Thursday, May 13, 2010

New EKOS Poll: 6.5-pt Conservative Lead

EKOS has its weekly poll out, and it shows gains for all three of the main national parties.The Conservatives have gained 0.5 points since last week, now at 33.6%. The Liberals are up one point to 27.1%, and the New Democrats are up 0.9 points to 16.9%.

The Greens are down 0.9 to 10.6% and the Bloc Québécois is down 0.9 points to 9.3%. "Other" is also down to 2.5%.

Like other polls have shown, Conservative strength is based on male support. Among males they are at 37.4%, compared to 29.7% among females. The Liberals split 29.7% to 28.2% among males and females.

In Ontario, the Conservatives are steady at 36.2%, while the Liberals are up two to 35.1%. The NDP is stable at 16.3%. The Liberals lead in Toronto (41.4%) and Ottawa (37.9%), where they are up about seven points.

In Quebec, the Bloc is down two points to 37.7% but still well ahead of the Liberals, who are down one to 20.4%. The Conservatives are down two to 16% and the NDP is up four to 13.6%. In Montreal, the Bloc leads with 35.6%.

In British Columbia, the Conservatives are up four to 34.0%. The NDP is steady at 26.3%, the Liberals are down one to 23.5%, and the Greens are steady at 15.0%. In Vancouver, the Conservatives lead with 33.9%, followed by the Liberals at 26.7% (up eight) and the NDP at 22.7% (down eight).

The Conservatives lead in Atlantic Canada with 37.8% (which is actually where they were last week), Alberta with 55.4% (up five), and in the Prairies with 45.4%. The Liberals are down five points to 25.3% there.

Significantly, the Liberals do not lead in any region of the country.

The Conservatives win 66 seats in the West, 47 in Ontario, 6 in Quebec, and 12 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 131.

The Liberals win 16 seats in the West, 45 in Ontario, 15 in Quebec, and 17 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 93.

The Bloc wins 52 seats in Quebec.

The NDP wins 13 seats in the West, 14 in Ontario, 2 in Quebec, and 3 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 32.

A recent change in the poll projections is that the Liberals and NDP now no longer out-number the Conservatives. At this rate, though the Tories look to have some losses in both seats and support, they would still be safe as a minority government.

Both the Conservatives and the Liberals are starting to show some life, but they are still well below where they want to be.


  1. One Green's take on the latest from EKOS.

    Overall, the EKOS Green numbers have settled a bit. The latest 10.6% is more or less the current Green base. There's a general revulsion with other parties' activities on the Hill, but Greens have not capitalized on this with a clear and audible call for a better approach to politics. That said, the opportunity is still there.

    At a finer level of granularity, polling numbers are satisfactory. In fact, they're better for the party than those from April 22nd when the party polled 2% higher, but with an amazingly even distribution across the country. At the time I reflected on the Green Party's curse of being the most truly national party. This week we're seeing some variation between regions which would hold out more promise on the hustings.

    First, the battleground provinces. In BC, the three largest parties have spread a bit, but the Greens are closing the gap on third place and are still in the running. In Ontario, Green support is still above the magic 10% threshold.

    Elsewhere, Frank Graves noted that the Greens are "running surprisingly strongly in Quebec" at 9.1%. However, that's between last week's 8.4% and the previous week's 10.4% and well down from the 12% the week before. Perhaps Graves needs to take a closer look at his past numbers. The party has been doing very well in the province, thank you.

    Atlantic Canada and Saskitoba are both a bit low but as previously discussed, this is not an insurmountable problem from the Green perspective.

    And finally, Alberta. For the second week in a row the Green Party is in second place. Last week I said that this is comedy relief, not reality. It's still chuckle time but at some point the joke will be over. Will the next non-blue seat from that province be green?

  2. According to Nanos Green support in Quebec is ZERO!

    BTW: Isn't it odd that this poll has the Tories up 0.6%, the Liberals up 1% and the NDP up 1% - yet the headlines on the poll all say "Tory support growing". In reality Liberal and NDP support grew more than Tory support did!

  3. No majority there, move on !

  4. John: There's a general revulsion with other parties' activities on the Hill...

    Ready, fire, aim.

    On reflection, all parties in the House have been working towards an accomodation on the detainee documents. It's a tough slog but they seem to be making progress and are definitely reporting optimism that their cooperation will bear fruit. The three largest parties are climbing in the polls. Coincidence?

