Thursday, May 27, 2010

New EKOS Poll: 8.2-pt Conservative Lead

EKOS's weekly poll shows the Conservatives down and the Liberals and New Democrats up. But, overall, there has been little change.

Compared to last week's poll, 33.9% represents a drop of 0.5 points for the Conservatives. The Liberals are up 0.6 to 25.7% while the NDP is up 1.1 points to 16.4%.

The Greens are down 0.1 to 11.9% and the Bloc Québécois is down 1.2 points to 9.4%.

In Ontario, there is no change at all. The Conservatives still lead with 38.9%, the Liberals are still far behind at 31.1%. The NDP is at 16.1%. The Liberals lead in Toronto with 39.4% while the Conservatives lead in Ottawa with 39.8% (down 10).

In Quebec, the Bloc drops five to 37.4% while the Liberals, Conservatives, and NDP each gain one point and are at 20.5%, 16.3%, and 12.7%, respectively. In Montreal, the Bloc is down 10 points to 38.2%. This is likely the reason for the party's drop in the province, as their 48% mark in Montreal last week was a little unrealistic.

In British Columbia, the Conservatives are down seven to 31%. That's a big drop. The NDP is steady at 24.2% and the Liberals are up three to 23.0%. The Greens are up three to 17.3%. The Tories lead in Vancouver with 36.6%.

In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals have re-gained a lead with an eight-point bump to 38.7%. The Conservatives lead in Alberta with 57.1% and the Prairies with 42.7%. The NDP is up eight points in that region to 25.2%.

The Conservatives win 66 seats in the West, 56 in Ontario, 6 in Quebec, and 9 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 137.

The Liberals win 15 seats in the West and North, 36 in Ontario, 15 in Quebec, and 21 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 87.

The Bloc wins 52 seats in Quebec.

The NDP wins 14 seats in the West and North, 14 in Ontario, 2 in Quebec, and 2 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 32.

Last week's poll resulted in seats of 140 CPC, 85 LPC, 55 BQ, and 29 NDP so this poll shows small gains for the Liberals and NDP and small losses for the Conservatives and Bloc.

The polls remain to be unhelpful for anyone. The low Liberal result and the big gap would seem to be good news for the Conservatives, but at less than 34% a majority is out of their reach and would be a moral loss. The Liberals look unable to go anywhere, while the NDP seems to have topped out in 2008 and appears to be set to lose some seats. The only party who might gain is the Bloc, who should be able to take advantage of low Liberal and Conservatives results in their province.