's club turns into a rowdy bar."

    I do need a drink,.... where do I sign up?? :)



    Eric, I do think that the tone has generally improved since you started moderating,... from the weeks immediately prior to it. (And I bet you do get so doozey's that need to be rejected.)

    But as someone else pointed out, long before that the gentleman's club tone was far superior in tone.



    Earl, The reasonability of each of them depends on the day and the conversation, (shadow included). There are alot of times when I think they (including shadow) are less than reasonable. The comment by 49 that I posted for one example. Peter said he responds in kind when treated in certain ways (I know I do). But I am not sure I see one side as having started it..... Sort of a race to the bottom, each side upping the ante.

    Maybe one side does it more than most.... I dunno, as Eric said I don't get to see the rejected comments. But I do think both sides do bait the other. And if you chastise one for doing something then the other side doing the same should receive same. If it is a problem, then doing it only a little... is still a problem??? isn't it?


    And Earl, thanks for saying I am reasonable (for the record I don't think I always am). Atleast someone thinks I am. Maybe I could have you stop by for a beer some night and tell my wife :)

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  74. "They had recently lowered taxes, which is generally agreed to have a stimulative effect.
    Compared to a similiar but higher taxed jurisdiction, Alberta, they did far better."


    Sask didn't really lower taxes so much as shuffle where they were.

    Alberta is not lower taxed. They have no sales tax (Sask is 5%), and they have a 10% flat income tax, where Saskatchewan's is 11,13,15%.

    Part of where Alberta went wrong was in their royalty structure. They increased rates almost immediately after Saskatchewan lowered theirs to increase resource extraction interest. Alot of companies moved/altered operations based on that.

    While Alberta does have lower taxes they do make up some of that revenue with user fees. Whereas Saskatchewan with more crowns interfering with business takes alot of revenue from them.

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  75. Shadow - It's true that Saskatchewan didn't have a recession (their economy grew every quarter), but it likely would have grown quite a bit more than that had US demand for its goods not collapsed in last 2008.

    The primary cause of any economic hardship in Canada over the past few years was the decline in foreign demand for our goods, and regions with export-based economies are hit harder by that.

    I have no idea how to measure which region suffered the most during the recession. We can calculate which had the weaker economy (it definitely wasn't Saskatchewan), but that's not what was mentioned.

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  76. Actually as far as income tax goes,... Saskatchewan is among the most taxed in the country.

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  77. Ira, the most glaring example in Saskatchewan of resources that could have been exported but weren't was in Potash corp. 2 years ago they contributed 2 billion in revenue to the Provincial government. It was a record year.

    Last year... they didn't break 5% of that.

    Oil dropped to below $70 a barrel. Think of the revenues that could have come in at
    $140/barrel oil



    While we didn't slide back into recession, the 5%/year or more growth we were getting/expecting to continue in the boom did drop to almost nothing.

    TD (and others) think we will be back above 4% by next year. Rebounding well despite the provincial NDP's wishes

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