    If not, it's a good sign. Not tactically for the Green Party, but good for the nation as a whole. I hope we'll see more of this behaviour.

  5. Ready, fire, aim.

    That the one where they shoot self in foot ?

  6. John

    It makes sense that the Green would be a strong secondary "power" in Alberta who has a long strong history in environmentalism.... Bike paths in cities, Parks, protecting Grizzly Bears etc.

    It always struck me as ironic that Alberta gets labelled as red-necks and actually take steps to to protect and live with nature , where BC is labeled as hippy tree huggers but cut down trees whereever and whenever and have massive developments on every pristine wilderness possible.

    PS I moved from bicycle commuter in Calgary to a BC lake front. The limited wildness developments in Alberta force the price way to high.

    If I every got upset with the CPC my next choice would likely be Green... almost any Green expect Ms. May.

  7. In other breaking news ... Ignatieff finally locks up another Major Press endorsement (besides the STAR)....

    Pravda in Russia picks him as the next Canadian Prime Minister

    The article is actually quite insightful and shows how the rest of the World sees the Liberal support on the Budget and Ignatieff supporting Harper in a coallition type agreement.

  8. BC "Voice of Reason",

    The fact that Pravda, Russia's Bolshevik newspaper, puts out that article with "Russian Duke" in the title, while being almost two years behind in the times and expecting the next election in 2012, rails against the Ignatieff family ties to the old Tsarist regime, etc. etc., should discredit the article right away.

  9. Reality check...

    We really are in a Majority Government situation.

    CPC > NDP + Lib

    If the government is to be defeated it will be because the BLOC decides to support the Liberal/NDP coalition.

    That would make a Harper Majority more likely.

    In the Martin Minority, it was a coalition NDP + Lib > CPC.

    Harper was in the same position as The Liberal/NDP coalition is now. He was prepared to support the Liberals so as not to let the BLOC control the government...

    If Harper were to immediately vote with the BLOC and force out the Liberals the Liberals would have come back with a majority.

    This broke down quickly as the Liberals were exposed as thieves and crooks and unfit to govern by adscam.

    Jack Layton is a idiot. If he were to figure out what single priority (Not writing a budget) the NDP would like to deliver to their supporters. He could deliver that tomorrow by publicly offering 3 years support to Harper providing that either:

    1) a certain # child care spots get opened

    2) there is a referendum on proportional rep

    3)The unions - civil service / auto workers gets stronger benefits

    4) whatever the NDP really wants (who can really tell as they never seriously state what they want)
    as they have no expect ions of being able to do it)

    It would be political suicide for Harper not to agree to one big concession to the NDP for 3 years of majority government.

    The NDP would have to hold its nose an vote to cut the election subsidy, limit $ to CBC and Women groups and all the other thing a Harper Majority might do....BUT would have delivered on something that the NDP supporters really want.

    The Liberals meanwhile could go back to being an effective opposition rather than scandal diggers as there was no threat of an election for 3 years.

    That is what is happening in Britain. Cons get 5 year Majority...Lib/Dem gets the prop rep referendum.

  10. Lord, that pravda article is priceless. It even reads like classic Pravda from back in the day. Who knows, maybe that's even intentional.

  11. John its not realistic to peg the Green base at 10.6%.

    A base is generally thought of as a party's floor, that they cannot go lower than. Green's is probably around 6%.

    Considering the previous three election results had Green support at a lower level than your 10.6% figure it stands to reason that the Green base is lower.

    A portion of that number is growth, not base.

    The problem with growth is that it can disappear.

  12. Does anyone know what happened to the motion to look into Derek Lee's lobbying activities at the gov't operations committee yesterday ?

    This Jaffer thing has the feeling of the British expenses scandal. Its starting to cut across party lines.

    #1 question today is what the heck is the Liberal party president's involvement in all of this.

    Just keeps getting weirder and weirder.

  13. I have a better solution. Since the federal Liberals and the Tories already agree on about 90% of the issues in federal politics these days and the Liberals have always been the "cheapest date in town" when Harper needs to throw a small bone to one of the opposition parties in order to survive - why doesn't Ignatieff publicly ask harper to form a stable Liberal-Conservative coalition government modeled on the Cameron/Clegg accord in the UK?

