Monday, August 30, 2010

Ontario Liberals and PCs neck-and-neck

Last week, Ipsos-Reid released a new Ontario provincial poll. It showed a race that is as close as it can be, with the Progressive Conservatives leading the Liberals 36% to 35%. With my new Ontario projection model, that equates to a PC minority.Compared to Ipsos-Reid's last Ontario poll taken in May and June, the PCs are up four points. The Liberals are down two.

The New Democrats are down two to 18% while the Greens are unchanged at 11%.

The Progressive Conservatives lead in central Ontario (46%, up four), eastern Ontario (47%, up 14), and southwest Ontario (46%, up three). They stand at 29% in the Greater Toronto Area (up three) and are in third in northern Ontario with 24% (down one).

The Liberals lead in the GTA (42%, down one) and northern Ontario (34%, unchanged). They are down two in central Ontario (27%), ten in eastern Ontario (32%), and six in southwestern Ontario (20%).

The NDP's best region is northern Ontario, where they are second at 28% (up one). They are at 18% in the GTA, central, and southwestern Ontario, losing four in that latter part of the province.

The Greens are doing best in southwestern Ontario with 14%.

Interestingly, while the Liberals lead in the GTA 42% to 29%, outside of Toronto the PCs lead with 43% to 28%. It really is a Toronto/rest of Ontario divide. It's not even urban/rural, really, when you see that the parties are almost tied in urban areas (36% for the Liberals to 35% for the PCs). The Progressive Conservatives have a massive lead in rural Ontario, however, 47% to 25%. The NDP does better in urban ridings, with 19% to 11% in rural ones.

The Progressive Conservatives would win 51 seats with this poll, compared to 41 for the Liberals and 15 for the NDP. A minority government, or would Dalton McGuinty and Andrea Horwath work together?

Speaking of the leaders, Tim Hudak is the favourite for Premier, at 37%. McGuinty is next with 29% and Horwath is at 21%. Green leader Mike Schreiner is at 13%.

Hudak's best region was in central Ontario, where he got the nod of 42% of Ontarians. His worst was in southwestern Ontario: 31%. That is a little strange, as southwestern Ontario was one of the better regions for the party as a whole.

McGuinty's best is in the GTA, with 35%. His worst is in the north, with 10%. Again, also strange, as northern Ontario was the party's second best region.

For Horwath, the best is in northern Ontario with 45% (no surprise) and is worst in eastern Ontario with 10% (also no surprise).

So, a close race in Canada's biggest province. But McGuinty is a cat with nine lives, and Hudak still has a lot of unknowns. There's still another year before the next election, so anything can happen.

16 comments:

  1. Needless to say, I'm highly sceptical of the Green party getting 13% of the vote in northern Ontario - where in the last election they averaged about 2% in each riding - but this is what happens when you start prompting the names of fringe parties.

    Will you be doing an analysis of the Harris-Decima national poll that came out at the end of last week?

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  2. Yes, I'm just waiting for them to update their site.

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  3. I think it's fair to say that the Ontario NDP would want a shot at governing, and that McGuinty likes being in power enough that this result would encourage him to form a coalition, perhaps in the fashion of the 80s coalition.

    But the projection also shows that a minor lead (Like 4-5%)would be enough for the Tories to get a majority.

    McGuinty does actually appear to be in relatively good shape though. He's no Charest or Campbell in polling; more like Graham.

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  4. Charest and Campbell are their own category. It's hard to poll well when a large portion of your electorate thinks you belong in jail (I'm not saying either does, but it's not an uncommon opinion).

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  5. Great news!

    We can get rid the long-form, AND have a more invasive government at the same time.

    You're welcome, libertarians. Harper likes you. Really.

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  6. Globe editorial outlining a sensible tack to take in the "War on Drugs".

    So sensible in fact, that it will not be considered by either major Party.

