Thursday, August 26, 2010

Liberals start campaign with lead

Corporate Research Associates has released a timely poll on the first day of the New Brunswick electoral campaign. However, the poll was taken throughout most of August, so this is merely a starting point for us.The Liberals have 41%, up four points from CRA's last poll taken in the last half of May 2010. The Progressive Conservatives have dropped six points to 36%, while the New Democrats are stable at 16%.

The Greens are up one to 6% while the People's Alliance comes in at 1%. This is their first mention in a CRA poll.

The amount of undecideds is huge at 41%. So anything can happen at this point.

With this result, the Liberals would win 33 seats and Shawn Graham would be elected to a second term. The Progressive Conservatives would drop to 20 seats while the New Democrats would win two.

Satisfaction with Graham's government is not high, at only 44%. That is down from 53% a year ago. Dissatisfaction is at 49%, so really the province is split.

As to who would make the best Premier, 29% of New Brunswickers give the nod to Graham. David Alward is not far behind at 22%. Roger Duguay of the NDP is at 8%, Jack MacDougall of the Greens is at 5%, and Kris Austin of the PA is at 3%.

Taking out the none of the above and don't know responses (34% in all), we get 44% for Graham, 33% for Alward, 12% for Duguay, 8% for MacDougall, and 5% for Austin. This indicates that the Liberals, Greens, and People's Alliance have room for growth, while the Progressive Conservatives and New Democrats could be dragged down a little by their leader. However, I wouldn't put much stock into that for the NDP, as those who support the NDP are well aware that Duguay will not be the next Premier.

This new poll bumps the NDP and Greens up 0.8 points in the projection to 12.5% and 2.9%, respectively. The Liberals are dragged down 0.1 to 41.8% while the Progressive Conservatives fall 1.5 points to 42%. As a result, the Liberals pick up two seats from the PCs, who still take the most seats with 27 to the Liberals' 26.

11 comments:

  1. Why are you saying that Graham's Liberals will win 33 seats, when your graphic shows them winning 30?

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  2. Because I made an error in the graphic. Thanks for the correction.

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  3. One thing that strikes me about politics in NB is the fact that there is little in the way of regional patterns of support for the parties. Its not as if the north is always Liberal and the south is always Tory or vice-versa or that one party has a stranglehold on Saint John etc...it seems like both parties win seats all over the province and everything is up for grabs.

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  4. One thing that I have always noticed about all of the polls conducted by Corporate Research Associates, in every province that they poll, is that they always have HUGE number of undecideds. IIRC, that figure has been as high as 50% to 60% in some instances.

    This CRA poll is no exception at 41%.

    Typically the undecided percentage is in the 10% - 20% range with most other pollsters.

    I have always wondered why that is the case!

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  5. DL, it might have something to do with people paying less attention to provincial politics. And with a lot of provincial elections years away (instead of always potentially weeks away at the federal level) perhaps a lot of people don't feel the need to decide.

    And it seems they don't prompt.

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  6. Sorry, that comment was directed to Jonny Quest.

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  7. Its not clear to me whether CRA prompts the party names. I have a feeling that they do since I have trouble believing that the moribund NB Green party would get 6% if people had to spontaneously give their name. It might be worth writing to CRA and asking.

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  8. DL,

    To point out, the Greens federally got 6.2% of the vote in New Brunswick. It's not as crazy as it seems.

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  9. OT:

    The defeat of the Harper Government??


    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/liberals-draft-bill-to-reinstate-mandatory-long-form-census/article1686052/

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  10. Earl I imagine such a bill would need to pass the senate which Harper pretty much controls.

    So he'd probably just ignore such a thing if it passed the HOC.


    Although maybe he does declare it a confidence motion.

    Lately been doing meeting with locals,taking unscripted questions, talking to the media, dancing in the Arctic, and now going on crazy ATV joy rides.

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  11. Week old HD poll:

    http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/breakingnews/summer-tour-boosts-liberal-fortunes-but-not-ignatieffs-poll-suggests-101659398.html

    33-30-??
    from 34-28-15-12-9

    Are they ever slow about getting releases up on their own site tho. :/


    Leadership (now, from May)

    ... Iggy still trails the liberals... while Harper still leads his party.

    Harper
    -5 from -9
    Iggy
    -25 from -26
    Layton
    +14 from +10
    Duceppe
    +32 from +20

    ReplyDelete

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