  14. Shadow says : "#1 question today is what the heck is the Liberal party president's involvement in all of this. "


    To date the only money changing hands in this whole affair is to Lib Pres Apps who took $5,000 from "gangster" Guialini and supposedly told him that his "pump and dump" schemes were illegal. "Gangster" Guilani apparently was okay with this advice and thought the 5G well spent!!??

  15. Shadow,

    Apps "involvement" has nothing to do with the current situation. He worked for a company long before he became President, and this "involvement" had zero to do with the Liberals or with any access to the Liberals, to the government, or to anything. If you want to go after Apps for doing his job in the corporate world, good luck.

    "Cutting across party lines" my ass.

  16. On the Guergis airport tantrum.

    Mansbridge said that after watching the video tapes of the event from several different angles HE could not see and behaviour not seen every day at most airports.

    Why did this become such a big deal? It an underlying root cause of Harper wanting to distance the CPC from Guergis. There was no apparent counter-point or explanation to the story and Geurgis got convicted of having a tantrum in the Airport.

    Who was the whistle blower?

    What was his/her motivation?

    Who broke the story and why did they not get verification of facts?

    Is the CBC or any media investigating this angle of the story that got the whole sorrid affair going?

  17. While Mansbridge said it wasn't that bad, it was still clearly inappropriate behaviour for a minister.

  18. Shadow: John its not realistic to peg the Green base at 10.6%.

    A base is generally thought of as a party's floor, that they cannot go lower than.

    10.6% seems to be a reasonable Green base with respect to EKOS polls for the last half a year. Take a look at the graph on page 3 of the latest EKOS poll results.

    This is a polling base with respect to one pollster. Apply bistromathics as desired to predict actual election results.

    And yes, "base" is not an inviolable concept, except in the limiting case: the indisputable base for the Greens is 0%. As it is for the Tories, Grits, Dippers and Bloc.

  19. sorry for question of Apps holding Gilliani's 5K.... i looked it up

    "In November 2006:
    Mr. Nazim Gillani of International Strategic Investments approached Fasken Martineau through one its partners, Alfred Apps, in connection with legal advice/services for International Strategic Investments. Mr. Apps met with Mr. Gillani, received documents from Mr. Gillani and accepted a retainer cheque from Mr. Gillani.
    Mr. Apps previously had no knowledge of, or acquaintance with, Mr. Gillani.
    Very shortly thereafter, Fasken Martineau declined to act on behalf of International Strategic Investments. Mr. Apps so advised Mr. Gillani and returned the retainer to Mr. Gillani.
    Fasken Martineau has had no professional dealings with Mr. Gillani or International Strategic Investments in the intervening period. "

    Apps wisely gave the money back.

    However at the time, Nov 2006, (according to wikapedia) Apps a very signifcant and
    prominent Liberal Ignatieff supporter

    " He has played a key role in recruiting a number of prominent Liberal politicians into public life including former Prime Minister Paul Martin and current Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff. He was also a backer of Ignatieff's 2006 and 2008 Liberal leadership bids."

    This gets interesting as far as all the lobbying crap that we are rightly worried about. Having a relationship with Apps who was a signifacnt back room power broker for Ignatieff is signifcantly more powerful that having a relationship with Jaffer and even Guergis.

    There can be no argument that over their careers Apps will have and has had had much more access to real govenment power than Jaffer and/or Guergis.

    I know it becomes almost impossible but I sure would like to know who is lobbying Apps and the backroom boys of the CPC and Liberals even more than the MPs.

    If somehow you can get Apps to owe you a favour there is a very very very high chance that in the next 10 years the Government of Canada would be able to pay you back.

  20. eric

    Why are the tapes for Mansbridge's eyes only?

    Does he have special security clearance? Maybe Mansbridge will go over the detainee documents :)

    We saw the tasering in Vancouver, surely we should be able to make our own judgement about Guergis in PEI.

  21. Dl actually I'm all in favour of a CPC - Liberal coalition. It would do a number of things. Once again Canada would have a great Canadian Centrist Party with support from all regions of Canada. While fiscally conservative, the party would be socially liberal. The wing nuts on both the left and right could go off and form their own stumps. The nation would get good government that it doesn't get with minority governments. In addition it would force the francophone's of Quebec - the 70% who don't support sovereignty to take another look at the Federal parties and decide if they want to be part of the solution or part of the problem. Nothing wrong with that idea at all.

