Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Conservatives and NDP gain as Liberals slip

The Conservatives and New Democrats make modest gains in the newest projection, with the Liberals dropping one seat and half-a-point.The Conservatives remain projected to win 129 seats, while the Liberals are down one to 95. The Bloc Québécois is steady with 53 seats while the New Democrats are up one to 31. But there were changes of seats at the regional level for all pan-Canadian parties.

The Conservatives are now projected to enjoy the support of 34% of Canadians, up 0.2 from the October 22 projection. The Liberals are down 0.5 points to 29%, while the New Democrats are up 0.3 points to 15.6%.

The Bloc is steady at 9.8%, as are the Greens at 8.8%.

The Conservatives have widened their lead in Ontario, gaining 0.3 points and two seats. They now lead in the province with 36.7% and 48 seats. The Liberals are down 0.8 points to 35.3%, and have dropped two seats. They are now projected to win 45. The New Democrats are up 0.2 points to 16.2% and remain unchanged at 13 seats. The Greens are up 0.1 points to 10.1%.

The Bloc is steady in Quebec with 39.3% and 53 seats, followed by the Liberals at 23.4% (down 0.3) and the Conservatives at 16.2% (down 0.5). The New Democrats are steady at 11.9%, while the Greens are up 0.6 points to 7.4%. The Liberals are still projected to win 15 seats, while six would be won by the Conservatives and one by the NDP.

The Conservatives have dropped 0.6 points and one seat in British Columbia, but still lead with 35.2% and 18 seats. The New Democrats have picked up one seat, and are projected to win 10, as well as 26.9% of the vote (up 0.7). The Liberals, with eight seats, stand at 23.4% (down 0.6). The Greens are up 0.3 points to 12.2%.

In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals have gained 0.8 points and lead with 39.1%. The Conservatives have dropped 0.4 points to 31% while the NDP is also down, slipping 0.8 points to 21.6%. The Greens are up 0.3 to 6.4%. The Liberals are projected to win 20 seats here, with eight going to the Conservatives and four to the NDP.

Conservative support in Alberta has declined by 0.6 points, but they still lead with 59.6%. It has cost them a seat, however, and they are now projected to win 27. The Liberals have gained that lost Tory seat, as well as 0.8 points. They now trail with 17.7%. The NDP has dipped by 0.3 points to 10.8%, while the Greens are up 0.2 to 9%.

Finally, the Conservatives have gained a full point in the Prairies, and now lead with 47.3%. The Liberals and New Democrats are tied at 22%, representing a loss of one point for the NDP and a gain of 0.1 points for the Liberals. The Greens are up 0.1 to 6.7%. The Conservatives are projected to win 21 seats here, with four going to the Liberals and three to the NDP.

In terms of net regional gains and losses, the Greens performed best with a net gain of 1.6 points. In the two provinces that really matter for the Greens, though, the party's gains were modest: 0.3 points in British Columbia and 0.1 points in Ontario.

Next best would be the Bloc, who remained steady in Quebec.

Then it would be the Liberals, who suffered a net loss of 0.2 points. Gains in Alberta and Atlantic Canada hardly made up for the party's large losses in Quebec, British Columbia, and Ontario.

The Conservatives had a net loss of 0.8 points, with large dips in Quebec, British Columbia, and Alberta. But widening the gap in Ontario was very important, and the source of their overall national gain.

Finally, the NDP had a net drop of 1.2 points, mostly the fault of the Prairies. A big gain in British Columbia, on the other hand, is good news.

Things are looking relatively stable. The Tories stand to suffer some losses, but their projected caucus still outnumbers the combined totals of the Liberals and New Democrats.


  1. HD released a poll at lunch


    Gap widened 3 points from 2 weeks ago,.. now at 5.

    2 weeks ago:

    It appears the NDP are eating back into liberal support again. And that the "Banging the head against the wall pebble scandal search" is still having very little effect on bringing the tories down.

  2. Barcs its also another poll that shows growth in Toronto of all places!

    I'm assuming that is GTA, so good news for the Vaughan by-election.

    Chantal Hebert was saying the other day that the Liberals are now "the Toronto party".

    If they lose that bastion, well RIP.

  3. Here's the link:

    The top-line numbers are generally consistent with the other pollsters, though I wouldn't want to be a Atlantic grit if the HD numbers in the Atlantic provinces hold true (they probably don't).

  4. I tend to think that the previous HD survey that had only a 2% gap was a bit of an outlier and this now moves HD into the sort of mid-single digit lead we have seen from other pollsters.

  5. http://www.nationalpost.com/news/Harper+best+choice+prime+minister+poll/3765975/story.html

    Ipsos leadership poll out too.

    Iggy is up 3% to 24%... but still trails Harper by about 20%.. And Layton by 10%.

    And only 55% of his own liberal party supporters think he would make the best prime minister.

    And that is the "better"....Ouch


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