Saturday, August 28, 2010

Day Three: Assigned Readings

David Alward promises to cancel the tax cuts aimed at businesses and high income earners, reports the CBC. To my ears, that isn't a very conservative idea. The plan hopes to reduce New Brunswick's deficit, which is about $750 million. Whereas the Liberals plan to cut the corporate tax rate to 8% from 11%, which would make it the lowest in Canada, Alward wants to cap it at 10%. Both the Liberals and Progressive Conservatives are making vague promises on cutting government spending, with one of the more tangible promises being Alward's pledge to have a 15-member cabinet rather than Graham's 20-member cabinet.

Dr. Dennis Furlong, former PC health minister, says that New Brunswick doesn't need to spend more money on the health care system but instead spend it better.

A little piece on a few young candidates running for election under the Liberal and PC banners.

The Times & Transcript warns us that it is too early to make any predictions. To that I say poppycock! Yes, I went there.

32 comments:

  1. OT:

    The Harper Experiment -

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/waiting-out-the-harper-experiment/article1687507/

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  2. Very interesting. Graham is following an economic platform similiar to PM Martin. Even a leftist (on other issues) like Dion continued this policy.

    Ignatieff did too until he abandoned it at the thinkers conference and took the federal Liberals sharply to the left, right into NDP fiscal policy territory.


    David Alward has been outmaneuvered here.

    However, in his defence Jim Flaherty is calling on the provinces to adopt a uniform 10% corporate tax rate as he continues to lower the federal rate.

    In fact at 10% NB will still be the lowest because it'll likely be the first province to make the target.

    There is an arguement to be made that Canada should compete against other countries for jobs but individual provinces should not compete with each other or else we'll face a race to the bottom with loss of nessecary revenue.

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  3. Alward hasn't been out-manoeuvred so much as he just has poor policies.

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  4. "Alward hasn't been out-manoeuvred so much as he just has poor policies."

    Alward's policies are fine and only superficially different than Graham's.

    No matter who is elected there's going to be modest tax relief offset by deep spending cuts to achieve nessecary fiscal consolidation.


    I'm talking about the politics of this.

    Alward's using clunky arguements about dropping to 10% then putting a cap on the rate and going no further because of the deficit.

    If he wants power he should either have advocated:

    *No reductions

    *Greater reductions than Graham promised

    As for the income tax cuts he has an opening here to go populist.

    Argue that Graham is handing out gifts to his rich buddies while hiking the hydro rates of the working stiff.

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  5. "The Harper Experiment"

    National job approval average (pollster.com) for Obama:

    44.7% approve, 51.1% disapprove


    Direction of government, Ekos for the Harper tories:

    44.0 right direction, 44.2 wrong.


    Compare and contrast for me Earl,... The chosen one sent to us to deliver us from the evil republicans.... With the dastardly evil government of Stephen Harper's extreme right knuckledraging tories who will be the end of all that is Canada.

    Given that the states is a 2 party system and Canada is 3 (or 4)... which set of those numbers strikes you as a leader in a better position to continue in the position? Which one seems to you to be more or less liked by the electorate? how about by the "journalists"?

    An impressive read of an article by a disenchanted employee... I just don't think that their thesis holds much water.... The liberals have been waiting for Harper to finish himself off for almost 5 years... Every "scandal" is supposed to do that, most of it ends in the press quietly dropping the issue after spending weeks attacking the tories to very little effect.

    But the polls,..aside from some short elevations and dips for each party basically haven't changed much from 4 years ago. At this rate,... there will be alot of waiting if you are just hoping for him to fail. Because the numbers just don't fit Sandy's theroy.

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  6. Eric, do you have any idea as to the amount of polling that will go on in this New Brunswick election?

    I don't expect 3 firms doing dailies like in the federal....

    I do know the amount of polls has been increasing in every election basically everywhere, but in the last NB election there was only about 5-6 polls.... 1/2 of which popped up with about a week to go... with not much before, and nothing withing 5 days of the voting date.

    So, yeah, my question. Do you think there will be much more polling in this particular election to analyze?

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  7. No, but we can hope. I sent out a few emails to some pollsters but the only responses I've gotten were negative.

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  8. Barcs that article was incredibly arrogant.

    What "Harper Experiment" ?

    It makes it sound like a bunch of elites, the backroom power players, gave their permission to a lowly old reform guy to lead the party for awhile and they'd see how it worked.