  22. John,

    Yes, Ekos has shown the Green's at more or less 10% for the past year. Then again, in the month leading up to the last election (when the Green's had all sorts of advantages which won't be replicated any time soon) EKOS also showed the Greens polling consistently at more than 10% (and more often than not, 11% or 12%). Their actual result when it mattered? 6.8%. Not even close.

    10% isn't their base, really, it's probably the best they could do under perfect circumstances.

    Shadow's right, the Green's actual base, i.e., people will vote for them no matter how wretched a campaign they run, is probably close to 3-4% (i.e., the people who voted for them in 2004 and 2006 when they didn't have the edge that Dion gave them in 2008), while the same number for the Grits, Tories and NDP is probably closer to 25%, 25% and 14%, respectively.

  23. Eric congratulations on the Canadiens victory last night. Great game.

  24. BC Voice of Reason what concerns me is that Derek Lee never registered as a lobbyist.

    Yet his job description on that website was far, far worse than Jaffer's website description.

    Which was the big "gotcha" when Jaffer testified.

    Even in cases where there is no actual influence its illegal to even brag or advertise to people that you can.

    Either Derek Lee or his law firm might be in big trouble.

    Same goes for Jaffer.

    This lobbying issue cuts across party lines.

    I think we need an accountability act 2.0 to clean up this mess.

  25. BC VoR - That Alberta takes those steps voluntarily is entirely keeping with the empirical data that show wealthier = healthier. Stronger economies tend to protect their environment more because they have more discretionary income.

    As such, the path to environmental protection is policy friendly to wealth-creation.

  26. Hi,

    I think your numbers on the male/female Liberal support are a bit off.

    The poll says:

    Male - 26.0%
    Female - 28.2%

  27. Carl: 10% isn't their base, really, it's probably the best they could do under perfect circumstances.

    The bistromathics of mapping polls to election outcomes pegged the silly meter a while back. There seems to be little point in going there again, so "base" in the first comment on this posting means "Base relative to polls by the same pollster, EKOS." Period.

    Computations beyond that may amuse some, but enlightenment is more questionable.

  28. Re: Earl

    I think your prescription is pretty off. Certainly the Liberals are aware that any coalition would just result in the deterioration of their political situation as usually happens to minority partners in government. As it stands now, the only party likely to replace the CPC is the Liberals, so it's not like they're starved for a chance to matter. FPTP doesn't quite give an incentive for the two biggest parties to be allies like MMP does in Germany.

    I think it's also fair to say that the cleavage point between the Conservatives and Liberals is not quite in the center of the political spectrum... and you can't underestimate the level of dislike of the Liberal party organization in the ranks of Conservatives, or in the west. (Which isn't necessarily based just on ideology) Unless the Liberals and Conservatives are on the same ballot, you'd have a lot of MPs who are vulnerable to Reform 2.0 or the NDP.

    I would say that such an alliance is fraught with peril for the parties, and I don't think the majority of Liberals or any significant number of Conservatives would be interested in any kind of classic-liberal coalition. Not in the current system anyway.

  29. KS:

    I'd actually suggest an amalgamation of the CPC and LPOC. After all they are simply two competing elites who as DL said really don't have major differences. Look at Iggy trying to be different from Harper. Sure the new party would lose votes on the left and right. We'd be left with a party of the centre where most Canadians are comfortable and there'd likely be a new party of the right and the NDP on the left. Such a realignment would deliver what Canada needs right now - a strong majority government. The social conservatives would undoubtedly form a party ostensibly on the right but as we've seen in the US when George W. Bush was President parties built around religion are really spenders not fiscal conservatives. The left would be out in the cold as well. The Jack Layton's of the world would lose what influence they now have. Eventually one of the parties from the left or right would move towards the centre and challenge the new party for dominance. As I said before other than the 30% of francophones who are committed sovereignists the rest of Quebec might find it advantageous to re-engage. It is not likely to happen but then who saw the UK outcome?

  30. Earl you're talking about 18% of the population.

    That's the highest support the PC got after the reform/alliance came into existence.

    That's probably the level of support your imaginary merged party would get.

    Most of the Liberals are both fiscally and socially liberal.

    Most of the Conservatives are both fiscally and socially conservative.

    Some of both parties are socially conservative but fiscally liberal.

