Monday, May 10, 2010

New Léger Poll: 11-pt Bloc Lead

Léger Marketing has released a new poll of the federal and provincial voting intentions of Quebecers. Today, let's look at the federal results.Compared to Léger's last large provincial poll, the Bloc Québécois has dropped three points to 35%. The Liberals are up three to 24% while the Conservatives are steady at 17%.

The New Democrats have picked up one point, standing at third place with 18%.

The Greens are at 4%, down two, and "Other" is at 1%.

The Bloc's losses seem to have come throughout the province, as they are down two points to 43% among francophones, down four points to 4% among non-francophones, down one point to 33% in the Québec City region, and down five points to 39% in rural Quebec. The party is steady around Montréal with 32%. These aren't completely worrisome figures, as the party is still well ahead and these losses should all be within the MOE.

In contrast, the Liberals seem to have made uniform gains. They are up two points among francophones to 18% (which is still too low), five points among non-francophones to 48%, two points around Montréal with 31%, and four points in rural Quebec to 18%. They've dropped one point in Québec City to 16%, however. They aren't in any of the races there, but look to be able to be very competitive in Montréal.

The NDP made good gains among non-francophones (three points), in Québec City (three points) and rural Quebec (two points).

The Conservatives were pretty steady, but dropped one point to 26% in the Québec City region. As that is their bread and butter, that is not good news for them.

The Bloc would win 50 seats with this poll, taking advantage of weaker Conservative numbers than in 2008.

The Liberals win 16 seats, while the Conservatives win 7 and the NDP wins 2.

The Conservatives continue to have trouble getting back to their 20+ levels of 2006 and 2008, while the Liberals look stagnant. In fact, all of the major parties appear to be stagnant, which is not exactly bad news for the Bloc. They have a lock on a majority of the seats as long as the Liberals and Conservatives can't make any moves. Their only worry would be the NDP, but the party's support is much more widespread than regional, so they aren't in a position to win anything but a couple seats in Montreal and the Outaouais if everything goes right for them.

20 comments:

  1. I don't see Conservative numbers improving in Quebec anytime soon.

    There's no money left to buy off voters, in fact cuts are on their way.

    The best strategy would probably be to just wait until Ignatieff falls nationally. If he's not seen as as a viable option for PM then support should migrate away from his party.

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  2. Interesting results.

    Eric, would you know if the "Montreal" results are in fact limited to Montreal-Laval, or does it extend to Longueuil, Terrebonne and etc.?

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  3. It is Montreal and its environs as defined by Statistics Canada. So, Montreal, Laval, Longueuil, Terrebonne, Mirabel, etc.

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  4. Those Quebec Region (Capitale National, I assume) aren't as bad for the Liberals as they seem.

    16% was the result they got in 2008, where they were still competitive in at least one riding - Louis-Herbert. If these numbers hold, that puts us within striking range of that riding at the very least. That's cause for hope.

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  5. Eric,

    There is a new leadership poll out by Nanos.

    Will you be covering it?

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  6. Eric did you catch the environics poll out for Alberta provincial politics ?

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  7. I'm surprised that the CPC is in 4th place in terms of voting intentions among Francophones.

    I was always under the impression that CPC strength in Quebec was among the old soft nationalist Union Nationale and Creditiste types situate in the Quebec City/Beauce regions, which are heavily Francophone.

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  8. The chart here say "rural Quebec" but it should really say "rest of Quebec" since it would include lots of non-rural places like Gatineay, Saguenay, Trois-Rivieres etc...

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  9. Volkov,

    Louis-Hébert is my riding. The Bloc holds it right now. If we come up with a star candidate, we have a realistic shot at winning it. Otherwise forget it.

    It will stay Bloc. As for the Conservatives, their candidate is a decent chap but he won't have enough steam to win back the riding.

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  10. Éric,

    Just a little housekeeping. Our provincial MNA is Quebec cabinet minister Sam Hamad.

    Have always worked for him in elections (even when I was a Conservative) and will continue to do so -- even if Charest has all the appeal these days of stale bread.

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  11. Anyone catch the Geurgis thing on the CBC tonight ?

    Apparently the entire PEI aiport incident was grossly exagerated.

    The worst part about all this is that the media, Easter, and Pat Martin were leading the charge against Geurgis.

    And then when she got kicked out of cabinet they did a complete 180 degree turn, expressed sympathy for her, and lamented the fact that Harper was mean to the woman they just spent all these months trying to destroy.


    BTW - If Geurgis is 100% cleared and Harper appoints her to the senate anyone wanna guess whether her new found friends will do another 180 and start attacking her again ?

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  12. I don't think Harper will be appointing her to the Senate.

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  13. Anyone catch the Geurgis thing on the CBC tonight ?

    What came out of that for me was a couple of impressions.

    a) She really is stupid

    b) She was setup by experts in the Tory party

    Mansbridge did a decent job given the material he had. She's finished politically, let's move on.

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  14. Peter what amazes me is that nobody has apologized to her for getting the airport thing so wrong.

    Every media outlet, the opposition, and many in her own party described her as throwing a tantrum, hurling shoes around, and trying to barge through a security door.

    Some people on here even suggested she committed criminal actions.

    Peter Mansbridge saw none of that.


    I've been saying from the start that there was something fishy about the whole thing. Why didn't the employee file an official complaint ? Why did she instead write a letter to Liberal MP Wayne Easter ?

    I think Helena should be considering her legal options and run as an independent in her riding if she's denied the nomination.

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  15. The thing I took away from the Guergis interview was the lack of information that she received. That's absolutely atrocious. It goes against a fundamental Western legal principle of knowing the crimes you're accused of before any punishment.

    The PMO and Harper specifically should have been forthcoming with her. With the public? Okay, if its an internal matter I can see it sliding by. But to not even tell the person you're accusing these things of..

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  16. I'd like to see Guergis come out clean in all of this and sue the PMO.

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  17. Volkov this isn't a court of law so you're being a little melodramatic talking about fundamental principles.

    Anyways some of what she said was fact checked already:

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/tories-slap-down-helena-guergis/article1564804/

    1) This idea that she wasn't told about the allegations is new and contradicts her original statements.

    2) There is proof that Jaffer used her office for meetings.

    3) There is proof that Jaffer used her e-mail for private matters.

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