    Actually Harper won the leadership fair and square by getting the most support from CPC voters.


    And you can take it to the bank that his likely replacement won't be some wishy washy moderate PC type.

    My guess is that by the time Harper is up for replacement it'll be someone from NEITHER party.

    It'll be someone who got involved in politics as a member of the CPC.

    Shelly Glover, for example, would be an excellent PM.

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  9. Come on Shadow. Get real!

    Glover practically screams "Law and Order" persona. I've got a better chance to win the CPC leadership as a Liberal than she does...

    Cops do not make good political leaders. Something to do with their natural autocratic tendencies. Most of them make this Prime Minister look like a leftist pussycat.

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  10. Shelly Glover, for example, would be an excellent PM.

    Aagghh!!

    Barf !!

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  11. Eric

    Interesting piece from Dr. Furlong in view of the Graham pledge to drastically increase Health Care ??

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  12. Atlantic Canada Politics is very simple.

    If the population of NB is pissed off at Graham because of the Liberal government then Aylward will win. NB Power is the election issue, and everyone knows that selling it to HydroQuebec was not the way to go, but at the same time everyone knows that it has internal issues it must resolve.

    So the Liberals will lose many of their seats to the PCer's. The NDP may win one seat, if none at all.

    Because of the dislike for Graham, the best way forward for Alyward to do campaign very simple. By saying that he'll govern better, and give little specifics to argue.

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  13. Ron:
    Come on Shadow. Get real!

    Now Ron we all know that Shadow has major "Hots" for Shelley !! It's just been to obvious.

    Why he would think a Parking Control Officer would make a good PM really eludes us, eh?

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  14. http://www.foxnews.com/weather/2010/08/29/earl-strengthens-category-storm-atlantic-ocean/

    .... maybe I shouldn't be arguing with a man they seem to have named a hurricane after...

    :)

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  15. Ron:

    Glover stated in an interview with Evan Soloman on CBC's Power and Politics on August 23 2010 that she has been dealing with the issue of the Long Gun Registry for the entire length of her 19 years as an officer previous to being elected. The Registry only obtained royal assent in 1995.

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  16. Peter,

    I don't know about that but I do recognize "Step One" when I see it! Glover will get to experience a dry-run as Parliamentary Secretary, Indian Affairs.

    If all goes well, (and I don't see why not), Step Two will quite naturally follow in short order.

    This Prime Minister may be a lot of things but stupid is definitely not one of them.

    All the more reason to blow his government right out of the water on the next confidence vote this fall. I have no higher political priority. I hope Michael agrees.

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  17. Peter its incredibly insulting to Metis women everywhere (for which Glover is a role model) to call her a "a Parking Control Officer".

    Going undercover to help sex crimes victims is hardly the same thing as being a meter maid.

    The École Polytechnique Massacre happened in 1989. It sparked the gun control debate.

    It makes perfect sense that Glover has been dealing with the issue of a registry since she became an officer since 1989 was when the issue began being debated.


    Make no mistake. Its about time Canada elected its first female Prime Minister (Kim Campbell doesn't count since she never won an election).

    Only a law and order type would be seen as "tough enough" to handle the job.

    Ronald O'Dowd says she makes Harper look like a a leftist pussycat.

    GOOD.

    Women in politics generally need a pair and a half of cajones if they want to overcome the bias towards them that people like you obviously feel Peter.

    Parking control officer ?

    Just plain disrespectful...

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  18. Ron
    "All the more reason to blow his government right out of the water on the next confidence vote this fall. I have no higher political priority. I hope Michael agrees.
    "

    Yeah I fervently agree

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  19. Parking control officer ?

    Just plain disrespectful...


    No just bloody accurate. She's got five kids !! How much time do you think that left her for police work.

    Further your nonsense about the Montreal massacre is just that. The Registry was NOT law until 95. She's elected in what? 05. So at most she's got 1--11 years with the registry as an police officer. Get your facts straight !!

    I looked her up. She didn't do all that much as a cop. Look her up on Wiki and get the bio straight and stop listening to Dimitri.

    Further your attempt to bring racism into the picture only indicates how low you will stoop.

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  20. Shadow,

    I would disagree with your assessment concerning female cajones! I mean no disrespect to Ms. Glover but to win a party leadership, a woman has to be seen as being able to circumvent the built in biases of some, if not many, men...

