Friday, May 21, 2010

Projection: 129 CPC, 96 LPC, 51 BQ, 32 NDP

After three weeks of polls, I have updated the projection. This update means good news for the Conservatives, decent news for the Bloc Québécois and New Democrats, and bad news for the Liberals.Nationally, the Conservatives are up 0.2 points to 33.2%, and have also re-captured three seats bringing their total back up to 129. The Liberals are down 0.5 points to 28.4%, and they have also lost three seats, bringing their total to 96.

The NDP is up 0.1 points to 16.6%, the Bloc is up 0.1 points to 9.5%, and the Greens are down 0.1 points to 10.3%. All of these parties show no overall change in seats.

The Conservatives had a generally good three-weeks, making their seats gains in Atlantic Canada, Ontario, and British Columbia. Their biggest popular vote gain comes in Atlantic Canada, where they are up 0.7 points to 32.1%. They also gained 0.6 points in BC (35.8%), 0.3 points in Ontario (35.5%), and 0.1 points in the North (30.0%). They were stable in the Prairies and Quebec but lost 0.2 points in Alberta, where they lead with 58.5%.

Aside from a gain of 0.5 points in the Prairies, the Liberals had a bad few weeks. Their seat losses come in British Columbia, Atlantic Canada, and the North. They dropped 0.6 points in Quebec to 23.4%, 0.5 points in British Columbia to 23.9%, and 0.3 points in Alberta (16.7%) and Ontario (36.0%). They were also down 0.2 points in the North to 33.1% and 0.1 points in Atlantic Canada to 36.7%. Their gain in the Prairies brings them up to 22.3%, within striking distance of the NDP.

Speaking of which, they performed pretty well over the last three weeks. They did drop a seat in Ontario, but gained one in the North. Their biggest gain came in Quebec, where they are up 0.4 points to 12.1%. They also gained 0.1 points in British Columbia (26.3%) and Ontario (16.6%). They were stable in Alberta and the North, but lost 0.2 points in Atlantic Canada (23.2%) and 0.3 points in the Prairies (22.7%). So not all roses.

The Bloc is on an up-tick of late, gaining another 0.2 points. They currently lead with 38.4% in Quebec. With the Liberal loss, the gap has now opened up to 15 points.

The Greens did not have a lot of luck, losing 0.4 points in Atlantic Canada, 0.3 in Quebec and British Columbia (especially troublesome), and 0.1 points in the Prairies. They were stable in the North, gained 0.1 in Ontario, and 0.2 in Alberta. They are currently polling highest in BC with 11.8%.

Everyone had mixed results this month. The Tories made important gains in British Columbia, Atlantic Canada, and Ontario, but look stagnant in Quebec and are not doing well (for them) in Alberta and the Prairies.

The Liberals had big drops in British Columbia and Quebec, and also lost ground in every other part of the country except the Prairies. That gain was good for them, but overall they are on the downswing.

The NDP had modest gains and modest losses, but can be pleased that their gains came in Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia.

The Bloc is doing well in Quebec while their main opponents appear to be unable to do anything about it.

With 129 seats, the Conservatives outnumber the Liberals and NDP, who can only muster 128. And with 129 seats, the Conservatives can get legislation passed with the help of any one of the three parties. So, they are being upgraded to a stable minority.