My last projection update was exactly a month ago, so it seems an opportune time to update the projection again. Particularly since starting Monday I plan to start focusing a bit more on the New Brunswick provincial election. It'll be the first real test of the basic workings of my projection model, and it will also give me the opportunity to test-drive a few ideas concerning how best to cover an on-going election. It helps that the New Brunswick election looks like it will be a close one. Either Shawn Graham or David Alward could end up as Premier at the end of September.
Anyway, to the projection.The Conservatives have dropped three seats in the projection and now stand at 129. That is still enough to outnumber the combined total of the Liberals (94, up two) and the New Democrats (33, up one). But just barely.
The Bloc Québécois is stable at 52 seats.
Nationally, the Conservatives have dropped 0.3 points and are now at 33.8%. The Liberals have dropped 0.1 points and are now at 28.3%. The NDP is also down 0.l1 and stands at 16.3%.
Those on the rise are the Bloc Québécois (up 0.1 to 9.7%) and the Greens (up 0.3 to 9.2%).
There have been no seat changes in Ontario but the popular vote has shifted downwards for the two major parties. The Conservatives still lead with 35.2% (down 0.4) but the Liberals are not far behind at 34.5% (down 0.6). The NDP is stable at 17.4% and the Greens are up 0.6 to 10.8%.
The Bloc has not moved from 39.3%, and still holds 52 seats. The Liberals are unchanged at 23.1% while the Conservatives are down 0.3 points to 16.6%. They are also down one seat and now stand to win six in the province. The NDP is down 0.3 points to 11.9% but has gained a seat and is now at two. The Greens have gained 0.4 points to reach 7.2%.
The Conservatives are up 0.2 points in British Columbia to 36.9% but are down one seat to 19. The NDP is down 0.4 points to 26.5% but the Liberals are up 0.5 to 22.6%. They have gained a seat and now stand at eight. The Greens are down 0.1 to 11.9%.
The Liberals have gained 0.6 points and one seat in Atlantic Canada. They are now at 38.3% and 20 seats. The Conservatives are down 0.5 points to 31.9% while the NDP is down 0.4 points to 22.0%. They have also dropped one seat and now have three. The Greens are up 0.4 to 6.2%.
The Conservatives are down 0.2 points in Alberta, where they lead with 59.8%. The Liberals are up 0.2 to 16.5% and the NDP is down 0.5 to 11.1%. The Greens have gained 0.6 points and now stand at 9.8%.
The Conservatives have lost a seat in the Prairies, as well as 0.2 points. They now stand to win 46.4% of the vote and 20 seats. The NDP makes the seat gain and now stands at four. They are also up 0.6 points to 23.3%. The Liberals are down 0.2 to 21.8% and the Greens are down 0.5 to 6.7%.
Finally, the Liberals lead in the North with 33.1%, unchanged. The Conservatives have dropped 0.1 points and now trail with 30.2%. The NDP is unchanged at 27.1% while the Greens are up 0.2 to 8.1%.
In terms of net gains/losses (i.e. the net change in the seven regions combined), the Greens come out on top with a net gain of 1.6 points. The highlight for them is the gain of 0.6 points in Ontario, where Guelph has the potential to go Green. However, their loss in British Columbia, even though it is only of 0.1 points, is not positive.
Next is the Liberals who have had a net gain of 0.5 points. Their biggest bump came in Atlantic Canada (0.6 and one seat) but they also gained 0.5 points and a seat in British Columbia. Their drop in Ontario is dangerous, however.
The Bloc was stable, so they stand at third in this projection update.
Then it is the NDP, who had a net loss of one point. While a gain of 0.6 in the Prairies and stability in Ontario are good things, their drop in British Columbia and Atlantic Canada do not bode well for the future.
And finally we have the Conservatives, who had a net loss of 1.5 points. Their only gain came in British Columbia, where they nevertheless lost a seat. They had big drops in Atlantic Canada and Ontario, both important regions for them, and are also down in Quebec.
I expect this trend to continue for a little while. The next projection update will, unless things change, likely have a greater Liberal and NDP seat total than the Conservatives.