Thursday, May 13, 2010

New EKOS Poll: 6.5-pt Conservative Lead

EKOS has its weekly poll out, and it shows gains for all three of the main national parties.The Conservatives have gained 0.5 points since last week, now at 33.6%. The Liberals are up one point to 27.1%, and the New Democrats are up 0.9 points to 16.9%.

The Greens are down 0.9 to 10.6% and the Bloc Québécois is down 0.9 points to 9.3%. "Other" is also down to 2.5%.

Like other polls have shown, Conservative strength is based on male support. Among males they are at 37.4%, compared to 29.7% among females. The Liberals split 29.7% to 28.2% among males and females.

In Ontario, the Conservatives are steady at 36.2%, while the Liberals are up two to 35.1%. The NDP is stable at 16.3%. The Liberals lead in Toronto (41.4%) and Ottawa (37.9%), where they are up about seven points.

In Quebec, the Bloc is down two points to 37.7% but still well ahead of the Liberals, who are down one to 20.4%. The Conservatives are down two to 16% and the NDP is up four to 13.6%. In Montreal, the Bloc leads with 35.6%.

In British Columbia, the Conservatives are up four to 34.0%. The NDP is steady at 26.3%, the Liberals are down one to 23.5%, and the Greens are steady at 15.0%. In Vancouver, the Conservatives lead with 33.9%, followed by the Liberals at 26.7% (up eight) and the NDP at 22.7% (down eight).

The Conservatives lead in Atlantic Canada with 37.8% (which is actually where they were last week), Alberta with 55.4% (up five), and in the Prairies with 45.4%. The Liberals are down five points to 25.3% there.

Significantly, the Liberals do not lead in any region of the country.

The Conservatives win 66 seats in the West, 47 in Ontario, 6 in Quebec, and 12 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 131.

The Liberals win 16 seats in the West, 45 in Ontario, 15 in Quebec, and 17 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 93.

The Bloc wins 52 seats in Quebec.

The NDP wins 13 seats in the West, 14 in Ontario, 2 in Quebec, and 3 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 32.

A recent change in the poll projections is that the Liberals and NDP now no longer out-number the Conservatives. At this rate, though the Tories look to have some losses in both seats and support, they would still be safe as a minority government.

Both the Conservatives and the Liberals are starting to show some life, but they are still well below where they want to be.