Tuesday, May 18, 2010

New Harris-Decima Poll: 4-pt Conservative Lead

Harris-Decima has a new poll out, and it shows some growth for both the Liberals and the Conservatives at the expense of the New Democrats.Compared to Harris-Decima's last poll, taken between April 15 and April 25, this is a three point gain for the Conservatives, who now lead with 32%. The Liberals are up one to 28%, while the NDP is down three to 17%.

The Greens are down one to 11% and the Bloc Québécois is down one to 10%.

In Ontario, the Liberals have gained two points and lead with 38%. The Conservatives are also up, four points to 35%. The NDP is down five to 14% here.

In Quebec, the Bloc leads with 40% (down five), followed by the Liberals at 20% (down one) and the Conservatives at 14% (up four). The Greens are at 13% and the NDP is at 10%, down two.

In British Columbia, the Conservatives have re-gained the lead with a six point bump to 36%. The NDP is down one to 30% and the Liberals are down one to 20%. The Greens are down six to 12%.

Elsewhere, the Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada with 36%, the Conservatives are at 51% in Alberta (down five), and they also lead in the Prairies with 47% (down eight). The Liberals are up seven to 23% there and the NDP is down 11 to 20%.

The Conservatives win 64 seats in the West, 42 in Ontario, 5 in Quebec, and 9 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 120.

The Liberals win 15 seats in the West, 53 in Ontario, 14 in Quebec, and 19 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 101.

The Bloc wins 54 seats in Quebec, matching their record.

The NDP wins 16 seats in the West, 11 in Ontario, 2 in Quebec, and 4 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 33.

Harris-Decima's last poll resulted in seat totals of 104 Conservative, 101 Liberal, 56 Bloc, and 46 NDP. So, the Conservatives make most of their gains off of the NDP.

The poll also looked into favourable and negative opinions of the party leaders.

The most liked leader is Gilles Duceppe (at least based on his Quebec numbers). Fifty-two percent of Quebecers have a favourable opinion of him, compared to 32% negative (also a best).

For the rest, the favourable/negative splits are 46% to 36% for Jack Layton, 42% to 51% for Stephen Harper, 28% to 32% for Elizabeth May, and 26% to 52% for Michael Ignatieff.

Layton is well-liked, and Ignatieff can at least find solace in that he is disliked as much as Harper is. But he needs to do much better than 26% - that is below his party. Even Harper's rating is 131% of his party's support.


  1. I just want to be first to comment! Great blog, my favorite morning read!

  2. There's no way the Greens highest support comes from Quebec. Just saying that now. I suspect they're parked federalist voters.

    As for the rest - this looks more believable than the last poll done by HD. NDP support is high but it's not reaching out to 20%. 18-16% is that happy medium which makes sense.

    As for the leadership numbers, both Harper and Ignatieff (especially Iggy) need to be careful. Layton isn't a threat, but dissatisfaction with their leadership will hurt them in the long run. When it comes down to it, in the end it'll be about which leader can be less offensive - Harper's leading that category right now, but it can change.

    If an election is based around that, it'll be a pretty sad one.

  3. Interesting results, it's amazing how the Conservatives are the ones who gain from a lower NDP result instead of the Liberals.

    This is still a stronger showing for the Liberals then we have been seeing lately and a big gain from the 2008 election. If they were really power hungry, like people think Igantieff is for some reason, they could for a majority government with the Bloc.

  4. Yeah, Greens lead Quebec a bit over a year ago as I recall for one poll. I put it down as the infamous 1 of 20 that is wrong - check the fine print of any poll and you'll see the disclaimer '19 out of 20 times'. Statistically speaking one out of 20 times you should get a bizarre result.

  5. Volkov: There's no way the Greens highest support comes from Quebec.

    Definitely not. I tend to ignore the exact reported numbers. Instead I go to the graphs and mentally draw a best-fit line through recent polls.

    My finger in the wind says that the "real" Harris-Decima Quebec Green number is 11ish, not 13%. On the other hand, the "real" BC number is closer to 15% than the reported 12%. And the "real" Ontario number matches the reported 12% pretty well.

    I defer to anybody who does the same thing mathematically, but the additional precision may not exceed the accuracy. Feel free to differ on my hairy eyeball estimates in any case. They are neither provable nor falsifiable since they're relative to Harris-Decima numbers, not actual election results.

  6. Well those numbers certainly seem to indicate that a Lib-NDP coalition could govern.

    It also looks, though it could be in the MOE, that Con support is slowly slipping.

  7. Having been watching the current US situation I'm going to throw out an idea for discussion.

    Some version of the primary system?

    We all know that in all parties there are sitting MP's who are way less than spectacular as a riding person. So why not a "primary" where these less than ideal MP's can be turfed as the candidate in the next election.

    I know the "Riding Association" thing but many of these are essentially owned by the sitting candidate. So why not break that control and get riding accountability in place ?

  8. I think the "real" Quebec Green number is the 3% that the respected Quebec pollsters CROP and Leger consistently give them when they do major surveys with sample sizes of 1,000. Let's face it, if there is one place where the Green party has ZERO visibility - its Quebec and the fact that Elizabeth May speaks French like my ass chews gum doesn't help either.

  9. Peter,

    I agree that the riding associations should be more accountable and not in the hands of the incumbents or candidates, but the primary system of the US isn't any better. All it ends up being is a candidate selection meeting with a fancier name.

  10. Volkov:
    All it ends up being is a candidate selection meeting

    But thus meeting is open to the public. That's the big difference. Even if it is only open to party members it is still way better than the current closed system

  11. Peter,

    I don't remember any CSM's I've been to being closed to the public. In fact, for the Liberals in Burlington, we had quite a few non-members show up. They obviously couldn't vote, but they wouldn't in a primary either. I don't get the problem here.

  12. That was done for the federalist equivalent of the Manning Centre.

  13. I don't get the problem here.

    It's called transparency or accountability.

    The people need to see !

  14. Jeffery Simpson as regards Iggy and the LPOC:


  15. Meanwhile back in happy Tory land, some interesting developments.

    Senator Lowell Murray, is now saying the senate should stringently review bill C-9. that is the omnibus budget bill, as the god senator apparently has some problems with it.

    Some Conservative senators are also breaking ranks to support bill C-232. That would be the NDP, sponsored private members bill requiring all future supreme court justices be fluently bilingual.

    Stephen Harper, has also not been successful in his attempts to stop Rod Bruinooge in bringing forward his private members bill, to reopen the debate on abortion. The Conservatives are all running for the hills on this one.

    Apparently all is not well in happy Tory land.

    Cracks are starting to appear from the moderate Conservatives, who are now finding their backbone and are now standing up to Harper.

    Amazing what a Harper slide in the polls will do.

  16. Abortion from one of Canada'a foremost political writers:


  17. HST revolt gathers steam in BC:



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