Monday, May 3, 2010

New AR Poll: 7-pt Conservative Lead

Angus-Reid is out with a new poll, giving the Conservatives a solid lead and showing the Liberals stagnant.Compared to Angus-Reid's last poll, the Conservatives remain unchanged at 35%. The Liberals have dropped one to 28% and the New Democrats have also dropped one to 19%. That is, nevertheless, a good mark for Jack Layton's party.

The Bloc Québécois gains two points nationally and stands at 11%, while the Greens are steady at 7% and "Other" is back on the board with 1%.

The best news for the Liberals in this poll comes in Ontario, where the party is up two points to 37%. The Conservatives are down two points to 34%, while the NDP is down big, five points to 17%. This is more likely the result of a statistical anomaly last time than anything the NDP has done.

The Bloc Québécois has gained three points in Quebec and dominates with 41%. The Liberals remain steady at 24% while both the Conservatives and NDP have dropped one point to 15%. Good for the NDP, bad for the Tories.

A little wonkiness in British Columbia, where the Conservatives are up 11 points to 51%. The NDP is up two to 30%, the Liberals are down 10 to 14%, and the Greens are down three to 5%.

There's more wonkiness in the smaller regions. The Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada with 41%, up seven points. The NDP has dropped seven to 21% here. In Alberta, the Conservatives lead with 66% while the Liberals are down five to 16%. And in the Prairies, the Conservatives lead with 47%, followed by the NDP at 31% (up 11).

After Quebec these regionals look a little odd, but the top-line numbers seem to give more support to Léger Marketing's poll.

The Conservatives win 73 seats in the West, 40 in Ontario, 5 in Quebec, and 9 in Atlantic Canada. They absolutely dominate in British Columbia (24 seats) and sweep Alberta.

The Liberals win 8 seats in the West, 51 in Ontario, 15 in Quebec, and 21 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 95.

The Bloc Québécois wins 53 seats in Quebec.

The New Democrats win 14 seats in the West, 15 in Ontario, 2 in Quebec, and 2 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 33.

Some things to take from this poll that have been confirmed by other polls: the Conservatives have a significant, but not dominant, lead; Ontario is still a battleground for the Liberals; the NDP is making inroads; and the Bloc is back.

In other news, the Montreal Canadiens defeated Pittsburgh 3-1 yesterday afternoon. They didn't play great, but Jaroslav Halak was there and they took advantage of the opportunities that presented themselves. Mike Cammalleri is looking great, and the series is now a best of five. My 'Montreal in 7' doesn't look so silly now.