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  7. IMO, the next Ontario election will be determined by the size of the defict, and how well the Libs deal with the public sector unions.

    So far it is not looking too promising for Dalton.


    If Hudak can keep his feet out of his mouth (unlikely), he may well have a cake walk.

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  8. Excellent Selley article on the gun registry, from last friday.

    Shouldn't be missed by those who care about the issue, and the integrity of our RCMP.

    Here's the Geddes article he references about Insite.

    A perfect example of why police should always be trusted, to have the publics best interest at heart.

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  9. AJR - I don't see any evidence of invasiveness in that article.

    And Selley implicitly relies on the precautionary principle in support of the gun registry.

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  10. Sorry Ira,

    I guess I should be more clear in my posting.

    From the article:

    " The government has said that in addition to the new voluntary National Household Survey, it will rely on existing databases to paint a picture of the Canadian population, but Vonn said that approach is far more worrying than the long-form census.

    Citizens' privacy relies on data in government and private databases existing in silos, she said, but linking them will "create de-facto citizen dossiers that are a privacy Chornobyl waiting to happen." "

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  11. AJR79 you do realize that what the guy is saying would bolster the case of scrapping the long form right ??

    Its a document containing linked information that could be subject to a large scale profiling operation looking for surveillance targets by CSIS.

    Or that could be leaked by a rogue census taker.

    You do also realize that the guy has ZERO evidence that the government is planning to introduce legislation to give them the authority to start linking seperate pieces of information into a central database ??


    So let me boil down the article which prompted you to make your snide assertions about Libertarians not being liked by the government:

    Hi i'm from the BC Civil Liberties association where we constantly WORRY about things that might happen.

    I have no evidence for any of this but i'm WORRIED this could happen!!

    Yeah a guy who's job it is to be worried is worried about something!

    Alert the presses!

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  12. That globe article doesn't outline a sensible tack to take on anything.

    It lays out two false alternatives.

    A US style war on drugs and the Vienna Declaration.

    Unfortunately, that is what this kind of arguement usually devolves into.


    People of supposedly good faith who attack anyone who isn't for outright legalization as being US war on drug puppets.

    Their favourite chant:

    The war on drugs has failed!!


    Its a nice strawman. Its also intellectually dishonest.

    It is possible to have a position somewhere between the Vienna Declaration and the US War on Drugs.

    In fact I would say such a position is far more "sensible" than either.

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  13. Interesting that the provincial poll almost exactly mirrors the federal parties in Ontario. I would love to see your analysis of the Harris Decima also-I predict a similar result to the last EKOS poll. Thanks for your fantastic work on the provincials

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  14. AJR79 might want to think twice before using PostMedia links to reflect what Libertarians are supposedly thinking.

    Turns out ACTUAL Libertarians have noticed an editorial shift at The Post ever since their new owners (a Liberal led consortium) took over:

    http://unambig.com/rewriting-news-to-protect-mickey-i/


    Have to say I can't stand a lot of what they put out these days.

    Its all "concern troll" Andrew Coyne type stuff.

    Every article is about how Harper is not a real conservative.

    The hope is that CPC voters will either stay home or vote Liberal.

    Of course its completely illogical!

    But the simple wisdom of not letting the perfect be the enemy of the good seems to escape an awful lot of people these days.

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  15. Well, as I called it ages ago, the government is starting to look at merging databases. It is inevitable as it is a quiet method of gathering data without people knowing it is going on. More a trick I'd have expected from the Liberals to be honest, but Harper has shown he has no problem taking the worst elements of the Liberals to heart (record debt, skyrocketing spending pre-recession, putting all control into the PMO rather than the elected MP's, etc.)

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  16. According to Harris-Decima:

    "Nationally, over the last two weeks, the Conservatives lead by three points. The Conservatives are at 33%, the Liberals 30%, the NDP 16%, the Greens 10% and the BQ 9%. "

    Posted on their site yesterday. I await Eric's diagnosis

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