    I'm not aware of any essentially libertarian gov't or party that has had huge success anywhere in the world.

    Its certainly not a large enough percentage of the population to base a gov't on.

  31. I'm incline to agree with Shadow. While a merged party gets around a lot of the problems of the FPTP system, and I'm confident that a majority could be possible a la the Cretien years, but I think you'd see deterioration almost immediately.

    A Reform wing split and defections to the NDP would quite likely see such a center right party become a very eastern based government.

    The opposition parties would have a devil of a time forming a government unless they picked up virtually of the Liberals or Conservatives remaining in such a party during an election. (Maybe not even then) So if this party does stumble, you'll see us fall right back into the current morass again.

    I am curious to see though, if Eric can predict using old polls, how something like this may look.

  32. What I'm waiting for is a Wildrose type party to emerge federally.

    I suspect that is why Harper has done a few 'hot button' social conservative items lately (gun registry, pardons, abortion). He sees the growth of Wildrose, knows what happened when the deficit was not tamed by a Conservative party, knows that he will get caught on the hidden tax increases at some point (payroll taxes going up by 1/3rd over the next few years) and wants to protect himself.

    I suspect a new right wing party will be a bit smarter about how they go about things after watching their old party do a lot of things they don't like. They'll start as just Alberta based, slowly expanding into other western provinces while leaving Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada to the current Conservatives.

    Meanwhile a massive opening is there if someone wants it. The Greens are the only ones talking of cutting payroll taxes, but the media (along with some of Ms. May's statements) has convinced most that the Green's are a far left party. The Liberals could try to gain some of those votes but no one trusts them even though they did chop government (1/3rd cut to health care, welfare, etc.) and the NDP ...hehehehehe... cutting taxes and reducing government ..hahaha... and gaining old Reform voters ... OK, I just can't continue that line of thought. Although it is funny that the NDP actually has done that before in the prairie provinces but I doubt anyone believes that Layton would do that federally.

    This might explain why we are seeing Green's polling so high (relatively speaking) in Alberta lately. As I'm sure they are sick of seeing scandals and deficits and skyrocketing spending and are searching hard for somewhere to put their vote.

  33. Peter this is once again political theatre. Ministers serve at the pleasure of the PM. That's the parliamentary system. The opposition howled for Guergis's resignation for weeks. When they got it they went on about the scandal that the Harper government was trying to cover up. Now suddenly they want to know why she was fired. Iggy's lack of experience in politics is showing again. He is especially unknowing about the parliamentary system of government. Communications between a PM and his chief of staff are private. Just as there are documents which should never see light of day. Once again we have Iggy pushing something that is more American than Canadian. Perhaps he ought to take a course in CANADIAN political science.

  34. OK, an oddity in the EKOS figures...

    I just noticed that for Alberta the Green's have 15.3% overall split 14.6% for men and 15.0% for women.

    Errr... how do the Green's get a higher percentage overall than either the male or female vote? Do Green's do an amazing job with the 'neither' gender group?

    In Saskatchewan/Manitoba the Liberals do this too, 25.3% overall split male/female 23.9%/24.9%. In Quebec the NDP does the trick.

    A fun with small sample size issue there too for the Liberals - 1.9% support in Alberta for the Liberals among the 65+ age group, tied with 'Other'. Ouch.

  35. We've seen this kind of thing before, and it's merely because the breakdowns haven't been tweaked to match the Stats Can demographics.

    So, too many young women might have answered Green, or not enough older men were surveyed, etc. etc.

    Only the regional and national numbers are the "accurate" ones, based on the demographic breakdowns in this country. When you get to age and sex and the like, it is just the results based on the amount of people they reached.

  36. Good point Eric on how numbers can appear weird but actually work out.

    I do find it funny though seeing that group of seniors preferring 'other' to Liberals in Alberta.

    Have you ever looked at doing a database with accumulated stats for the breakdowns? Might be interesting to see long term trends in support among men/women, young/old, etc.

  37. Peter this is once again political theatre. Ministers serve at the pleasure of the PM.

    Of course they do. This Liars Festival has nothing to do with that but is all about Guy Giorno writing a letter to Mary Dawson, the Ethics Commissioner, purportedly reporting on his talk with Snowdy which when shown to Snowdy, Snowdy's answer was "I NEVER said That.

    Nothing to do with the PM firing somebody but everything to do with whether Giorno lied !!


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