    Agreed that women have to be more successful than men to reach the same political pinnacle. Women, rightly or wrongly (and I would argue wrongly) have to be seen as exceptional leaders in their field. It's the old double standard which thrives to protect male interests...few women thus far have managed to overcome that sterotype.

    I'm not saying it's impossible. I'm just saying that it's rather unlikely that she can crash through that particular glass ceiling.

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  21. And leaving aside gender, I don't think she is an ideal candidate for leadership of a federal party. She's been abrasive and a little uninformed in every interview I've seen her, and people want to vote for someone they can personally like and won't be so easily caught in a half-truth or distortion.

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  22. "She's been abrasive and a little uninformed in every interview I've seen her"

    Not to mention the obvious body language and facial characteristics when she is lying !!

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  23. "The Registry was NOT law until 95. She's elected in what? 05. So at most she's got 1--11 years with the registry as an police officer. Get your facts straight !!"

    Peter she was elected in 2008. Kind of ironic telling somebody to get their facts straight right after making an error yourself.

    And again, why are you counting 1995 as the start date ?

    "dealing with the issue" seems to be pretty clear.

    Dealing with an issue means to be involved in its debate. The debate started in 1989. She became a cop in 1989.

    Gun control has been a huge debate the whole time she's been an officer.

    PS - She was UNDERCOVER, by definition that does NOT show up on wikipedia !

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  24. This business of female PM's is quite interesting actually.

    There have been, to my knowledge three outstanding ones.

    Margaret Thatcher of course

    Gro Harlem Bruntland of Norway

    And the longest serving one Indira Gandhi

    Thatcher was a real disaster and it took the UK a long time to recover from her activities

    Bruntland by all accounts was excellent and Norway was better at the end of her term than at the beginning.

    Gandhi ?? Not really sure but she does have the distinction of being the only female PM to be assassinated !!

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  25. "PS - She was UNDERCOVER, by definition that does NOT show up on wikipedia !
    "

    Again your ignorance shows. Where do you think I learned she was undercover?? Twit !

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  26. And there is this. Some of the comments are quite interesting

    http://www.cbc.ca/politics/story/2010/08/29/man-glover-shuffle-harper.html

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  27. Peter the "comments" on any CBC internet article are almost always left wing in opinion and poisonous in tone.

    But that's good.

    Any potential party leader in a hyper-polarized, low turnout environment like ours NEEDS to create burning hatred from opposition supporters.

    It reflects back in the form of ardent support from CPC donors and volunteers.


    Ronald O'Dowd is right. Shelly Glover is going places.

    *She's been at almost every law and order announcement.

    *She's been media spokesperson for various public safety issues including the long gun debate while Candice Hoepner was in Taiwan on parliementary business.

    *She's now been moved to a more high profile parliamentary secretary.

    Clearly she is in line for a cabinet slot after the next election.

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  28. "Clearly she is in line for a cabinet slot after the next election."

    If, and only if, the registry bill passes !!

    Which is looking a lot less likely than a month ago.

    Why she is point man on this instead of Hoeppner makes me wonder if she is being set up for the crunch ?

    Heck she could even lose her seat. Tough to be in Cabinet then.

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  29. Peter the registry is Hoeppner's baby, win or lose. And as it stands the pro-gun registry people are 3 votes short.

    Glover was only point man for a week while Candice was in Taiwan.

    I point it out because it means:

    A) She's trusted

    B) Her experience as a policewoman helps her deflect pro-gun registry talk from the chiefs.

    As for her losing her seat that's just plain ridiculous.

    Ignatieff spent a grand total of FOUR days in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba COMBINED.

    The Liberals are going nowhere fast in those provinces. And Shelly is up against yesterday's man, a long time MP she beat by 11%.


    Shelly Glover is going places. It'll be loads of fun watching her drive Liberals up the wall in the coming years !

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  30. Peter,

    Didn't you know? The Taiwanese junkets, ah, ah, I mean IMPORTANT parliamentary meetings inevitably lead to earth shattering events aimed at maintaining detente between the mainland and the renegade province.

    I'm sure the Canadian delegation is about to get a Nobel for sewing this one up just nicely...

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  31. Ron are you suggesting visiting one of the largest economies in Asia is a waste of time ??

    Weird.

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  32. Shadow,

    You put on the table -- anything of substance that comes out of these junkets and I'll retract. Otherwise, forget it.

    I'm waiting to see what you come up with. These are feel good sessions designed to advance the issues of the so-called ROC, nothing more. How about admitting that.

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